The Apple Phone Flop

Discussion in ' News Discussion' started by MacBytes, Dec 7, 2006.

  1. macrumors bot



    Category: Apple Hardware
    Link: The Apple Phone Flop
    Description:: CNET's Michael Kanellos says Apple should think again if it believes it can make a phone to match iPod's success.

    Posted on
    Approved by Mudbug
  2. macrumors 68040


    I love it. No one ACTUALLY knows if the thing even EXISTS, and they're already calling it as a failure. :rolleyes:
  3. macrumors Core

    that is the great thing.
    interviews, polls, columns all about a product that hasn't been released, and may never be released. :D
  4. Moderator emeritus


    To be fair... a decent amount of MR members are already planning on buying this non-existent product. :D
  5. NAG
    macrumors 68030


    He admitted he was a troll in the first few sentences so why should we care?

  6. macrumors regular

    This made my day!

    It's predictable. If Apple got into medical devices, people would come out of Steve Jobs' speech proclaiming "The iBag is the easiest, most user-friendly colostomy device I've ever encountered."
  7. macrumors regular


    As perhaps the biggest Apple fan ever (Loyal user since age 3.5, and I'm 25 now) I hate to say this, bu he has a point. The iPod solved some huge issues with mp3 players - all of them, in fact. Current phones really don't have those issues. It's next to impossible for Apple to make a cell phone that is on the same order of magnitude better than the current offerings that the iPod was to mp3 players.

    Beware fellow Apple-heads. Beware.
  8. Moderator emeritus


    Some things don't appear to be problems until after a solution has been found... often times we're used to do things in such a way and can't dream of a better way... maybe they'll figure out a better way? I doubt I'll get one though. My RAZR works fine with my Mac for what I need it for.
  9. macrumors 68030


    But current phones that double as mp3 players DO have issues. If it was as easy to sync my phone to my music as it is to my contacts and calendars, I might be sold.
  10. macrumors Core

    there aren't issues with cell phones? hardly. there is no decent smart phone out there in my opinion and there is no solid music-phone offering either. if Apple plays its cards right a Music Phone would be great. tied to the iTunes Store it will only help because there is a reliable way to get good music for it, also its got the seamless integration built in with iTunes already... there are a lot of ways phones can improve, and i can see Apple doing it, its a risk, true, but possible
  11. macrumors 68040


    I dunno about you, but I have yet to find a single cell phone interface out there that I think is really particularly good (Verizon takes extra care to **** up decent phones by putting their ****** UI on all of them). They're servicable, but there is definitely room for improvement. And if anyone can create a great music player/phone combo with an intuitive UI, it's Apple.
  12. macrumors regular

    If Apple jumps into the phone market, Steve Jobs is gunna loose his iShorts.

    I love OSX, and i'm a huge Apple fan.. but i'm not going to run out and buy anything Steve wipes his ass with and announces as the latest greatest incredibly fantastic thing.

    But there are folks who will do just that.

    The writer of that column states the same thing i've said since I first heard this iPhone rumor.. that Apple stuck when the MP3 market was in it's infancy, with a product that not only was leaps and bounds more capable, but much smaller, and easy to use.

    That isn't the case in the cell phone market of today.
  13. macrumors 68000


    Here's what I think is wrong with this guy's argument:

    He says that the iPod was a "1-time" occurrence because Apple was the first to have a hard-drive based MP3 player. That's not true. There were 20 GB hard drive based players out BEFORE the 5 GB iPod, but they were SIGNIFICANTLY bigger than the iPod. Apple's strength was in design. And guess what? Apple's strength will still be in design. Not to mention marketing. Apple can definitely apply those to the iPhone

    True, he mentions that the iMac and Mac mini haven't become "hits", but he's ignoring that it's a TOTALLY different ballgame getting people to buy Macs than it is to buy a gadget like the iPod or iPhone. The reason is Microsoft's monopoly. This point was driven home a few weeks ago when my girlfriend was shopping for a laptop. She loved the MacBook and struggled with the decision, but in the end she bought a Sony Vaio. The reason? Her job largely consists of producing Microsoft Office documents (Word and PowerPoint), and she was scared of compatibility issue. I explained to her that Office 2004 for Mac actually shouldn't have any compatibility issues and that anyway she could use Parallels, but it was all to no avail. It's REALLY, REALLY hard to get people to switch away from an environment that they've been accustomed to their whole computing life.

    With the iPhone, though, this isn't an issue. Phones have all kinds of different operating systems (Windows Mobile, Symbian, Palm OS), but there is NO dominant operating system. If there is any "standard" mobile application platform, it's actually Java Mobile. And I'm sure the iPhone will have Java support, so it will be able to run Opera mini, the Google Mobile apps, the many Java-based games, etc. Point is, customers just doesn't have the same kind of barrier to buying an iPhone than they would with buying a Mac. It's really more akin to the iPod situation.

    Finally, the major point is that the initial iPhone WILL BE an iPod!!! It will be marketed as an iPod nano with phone features built in, not the other way around. And the nano is the most popular iPod model. The fact is, a lot of people that were thinking of getting the nano will opt to just get the iPhone instead. And a lot of people that were ready to get a new phone will opt for the iPhone for the same reason that they are flocking to phones like the LG Chocolate or the Sony W810i. Combine these two populations and you have a monster hit at least by mobile phone industry standards.

