OH-02: As Goes Ohio...

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by mactastic, Aug 3, 2005.

  1. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #1
    Link'd
    Turnout was actually unusually high apparently. And the high turnout in a district that gave the previous incumbent a 44-point victory nearly went blue. This race shouldn't even have been close.

    Charlie Cook said in his pre-election analysis said:
    The margin of victory was less than 4 points. In an R+13 district.

    Now this was something of a perfect storm for the Democrats; their candidate was an articulate Iraqi war veteran who is a gun owner and hunter. Their opponent had ties to Tom DeLay, and the whole Ohio GOP is tied up in a corruption scandal known as Coingate which they were also succesfully able to tie Schmidt to.

    But this shows that with the right candidates and the right message the Democrats could mount a serious challenge to GOP control nationwide between now and '08. Interesting times.
     
  2. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #2
    All this election shows is that most folks stayed home; mostly Republicans.

    In 2004, Portman won 222,000 to 87,000.

    (per USAToday; http://www.usatoday.com/news/politi...ouseResultsByState.aspx?rti=G&cn=1&tf=l&sp=OH)

    Schmidt won 59,000 to 55,000.

    Doesn't look like Hackett excited anybody but folks outside the District. He certainly didn't appeal to voters, given the bad turnout for him. Obviously, folks didn't give much of a hoot about Schmidt, either.

    'Rat
     
  3. mactastic thread starter macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #3
    Doesn't appeal to anyone? 'Rat, the previous guy won by 44 points! Hackett obviously appealed to enough dyed-in-the-wool GOP members that he came within 4 points. You can't tell me that district should have been split almost 50-50

    And I wouldn't put to much stock in comparing turnout numbers from a special election with one featuring a hotly contested presidential race.

    My point is only that if the rest of the nation makes one tenth the shift OH-02 made, the GOP is in trouble. These sorts of things were happening to the Democratic party in 1993 and early 1994. Not a guarantee, but I'd be sweating a little if I was an Ohio GOP strategist right now.
     
  4. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #4
    I don't know the grimy details, but I heard on talk-radio that Schmidt had voted for some unpopular tax increases that were proposed by the governor.

    Regardless, off-season elections aren't anything to build a future campaign on. Come the next primaries, an anti-tax Republican could possibly beat Schmidt, creating what could easily be a whole new ball-game.

    'Rat
     
  5. mactastic thread starter macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #5
    I suppose you also heard on talk radio that Hackett was just a staff puke. :rolleyes:

    Look, the guy called President Bush an SOB and he still got almost half the vote in a district that should have broken solidly for the GOP, special election or no.

    If Barbara Lee had just squeaked by a GOP challenger would you say it was nothing for the Democrats to worry about?
     
  6. Trowaman macrumors 6502a

    Trowaman

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2003
    Location:
    CD: TX-14
    #6
    I followed this hackett race VERY closely. I even chipped in $20 b/c I liked him so much. The earlier reports were that turnout was supposed to be 40k people, it was way more than that. 115K i believe. Also, the question on people voting that just democrats voted more, why did more republicans not turn out to vote? There are more of them. There was a funny pic 2 weeks before the election of the Democratic and Republican hq. The Dems were open asking people to pick up canvassing materials, the republicans were closed. Also, a key thing was the RNC had to spend $500k from their rainy day fund here, Dems spent $200k in money not raised for this specific election.

    House is looking extremely good for 2006, There are more Iraq veterans returning and running for office AS DEMOCRATS. Only R I'm aware of is one guy challenging Byrd for Senate in West Virginia. Hackett, PA-08, and I believe a few others in PA, NC, and WI areas should be veterans. I THINK. Unfortunately I can't watch all the house races like I can 33 senate races.

    Senate, gains, but no take back.
     
  7. mactastic thread starter macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #7
    Too many 'safe' districts to really hope for retaking either branch of Congress. I'll be happy if the left makes some gains that reduces the ability of the GOP to ram anything the feel like through Congress, plus pick up a few of those Governator spots. Having the top spot in the state puts a lot of resources at the party's fingertips come '08.
     
