My predictions for the future

Discussion in 'Community' started by NusuniAdmin, Apr 10, 2004.

  1. NusuniAdmin macrumors 6502a


    Nov 19, 2003
    I predict that in 1-10 years gateway will go out of buisness.

    I predicted that in 10-20 years HP will stop making computers.

    I predict in 5-12 years IBM will bring forth a 128 bit powerpc processor

    And finally I predict apple's US marketshare for computing will hit 10-12% and will remain there, in many,many years, lol.

    I would say these are "ok" predictions, most likely wont come true though. I have a good feeling apple will bring the first 128 bit processor to personal computing, and then the first 256 bit processor to the pc world as well. Can you guys just imagen that, in 30 years loggin into applerumors and seeing on the home page, "256 bit powermac has come true. Apple has introduced the first 256 bit personal computer running at speeds of up to 1 terahertz." lol
  2. jefhatfield Retired


    Jul 9, 2000
    i love high tech predictions and the stuff i read in computer mags...i remember seeing covers that said, windows 97 and office 96 in anticipation for major releases from microsoft

    the worst predictions i have seen are from engineers and computer scientists on the bleeding edge...they are so used to being top dog that their egos make them think that nobody will catch or surpass them or that the prices on their cutting edge stuff will never ever be discounted that much at the computer store ;)

    i have a cs phd friend who received of the first phd's in computer science in this the time, it was not too unusual to have a decent grasp on everything in the programming world...he still thinks one can know everything about programming so when i ask him questions about this language or that language, he doesn't know what i am talking about and doesn't have a clue how big the field has become

    one major computer on the pc side was the, cheap and reliable and a real standby in schools and business...many in the field thought that was it...the perfect computer which will last 20 years or more for the user...i met so many well informed techies who thought they would not have to ever go to the computer store again or at least would not ever see a workable computer cheaper than two or three grand ;)

    at the same time, i will talk to people who know very little about the field and they will almost always predict faster machines at cheaper prices, like it has been for many years, and they are always right on the money
  3. TimDaddy macrumors 6502

    Mar 13, 2002
    Versailles, KY (and that's pronounced Vurr-sales)
    I remember when my dad upgraded from the Commodore 64 to a Commodore 128, along with some type of faster 5.25" floppy drive. My mom wasn't very pleased, she felt the money could be better spen elsewhere. He said "You just don't understand computers. Once we have this, we will NEVER need to spend money on another computer. This will last the rest of our lives!" I sold it a few years ago at a yard sale for around $3.
  4. miloblithe macrumors 68020


    Nov 14, 2003
    Washington, DC
    But at some point don't there have to be physical limits to how much computers can speed up? I realize there are a lot of components and a lot of features that can be added and I don't really foresee a major change in the general cycle of computers becoming outdated in 3-5 years depending on your point of view. But, take shrinking processors. We're at 90nm now right? How low can we really go?

    Still, there are probably decades of the current pattern ahead of us.
  5. NusuniAdmin thread starter macrumors 6502a


    Nov 19, 2003
    I am sure theres some race/species somewhere with 2 NM microcomputers that with 1 NM hard drive thingies. lol.
  6. voicegy macrumors 65816


    Jan 1, 2002
    Sandy Eggo - MacRumors Member since 1-1-2002
    Rats, what a tease! Went to the link in your "signature"...nothin' there. :(
  7. Benjamin macrumors 6502a


    Oct 27, 2003
    Portland, OR
    I have higher hopes.... optical computer from ibm. and MRAM taking its place.
  8. NusuniAdmin thread starter macrumors 6502a


    Nov 19, 2003
    yes there is, right click or control + click on one of the links and select download to disk.
  9. MorganX macrumors 6502a


    Jan 20, 2003
    My prediction, Apple #1 in PCs in 5 years or less with a catch

    Apple will get out of the software business and become a hardware company.

    They will become the dominant desktop in homes and corporate America running Longhorn which begins in Xbox 2. Apple will then buy Sun and put Gateway out of buisness, demote HP, and threaten to destroy Dell.

    X86 will live, also running Longhorn, but IBM opening the PPC platform will significantly reduce Intel's marketshare and influence. It will be an Apple/Micrsoft/IBM dominated industry for the next 10 years.
  10. jefhatfield Retired


    Jul 9, 2000
    we still have a lot of growing room left...and shrinking room, too ;)
  11. TDT macrumors member

    Apr 4, 2004
    University of Iowa - Iowa
    Languages mean nothing in the computer world. This is absolutely true, we have languages being made for very specialized one should know all the languages, and isn't a prereq for knowing about the computer field.

    Saying that your friend, who has a phd in CS, isn't still really knowledgeable is probably a little bit of a stretch. If you spend enough time in computers, and continue study in them, your focus will stray off the language aspect, and will focus on the theory aspect of computers. I would have believed the same thing you are now a few years back, but my heavy study now shown me that languages mean nothing.
  12. crenz macrumors 6502a


    Jul 3, 2003
    Shanghai, China
    Well, even I can predict that. I predict that the human race will continue to innovate and come up with even simpler and more powerful tools. How's that?

