I just finished reading the old thread, only to discover that there was a new story on MacRumors and a new thread... so here's my comments:
For context, I started cutting film back when I had two reels and a viewer in the middle... and I had to hand crank it to preview. Cutting involved a nice razor embedded in plastic and a splice was a fancy piece of tape with sprocket holes in it. I am a software developer and I've long lamented how early editing software has always been based on just replicating the film process electronically.
Then I started to meet the Video People. Video People are much of the industry- the editors for TV news, the editors for TV programs, the wedding photographers. Just about everbody but filmmakers, but also including a lot of the lower end film production support (eg: editing houses.) The Video People have been taught rules of thumb. They are not very technical. They know how it is "supposed" to work because that's what they learned in colllege or at their first jobs. They are all stuck in specific workflows and specific ways of doing things.
They output to tape because they cannot grasp the concept that tape became obsolete a decade ago (and the ones who can grasp it are stuck dealing with others who demand delivery and archive on tape.)
These are the same people who think that iMovie was a joke when it was reworked. I loved it. I was happy to see a tiny, little step forward in working with video. Apple thought just a smidgen different and people went crazy. Sure it had less features than the previous one-- but creativity was so unleashed that the minor hassle of working around those features not being built in was no big deal.
I think Apple is skating to where the puck is. Apple is going to release a Final Cut focused on the direction the industry is heading. If Apple does its job right, the Video People will be screaming their heads off. But the 20 year olds who don't know anything but "want to make movies" (and are more serious than those willing to limit themselves to iMovie) will take it and start cutting the next generation of indie features.
Maybe Apple will provide all the features the Video People are threatening to switch to Avid if they don't get (as if it is some sort of a hostage demand -- "I'm going to post to macrumors forums and threaten to switch to Avid! That will teach them!". I've met many people in many industries but the Video People are the most rigid, the least genuinely understanding of technology and the most fixated on rules of thumb and rigid perspectives about How Things Should Work. Seriously, computer illiterate grease monkies are more flexible and open to new technology, in my experience. The Video People think they are Pros (because hey earn a salary) and therefore, anything that causes them to stretch or adjust or re-think the processes they use is "bad". The idea that something might be more efficient or produce a better quality result seems unfathomable.
If Apple has spent the last several years working on something signficant (which is the implication of the claims Apple has "abandoned their pro products") then the Video People are going to be screaming bloody murder in a couple hours. I look forward to it.
(PS- I didn't call anyone in this thread a Video People. You can choose to take offense if you wish, but I'm talking about people I've met and had to work with in the industry, not posters to this thread whom I do not know personally.)