  8. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #8
    It looks to me that the 2006 and the 2008 elections are gonna be confusing to a lot of "analysts". I'm seeing/hearing so many different types of views and commentaries during my travels and during browsing around the Net.

    Some folks support the war but are mad at Bush about the southern border problems. Others, depending on some local situation, focus on their locally-poor economy--or locally good. Some are just mad at both parties claiming to see no real difference between them.

    Hillary's dipping a toe in the water, yakking about illegals. Other Dems are trying figure out how make themselves not look anti-gun. (Simple answer: Don't be.)

    Given the NeoCon penchant for out-Heroding Herod on spending, and the grumpiness of some Republican Senators toward Bush, I don't conclude that either party really has any sort of act together.

    'Rat
     
  9. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Location:
    LaLaLand, CA
    #9
    Unless we get some real "uniters", 2006 and 2008 are shaping up to be just like 2004. Lots of people getting all riled up. Not because they like their candidate, because they don't. It's just that they really, really hate the other guy.
     
  10. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #10
    I see where Ohio's Gov. Taft has a real butt-biter grabbing at him over this unreported gifts deal. The gifts themselves don't seem such-a-much, but it's easily perceived as unwarranted arrogance as to carelessness in reporting. Ironic, of course, after his talk of "ethics".

    'Rat
     
  11. mactastic thread starter macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #11
    The Ohio GOP is in deep doo-doo right now. In addition to Taft pleading no contest to charges today, Coin-gate seems to be the scandal the just keeps on giving. I believe there is also a Senate seat up for re-election in '06, and if the one remaining Congressman who could pull it off decides against it, Paul Hackett may well be the next Senator from Ohio.

    It's quite something for Taft to run his mouth about ethics, then refuse to resign after admitting to ethics violations. He'll likely be run out of town next time.

    And to continue the anti-corruption theme that can serve Democrats well (if the manage to pull their heads out of their collective posteriors) there is Montana, which is a seemingly odd place to find a popular Democratic governor, where Mark Schweitzer is putting an anti-corruption initiative on the ballot on '06. Apparently their Republican senator, Conrad Burns, has been gorging at the Abramoff buffet table. There will be a strong challenger to Burns (can't help thinking Monty Burns :) ) in '06, as well as the linked anti-corruption initiative. The governor's popularity and the populace's disgust with the level of corruption achieved by the state's GOP may well propel another Democrat to the Senate.
     
  12. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2004
    Location:
    Chicago, Illinois
    #12
    Mac- I hope that you're right, but have you been to Ohio? I grew up there and it is one hell of a conservative place. Kentucky is more liberal (I'm not kidding). I was just there recently and it hasn't changed a bit. I'll be very surprised if the Republicans' scandals harm them enough to make a difference.
     
  13. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2004
    Location:
    Reality
    #13
    Ohio -- the state in which I live -- is an absolute, shameless embarrassment.

    • The state legislature is overwhelmingly Republican. Put together with our Republican governor, it makes it almost impossible to get anything positive done here.
    • Governor Taft, as you've heard, was just convicted of not reporting gifts. He will, however, continue in office.
    • One of his appointees, Republican fundraiser Tom Noe, "lost" $13 million of Workers Comp money investing in rare coins (instead of more conventional investments). Investigations are ongoing as to Mr. Noe's exact interest in these rare coins.
    • The state has been under court order for several years to change its unfair property-tax-based school funding system. It hasn't done squat, nor will it probably do anything because, after all, what are you gonna do, jail the whole Ohio legislature for contempt of court?
    • The governor keeps pushing a high-tech jobs plan which looks to be a giveaway to those companies more than anything else.
    • Secretary of State Ken Blackwell has been pushing the same kind of highly restrictive budget amendment which is causing chaos in Colorado, where it has already been adopted.
    • People are leaving the state in droves because the economy is so bad here.
    • In the last election Ohio became the new Florida, what with the lack of a paper trail for the voting machines, and large unexplained discrepancies between the exit polls and the tallied vote.
    • And, of course, Ohio was the state that put George Bush over the top.
    This state is such a joke.