    The real interesting thing to predict is what kind of impact the faster machines are going to have on our lives. It was not so hard to predict that one day we would be able to carry around mobile phones that allow us to talk (almost) everywhere we are. It was much harder to predict what kind of impact that would make on our lifestyle.
  13. Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Sep 19, 2002
    Los Angeles
    Here's an interesting site: My favorite quote there is by Steven Pinker:
    Of course, here I sit with my iSight videophone. Maybe Apple will bring us those flying cars soon too.
  14. 7on macrumors 601


    Nov 9, 2003
    Dress Rosa
    And yet there are some people whom I still have to argue with over never ever needing over 160GB hdds.
  15. Dont Hurt Me macrumors 603

    Dont Hurt Me

    Dec 21, 2002
    Yahooville S.C.
    My prediction is they will become a software only company. The OS is the only reason we have made due with subpar hardware for so many years. add marketshare thats almost at 1% and i say you have a formula for a software company or some giant like microsoft or sony just gobbling them up. Prediction- software company or will go on like Apple by Microsoft or Apple a HP company.
  16. jefhatfield Retired


    Jul 9, 2000
    he still knows what he learned in school for 13 years ( BS, MS, MS, PhD) but is not really about to accept that the field moves on and many things he slaved over are things that people don't care about or know about today

    trying to keep up in this field takes its toll and many computer techies just give up the fight at some point and move on to other fields or stay permanently locked into the past like he has...when he first entered the field, computers were still mostly using vacuum tube technology, so the 486 with its superb speed, compact size, low cost, mouse, and qwerty keyboard are light years ahead of what he first encountered and is just about the furthest he can comfortably envision for this field...anything later makes him nauseous ;)

    it's probably just human nature for most people
  17. scem0 macrumors 604


    Jul 16, 2002
    back in NYC!
    I say the computer industry is too instable to make predictions for such large periods of time.

    Hell, it's hard to tell who will be doing good/bad in 1 month.

    I think anything could happen in the next 10 years.

  18. Awimoway macrumors 65816

    Sep 13, 2002
    at the edge
    Nice quotation, Dr. Q.

    Would anyone agree that the discoveries and technological advances of 1850–1950 will far outpace those from 1950–2050? For that matter, compare 1900–1950 with 1950–2000, and I wonder if we aren't slowing down. This is inarguably true in terms of how people live. As for whether it is true of scientific discoveries is more debatable.

    Basically, in the 2nd half of the 20th century we made big leaps in genetics, space exploration, geology (it's shocking, really, how recent plate tectonics became accepted), and computers. And, arguably, the Internet deserves appreciation separate from computers. Transistors and cell phones were invented. Only computers have made a major difference in how we live.

    But in the first half of the 20th century we made huge advances in physics; nuclear science (not to mention nuclear warfare); vaccines; radio communication (and its cousin, radar); television; submarines, rocketry, and cars became widespread, airplanes were successfully flown and became widespread, jet airplanes were developed, electricity became common, indoor plumbing became common.

    And if you include 1850–1900, you have recorded multimedia, electricity (not its discovery, but major developments in its practical use), a major transformation in medicine and health when microscopic contaminants became appreciated, trains became widespread, cars were beginning to be developed, telephones, evolution, mass urban transit, and I'm sure many other things I've left out. It seems to my memory like much of modern chemistry was developed in this time too. And I'm not sure if air conditioning goes here or in 1900–1950, but that's damn important to me. :)

    (Please forgive me if I put anything in the wrong era.)

    I know these lists are rather slipshod. But if you compare them, I don't think you'll find that 1950–2000 can hold a candle to either of the other two. Yet I think we've gotten into the habit of expecting such rapid change. I know I feel a little disappointed by my own time. And I find it strange, because we have learned so much now that you'd think we could race even faster toward new discoveries. I guess maybe the point isn't that we know so much now, but that we knew too little before the 19th Century.
  19. IIvan macrumors regular

    Nov 21, 2003
    I dont think Apple is going anywhere for a while. Therer are enough loyal customers to keep it from going under, but a PC base too established for it to really surge in marketshare. This could change however if/when really new revolutionary stuff emerges (into the consumer market) beyond desktop PCs like direct brain to silicon interfacing- real virtual reality, nanotechnology, and other stuff we cant predict...
  20. IIvan macrumors regular

    Nov 21, 2003
    I think that we covered our basic comforts and conveniences more in those eras, now we are more conservative in our prosperity, and we are more focused on entertainment
  21. wdlove macrumors P6


    Oct 20, 2002
    Did anyone here attend MWNY 2002? Attend the Keynote by David Pogue on the future of Apple? I really wished that it had been videotaped and available on Quicktime. His great humor was one of the best parts. He had design students to work the on project. Without the visual its hard to remember and describe his talk.

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