Presidential Race Remains Close; No Convention Bounce

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Leo Hubbard, Aug 2, 2004.

  1. Leo Hubbard macrumors newbie

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    #1
    Isn't it traditional for the Democrats to get a 15% bounce during their convention?
    Yes I didn't paste that little opinion of Frank Newport, my guess is he's a democrat trying to make light of the situation.
     
  2. themadchemist macrumors 68030

    themadchemist

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    #2
    Not with such a small margin of undecided voters.
     
  3. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #3
    I heard a pundit describe it as a concrete trampoline. With the number of undecided voters so small I don't think anyone expected a bounce, and I don't suppose Bush is going to get one either. It's going to come down to the debates and the few people who can be persuaded either way.
     
  4. 3rdpath macrumors 68000

    3rdpath

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    #4
    i would like to compare the % of current undecided voters versus the % of undecided voters in past elections. i don't know if this data exists...and if it does, how accurate it would be...but it could certainly shed some light on the polls.

    my gut feeling is that most everyone has already made up their mind. seriously, how can anyone be 4 years into bush's term and not have a solid opinion and preference?

    why do i have a terrible feeling that this next election is going to be even more controversial than 2000's?
     
  5. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #5
    as in "constitutional crisis?" We live in interesting times.
     
  6. Mike Teezie macrumors 68020

    Mike Teezie

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    #6
    I have the same fear.
     
  7. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #7
    Me too.

    The worst possible thing that could happen is a literal repeat of the 2000 fiasco.

    But things are close enough that that could happen.
     
  8. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #8
    And if it does, just how many dubious elections is it going to take before the disenfranchised lose patience?
     
  9. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #9
    For certain the electoral process is little improved, but a repeat of 2000 is highly unlikely IMO. For this to occur, the election would again have to come down to a small number of votes in a deciding state. I'd say the odds against that are pretty good. What I do fear is another election with the popular vote going one way and the electoral another.
     
  10. Bobcat37 macrumors member

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    #10
    Only time will tell IJ :)

    As for the election, I just hope the media isn't reporting who won what state before they are 100% positive, that is just wrong. Especially considering that polls are still open on the west coast when they are closed on the east coast. In fact, I think ALL polls across ALL of America should be CLOSED before the media starts predicting things, it's just more fair and accurate that way.
     
  11. Neserk macrumors 6502a

    Neserk

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    #11
    His numbers increased by 4% if I recall correctly. Yes, they are noramlly in the double digits after the convention but I don't know if people are normally so strongly behind a single candidate so early as they were this year.

    He only has to win by a negative 540,000 votes :p

    As the economy continues to crumble Bush's numbers will continue to steadily decline.

    The improved job situtuation that was predicted was not so hot. Bush still sucks when it comes to doing his job, people still know it. I'm still hearing more and more Republicans who are disgusted with having ever voted for them and even those who are saying they will vote for a democrat for the first time ever :eek:
     
  12. Leo Hubbard thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #12
    They need to have 24 hour polls. ie polls open at 7am est and close at 7am est. That means they open at 10am wst and close at 10pm wst. Every poll open simultaneously and close the same way and that way the people on the east coast won't know who won what state before they even get to the polls. Plus everyone will have an opportunity to go to the poll irregardless to what hours they work.
     
  13. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #13
    A lot of the forecasting is done with exit polling, so I'm afraid this scheme won't help very much.
     
  14. themadchemist macrumors 68030

    themadchemist

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    #14
    Maybe they'll tie on electoral votes and it'll go to the House and they'll tie in the House and the Speaker will have to decide and Kerry will promise him a cabinet post if breaks the tie in his favor...Sound familiar? ;)

    Actually, if they tie in electoral votes, Bush wins because he has the House.
     
  15. Leo Hubbard thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #15
    [Post removed by moderator. The same statement and link were posted to at least two other threads. The posts that followed here in reaction to this post have also been removed.]
     
  16. Bobcat37 macrumors member

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    #16
    If only that was happening :confused:
     
  17. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #17
    from here
     

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