More good economic news

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by g5man, Nov 6, 2003.

  1. g5man macrumors newbie

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  2. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #2
    good news indeed, that only some 350,000 people applied for unemployment.

    that's more people than live in cincinnati.

    here's a major problem w/ the job market: manufacturing and high-tech jobs are going overseas like crazy. what is being done to reverse that? the fed has only a single point of wiggle room for the overnight rate.
     
  3. g5man thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #3
    zimv20

    You do realize that people are laid off every month in bad and good economies.

    Some of the jobs that are leaving the country will not be brought back. Consumers demand cheap products so manufactures have to save money in producing those products by going where the labor is cheaper.


    The data in the report continues to point to a strong healthy economy in the coming months.
     
  4. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #4
    of course. and i also realize that the 348k figure isn't a net. the article points to this as good news. i read it as: the very high unemployment numbers changed to a little less than very high.

    i'm not at all convinced there is any good economic news; it's a little early to tell. i would agree that the news is 'less ****ty'.

    the reason has more to do w/ simple cost to the consumer, imo. the US tax laws are set up to encourage US firms to manufacture overseas. recently, the administration floated an idea -- not to close those loopholes -- but to increase them to stimulate the manufacturing sector (there was a thread on it).

    i'm very skeptical that sending more manufacturing jobs overseas will help the US economy much.
     
  5. g5man thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #5
    Ok then please tell me when you are ready to say that the news is good.

    What are you looking for in the data that would make you believe that the economy is growing?
     
  6. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #6
    i don't deny that there are aspects of the economy that are growing. it's always doing one thing or another, in a local min/max sort of way.

    things i look at (in no particular order):
    1. unemployment trends
    2. welfare rolls
    3. crime
    4. market indeces
    5. my portfolio
    6. net job numbers
    7. budget deficit/surplus
    8. trade deficit
    9. national debt
    10. health of social programs
    11. theater attendance
    12. # of senior citizens working fast-food jobs
    13. consumer debt
    14. interest rates
    15. DOL productivity numbers
    16. # americans below poverty line
    17. # of uninsured americans
    18. unemployment rate
    19. state budgets
    20. GDP
    21. inflation
    22. how much my grandma complains
    23. # of allowed H1-B visas
    24. foreign students staying in US post-graduation, curve slope thereof
     
  7. g5man thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #7
  8. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #8
    it's less about numbers and more about trends.

    but here's a few numbers:
    1. let's see the DOW hit 12k again, soon
    2. i remember the h1-b visa count getting close to 200k, i think it's under 70k now
    3. unemployment rate below 5, for starters
    4. interest rates for 30 yr. fixed mortgage back to the 8 or 9 range
    5. state budgets - no more than 10 facing critical shortfalls
    6. crime - chicago murders under 500/yr
    7. my theater - 50+% attendance 3 of 4 nights
    8. net job numbers > 0

    as for being hard to please, once half of my indicators are trending 'the correct way', then i'll feel better about the economy.

    edit:
    right now, only a couple are trending the correct way. that's why, when only one or two indicators (i.e. productivity numbers and quarterly GDP) are factored out and used to quantify the economy as a whole, i'm skeptical.
     
  9. g5man thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #9
    I don't think we will see any of those numbers anytime soon.

    Why are you so concerned with theater attendance?
     
  10. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #10
    which is why i'm not celebrating any sort of economic recovery right now.

    i'm a member of a small theater company. our attendance plummeted after 9/11 (same w/ every other small theater in chicago) and it's just never recovered (though we create and run critically acclaimed shows).

    it's all we can do to keep from closing our doors. all the theaters are waiting for the economy to pick up.

    on a side note, the Cubs being in the playoffs _really_ hurt us. all the theaters in the neighborhood (we're less than a mile from Wrigley Field) had to cancel shows left and right. ouch.
     
  11. g5man thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #11
    Ok Now I understand. I thought you were talking about a movie theater.

    I think attendance is down because competition is strong and less people attend live preformance.

    This weekend I will go see that Circus Del Sol or whatever the name is.
     
