MacWorld 2005 Weather Forecast

Discussion in 'Current Events' started by IJ Reilly, Dec 28, 2004.

  1. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #1
    And now, once again, the highly anticipated long-range weather forecast for MacWorld San Francisco. Looks like it's going to be a wet one, folks.

    Monday 10 Jan
    Overcast, showery, breezy, low 45 high 50

    Tuesday 11 Jan
    Overcast, rain PM, breezy, low 45 high 50

    Wednesday 12 Jan
    Overcast, rain AM, clearing PM

    Thursday 13 Jan
    Partly cloudy

    Friday 14 Jan
    No Data​

    Updates as new data becomes available...
     
  2. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
    Jul 16, 2002
    Location:
    Palookaville
    #2
    Latest update is a little drier and colder...

    Monday 10 Jan
    Partly cloudy, showery AM, breezy, low 45 high 50

    Tuesday 11 Jan
    Partly cloudy, showery PM, windy and cooler

    Wednesday 12 Jan
    Mostly clear, breezy and cooler

    Thursday 13 Jan
    Partly cloudy, showery PM, slightly warmer

    Friday 14 Jan
    Overcast, showery and a little warmer​
     
  3. wdlove macrumors P6

    wdlove

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2002
    #3
    The weather forecast sounds good for Apple. There will be no excuse for anyone not wanting to be inside for the week. Hopefully the showers will hold off till everyone can return to their respective hotels. ;)
     
  4. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    Location:
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    #4
    This latest run looks a bit better -- it's still going to be wet, but the timing of the storms is shifting slightly (earlier). If we get lucky, the big rain will come over the weekend, leaving MacWorld week relatively dry.


    Monday 10 Jan
    Mostly clear, low 45 high 50

    Tuesday 11 Jan
    Partly cloudy, showery PM, cooler

    Wednesday 12 Jan
    Overcast, rain AM, breezy and slightly warmer

    Thursday 13 Jan
    Partly cloudy, breezy and cooler

    Friday 14 Jan
    Overcast, showery PM​
     
  5. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    Location:
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    #5
    The long-range models are now showing the big storm ending Monday mid-day, and the rest of the week turning partly cloudy to clear, but cooler than normal, and fairly breezy. This would be an excellent forecast if it holds up, but unless/until it persists through a couple more model runs we shouldn't get our hopes up too high.
     
  6. thejazzman10 Guest

    #6
    wasn't it rainy and dreary there last year too :confused:

    weird...
     
  7. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    #7
    Last year wasn't too bad IIRC. Not much sun but it didn't rain all the time either. A few years ago, I think it was 2002, it poured down the entire week -- cold and windy too. But hey, that's January on the West Coast. It's the rainy season, you know. Considering how wet we've been this year, MW week is actually looking good. At this point, the threat of rain appears to end Monday AM and doesn't return until late Thursday/Friday. Pretty cold and windy, though.
     
  8. AmigoMac macrumors 68020

    AmigoMac

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    l'Allemagne
    #8
    it doesn't matter at all, as long as steve doesn't have to talk with an umbrella... :rolleyes:
     
  9. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    #9
    It hasn't rained inside the Moscone Center yet, so I'm pretty confident we can go with that forecast. As for the weather outside the building, the latest forecast models are continuing to show improvement, so long as you don't mind cold and breezy to windy conditions. The weekend storm still looks good to end by Sunday PM or Monday AM, with no rain the balance of the week.
     
  10. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Palookaville
    #11
    Believe me, "pro pilots" do not use this site or any like it for anything but the most general overall wx picture (they're almost useless in terms of detail, and for anything beyond 3-5 days out). I go directly to the AVN, ETA, GFS and MRF meteorological model outputs and the NWS regional office's forecast discussions. Reading these once or twice a day is necessary if you're interested in having any hope of nailing down a long-range forecast.

    But thanks anyway stu. You're a prince as always. ;)
     
  11. stubeeef macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2004
    #12
    AS a matter of fact nearly every jet pilot I know does, the problem is that faa sources are horrible with precip predictions, as I am sure that you are aware of. In fact when you speak to a faa wx briefer they will tell you that Noaa puts aviation forecasting as a lower priority, infact it is usually the NEW guy/gal that gets the job. I have had numerous discussions with them due to the poor forecasting in my area. A family of 4 died in a small se due to the piss poor forecasting last year, I was in the air at the time, forecast was still calling for VFR and the actualls were 100-1/4. Typical dumba**s forecaster for W NC.
    I use a subscription with universal weather, I also use WSI, local tv wx, as well as services subscibed to by local fbo's, I often call the destination ASOS for the upto the minute weather as well-some flights are less than one hour long, actuall weather then superscedes forecast wx-as you know. Only an idiot would use one service, and use it as gospel. Intellicast was first recommended to me at Flight Safety, I am sure that you have had lots of training there too.
    Intellicast is a fairly reliable when forecasting upto 1 week before hand, depending on the area, I bet SFO is difficult for everyone. As time gets closer they all get better. Your sites may work alot better, but as a pilot I have ones that I use and have been taught by others to use. I would never use intellicast as a single source for weather, but I and almost every Corp pilot I know will include it as a 2nd or 3rd source everytime the look. Therefore it is A source that pro pilots use, and a good one for the not so savvy weather guesser to use. So you are correct that "pro pilots" only use it for general purpose, but use it all the same. Plenty of times Duats or "offical" wx guessers will tell you that it will be low vis, but not ice fog, and places like intellicast fill that void. The guys at the majors may not depend on sites like these, but us six figure, coast to coast corp guys use them to round out our weather picture regularly! Rest Assured!

    What with the prince comment? Care to elaborate?
    Sorry I thought I would help, guess it is not needed, fly on.......
    I am sure that you know as much about professional flying as I do about your work.

    link to links!

    From the intellicast website.......
     
  12. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Palookaville
    #13
    I use the flight service station weather briefers and DUATS, but mainly because I have to in order to be "properly" briefed according to the FARs, and not because they give very good or useful weather briefings. For one thing, the briefers are not meteorologists -- they pretty much just read what's put in front of them. They will do little analysis or interpretation of any kind (I've even tried begging).

    Here's a trick I've learned: If you ever get really stuck on the horns of a flying dilemma, try calling the local NWS office and asking for the aviation desk. If you get through, you'll be talking to an actual meteorologist. They can be very helpful. I have never met a single other pilot who knows they can do this.

    As for Intellicast, they're simply digesting the NWS forecasts, just like the Weather Channel and a hundred others do. So I go straight to the source. And what exactly does "partly cloudy" mean for flying conditions? Is that a ceiling, and if so, at what altitude? What are the forecasted visibility and wind conditions? What are the trends? A person could get themselves it a whole lot of trouble using Intellicast to make an aviation decision. That's my opinion, FWIW.

    Did you know that you can find all the raw data that's used to produce TAFs online? And you can find it for stations that don't even get official TAFs (for reasons known only to the FAA). Not everybody is a major weather bug like me, but it's worth every pilot's time to learn how to read those tables, IMO.

    You seemed to me to be telling people to ignore what I was telling them and read Intellicast instead.
     
  13. stubeeef macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

    Joined:
    Aug 10, 2004
    #14
    Not ignore, but it is used by pro pilots as PART of a wx pic.
     
  14. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #15
    For the less-serious user (like myself) I check my local forecast at The Weather Underground . Sure it's no better forecast-wise than the Weather Channel, but the satellite pictures are better, and there is a network of personal weather stations that you can look through if you are interested.
     
  15. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Palookaville
    #16
    Granted I'm at least a little obsessive about these things, but I keep track of the GFS, which is the only 16-day forecast model available, to my knowledge. It's also presented as a meteogram, which helps with visualization. This is how I was able to get a pretty good handle on the forecast for the entire week of MacWorld nearly a week ago.

    Still looking about the same BTW: rain ending by Monday PM and not coming back until possibly the end of the week. Maybe even some sun Tuesday-Wednesday.
     
  16. IJ Reilly thread starter macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Palookaville
    #17
    Trends still holding, more or less... rain ending by noon on Monday, and rapid clearing thereafter. Some showers may persist into Tuesday -- this seems to be the only unresolved issue in the forecast models. The rest of the week in San Francisco looks mostly sunny and dry, but cold and windy, especially Thursday. Looks like the high temps may not break out of the upper 40s/low 50s.
     

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