Make me feel better about buying Apple stock.

[Macmaniac]

My history with Apple stock is a long one. My dad bought it way back when the indigo iMacs were hitting the scene. The stock hit $144 in 2000 like a previous poster mentioned, we did not sell(foolish us) although thanks to the stock split that helped a bit. For the next 4 years we watched AAPL float around $20 for a while and recently when it hit $54 we decided to sell, we were in it for the long haul, but in the end we doubled our initial investment. I'm wary of how much higher AAPL will go, maybe $60 or $65 max, but I'm not an analyst.

 

[ChrisFromCanada]

I made an awesome short term gain from this. I told our broker to buy about a month ago when it was $38. So I have gained about 1.5x the money invested and it only took one month.

 

[johnbro23]

Not sure putting all your eggs in one basket (i.e. Apple) is a great idea. Any sure minded investor would diversify - but since I am no financial expert, I won't criticize your decision...Just hope for the best.

I just opened a $5000 CD at the bank today. I was thinking ahead on the not all my eggs in one basket thing. I've had this money sitting around making 1% interest in my regular savings account for too long and I decided to do something about it. I think I'm making a good decision. After all, I am only a Junior in high school, and I'm just saving up for college, and maybe beyond that. So, I'd say I'm guarnteed not to be hurt too much if Apple shares do drop a lot.

 

[johnbro23]

if all this is turning your stomach you might want to put all this in perspective.....AND you may want to consider leaving your investment untouched till your older (assuming your a teen). if your under twenty and investing NOW you are WAY AHEAD OF THE GAME . im jealous. leave your stock alone.....INVEST MORE in other companies. try some companies that have been around for decades. chances are they will rise and fall but that shouldnt concern you to much until your ready to sell. you can invest in slow steady growth companies for the long haul land some earth shakers for quick profits then turn around and invest that profit into your long haulers. read as much as you can and dont listen to just one school. you are so lucky. even if you just invest a grand in a steady climber, by the time your thirty/fourty you'll be so much better off.

quit belly aching and be glad you see the value of investing while time is on your side, cause when it comes down to it, its better to invest time then money. your better off investing a grand at eighteen then you are investing 15 grand at thirty.

Thanks for the advice. I feel a lot better today than I did on Friday.

 

[paulypants]

I was going to buy a lot when it was a little over 11$ a share about 18mnths ago, but i didn't---i am an idiot.

 

[rdowns]

Not sure putting all your eggs in one basket (i.e. Apple) is a great idea. Any sure minded investor would diversify - but since I am no financial expert, I won't criticize your decision...Just hope for the best.

Now, my real thought/question. Anyone think Sirius (SIRI) will perform like XM Radio (XMSR). Check out the 2 year on XM. If Sirius has anything like that, many people who get in now will be quite happy in 2 years. XM too seems to have an upside with their new "wearable" receiver...

No I don't work for Sirius, I just like to follow "emerging" technology stocks.

I watched and researched both closely and bought XM. They have established contracts with a bunch of car manufacturers, Sirius does not (some may have just been announced IIRC). I think cars are where satellite radio growth will come.

I did buy a $1,000 worth of Sirius on a rumor from a Wall Street friend. The rumor, signing Howard Stern.

 

[dongmin]

Some of my observations about the Apple stock:

1. Some analysts are targeting $65.

2. Apple WILL sell more than 2.5 ipods. They sold 2 mil in a non-Xmas quarter. With the new ipod offerings, ipod sales should blow people away, in terms of units and total $$$.

3. The stock price will be driven up right up to the next quarterly statement. Then, it'll tank, as it always does. Sell before the statement. If it hits anywhere near $70 before then, I'd sell. But that's just one man's opinion.

4. Apple will do really well this quarter. I was at an Apple store the other day. The new iMacs are FLYING off the shelves. Along with iBooks, I foresee a huge gain in terms of unit shipment.

5. One can argue that the current stock price already reflects this rosy outlook for the quarter. (Econ 101 lesson regarding stocks: stock prices reflect future performance of a company, not the current performance. That's why you often find stock prices plummet after a company posts a strong performance. It's all about growth potential, baby.) But there's a kind of euphoria over the ipod which should drive up the price even further. But again, this is just one man's opinion.

