Swing States in the Election Year

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by indifference, Sep 29, 2004.

  1. indifference macrumors regular

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    #1
    NPR sometime during the beginning of the summer about the elections, did a report about swing states saying that Washington was a swing state. Recently in the summer in the top 12 Washington wasn't there! So either Washington was no longer a swing stae, or it just wasn't in the top 12. I had run into people not knowing who they were going to vote for, So they were swing voeters. Are any of your stats Swing States? I wonder what constitues a swing state? -best
     
  2. stoid macrumors 601

    stoid

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    #2
    Because of the way the electoral college is set up and because some states are so heavily Democrat or Republican, in many states, your vote really can't make a difference. However, there are a few states with enough representatives in the electoral college and an even enough party split that your vote counts. These are labelled as 'swing states' and are more likely to get campaigning and personal appearances by the candidates.
     
  3. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #3
    afaik, a swing state is one in which the poll margin between the two candidates is less than the margin of error.
     
  4. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

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    #4
    And some are more swinging than others.

    For instance, New Hampshire with its 4 electoral votes stands likely to receive significantly less campaign attention than say, Ohio, Michigan or my state of Pennsylvania.

    I imagine if California was up for grabs, both candidates would stay out here for at least half their campaign, 'cause it'd be the swingiest state around!
     
  5. indifference thread starter macrumors regular

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    #5
    ah I was also wondering what are some of the swing states, and also to me though it seems the parties are focusing more on areas where the less votes were in the last election, was that true also?
     
  6. slughead macrumors 68030

    slughead

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    #6
    Well Florida is more than likely going to Bush, I believe that's the biggest swing state.
     
  7. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

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    #7
    latimes.com has an excellent interactive map and a feature that allows you to go back and see previous elections' results.
     
  8. indifference thread starter macrumors regular

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    #8
    cool, what states are you guys in that are swing states? how are people voting in your state? Are you undecided at this point or not voting at all?
     
  9. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    #9
    I am in Oregon. Which is, or is not, a swing state, depending on who you ask. We were a big deal a few months ago, but now Ohio and Wisconsin seem to get all the Press.

    People are voting in booths here, just like most states...Portland, where I live, is pretty Liberal, but the rest of the state is conservative. It is a wierd kind of conservative, though...as we have the "assisted-suicide" law and liberal marijuana laws, plus a concern for the environment and environmental protections.

    I will be voting for Kerry.
     
  10. SiliconAddict macrumors 603

    SiliconAddict

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    #10
    Minnesota I think is a swing state. Traditionally, well actually from what I understand always, its gone dem but this year its going to be close enough that Shrub has been out here a ton of times, as has Kerry. Nov 2 I’m driving every friend I know to the polls. Hell I will pick people up off the street if they want to vote.

    As for my vote. Decided? Hehe. I decided 4 years ago. Anyone but Shrub. If another Republican was running along side Shrub and I knew Kerry was going to lose I would vote Repub just to get him out of office.

    Unfortunately, unless a miracle happens with these debates, it looks like Kerry is going to lose. I've galvanized myself to the fact and bracing for the impact of what is going to happen with 4 more years with that man. I’ve gone through a ulcer and dealing with a bout of depression that I fully attribute to Shrub. I hate him with an intensity that it really isn’t healthy.
    I for the life of me can’t understand how anyone with common sense could vote for him. Seriously. If you look at that man’s record over the last 4 years. Look at that man’s history. Look at what he’s done in office. How could ANYONE other then die hard republicans vote for him!?!? I’m not playing this up. How?
    Clinton got a blowjob and lied on stand and there was talk of impeachment. Bush lied to the American public about the reasons for going to war. And 1,000+ American have paid the price and 10,000 plus Iraqi’s have died all over a lie to the American public and people want to reelect this Shrub?!?!? WTF is wrong with this picture?!?!?!?

    And don’t give this report BS. You damn well better be more sure about why you are taking your country to war beyond a simple damn report.
    Make no mistake about it if Clinton had been in office, and he went to the American people and said “Lets liberate Iraq from that dictator and it will cost the lives of 1,000+ of our soldiers and billions of dollars we would have told him to go **** himself.
    No Bush does an end run around the truth and the people of this country want to reelect him ove3r it. Are the people of this country blind, deaf, and dumb!??! Does Bush simply have to utter the words “Fight terrorism” and “Winning the battle over terrorism” and people swoon over him?!?! Did everyone forget Afghanistan where we are still in a battle for control over that country!??! Did everyone forget the mastermind behind 9|11??!? What ever happened to the hunt for Bin Ladden? What has happened to this country where a mans actions and what he’s done are less important then the BS words that spill out of his mouth.
    I quite honestly can’t take this anymore. I personally think Shrub could pull out a shotgun, shoot Kerry, claim it was to secure America’s freedom and not only would he get away with it; his approval rating would probably increase because he used the words America and Freedom. ARRRGGGHHHH!!!

    PS- And I’m under no illusions that Kerry is perfect. I personally wasn’t rooting for him initially but frankly, him vs. Shrub. For me it’s a no brainer.
     
  11. wwworry macrumors regular

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    Mar 23, 2002
    #11
    I don't think Kerry is going to lose. You have ignore the gallup polls as they oversample republicans.

    The way you can tell if you are in a swing state is: Swing states have more fun.
     
  12. solvs macrumors 603

    solvs

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    #12
    I'm in WA too, and according to the voters registration person I talked to today, there are a lot of new people who are registering to vote. Most of the polls are geared towards people who have voted before. I think Kerry is already doing well here, but they are pushing the lower polls #'s in an attempt to make people want to push over the scales. Conservatives show similar #'s to prove they are winning, but as we know from the last election polls mean nothing.

    I think we are a swing state, but not as much as others. Most people think WA is going to vote a certain way already. Political analysis is about as accurate as computer analysis, and we all know how that is, so you do the math. :p
     

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