StratFor on Iraq

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Desertrat, May 22, 2004.

  1. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #1
    I've generally avoided a lot of the discussions about events of the efforts in Iraq. While venting is understandable, I'm oriented more toward efforts to analyze the "why?" stuff as objectively as I can, and try to figure out real-world solutions while considering politics as they are. The operative word is "try"; I don't have any idea that I'm always correct.

    Anyhow, I ran across this article: http://www.stratfor.com/corporate/index.neo?page=basicsample

    It's one of the few times somebody from StratFor has gone beyond their stated mission of analysis, offering some ideas for solutions.

    The fourth paragraph under "The Mission" is particularly interesting.

    'Rat
     
  2. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #2
    interesting piece. if his analysis of the real reason bush went into iraq is correct (a modified version of the wolfowitz plan), then all the stated reasons about a free iraqi people, WMD, and human rights is a bunch of crap.
     
  3. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #3
    No, really???!!?? :eek: :eek: :eek:
    I'm shocked. Shocked, I tell you.
     
  4. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #4
    Don't forget your winnings, Capt. Renault!
     
  5. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #5
    ...or to round up all the usual suspects.

    Speaking of which, welcome back.
     
  6. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #6
    Well, we all know who THEY are. And where they live. :cool:
     
  7. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #7
    thank you, I've just been busy with a few other things to post very much.
     
  8. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #8
    More important than this board? I'm shocked...
     
  9. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #9
    etc :)
     
  10. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #10
    I know and hang my head in shame! ;)
     
  11. Desertrat thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #11
    Seems to me a variation of an old theme is in order: "When you lose sight of your objective, DON'T redouble your efforts.

    We already have the example of Mogadishu as a warning about "nation building" efforts...

    I commented way back in my first days at this forum that I could see many valid reasons to go into Iraq, separate from the WMD issue. The apparent loss of sight of the long-teerm objective, plus this notion of democracy and nation building has contributed to this present can of worms.

    Separately, I've been tourguiding around the countryside. One of the comments about this country is that "they keep the river locked in a big stone box." So, a picture.

    "Rat
     

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  12. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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  13. radhak macrumors regular

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    #13
    nice pic. where is it?
     
  14. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    #14
    Closest thing I have seen to a viable solution, although I would have to wonder if it is politically viable, since this war has been presented as an ideological/humanitarian one...still this makes sense to me...
     
  15. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #15
    It certainly makes more sense than what's going on right now.
     
  16. trebblekicked macrumors 6502a

    trebblekicked

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    #16
    i've heard this thrown about quite a bit, and i have to wonder how true this is. seeing as the entire war and subsequent modified strategies are a direct response to this idea, there should be a way to prove it, back it up, verify it, etc. does anyone know how this was handled?
     
  17. Desertrat thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #17
    radhak, it's the mouth of Santa Elena Canyon on the Rio Grande, in Big Bend National Park. The river's flowing toward you; Mexico on the left and Texas on the right. Terlingua Creek enters the river from the right, at the foot of the mesa.

    trebblekicked, everything I've read indicates the Arab world is as strong on "machismo" as is Mexico. "Manhood is all". That's part of the "why" of the reaction to the picture of a woman holding a leash on an Arab man.

    In some of bin Laden commentaries, publicized since 9/11, he stated that our retreat from Mogadishu showed him there would be no significant response to any action he took against us. He commented sneeringly at the Tomahawk salvos after the embassy bombings in Africa; he apparently expected no more than that after the WTC event.

    I recommend Bernard Lewis' "What Went Wrong?" Western Impact and Middle Eastern Response." Lewis is a noted scholar of middle eastern affairs. He's a Professor of Near Eastern Studies Emeritus at Princeton.

    'Rat
     
  18. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

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    #18
    Thank you, 'Rat. That was a fantastic article. Great reading, well written.

    And makes sense for a change, something I was certain was no longer possible in this "war."
     
  19. Desertrat thread starter macrumors newbie

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    #19
    A friend of mine emailed me the following URL, asking for my opinion. I hesitate to post it, because of the needless "I hate liberals" that's in it. That sort of blame-game makes it more difficult to assess the accuracy or correctness of the conclusions.

    But, http://www.insiderreport.net/clash_1-2_print.html has some points to ponder. Just sorta edit out all the emotive words...

    'Rat
     
  20. 3rdpath macrumors 68000

    3rdpath

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    #20
    an excellent article.

    i agree with the strategic slant but i think it ignores the political suicide that would ensue...not that i disagree with political suicide-i just don't think any of our politicians has the gumption to face it with honor. once we state
    " govern as you like" and move our troops west, the power vacuum and the unavoidable bloodbath that follows would permanently stain us.

    of course, staying with the current " last man standing " strategy isn't going to win the war either. this is a no win situation and i predict the major shift in u.s. startegy won't occur until there is a suitable distance in time beyond this administration to fend off accusations of "giving in to the enemy"....say 2008.

    that's a long time and a lot of lives and money away.
     
  21. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

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    #21
    You're assuming that Bush won't win in November, are you?
     
  22. 3rdpath macrumors 68000

    3rdpath

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    #22
    actually, no.

    i think whoever wins in 2004 will stay the course...i don't like it, but that's my prediction.
     

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