    Ahhh, maybe I shouldn't complain. On the positive side, the Browns did hire Romeo Crennell.
     
  14. Trowaman macrumors 6502a

    Trowaman

    Joined:
    Nov 3, 2003
    Location:
    CD: TX-14
    #14
    It's Brian Schweitzer. Sorry, little picky on this one. I went to Montana last summer and loved it. Once I heard they elected this guy as governor I did some research on him. I REALLY like him (policy and personality). He should make the 2008 VP short list and a possible president candidate someday.

    Anyways, Jon Tester is gonna wipe the floor with Burns. Organic Farmer/state Senate Majority leader vs/ Corrupt Delay like cronie?

    Montana, Pennsylvania, and Ohio should be the dems 3 best chances for pick ups with decent shots in several other states (Rhode Island, Arizona, Missouri, Virginia, Tennessee) However, a lot of those depend on who the candidates are (still waiting on Claire McClaskil in MO and anyone in VA).

    Since this is an Ohio-02 thread, there is a rumor going around that since Sherrod Brown announced he's passing on a senate challenge, should Tim Ryan pass as well Hackett has said he will jump in. All 3 are great choices IMO.
     
  15. mactastic thread starter macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #15
    My bad... It's not the first time I've made that mistake with Brian Schweitzer's name. For some reason I've got a mental block there.

    Regarding Schweitzer on the VP list, I think it might be hard to convince the guy that working in DC is better than walking to the capital to work with your dog every day. I know I'd be pretty tempted to hang on to that job as long as I could.

    That's what I'm hearing as well. The anti-corruption thing seems like Bad News for anyone associated with Abramoff.

    If the Democrats can shed their anti-gun image, the west is ripe for the picking. Connect the hunters and sportsmen with the environmentalists on keeping open space open and pristine, lambast the GOP for their overreaching and their ethical lapses, and depending on the how the Global Struggle Against Violent Extremism is going pound the GOP on that. Combine that with the hope that top-tier candidates are much more likely to step up this time 'round than they were last time, and it could be a sea change in Democratic fortunes. Of course that's still not likely to give them back control of anything in Congress, but reversing their substantial losses of the last 3 go-rounds would be a sea change.

    However, like you say, much depends on the candidate recruitment drive. Lets see some more Iraq vets coming back and running as Dems. That's a powerful statement.

    I have a feeling that Hackett will win any statewide election in Ohio, be it Senator, Congressperson, or state office.
     
  16. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2004
    Location:
    Chicago, Illinois
    #16
    Again- I hope you're right. Just remember that any democrat elected in Ohio is going to be held to unbelieveably high standards. They will have to be near perfect to stay in office. The Republicans will go after any newly-elected Democrat in Ohio like a pack of wolves. We are talking a seriously conservative state here.
     
  17. mactastic thread starter macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #17
    I hope so too, but I'm far from sure. My usual caveat applies: My observations and predictions are completely based on my own twisted version of reality. And they're only worth $0.02. Believe at your own risk. ;)
     
  18. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

    Joined:
    Feb 14, 2004
    Location:
    Reality
    #18
    It's interesting that you say that.

    In the past, the general portrait of Ohio was that the north was somewhat liberal, the south (around Cincinnati) was very conservative, and Columbus was somewhere between moderate and conservative.

    But over the last decade or two, the Republicans have managed to take over the whole state government, and while there are plenty of liberals still left in northern Ohio, they seem to be collapsing into pockets of urban areas (i.e., minorities and/or the poor). My own view is that young liberals with any kind of means are leaving the state in search of the kind of employment they can't find here. And that could be a death blow for the Democratic party in Ohio.

    Heck, between the lack of jobs and the Republican stranglehold here, my wife and I have talked of leaving the state.
     
  19. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2004
    Location:
    Chicago, Illinois
    #19
    That's why I left 13 years ago. I visited Chicago, and I decided my time in Ohio had come to an end. After that visit, I went back, packed what would fit in my car and ran for my life. It was easier to do back then, don't know if I could have done it now.
     

Share This Page