6. My guess is that Apple has a lot up its sleeves in terms of the iPod. It's one arena where Apple is not resting on their laurels and not so dependent on third-parties (like IBM & Moto with their CPUs). As soon as the demand starts to slack a bit, I see Apple getting aggressive with the pricing (e.g. Minis going down to $199) and introducing new lines (flash iPods). So if you argue that the iPod is the primary driver of Apple's stock, then I see more growth ahead.

 

[johnbro23]

3. The stock price will be driven up right up to the next quarterly statement. Then, it'll tank, as it always does. Sell before the statement. If it hits anywhere near $70 before then, I'd sell. But that's just one man's opinion.

So when exactly is that quarterly statement? Beginning of January?


Also, theres some news on the MR homepage about the projected stock value. Thats looking good.

 

[applekid]

So when exactly is that quarterly statement? Beginning of January?


Also, theres some news on the MR homepage about the projected stock value. Thats looking good.

Yes, good news indeed, for any kind of Apple stock holder. I may have to stick around a little longer.

 

[Hoef]

Yeah if you are in for the long haul .... just wait I think the stock is overweight right now. My AAPL target was $50 which it passed .... I am not selling yet but have a hard time believing it will be $65.

 

[madmaxmedia]

3. The stock price will be driven up right up to the next quarterly statement. Then, it'll tank, as it always does. Sell before the statement. If it hits anywhere near $70 before then, I'd sell. But that's just one man's opinion.

It went up after the last quarterly report (it increased from around 40 to 45 I think). And if they sell more than 3 million iPods, their next quarterly report should surprise and move the stock up when it comes out.

(unless there are some huge whisper numbers before the report comes out.)

 

[johnbro23]

Up 10% today! I just made $250. According to this, the target was raised to $100. Wow.

How could this happen? Maybe because of the 6% of iPod owners that switched (me including).

 

[madmaxmedia]

Make me feel better about buying Apple stock

There, do you feel better?

Up 10% today! I just made $250. According to this, the target was raised to $100. Wow.

How could this happen? Maybe because of the 6% of iPod owners that switched (me including).

The Piper Jaffray analyst took some poll numbers (the 6% you referred to), to try to estimate Apple's outlook over the next couple of years. The interesting thing is that he actually cut the poll numbers in half to be conservative. Meaning if 6% of respondents said they were going to switch (don't have the exact info on me right now), then he used 3% as the gain in new Mac users.

Also, any time a big company/ analyst sets a higher target price, that alone will drive up the stock. That was a big deal during the internet boom, especially when analysts and their companies profited from the stock gains. But I think the market is a lot more cognizant of this now, and takes the reports with a grain of salt.

It doesn't take a very high percentage of iPod owners to buy Macs, to dramatically increase Mac market share. We'll see how it goes. I do believe that Apple stock will be higher by year-end than it is now. At the very least, your relatively 'high' purchase is now solidly in the black!

You could place a stop-loss order to automatically sell if the stock goes back down to a certain price point (let's say $58.) This way you won't lose money pretty much no matter what. If you're really long on Apple though and are in it for the long-term, then don't bother.

 

[johnbro23]

Yea, I'm not going to bother selling it anytime soon. I have faith in Apple. They have so much going for them. Plus, I was always a beleiver that the iPod made some people switch, obviosly because that happened to me. Good job Apple, keep it up

 

[Hoef]

Yeah if you are in for the long haul .... just wait I think the stock is overweight right now. My AAPL target was $50 which it passed .... I am not selling yet but have a hard time believing it will be $65.

My famous last words buy, buy, buy!

 

[wyatt]

I think it's an OK time to buy but your timing could have been a little better. The stock is definitely going to go lower before it gets much higher at this point. I'm assuming the stock is in your mom's name right? Don't forget about short-term capital gains taxes, which will be much higher since it is your mom and not you. If you want to avoid this, hold it for over a year and the taxes will go down. Either way, you don't have much invested and it won't be that big of an impact but keep it in the back of your mind.

 

[Hoef]

I think it's an OK time to buy but your timing could have been a little better.

I was being sarcastic .... since I targeted $45, told everyone that $65 was unlikely. Do not take my advice.