Pricing and Thunderbolt peripherals will be critical to Mac Pro success

[deconstruct60]

.....
2) Thunderbolt peripherals.

There is still a very limited selection of TB peripherals and enclosures and the prices are off-putting. The new MP needs to launch with some reasonably priced standard peripherals (single disks, small & medium arrays, PCI-e expansion chassis).

Thunderbolt is good at somethings and not so good at others. The notion that it is "one port to rule them all" is deeply. It is not. Neither is the focusing on 10Gb/s or 20Gb/s being a higher number than 3, 5, or 6Gb/s .

Thunderbolt gets traction when multiple protocols and/or data streams are being aggregated onto a single cable. No aggregation probably not so cost effective.

Single disks --- single stream , single protocol ... probably not going to be cost effective.

PCI-e expansion chassis -- targeting a single card use at a time... probably not. A PCI-e card specifically integrated into a specific box with exactly the right power and other supplementary infrastrucuture will hit a better price point.

Docking station that does multiple things -- USB + FW + ... + ODD + .... has a much better chance at paying off it is better aligned.

[ If no vendor shows up to compete with Apple's Thunderbolt docking station/ display but is is more optimized the desktop space there will be a problem. ]

small/medium arrays --- What is missing is not an array but a JBOD box (or JBOD plus a small amount of other stuff box). The array prices are already in the RAID card + External enclosure zone.

TB is still worrying a few people, I think, in terms of price, availability and future viability.

TB worries more than a few folks because it is proprietary. Even more proprietary than x86 CPUs. Apple doesn't particularly care. Frankly as long as most of the PC industry ignores it but Intel has strong desire to move it forward that gives Apple a little more leverage as the only tier 1 consumer of the tech.

I still can't find a reasonably priced external enclosure for a 2.5" SATA SSD.

If reasonable is relative to USB 3.0 then probably never going to quite get there. USB needs a combo USB+SATA controller chip (as opposed to just a single SATA one) but the volumes are much bigger.

 

[deconstruct60]

.... there is no way that anything needlessly moved external that could be hooked up for free internally stands a chance of competing.

Nothing comes free with design. There are always trade-offs. Piggybacking on already internal infrastructure is probably cheaper if there is additional space/power/cost/etc budget available, but it is not free.

The other sweeping assumption is whether this was needlessly moved or not.

 

[OS6-OSX]

Hey MacVidCards I don't appreciate the incorrect lead!
You told me the movie "Money Pit" was playing here!

 

[phoenixsan]

I agree....

Apple must try very hard to make the new Pro sub $3000, at least in some configurations. And yes, no abundance of Thundebolt peripherals and high prices can hinder or be a deterrent in the new Mac Pro sucess......

 

[MacVidCards]

Hey MacVidCards I don't appreciate the incorrect lead!
You told me the movie "Money Pit" was playing here!

Oh, it is.

Cost to connect 6 1TB 2.5" SATA drives in 2012 Mac Pro = $552
Cost to connect same 6 drives via TB 1 in 2013 Mac Pro= $1,200 (link above, courtesy Subsonix)

Prices do not include tax & shipping, nor the emotional damage to your cat when he gets tangled in the 6 TB cables.

But for just $648 more you do get.....now I can't remember what the big plus was.

But hey, it's just MONEY. You didn't need it for anything else, did you?

 

[linuxcooldude]

Good point .

Apple has until the release of the MP 6.1 to convince 3rd party manufactureres to cater to their new TB thing .
To be sold at Firewire prices .
Cables, too .

It didn't happen in the past 3 years, though .

On another thread we listed at least 50 different products that supported thunderbolt. It probably more then that now. It was not all external hard drives either.

External is almost always more expensive then internal. Considering thunderbolt is a newer technology its naturally going to be more expensive.

 

[thekev]

There is nothing to the nMP besides TB, so yeah, reasonably priced high performing TB peripherals being important to success is an understatement.
It's like buying a car but you just buy the engine first. I know the whole car used to cost you $2500.00. This new engine costs $2500.00 but it is 'Expandable'. You can add stuff like a steering wheel (I know there is only 1 manufacturer right now of wheels but...) You might need some seats and belts. Oh yeah. Maybe need a gear box of some kind. We have 3 companies that will sell you wheels. Lucky you. More will jump on board. "Trust Us".

