Survey Sees Pent-Up iPad Demand, Some Cannibalization of Other Apple Products

[MacRumors]

In research note released this morning, RBC Capital Markets analyst Mike Abramsky shares the results of a ChangeWave survey of over 3,200 respondents earlier this month revealing pent-up demand for Apple's forthcoming iPad, with demand even exceeding that for the original iPhone in 2007. According to the survey, 13% of respondents are either somewhat or very likely to purchase an iPad, compared to only 9% in a similar survey conducted prior to the launch of the original iPhone.

Percentage of respondents likely to buy iPad (Feb 2010) and iPhone (Apr 2007)
The survey also provides an interesting glimpse at model preferences for potential iPad buyers, with the highest percentages of buyers planning to purchase the low-end 16 GB Wi-Fi-only model at $499 and the high-end 64 GB Wi-Fi + 3G model at $829. Demand for the various capacities among the two iPad lines clearly shows opposing relationships, with budget-conscious customers focused on the Wi-Fi-only model opting for only 16 GB of storage while those springing for the added 3G connectivity are also preferring to max out on storage at 64 GB.

Model preferences for potential iPad buyers
The report also notes that only 8% of customers have balked at iPad pricing, significantly lower than the 28% who were unwilling to pay Apple's prices for the original iPhone prior to its launch.

In examining probable cannibalization of existing Apple products, the RBC/ChangeWave survey found 25% of respondents planning to delay purchasing one or more other Apple products in favor of obtaining an iPad, with the iPhone, iPod, and Mac notebooks all seeing potential hits in the 9-10% range. Cannibalization appears significantly lower for Mac desktop machines and the Apple TV.

Percentages of planned iPad buyers delaying purchases of other Apple products
(Sums to 33% due to some respondents delaying purchase of more than one product)
While the survey results suggest possible strong early adoption of the iPad and upside compared to previously-estimated customer purchasing plans, RBC continues to predict a base case of five million iPads sold for calendar year 2010, adding $2.4 billion in revenue and an additional $0.33 per share of earnings to Apple's bottom line.

Article Link: Survey Sees Pent-Up iPad Demand, Some Cannibalization of Other Apple Products

 

[GeekLawyer]

iPad is going to be huge for Apple and huge for Apple consumers.

Just like the iPod... just the iPhone.

I only hope I can get one on launch day... whenever that might be. The pent-up demand could make that difficult.

 

[BlizzardBomb]

A bit stunned at the proportion of people wanting the $829 model. You could buy a very decent laptop at that price with a real OS.

 

[MMX]

A bit stunned at the proportion of people wanting the $829 model. You could buy a very decent laptop at that price with a real OS.

iPad runs real OS, just not desktop OS as we know it.

 

[*LTD*]

My friends, the Great Experiment... the iPad, ready for trial runs.

This is the future.

 

[bbplayer5]

I still cant figure out why anyone would want that piece of crap.

 

[bbplayer5]

iPad runs real OS, just not desktop OS as we know it.

A real Desktop OS can handle more than 1 thing at a time. This piece of crap only handles 1... Laughable.

 

[MMX]

I still cant figure out why anyone would want that piece of crap.

I still can't figure out why anyone wouldn't want that piece of crap.

 

[*LTD*]

I still cant figure out why anyone would want that piece of crap.

That's because your head is stuck in the MacRumors technophile bubble.

The potential of the iPad platform is insane. It was apparent from the first minute it was demo'd by Jobs.

Right after, Future Shock hit everyone like runaway train.

 

[MMX]

A real Desktop OS can handle more than 1 thing at a time. This piece of crap only handles 1... Laughable.

Do some research first. One thing is for 3rd party apps and it will probably end with 4.0 OS version. Laughing doesn't add credit to you POS posts, just makes you look...

 

[PeterQVenkman]

I think the survey that says people are delaying purchases of desktops may not be taking into account the other reasons for waiting on that purchase.

I know of a lot of people who want one, but need to get their hands on one first. I"m one of them.

 

[Vol7ron]

My friends, the Great Experiment... the iPad, ready for trial runs.

This is the future.

I hear its suppose to have flash....

of course we all know that the Excelsior was a failure....

 

[baryon]

It's funny how almost everyone says the iPad is lame and that it lacks this and that, and then you see that more people want one than the number of people who wanted the iPhone in 2007... Knowing that the iPhone was something very very new at that time, and the iPad isn't something so unusual in today's world.

I don't think I want an iPad, but it's not because I think it lacks anything, it's because I prefer to spend all the money I can on a good pro computer, and I'm more interested in desktop apps like Photoshop, and I don't much care for mobility. But I totally see who the iPad is meant for and it makes sense.

 

[Stetrain]

I don't think Apple worries too much about product cannibalization of their more expensive products. They probably make about the same amount of profit from an iPad as a Macbook, if not more. The profit margin is certainly higher.

 

[talkingfuture]

I think the mass market will show just how popular this device will be. In 12 months time we'll be laughing at the idea of this being 'crap'. Just wait until there are lots of custom apps available for it that utilize that extra screen space.

 

[Small White Car]

A bit stunned at the proportion of people wanting the $829 model. You could buy a very decent laptop at that price with a real OS.

Let me guess, you were one of the people who didn't understand the iPod Mini. The fact that it went on to be Apple's biggest hit to that date just confused you even more, didn't it?

Look, it's ok to be a techno nerd that hangs out in places like this. I'm one too. But please don't make the mistake of thinking that we are normal. We're not.

 

[RainbowMac]

I can see getting the cheapest version as people would like to try it out before they spend any more money on it.

 

[sanPietro98]

A real Desktop OS can handle more than 1 thing at a time. This piece of crap only handles 1... Laughable.

First, it's not meant to be a "Desktop OS".

Secondly, the limitation of only 1 app is a limit of the OS, not the hardware. Granted, this is speculation, but I would be shocked if iPhoneOS 4.0 doesn't have some end-user multi-tasking abilities.

Personally, I see great potential in this device. I wouldn't call it "magical" like Steve Jobs did, but I do think it's a game-changer.

 

[cia33]

Just a minute, folks...

Rule of Thumb. Never buy a new model of anything. Newbies are guinea pigs. Improvements ALWAYS come later, after the beta bugs are taken care of (maybe heat, screen problems, whatever). And what about Flash?

 

[macduke]

iPad has the potential to be bigger than the iPhone. People will be surprised when they hold one. It does about 95% of what normal people use their computers for. It does about 50% or less of what us geeks use our computers for. Geeks are what--five percent of the population at best? I'm not going to open up Photoshop, Illustrstor, Indesign, and Dreamweaver on the iPad. It's for bringing to class, using in the livingroom, it's for my wife. I'll use my MBP for my real work. It's not like CS4/5 would run on iPad even if it did have full OSX.

As for type, I'm still deciding between 32gb WIFI and 32gb 3g. I don't want to wait another month for 3g.

 

[Small White Car]

I still cant figure out why anyone would want that piece of crap.

When I don't understand something I try to go out and learn about it.

What I don't do is go on message boards telling everyone about how I don't know things. Why would I brag about my own deficiencies? That's very odd to me.

You're not the only one here doing this, which is why I'm pointing it out. I'm constantly shocked by the number of people on the internet who seem so proud of their lack of knowledge, like it's a good thing.

There are plenty of ways around here to help you figure this out if you want to take the time to fix this.

 

[phpmaven]

The scary thing is that Apple hasn't even done any advertising for it yet. Most people don't even know the iPad exists. Once we get closer to launch and Apple starts rolling out commercials, you will see potential demand skyrocket. You can bellyache all you want about it's supposed shortcomings, but it's going to be a huge success. I for one, will be getting one on launch day.

 

[Cleve]

A survey shows a lot of potential

Over at 9to5mac, there is a survey of potential iPad purchasers with about 70% of the readers saying that they'll get an iPad. The numbers are strikingly similar to Changewave's results.

Interestingly, the most popular versions are the cheapest and most expensive.
http://9to5mac.com/node/14395

 

[Night Spring]

Rule of Thumb. Never buy a new model of anything. Newbies are guinea pigs. Improvements ALWAYS come later, after the beta bugs are taken care of (maybe heat, screen problems, whatever). And what about Flash?

I know that next-generation models always improve on the first, but the iPad as it is now is "good enough" for what I want it to do. By buying now, I'll have an extra year of enjoying the iPad and all it can do NOW, and if part of my experience includes acting as "guinea pigs" for improving the device, that's a reasonable compromise I'm willing to make.

 

[MMX]

iPad has the potential to be bigger than the iPhone. People will be surprised when they hold one. It does about 95% of what normal people use their computers for. It does about 50% or less of what us geeks use our computers for. Geeks are what--five percent of the population at best? I'm not going to open up Photoshop, Illustrstor, Indesign, and Dreamweaver on the iPad. It's for bringing to class, using in the livingroom, it's for my wife. I'll use my MBP for my real work. It's not like CS4/5 would run on iPad even if it did have full OSX.

As for type, I'm still deciding between 32gb WIFI and 32gb 3g. I don't want to wait another month for 3g.

Week ago I was PC guy, now I own i7 iMac and I think I will be buying one, because I need to replace my Dell notebook with something that is good for studies. iPad meets my needs perfectly.