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Steep drops in AAPL. WHY?
- Thread starter Daveway
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daveway00 said:
My guess is that the rapid rise in stock price got a lot of people overly excited, and it is settling back in at a new range for now, somewhere around $58-$59 is my guess. Once new products are introduced at MWSF, the price will pop up again, then remain static until the next quarterly earnings report. If Apple brings out some cool new products and hits the 4 million mark on iPods shipped in this quarter, expect another ride up the elevator. If Apple fails to do something expected, or starts having more troubles shipping product, people will panic and it'll drop again.
Simple market correction and profit taking. Take the drop as an opportunity to buy more at a "discount" 
I doubt you will see it jump for any amount of time during new product launches as usually the steady increases have come with quarterly financial announcements/updates.
I doubt you will see it jump for any amount of time during new product launches as usually the steady increases have come with quarterly financial announcements/updates.
powermac666 said:
Are you just playing with daveway00's mind? He says he's out at 60, and you say it'll stop moving at 59? Funny.
It's a little known fact that limit orders and stop-loss orders should be done at weird numbers because everybody sets their price targets at nice, comfortable factors of 5.
BTW, apple is totally overvalued right now. Anybody who expects to make money speculating with aapl should also expect to lose money speculating with aapl
BTW, apple is totally overvalued right now. Anybody who expects to make money speculating with aapl should also expect to lose money speculating with aapl
little profit taking at the end of Santa's rally (Sun baked is right).... I am waiting until the annual numbers come in before selling.
daveway00 said:
I thought it was overvalued anyway. At its high a couple years ago, right before it went bust overnight, it was at 70 bucks. The stock then split to 35 bucks roughly. Taking this into account, 60 bucks a share now is the equivelent of 120 bucks a share then. I just don't see what apple has done in the past couple of years to justify the price going up so much over what was at the time considered overvalued, especially since computer sales have been stsatic since then. Its all based on the iPod. Base a stock price on a single product, and its going to be volatile. But that's just my opinion.
Let's see, the stock is overvalued, there are a number of profit takers, the Nasdaq is setting itself up for a significant downturn in 2005, AAPL's RSI currently indicates an overbought level, the stock hit an engulfing line on the bearish side a couple days ago, its MACD reversed direction recently and the slow stochastics don't look favorable right now. Need any further elaboration?
a lot of people tried to buy right before and after the after-thanksgiving weekend which made the price go up more than it should be (IMO). i put in a market order to sell on that friday believing that at opening on monday it would spike. it sold at $69.
a lot of retail stock has this effect, low on friday, rise on monday.
i think that aapl is going to decline below $60 after christmas. in the days leading up to it you might see an increase. a good piece of advice is: if you are planning on leaving soon do it either the last chance you get before christmas or put in an order during the break and hope it jumps when the markets reopen.
next year however, i have no idea what aapls performance will be. too risky for my money. but you might want to stick around if you think it'll continue to rise.
a lot of retail stock has this effect, low on friday, rise on monday.
i think that aapl is going to decline below $60 after christmas. in the days leading up to it you might see an increase. a good piece of advice is: if you are planning on leaving soon do it either the last chance you get before christmas or put in an order during the break and hope it jumps when the markets reopen.
next year however, i have no idea what aapls performance will be. too risky for my money. but you might want to stick around if you think it'll continue to rise.
topicolo said:
True to an extent, but not really. It's not really "a little known fact", and it's not exactly "weird numbers" - at least not to those who are in touch with the market - I suppose to an outsider perhaps they would look weird. But when you take into account previous day highs/lows, levels of support and resistance, price points of classic patterns such as double tops/bottoms, gaps up/down, and to a lesser extent bid-ask spreads, the numbers aren't that "weird" and do in fact make sense to a degree. I know what you're saying though and on a high level you're correct.
Unless you're a very, very serious stock market junkie and have the time to follow every move and development like a hawk, the best selling strategy is to simply pick a number and enter it as a stop order (I use a closing price at the end of the week, minus a percentage). If it sells, it sells. No regrets, even if it goes up the next day. In fact that very thing happened to me today. AAPL hit my magic number this morning and I automatically sold some of my holdings. Then it ended up nearly a dollar. Oh well -- I made plenty. Greed kills.
IJ Reilly said:
the best strategy is to not invest in an ind. stock to begin with...
anyone serious about investing should not invest in apple (or any stock, for that matter) as a "fan." not a wise thing to do, unless it's your "play" money you can afford to take a hit.
jxyama said:
Not necessarily. "Buy what you know" is one of the oldest pieces of advice in investing. My investment in Apple has returned over 500%, so I think individuals can use their own knowledge to make money in the stock market.
jxyama said:
Err .... Can you share with us your advise in what to invest in for 2005. If you don't recommend stocks what else is out there. Please no rich dad poor dad real estate advise please
A prof of mine is touting commodity investments...
Hoef said:Err .... Can you share with us your advise in what to invest in for 2005. If you don't recommend stocks what else is out there. Please no rich dad poor dad real estate advise please
um, have you ever heard of diversified stock holdings? like an index fund?
it's also important to have as long of horizon as possible... investing "for" 2005 is probably not a good idea unless you are a professional who do this for a living.
IJ Reilly said:
i never said investing in a single stock wouldn't yield any return. obviously, not everyone can get a 500% return. and "using their own knowledge" is very overrated, imo. for every amateur investor who thinks he/she's the hot one "in the know," there are 10 ivy league PhD grads at goldman sachs spending every ounce of their energy trying to beat everyone else.
Hoef said:Err .... Can you share with us your advise in what to invest in for 2005. If you don't recommend stocks what else is out there. Please no rich dad poor dad real estate advise please
Plenty to invest in apart from simple stocks - income trusts, limited partnerships, convertible debentures, commodities, ETFs, index funds, SPDRs, iShares, etc. etc... Personally I dislike mutual funds... Or if you want to play stocks a different way, try the options game... plenty of investment choices to make out there...
jxyama said:
Mmm.... I am a firm believer of investing with goals. What use is a long term horizon if you don't have an objective? Furthermore, you can build your diversified stock holdings by investing in individual stocks (yes, single stocks). Easyway out are indexes of course but that is less fun. But if you are going to try, ETFs that indexes Brazil or Indonesia (my last free tip for 2004
). BTW... most of my ivy league class mates at finance institutions try to make over 50% return a year. I am happy with 20% portfolio performance.
Hoef said:Mmm.... I am a firm believer of investing with goals. What use is a long term horizon if you don't have an objective? Furthermore, you can build your diversified stock holdings by investing in individual stocks (yes, single stocks). Easyway out are indexes of course but that is less fun. But if you are going to try, ETFs that indexes Brazil or Indonesia (my last free tip for 2004
I completely agree, that's the way I invest as well. Some of my holdings are very long term (7+ years), some are long term (2-3 years) and some are short term <1 year). In fact, you could say I have my investing portfolio and investing strategy, and then my trading portfolio and trading strategy. I do day trading a lot, and just pop in/pop out of stocks. That way I can bring in a few hundred $$$ a month, sometimes more sometimes less, but I always have my longer term holdings as well. Diversity and balance is the key. And greed will get you nothing but trouble.
This is the reason I don't plan on buying AAPL shares anytime soon - they just don't seem like a good buy right now. Actually, I don't own any stock or other investments right now - I'm preparing to invest in the future, though.powermac666 said: