Make me feel better about buying Apple stock.

Discussion in 'General Mac Discussion' started by johnbro23, Nov 5, 2004.

  1. johnbro23 macrumors 6502a

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    Pittsburgh, PA
    #1
    I told my mom I wanted some Apple stock a few months ago, when it was $26 a share. I reminded her a few times, but she eventually forgot about it. Then I kept seeing it going up and up, $35, $45, and now almost $55. I finally couldn't take it anymore, so I made my mom buy me some stock today. I got 50 shares, so thats $2750. But all I'm thinking at this point is that that could have been $5500. Ugh. So tell me something good. (but if theres something bad to say, say it too)

    By the way, its not like my mom just gave me all that money. I have a job and most of that is my money. Thats why I'm so pissed she didn't buy it when I told her to.
     
  2. Duff-Man macrumors 68030

    Duff-Man

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    #2
    Duff-Man says...well, you can just hope that the stock continues to rise. Are you in for the "long haul", just looking to make a few quick $$, or do you just like the idea of owning a piece of Apple? Perhaps the next time you get a similar idea it'd be best to use a *real* broker instead of mom - doesn't sound like she'd last more than 30 seconds on Wall St....heheheh.....oh yeah!
     
  3. johnbro23 thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #3
    I'm in it for about 2 years. I don't know if thats considered the long haul or not.

    My mom did buy the stock through a stock broker.

    And it does feel good to own a peice of Apple.

    So do you think it will go up? It seems like a lot of my friends are buying Macs and the iPods are selling great. It sounds good, but it sort of makes me sick that my money could have been more than doubled already.
     
  4. Calvinatir macrumors 6502

    Calvinatir

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    #4
    i bought about two weeks ago when it was at 47....so i've had nice gains for the last 2 weeks..heh
     
  5. Duff-Man macrumors 68030

    Duff-Man

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    #5
    Duff-Man says...yeah, it must be frustrating to know you could have almost doubled your money if mom hadn't delayed so much. Stocks do tend to rise, unless of course the company itself tanks completely. Other factors can affect stock prices as well - the tech market was in a funk and then 9/11 happened...it is so hard to predict all the variables. 2 years...hmm...I am not a stock expert (except to say...buy Duff, buy Duff!) but I would think that you are not likely to lose money. Bottom line is though, unless you sell near-term when the stock rises even just a bit you'll never know for sure...oh yeah!
     
  6. johnbro23 thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #6
    Yea, I saw that right around 9/11, it went way down real quick. It was down to 15 or so for a while. Well lets just hope nothing like that happens again. Isn't bush supposed to be tougher on terror? Well lets hope so.
     
  7. QCassidy352 macrumors G3

    QCassidy352

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Bay Area
    #7
    I'm not so sure apple is going to go much higher... the graph looks ok, but it's already at it's target price... I think this isn't the best time to buy, sorry to say. Although, I would have said that when it was at $45, too, and now it's climbed almost $10 from that, so what do I know...
     
  8. MacBandit macrumors 604

    MacBandit

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2002
    Location:
    Springfield, OR (Home of the Simpsons)
    #8
    Apple stock is a dangerous commodity at the moment to buy new shares in. If you have existing shares and plan on holding on for the next 6 years or so then you are probably safe. Many analysts are saying that the stock is over inflated and due to fall. I tend to agree. I don't think it will fall very fall but it's been growing to fast and needs drop before it balances out at a sustainable level.
     
  9. Jaz macrumors regular

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    Sep 7, 2004
    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    #9
    The stock has had a strong run up this year and when it's been pumped up like that, expectations also rise.

    Apple MUST sell 2.5 to 3 million iPods for the holiday quarter to meet expectations or the stock will get pummeled. That represents a 25-50% increase for the quarter.

    The reason to focus on the iPod is that it is the success story that analysts focus on at the moment. To them Apple is a marginal computer player, and even though it is financially solid it is not seen as a growth company other than the new digital music and player segments. That's why they were made a separate division at Apple.

    If you're in for several years then get used to ups and downs. If this is a six month play then you might not be so happy as the next quarter will be interesting.

    I'm not a broker or equities analyst, just an experience investor. For the record I do own Apple stock, bought at $19 when I thought it was undervalued. I might profit take a little at the moment but would otherwise hold, but there are many Buy ratings too. The general consensus is from Hold to Outperform. Few if any Sell or Underperform ratings. Read up and let's hope it all stays good :)

    http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ao?s=AAPL
     
  10. johnbro23 thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #10
    Interesting.. thanks. I'm definitely in this for more than 6 months. I'd say at least 18 months, maybe more. I'm scared that you're right, that Apples expectations are going to rise. But I can't see anything that would slow Apple down. All I've seen is good news on MR and SM and all those sites. That new article in Consumer Reports, for example, can only help.
     
  11. Will Curran macrumors regular

    Will Curran

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  12. johnbro23 thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #12
    Haha, are you joking? I guess I could understand, because the symbol for it is AAPL. Kinda weird because of the extra A.
     