What concerns me is the amount of stuff that fights with displays for bandwidth. Thunderbolt 2.0 just adds channel bonding to support displayport 1.2. Some people did predict them consuming both channels with display bandwidth. The displayport 1.2 standard actually allows for things like usb hubs and daisy chaining, so I'm still not sure what thunderbolt adds there. In my opinion it should have been its own thing. It might make more sense in notebooks to bundle everything in that manner when compared to desktops and workstations. I wouldn't personally touch the thing without all required peripherals in place, stable, and supported.

Yeah, let's compare it to a naked drive..

You forgot the enclosure and dual interface, so not the same. Something like this is closer:

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822205185

I tend to prefer internal over low end housing solutions with port multiplier out. Generally it's nice to minimize the number of links when possible. You introduce another set of firmware with those enclosures. They vary considerably in operating temperatures and noise. The mac pro is okay on drive bay heat and nearly silent. I figured that link would be to a multi-bay drive chassis. The G drive thing actually made me laugh. They make terrible stuff, but it was really funny when that link opened to a bus powered device. It's even funnier because it uses firewire.

 

[fastlanephil]

These guys think the 2013 Mac Pro pricing will be different than what is being speculated here a bouts.

It could result in much larger sales than the recent Mac Pros if it's feasible.

http://www.t-gaap.com/2013/6/26/mac-pro-pricing?site_locale=en#.UcvRnRYu37J

 

[linuxcooldude]

Oh, it is.

Cost to connect 6 1TB 2.5" SATA drives in 2012 Mac Pro = $552
Cost to connect same 6 drives via TB 1 in 2013 Mac Pro= $1,200 (link above, courtesy Subsonix)

Prices do not include tax & shipping, nor the emotional damage to your cat when he gets tangled in the 6 TB cables.

But for just $648 more you do get.....now I can't remember what the big plus was.

But hey, it's just MONEY. You didn't need it for anything else, did you

These are initial costs, yes. But the external enclosures are likely to outlast the drives themselves. So they should pay for themselves over time as you replace bad drives or upgrade to larger/faster ones.

There are some advantages too. The ability to use or transfer these thunderbolt drives to another computer that support thunderbolt easily.

The cat is your responsibility and not the hardware manufactures.

 

[foidulus]

I think just price, not peripherals.

While there aren't a huge amount of TB peripherals presently there are plenty. Lots of disk storage choices and now two legacy port choices (Belkin and Matrox), plus a bunch of specialty ones including PCI expansion. They aren't cheap but most of what you would expect is available.

I agree with OP that $2k is likely. The present MP sticks out like a sore thumb in the Apple lineup. Only appeals to a small minority and priced for that too. Just dropping the bottom price down to $2k ties it in perfectly with the rest of them. And looking at the likely BOM it seems to be a no brainer.

Those who look at retail FirePro prices and think that automatically means expensive Mac Pro have no idea of how their pricing power works. Additionally those who think Apple is greedy are right, but they seem to have no understanding of the concept of margins and volumes. With this tiny thing they can have greater margins than with the old MP and higher volumes all at a lower price point.

The only way they would be able to ship for about $2k is if they included a tiny SSD drive..... The size of the base drive will really be what determines the price of the unit. The price of the CPU and GPU are pretty much known, and while the case is more complex than the current offering, it is also a lot smaller which means a lot less material, so the cost there will probably be at worst a wash.

Intel hasn't released prices yet, but http://www.techpowerup.com/185643/i...ge-e-and-core-i3-haswell-series-detailed.html sort of gives a good rough estimate. Assuming Apple doesn't use the low-end quad core CPUs at all, the entry CPU will probably cost Apple about $500 per unit. The dual graphics cards will also probably cost Apple about $500, let's assume $200 for the memory and $100 for the case and related parts...Already we are ballparked at around $1300, now let's look at the drive.