    Yes, the phone marketplace is crowded. And yes, the article is right that the iPhone will just be another gadget on the shelf. Of course the iPhone won't achieve the same market share as the iPod! But if the iPhone becomes the best selling phone of all time (ecliping the RAZR), would it be a failure if it didn't get iPod-type market share? That's a completely asinine notion.

    Here's my prediction: the iPhone will be:

    - the best-selling iPod (and it *is* an iPod)
    - one of the top-selling phone models if not *the* top phone model
    - one of Apple's biggest sources of revenue if not *the* top source of revenue

    In summary, the author is a blathering idiot and I can't believe he actually gets paid to write this crap.
  14. macrumors 6502a

    But all of this assumes that Steve Jobs is an idiot and he's not. He knows full well that most mobile phones are decent enough ... the only reason to create the iPhone is defensive, to defend the iPod turf. So it doesn't have to be better than everything else, it just has to be as stylish as the Moto with a better interface + a true iPod attached. It doesn't have to change the world, it merely needs to be there when iPod users decide that they really want to merge their iPods and phone ... if they ever decide to do so. If this product fails, it will more than likely be because consumers aren't interested in that merger ... and that outcome would suit Apple just fine.
  15. macrumors 68040

    Scarlet Fever

    i dont believe Apple are going to be trying to take over the cell phone industry; just bring a new team into the game. If Apple can execute it well, people will want to buy it, but i don't believe, and i hope Apple doesn't, that it will dominate the market like the iPod has.
  16. macrumors member

    Current Phones don't sync well with the mac. Accept maybe the Treo. Also some sony phones
  17. macrumors 68000


    Oh but it *does* solve an issue! :)

    Combining a phone with a music player.

    As I see it phones are converging and trying to provide 3 things in addition to basic phone/texting:
    1) camera
    2) music player
    3) mobile web/email

    Various phones combine these to a varying degree of succcess, but the iPhone will be *the* music player phone. Is it an order of maginitue better? No, but neither was the iPod. The article was *wrong* in stating that Apple was the first hard-drive based player. It wasn't, but it was by far the smallest and best-designed. Likewise, the iPhone will be by far the best music-player phone for people who value that functionality most highly as a phone's "secondary" function.
  18. macrumors 6502a


    dont you think it would have to achieve the same market share to become Apple's biggest sources of revenue?
  19. macrumors 6502

    I still think (and hope) the phone will not have anything to with playing music... wouldn't that encroach on iPod sales? Now have it be a phone that hooks in with iLife and .mac and is a portable OS X with a USB, FW, or Airport card and I would buy one.
  20. macrumors 68030


    So you're saying that it's impossible for someone to design a phone that's "leaps and bounds more capable" than what we have today? Yikes. That's a world I don't want to live in. :eek:
  21. macrumors member


    check this out...

    i dont think so...the cell phone market is way bigger than the mp3 market....something like 200 million people in the US have a cell phone, compared to 42 million iPods sold worldwide....even if apple gets 1% thats 2 of those 42 million iPod owners who will upgrade to the iPhone eventually.....for what 2-3 hundred a pop....thats money....thats a breakthrough ...

    think about that for awhile...

  22. macrumors regular

    Apple doesn't have to be number one or even at the top to be profitable. If they've shown anything this past decade, it's that they do best when they go a little tangent to their competitors, not directly head to head. If this device exists and it has some unique functionality that'll take a bit for others to catch on to, they'll make a killing.
  23. macrumors 68000


    That's exactly how I felt when using a Mac for a while. People are so handycapped by Windows that's it's hard to switch over to something more useable. I remember doing things on the PC mostly using workarounds and geeky tools that mess up the whole system and made me reinstall windows every 4 months or so. Or take printing for example...
    On the Mac now, it just all works, I can even back up the whole Macintosh HD to an external drive, and boot from the external. Search in Mail works (unline Outlook express or Thinderbird).
    It's all about a good User Interface. All phones I used so far that had a color screen sucked in that regard. The old Nokias rocked, they were fast in terms of navigation and let you do what you wanted to. Now they look fancyer, but it takes 3 times as long to place a call from a number in your phone list.

    I say "Go Apple, bring on the phone!". I'd wait for reviews like I did for my Macbook and probably buy one the second week after it's out.
  24. macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

    The default position of most CNET writers when it comes to Apple products. Somebody should check this guy's previous work. I'll bet he said something similar about the iPod a few years ago. I notice he debunks others unnamed about their (suspiciously bogus-sounding) Apple product predictions, but doesn't confess to a single one of his own.
  25. macrumors 68000


    What would be wrong with the iPhone encroaching on iPod sales? It would only be a problem if the iPhone margins were lower than the iPod margins, but I doubt that will be the case. Apple will be able to afford a higher retail price for the iPhone to make up for the higher productions costs, since most users get something like a $200 rebate from the phone company when buying a phone anyway.

    So think of it this way, you can buy an iPhone for the same price as an iPod nano (with 2 year contract), and Apple makes as much or *more* profit from your purchase as it would have from you purchasing the equivalent iPod nano. It's win-win-win for you, Apple, and not to mention the phone company (since you signed a 2 year commitment to them).

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