  12. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #12
    that's a longtime trend, yes, and it's sad, 'cuz there's a lot of cool stuff happening in live theater.

    there remains a sizable group of people who make an effort to see theater. it's within this group that the economy, imo, has had an effect.

    regarding my Cubs comment, it's not that we attract a lot of Cubs fans, it's more that the neighborhood is a nightmare to come to during a game. it's also a Th, Fr, Sat night party zone. add a playoff game on top of that (where there were as many fans crowded around the field as there were inside), and people were scared off. *I* sure didn't feel like heading down there to do a show (but i had to :)

    the chicago tribune did an article about how area businesses were suffering from the cubs, tv-less bars and restaurants included.

    anyway, now that baseball's over, we've seen a return to pre-playoff levels, but still not year 2000 levels.
     
  13. Taft macrumors 65816

    Taft

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    #13
    What theatre do you work for? I just saw Anna in the Tropics at the Victory Gardens Theatre. Any connection?

    Taft
     
  14. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #14
    WNEP theater (as a company member, not technically "working for")

    i've taken classes at VG, and have a couple friends who just finished a production there, but no official connection.

    edit: wow, i'm a dope. i'd forgotten i did some sound design for samuel beckett's 'Krapp's Last Tape,' which just did a short run at VG for the Chicago Humanities Festival.
     
  15. Taft macrumors 65816

    Taft

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    #15
    I've been past there a million times, but never saw a show there. Thats up on Halsted north of Belmont, right?

    Any good productions currently going on, coming up?

    (BTW, sorry to hijack the thread. Returning to topic shortly. :) )

    Taft
     
  16. g5man thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #16
    Actually you are becoming part of the topic. If you attend the theater as a result of this thread you will contribute to the wellbeing of zimv20.
     
  17. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #17
    :)
     
  18. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #18
    that's the location, yes.

    we just closed the Vladmir Dracula Comedy Showcase and Variety Hour, which was the funniest show i've ever worked on. i was a co-writer and an actor in it.

    but we extended our mainstage WWII drama, Let There Be Light...!, which got a highly recommended from the Reader and a critic's pick from the Trib. i did sound design for it (and got my name in the Trib review! :) you should definitely check it out.

    link
     
  19. g5man thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #19
  20. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #20
    Indeed the economy is looking up. A couple of points though, first the largest increase was in the service sector, (143,000 jobs, which means if there was a net gain of only 126,000 jobs, that many other well-paying jobs were lost if I read the report right) typically low paying jobs without good benefits. Second, manufacturing continues to shed jobs, although the hemmoraging is slowing. Third, 13,000 of those jobs were scabs hired to replace striking grocery workers.

    Plus we are heading into the holiday retail season when stores traditionally beef up their temp workers who are then let go as soon as the holidays are over.

    I am optimistic (I need to find a job SOON) but still cautious about predicting a complete recovery yet, and I am not very happy with the quality of the jobs we are gaining.
     
  21. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

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    #22
    They do? That's a bit of a funny logic connection there, sanfelipe.

    Do they work by

    1) destroying the economy, gutting all the high-paying blue collar jobs, weakening the dollar, causing states to go bankrupt and cut vital services and, overall, help the rich while punishing the middle and lower classes all while throwing the nation into the largest defecit in history

    then

    2) give us modest employment and GDP growth every now and again.

    Wow, that sounds like tax cuts working all right! How do we get more of that good stuff!?
     
  22. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #23
    from the AZ Central article:
    taken in context of several years of piss-poor performance, the net may not be so impressive.

    i have a friend who just got a 5% raise. it's the job he got last year when, in desperation, he took a 40% pay cut.
     
  23. Frohickey macrumors 6502a

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    #24
    If the feds do not touch the H1B visa cap of 65,000, or if they scale that back even further, to zero, it would help greatly.
     
  24. Frohickey macrumors 6502a

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    #25
    How are you going to get labor to be cheaper when every other word from politicos is that they need to raise the minimum wage, or that businesses need to offer a 'living wage'?
     

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