  13. applekid macrumors 68020

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    #13
    This year has shown Apple's highest stock prices ever. And in all honesty, the only thing I can say that may be reassuring is Apple could go higher now, if they meet expectations and keep this momentum going. Oh, and I envy you for holding 50 shares compared to my 2 shares. :D

    I bought my shares at 17 bucks a pop through E*Trade. After all of the fees, I regret buying only two shares especially at how high the prices are now. In all honesty, I'm about ready to sell because I think this is where Apple can bust quite easily. If I read reports of some good sales this holiday season, I may stick around for the 3 GHz G5s ;)
     
  14. johnbro23 thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #14
    All your comments make me uneasy about buying this stock now. I'm definitely not going to sell, but its just eating away at me that I could have had $2500 in my pocket for just buying earlier. Ugh. This is really pissing me off.
     
  15. Koodauw macrumors 68040

    Koodauw

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    Nov 17, 2003
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    Madison
    #15
    Seriously, buying a stock when its at an all time high. Prob not the best of Ideas.

    Buy low, Sell high. Basic rule.

    You bought high, very high. I just hope it goes up in your case. For a period of 2 years though.... your prob gonna lose some money.
     
  16. Natalia81 macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Aug 7, 2004
    #16
    A few months ago, I was deciding between Microsoft and Apple stock. MSFT was at about $26 and AAPL at $31. Well, unfortunately I chose MSFT because it had a dividend and heard rumors of them doing something with all their cash (ended up doubling dividends and the $3 one time dividend). As you all know, it seemed like a good decision at the time, but now not so much, since AAPL is up more than $20. But right now, I'm considering buying AAPL, which has dropped the last two days, but I'm gonna wait til it drops a little more before I do anything.
     
  17. madmaxmedia macrumors 68030

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    Dec 17, 2003
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    Los Angeles, CA
    #17
    There's a million different ways to look at Apple stock, each with a different valuation of the stock. I'll spell out 3 different scenarios, and the original poster can decide which he thinks will happen-

    1. (Worst Case) Apple has hit a ceiling with iPod sales, so after 1 or 2 more decent quarterly earnings reports, the stock no longer is a Wall Street darling. On top of that, Apple isn't able to make any kind of budge in PC marketshare, giving investors even more reasons to give Apple the cold shoulder. Apple drops to the thirties by mid-2005, and mid to long term prospects for the stock are very flat..

    2. (Optimistic But Quite Possible and Perhaps Even Probable) Long-term prospects and strategy are still questionable, but in the short term people still cannot get enough iPods, and Apple continues to sell as many as they make for the next couple of quarters. Although the Street is expecting good numbers, Apple is conservative enough in their guidance numbers that they still deliver a great earnings report next quarter, sending Apple stock into the mid 60's. On top of that, Apple has great debut sales of the G5 iMac (not only is it a great new model, but there was a lot of pent-up demand after no G4 iMac sales for 2 months.) On top of that, G5 supply problems are finally taken care of by IBM, further increasing Apple sales this quarter. Then at MacWorld in January, Steven Jobs announces the G5 Powerbook, shipping within the quarter. This sends the stock even higher, as the Street knows that notebook sales are one of Apple's strengths, and a G5 notebook will drive a lot of upgrade sales and create some new customers as well.

    So there's a lot of great news that represent tactical wins for Apple, in terms of driving Apple sales and profit. The long run is still in doubt (as always), but in the short term the stock continues to climb, and anyone that is already in can place a stop order to lock in profits.

    3. (Best Case) All this talk of the 'halo effect' actually comes true. Out of 100 Windows users, 14 or 15 walk into an Apple store to check out iPods and see what the iMac hubbub is about, and 2 or 3 actually decide to "switch". Although this is a relatively miniscule percentage of total Windows users, Apple's market share goes from about 3% to about 4-4.5% in the USA. This is a blip in the overall scheme of things, but means at least 35% increase in Apple computer sales, and 50% greater net profits. Apple takes advantage of this momentum, and finally creates a marketing campaign that really speaks to Windows users, and finally creating some true momentum for the Apple platform. iPod sales are still appreciated by investors, but the real buzz is now centered around the Mac, which is the "new iPod".



    Depending on which scenario you think will occur, Apple is either 1) grossly overvalued and ready for a fall, 2) priced about right for a momentum stock, with still some room for growth in the next couple of quarters, or 3) even now a buying opportunity if you believe in the Mac.

    Some may consider scenario #3 impossible or highly improbable, but I think it's at least a tantalizing possibility/ opportunity (and part of the reason why the stock is so high now.) I bought at $34 literally the day before the G5 iMac introduction, and am pretty confident that I will be holding for at least 3 more months (meaning that the stock will continue to rise during that time, albeit more slowly.)
     
  18. Rod Rod macrumors 68020

    Rod Rod

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    Las Vegas, NV
    #18
    AAPL All Time High

    applekid and Koodauw: AAPL is not trading at its all-time high. It's lately been hitting 52-week highs.

    AAPL's all-time high was $144.20, back on March 22, 2000. There was a 2:1 split in June 2000, so adjusting for that makes it $72.10.

    Compare that to Wednesday, November 3rd's $55.31. The $56.11 you may have read about was intra-day. It's the closing price that counts.

    The all-time high period started in late 1998 with the original iMac. Before iMac, AAPL was worth about $8 a share. Soon after iMac, it shot up to the $110 neighborhood, and climbed pretty steadily to its all-time high.

    johnbro23, you made a great move. I know how you feel though. I should have bought Yahoo stock instead of starting a car lease, back at the end of 1997. With the money I could have made, I'd have paid off a Viper in cash. But instead I drive an Oldsmobile. :) I suppose the lesson might have something to do with delayed gratification.
     
  19. rdowns Suspended

    rdowns

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    Jul 11, 2003
    #19
    On some items there is. Many have a long lead time before delivery. :eek:
     
  20. Jaz macrumors regular

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    Location:
    Sydney, Australia
    #20
    Follow up from my previous message.

    From Think Secret, emphasis added.

    If Apple hits 4m ipods for the quarter, I'd peg the stock at $68.50 by next Feb.
     
  21. jeremy.king macrumors 603

    jeremy.king

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    #21
    Not sure putting all your eggs in one basket (i.e. Apple) is a great idea. Any sure minded investor would diversify - but since I am no financial expert, I won't criticize your decision...Just hope for the best.

    Now, my real thought/question. Anyone think Sirius (SIRI) will perform like XM Radio (XMSR). Check out the 2 year on XM. If Sirius has anything like that, many people who get in now will be quite happy in 2 years. XM too seems to have an upside with their new "wearable" receiver...

    No I don't work for Sirius, I just like to follow "emerging" technology stocks.
     
  22. Darbydoggy macrumors newbie

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    Aug 29, 2004
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    California
    #22
    My basic financial review is that the iPod is easily worth $40 per share in earnings support and Apple has about $10 per share in cash, so even without the computer business (which is escalating do to people coming over from iPods) there is a solid $50 per share support just from a valuation standpoint. Add the computers and Steve Jobs' genius and the stock could easily rise over $60 and beyond. I don't own any and my advice is worthless (there is my disclaimer).
     
  23. madmaxmedia macrumors 68030

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    Los Angeles, CA
    #23
    Could you give us some details on your valuation of the iPod at $40? I guess I could do it myself, looking at sales, earnings, growth, etc. But I figured you probably already did the calculations. Thanks!

     
  24. madmaxmedia macrumors 68030

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    #24
    Until recently they seemed like the late version of XM Radio. But they have gone on a tear with the recent announcements regarding deals with carmakers (Ford and GM?)Howard Stern, and some sports deals as well (NFL?)

    If their valuation right now is low compared to XM (market cap/ suscribers), I think they might be a good opportunity. OTOH, I'm personally not interested in paying $10 a month for satellite radio, and not sure what overall market size these 2 companies will achieve. Between cable, Tivo, broadband, cell phone, landline phone, Netflix, etc...how many different monthly bills can we have?
     
  25. beatle888 macrumors 68000

    beatle888

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    #25


    before you take that advice read here....http://www.investors.com/yahoofinance/2004w42/slideA07.asp



    Time to throw out one of Wall Street's most famous sayings: buy low, sell high. Studies of the most successful stocks show they began their biggest price gains when they made a new high or were close to one. Sure, it's psychologically tough to get into a stock that has already gone up 30%, 50% or more. But research shows stocks clearing proper price consolidation areas in their charts do indeed go on to greater heights, provided the company has leadership characteristics.

    • Studies show the greatest market winners begin their big moves from or new new price highs, as they emerge from sound consolidation patterns.



    • Stocks that make new highs tend to go higher.



    • Stocks at new highs aren't subject to the concept of overhead supply. Overhead supply exists when a stock tries to climb back off a recent low. As the stock works its way higher, it faces selling pressure from investors who bought earlier at a higher price. When the stock gets back to their purchase price, they sell to break even.






    To Capture Top Growth Stocks, Be Willing To Buy High
    Sure, successful textbook value investors plumb the new lows list. They hunt for solid companies whose shares have been crushed like grapes. Then they buy low and hold until the company gets back on its feet and the financial community welcomes back the stock.*

    Top growth investors, in contrast, find and buy companies with superior earnings and revenue growth. These firms must have industry-leading products, strong profit margins and high return on equity. These investors are willing to pay a premium for excellence.



    if all this is turning your stomach you might want to put all this in perspective.....AND you may want to consider leaving your investment untouched till your older (assuming your a teen). if your under twenty and investing NOW you are WAY AHEAD OF THE GAME :cool: . im jealous. leave your stock alone.....INVEST MORE in other companies. try some companies that have been around for decades. chances are they will rise and fall but that shouldnt concern you to much until your ready to sell. you can invest in slow steady growth companies for the long haul land some earth shakers for quick profits then turn around and invest that profit into your long haulers. read as much as you can and dont listen to just one school. you are so lucky. even if you just invest a grand in a steady climber, by the time your thirty/fourty you'll be so much better off.

    quit belly aching and be glad you see the value of investing while time is on your side, cause when it comes down to it, its better to invest time then money. your better off investing a grand at eighteen then you are investing 15 grand at thirty.
     

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