Let's assume Apple can squeeze it's suppliers and get a high density drive for 45 cents a gig, in that scenario shipping with a 1 TB drive standard would drive just the cost to Apple, not including their markup, to near $2k. They *might* be able to get away with using a smaller drive and squeeking something out at less than $2k(a 500 gig would probably give them a cost of around $1600 or so, so $2k would be in line with Apple's average profit margin), but I'm not sure they would be willing to ship such a small drive in a "pro" machine.

 

[beelzebubba]

That's insane. For $900, you get a device that just connects things. It doesn't even hold anything.
I guess I'm just too old but I really don't understand what you people are so happy about.
You must all have more money than god.

If you don't like that you really won't like this...

http://www.sweetwater.com/store/detail/PTChassisPCIe/

The Thunderbolt hardware is pretty spendy right now but for the 3500 that the Avid extension box costs I can get a few Sonnet boxes and take those same cards in the expansion bay and have more flexibility and use them with an appropriate computer for the task. Instead of tying 20-30k worth of hardware to a single computer and having to replicate smaller systems, I can use these blocks to better scale the system in terms of both the interface configuration and the host configuration. It means we can send a Mini or an MBP when it's appropriate because it's based on the requirements of the application/job and not on how we have to package the system.

----------

Agreed, the forcing aspect doesn't sit well with me either -- especially since, in this case, TB is still expensive and a lot less established in comparison to mini-SAS and PCIe.

Yep, just like USB and Firewire were way back when.

 

[theSeb]

Oh, it is.

Cost to connect 6 1TB 2.5" SATA drives in 2012 Mac Pro = $552
Cost to connect same 6 drives via TB 1 in 2013 Mac Pro= $1,200 (link above, courtesy Subsonix)

Prices do not include tax & shipping, nor the emotional damage to your cat when he gets tangled in the 6 TB cables.

But for just $648 more you do get.....now I can't remember what the big plus was.

But hey, it's just MONEY. You didn't need it for anything else, did you?

That would be the most ridiculous way to gain 6 TB of storage so I am not sure why you have picked this scenario. For much cheaper you could get more storage, which is faster and includes a RAID controller via TB, as opposed to the $1200 price tag.

6 TB for $599.
http://store.apple.com/us/product/H...lt-duo-dual-drive-storage-system?fnode=5f&p=2


Look, I am all for where has the internal storage gone whine, but using pointless examples does not really prove anything.

 

[GroundLoop]

That would be the most ridiculous way to gain 6 TB of storage so I am not sure why you have picked this scenario. For much cheaper you could get more storage, which is faster and includes a RAID controller via TB, as opposed to the $1200 price tag.

6 TB for $599.
http://store.apple.com/us/product/H...lt-duo-dual-drive-storage-system?fnode=5f&p=2


Look, I am all for where has the internal storage gone whine, but using pointless examples does not really prove anything.

Meanwhile, I can go to Newegg and get two 3TB drives for $270.

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822148844

Let's look at the price ratios:

In your example, you spent 122% more than needed (599/270).
In MVC's example, you would have spent 117% more than needed (1200/552).

Ratios are pretty comparable internal vs external.

GL

 

[theSeb]

Meanwhile, I can go to Newegg and get two 3TB drives for $270.

http://www.newegg.com/Product/Product.aspx?Item=N82E16822148844

Let's look at the price ratios:

In your example, you spent 122% more than needed (599/270).
In MVC's example, you would have spent 117% more than needed (1200/552).

Ratios are pretty comparable internal vs external.

GL

Did those two drives include a hardware RAID controller?

 

[GroundLoop]

Did those two drives include a hardware RAID controller?

The MacPro has software RAID built into the OS. I do not see anything in the WD literature that says that they are using/not using SW RAID. If there is, then point it out.

GL

 

[OS6-OSX]

That would be the most ridiculous way to gain 6 TB of storage so I am not sure why you have picked this scenario. For much cheaper you could get more storage, which is faster and includes a RAID controller via TB, as opposed to the $1200 price tag.

6 TB for $599.
http://store.apple.com/us/product/H...lt-duo-dual-drive-storage-system?fnode=5f&p=2


Look, I am all for where has the internal storage gone whine, but using pointless examples does not really prove anything.

