Poll: Who will lob the first nuke in our time?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Chip NoVaMac, Jul 24, 2006.

  1. Chip NoVaMac macrumors G3

    Chip NoVaMac

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    #1
    Given the news of so many nations having or coming close to have nuclear weapon capability, I asked the question at work last week. The answer surprised me.

    A number said Israel to my surprise. I am 50/50 on Iran and North Korea.

    Just wanted to see how we all see it.

    (Shame that the PF does not allow for polls)
     
  2. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

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  3. joepunk macrumors 68030

    joepunk

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    #3
    I say N. Korea as the regime, IMO, does not have much to lose. Whereas Iran has a more International relations at stake.

    Don't really like to think about it much though.
     
  4. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #4
    I agree. And we may not have long to wait.
     
  5. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

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    #5
    It will probably be a 'tactical' warhead. And I can't see anyone retaliating unless it's directly on their sovereign soil, for fear of an unwinnable exchange.
     
  6. aquajet macrumors 68020

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    #6
    By the Bush regime, I agree. However, 2009 and beyond remains to be seen. I believe it's unlikely Americans will tolerate an administration as reactionary as Bush...

    Scary times. Two and a half years is a long time.
     
  7. stubeeef macrumors 68030

    stubeeef

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    #7
    It will not be the US, or a NATO country, but they will be second. My the offending country, the one that uses it first, be forgiven, otherwise they will be wiped from the earth.

    The US has had nukes longer than anyone. Yet didn't use them against China, USSR, N Korea, Iraq, Vietnam, Cuba,..........

    Anyone choosing the US is just trying to bash. No other credible pundit would, they would choose a terrorist state.
     
  8. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #8
    Why? The US has used them before, after all, and has discussed using them and developed them for bunker-busting.
     
  9. Don't panic macrumors 603

    Don't panic

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    #9
    true, but we never had GW at the helm either.
    if we get to 2009, then we are good, i think.

    i also think the ones most likely to actually use them if they felt cornered would be the israeli.
     
  10. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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  11. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

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    #11
    Not at all. Not only is the U.S. to be the only country in history to have employed two, not just one, nuclear devices in war... it is also one of the few countries that would perhaps be safe from retaliation.

    Note: I'm excluding so-called 'dirty' bombs from the argument as I don't consider then 'nukes' in the context of this discussion.

    Your idea that those of us who genuinely feel this way amounts to no more than 'bashing' stems from a myopic and cosy view of your nation's essential 'goodness'.

    Besides, when you read things like this, you'd be foolish not to place an each-way bet...

    http://www.newyorker.com/printables/fact/060417fa_fact
     
  12. Chip NoVaMac thread starter macrumors G3

    Chip NoVaMac

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    #12

    For give me for my misspelling. Others got the idea. :)
     
  13. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #13
    i'm a little slow :)


    here's my vote, in order of likelihood:
    1. the US
    2. a terrorist group
     
  14. Chaszmyr macrumors 601

    Chaszmyr

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  15. aquajet macrumors 68020

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    #15
    As BV mentioned, nukes were used on two separate occasions against civilian populations. The Bush regime has also stated that all options are on the table in the WoT.

    This is an unfair assessment, and I call your BS.
     
  16. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #16
    pakistan....after the government there falls into the hands of islamic fundamentalists
     
  17. adroit macrumors 6502

    adroit

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    #17
    Either US or Israel. More likely Israel.

    I don't think any other country (ie. N.Korea, Iran) would be brave enough to nuke the US or Isreal first. The main reason why N.Korea developed their nukes is so that they can cut deals with the US on the negotiating table. Also, it's going to be a while until Iran got their nuke working properly, and right now they're just having fun pretending to be brave while the US is busy with their Iraq business.
     
  18. Chip NoVaMac thread starter macrumors G3

    Chip NoVaMac

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    #18
    I am hoping for cooler heads in the US at this time. That may be asking a lot.:eek:

    My vote is still split between Iran and North Korea. As deranged as GWB seems, he is sane compared to Kim in Korea.
     
  19. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #19
    I think I'm with Chip. Iran or N. Korea. Even money.
     
  20. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    #20
    Probably some proxy organization or a terrorist organization.

    The reasoning being, that a group like this is essentially stateless - so it would be difficult to know who/where to hold accountable and/or launch a counterstrike.

    Another (less likely) possibility is a traditional state powerful enough to feel it could act with impunity. Right now, only the US and China really qualify. I feel this is less likely, however, as the economic (and social) repurcussions would probably prohibit their use. Possible exception for "bunker-buster" tactical nukes.
     
  21. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #22
    Unfortunately, It has become more and more likely that a nuclear weapon maybe used. The most probable scenarios seem to be either the US use of "tactical" nukes or if an al Qaeda type organization can get its hands on one, the use of such a device against any number of western targets. The use by either India and Pakistan of nukes against each other can't be ruled out if only because of the tremendous possibility of "accidental" launches against each other. And no list would be complete without the possibility of the paranoia of Kim Jong-il leading to a catastrophe. The simple fact the Bush administration has done next to nothing to secure weapons materials in the old SU, abandoned what little safeguards we had in North Korea, promotes the possession of such weapons in India, and continues to tout the use of tactical nukes as a good thing for the US military to use in its campaign against Iran, shows how dangerous our world has become in the last five-and-a-half years. I'm hoping we make it to Jan. 20, 2009 without this nightmare happening.
     
  22. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #23
    sayhey -- you sound like you're lobbying for a job with the bulletin of the atomic scientists. the following is from 2002, when they moved the clock closer to midnight:
     
  23. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #24
    I hadn't read the statement, but I know the organization and, yes, I wouldn't mind working for them, if they don't mind a very non-atomic science type guy hanging out at the office. My starting salary demands are very reasonable. ;)

    Great reference, zim!
     
  24. CubaTBird macrumors 68020

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