I think you forgot the in your post.
1. You mention faster and no where on the site that you linked do they mention the Raid speed! Anytime they use wording like "superior data transfer speed" without posting numbers you have to question it.
2. When you dig a little deeper and go to WD's site you finally see the true numbers. http://www.wdc.com/wdproducts/library/AAG/ENG/4178-705323.pdf 250MB's for the 6GB Box. That's slow! Very slow!
3. Looks like 7200rpm 3G drives in a 3G box for $599. So you are getting 6TB of "storage" for that price but for raid/speed it should have this as a sticker on the cover of the box!
4. With just 4 of the 6 1TB drives in Raid 0 that Macvid spoke of (even with it being 3G because of the back plate logic board combo) it will smoke the WD Book. Not to mention have 1 TB for storage and the other for the OS!

 

[OllyW]

The MacPro has software RAID built into the OS. I do not see anything in the WD literature that says that they are using/not using SW RAID. If there is, then point it out.

GL

The WD drive uses Software RAID.

http://www.anandtech.com/show/5797/...x-desk-and-western-digitals-thunderbolt-duo/4

 

[Nightarchaon]

I also love the new Mac Pro because it will force people to adopt Thunderbolt, and hopefully drive costs down of TB devices.

Or Tbolt devices wont come down in price, an apple will abandoned the MacPro in a few years because its seen as useless to the people who would have used it had it been a more classic workstation.

Thunderbolt devices will need to get within $20 of the equivalent USB3 device before its anything but a joke for the mass market. and i know the Pro isn't for the mass market, but as someone who signs off on budgets for new equipment, ill be putting in PCs not Mac-Pros when it comes around to the next hardware refresh, because the long-term costs + upgrades are considerably cheaper for "a big beige box" than the "dustbin".

 

[kudukudu]

I agree with the point others have made that this is all about TCO (total cost of ownership). I can see that hardcore PIXAR users aren't going to care much about cost since time is money and if real-time rendering of something can be reduced from 60 minutes to 30 minutes they won't care if the whole rig costs $8000.

For non-professional users cost is a much bigger issue. If we end with something like the following I will certainly be looking elsewhere for my next rig:

1. Mac Pro Mini - $3000
2. External enclosure for drives - $1000
3. External enclosure for cards - $1000
4. Bunch of drives - $1000

Total $6000 - this hypothetical build would be out of my price range since I would not be using it to make money....

 

[Kissaragi]

Ye, price is going to either kill it or make it. Will be interesting to see.

 

[deconstruct60]

Or Tbolt devices wont come down in price, an apple will abandoned the MacPro in a few years

Frankly, Apple would probably have to abandon Thunderbolt far more so than the Mac Pro at that point. The entire rest of the Mac product line up is dependent upon Thunderbolt to make those model ( you know the 90+% of the Mac revenues generated ) more competitive.

The Mac Pro is being positioned to ride in the bow wave of the rest of the line up. That is actually probably a good thing long term. If the rest of the Mac line up got into trouble then the Mac Pro would probably get nuked whether it was a tower or tube. As a tower it probably wasn't meeting targeted metrics either ( or else this transition would not have been so choppy, .... EU Market withdrawal never would have happened if Mac Pro sales were growing at 8-10% year-over-year. The momentum was dead before 2010 so really didn't matter if sales stopped. )

Thunderbolt devices will need to get within $20 of the equivalent USB3 device before its anything but a joke for the mass market.

Thunderbolt is a not a USB killer. Thunderbolt is not particularly good at what USB 3.0 is very good at. The new Mac Pro has USB 3.0 sockets so if need a USB device just buy one. There is little rational at all for two sockets to be primarily competing at the approximately same price point on the same functionality.

Mutating USB devices (e.g., single HDD enclosures) into Thunderbolt ones is largely just a way of guaranteeing minimal value proposition for Thunderbolt. It is never going to be as cheap, because that is not what it was created for. Using it to pound round pegs into square holes isn't going work well.

Folks who do direct one-for-one replacements of older sockets for Thunderbolt devices really don't understand Thunderbolt. Those folks are in monkey-see-monkey-do mode with no knowledge.

, but as someone who signs off on budgets for new equipment, ill be putting in PCs not Mac-Pros when it comes around to the next hardware refresh, because the long-term costs + upgrades are considerably cheaper for "a big beige box" than the "dustbin".

No prices out on the new Mac Pro at all and you have already made the budget decision. Thunderbolt really isn't the root cause issue here.

 

[deconstruct60]

That would be the most ridiculous way to gain 6 TB of storage so I am not sure why you have picked this scenario.

Because it makes for more effective FUD against the new Mac Pro. Crank up the reality distortion field high on the new Mac Pro and maybe more folks buy the current one before it disappears so he can sell more video cards. Anyone who doesn't factor in his direct financial interest in minimizing the impact of the upcoming Mac Pro is clueless. It permeates every single contrived TB configuration and/or anecdote he throws out.

For much cheaper you could get more storage, which is faster and includes a RAID controller via TB, as opposed to the $1200 price tag.

If actually trying to hold the costs close you actually want to eliminate the RAID controller. What is missing in the market is a straightforward 3-6 bay JBOD box that just simply presents 3-6 SATA devices to the system. No RAID, no spanning/concatenation , nothing layered on top. That would be an apples-to-apples comparison. Of course few, if any, of the detractors are trying to look for anything close to apples-to-apples comparisons.

Look, I am all for where has the internal storage gone whine, but using pointless examples does not really prove anything.

With FUD, only the facade of proof is necessary.

 

[subsonix]

I tend to prefer internal over low end housing solutions with port multiplier out. Generally it's nice to minimize the number of links when possible. You introduce another set of firmware with those enclosures. They vary considerably in operating temperatures and noise. The mac pro is okay on drive bay heat and nearly silent. I figured that link would be to a multi-bay drive chassis. The G drive thing actually made me laugh. They make terrible stuff, but it was really funny when that link opened to a bus powered device. It's even funnier because it uses firewire.

Ok? You are clearly missing the point, the reason it's linked in this thread is to get some kind of price comparison to Thunderbolt it self. Forget about the drive.

 

[deconstruct60]

For non-professional users cost is a much bigger issue. If we end with something like the following I will certainly be looking elsewhere for my next rig:

Why would a non-revenue generating user be targeting to buy a box explicitly targeted at folks in revenue generating activities? The device is named Mac Pro. Not Mac Fun. or Mac Hobby. or Mac Erector Set.

So yeah it doesn't work.

For non professional users their is the used/refurbed market. When the 2013 Mac Pro the price of 2009-2010 models will go down. If rev'ed in 2014 then the 2012 model goes down. By 2015-2016 this 2013 model and the external solutions will be more affordable.

If the folks the device is targeted at buy it and put it back on the growth path then there will be refurbs in 2014-2015 that come with just as good warranty coverage as buying it new in 2013.

If one of the Mac Pro's primary value propositions is higher revenue generating capabilities you can't flush that down the toilet and then claim it doesn't have "good enough " value.

----------

Ok? You are clearly missing the point, the reason it's linked in this thread is to get some kind of price comparison to Thunderbolt it self. Forget about the drive.

It is a deeply flawed comparison target. Thunderbolt has enough bandwidth to put 5-6 drives into a container and it still have plenty of headroom. This myopically storage focused boxes open no chance that Thunderbolt's video functionality can show any value. ( so it becomes overhead and more of an Apples-to-Oranges comparison).

If already have a Thunderbolt Display (docking station) or TB-FW dongle can just use the FW drive. In the context of a single HDD there is absolutely nothing that Thunderbolt really brings to the table. it is like whipping out a 1-ton metal press forge to crack walnuts. Oh wow, it is more expensive. Well yeah because it is the wrong tool for the job.

 

[subsonix]

It is a deeply flawed comparison target.

Of course it isn't. It was compared to this: http://eshop.macsales.com/item/Buffalo/HDPA1.0TU3/ in terms of price by me in post #13.

Where I also pointed out that gear that consumes enough bandwidth to make true use of Thunderbolt often costs more in it self.