The coming war in Iran

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Thanatoast, Jan 16, 2005.

  1. Thanatoast macrumors 6502a

    Thanatoast

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    #1
    link
    Alright, who wins the prize for predicting it first? I theorized on it with my friends, but never thought they'd actually try it. Where are they getting the resources to do this? Can they snooker their 51% into believing that Iran is a threat worthy of another war?
     
  2. Blue Velvet Moderator emeritus

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    #2
    Perhaps some of that information may be made available to Israel...

    Didn't they attack and destroy a reactor in Iraq in the mid-1980s?
     
  3. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #3
    who do they need to convince? the public? heck, that'd probably benefit the GOP in the mid-terms. congress? i don't see them growing a spine anytime soon.

    when bush believes he has a mandate from both the public and from god, why should he have to pander to anyone's opinion anymore?
     
  4. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    Indeed. If they don't know it already. Israel's security and intelligence services are no slouches.

    Curiously, pre-revolutionary Iran and Israel had such deep and entrenched bureaucratic relations, that they probably persist to this day despite vehement denials by Iranian authorities. Iranians, being an "old" people are somewhat respect and are fascinated by Jews, as they are another "old" people.

    Anyhow, I can't see the US getting involved in Iran militarily. We don't have the troop strength. It would be counter-productive to the WOT and create regional chaos not seen in the ME since I don't know when. Iran is also the most pro-American and democratic-leaning country in the ME, with the populace tired and jaded from the "revolution". We would futher galvanize Muslim opinion against the US and the West. We would be destroying one of the most sophisticated countries in the Region, a potential trading partner and strategic, if not ideological, ally. The US does not have the money and to even hope to come up with it, Bush would need to sacrifice his "signature" Domestic programs, such as SS overhaul and permanent tax-cuts. Congressional Republicans have already been chafing over the fiscal responsibility issue. If Bin Laden had written the script, it couldn't be any better for his interests.

    I just don't see it. All I can guess is that this is all for bargaining power with Iran over various issues. In that sense it is somewhat logical, in that we may be able to bluff our way into getting concessions from the Iranian government that serve our interests. Our reckless nature in Iraq, much like that of Nixon in the late(r) stages of Vietnam, may somewhat impress/confuse Iran much like Nixon's actions did to China and the USSR. Furthermore, an actual assault on Iran would severely disrupt oil supply, leaving Saudi Arabia as the only ME major supplier, which would be under intense destabilizing pressures itself in the wake of further hostile intervention in the Region by a country charged with it's own security. Pakistan would likely get very nervous and is hardly a stable polity on a good day and it has nuclear capabilities. This in turn would concern India. Gas prices would skyrocket. Europe would be aghast. The Russians might take advantage of Iranian weakness/preoccupation to further and/or cement it's former strategically-located and/or oil rich caucasus satellites and control the future of the Caspian Sea oil reserves and pipeline revenue and infrastructure, which Iran now prevents. This is unlikely to assist US interests.

    So it is imo, just a rattling of sabers, so to speak. We may attack the Administration for poor tactical/logistical choices in executing the Iraqi affair, of even of the viability of their apparent strategy with regards to the same. We may find their domestic policies foolish and selfish. We may laugh at Bush's gaffes. Yet I am not prepared to accept that a government full of professional FSO staff and experts, complicated geo-strategic goals, big domestic ideas full of potential political capital for the GOP and most of all, a hearty self-interest, would do something so monumentally stupid. This is qualitatively different from Iraq. No way.
     
  5. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    I don't know, that could easily trigger WW III.

    I can't help but be appalled at the utter gall and stupidity that they might even be thinking about attacking Iran, when they're throwing everything they've got at Iraq and it's going to Hell in a handcart.
     
  6. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #6
    I wouldn't expect Israel to even be tempted to attack Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel's threat comes from Arab nations, or which Iran is not one. In fact the two countries for a long while had a common enemy in Iraq.
     
  7. Xtremehkr macrumors 68000

    Xtremehkr

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    Iran or Syria, doesn't matter, how are the already thin armed forces going to handle this?

    I'll just skip over the whole requirement for actual justification when it comes to starting a war anymore. As long as it benefits us we'll repeat any old excuse about WMDs/Terrorism/Evil Dictators/Fighting them there and not here/Spreading Freedom and Democracy that suits us on that particular day.

    Draft?
     
  8. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #8
    i assume it would be the forces currently in iraq. elections are soon, you know, and the iraq army is nearly ready, of course, so 'fore too long the iraqis will be able to handle their own affairs. mission accomplished and forging ahead to iran.
     
  9. Xtremehkr macrumors 68000

    Xtremehkr

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    #9
    That's being very optimistic, I think the Iraqi Army is doomed myself. We are still technically fighting a front in Iraq, would it be smart to open another front at this point?

    Do you think Tony Blair would help this time? Do you think anyone would help this time?
     
  10. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #10
    from this report on seymour hersh's latest column
    and in case anyone thinks iran is the last stop:
    scared yet?
     
  11. Xtremehkr macrumors 68000

    Xtremehkr

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    #11
    No I meant about the Iraqi Army being able to be an effective force...
     
  12. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    #12
    This shouldn't come as a surprise to anyone who's been to the PNAC website...
     
  13. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #13
    ah.
     
  14. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    #14
    yes.

    If you want to see Hersh talk about this, there is a short clip on the BBC's website.
     
  15. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    Thanks mate...brief, but succint.

    I still stand by my original assertion that a stike or military intervention in Iran will not happen and that if anything, any tactical intelligence-gathering is to be used for leverage in bargaining with them.

    Ideological zeal or not, this just will not fly politically imo.
     
  16. Thanatoast thread starter macrumors 6502a

    Thanatoast

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    #16
    He's gone mad. He's tilting at windmills in a misguided effort to secure his legacy and spread freedom by way of high-grade explosives.

    I can't even begin to conceive of the mind it would take to even consider this course of action. Invade everyone? Rummy and Dubya need to be locked in rubber rooms.
     
  17. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #17
    I don't see any all-out assault on Iran this side of their launch of a missile against some other country.

    We don't have the manpower to attack, win and occupy. It's just not there. Further, absent some initial, hostile action by Iran, I don't think enough of the public would be in support--and I think that's well known to the Administration. You don't go to war with a 10% support level.

    I can believe there are some who think groups of sneaky-pete SpecOps people might be able to do some sort of good, but I've expected that since 9/11. I could approve, I guess, but there are beaucoup caveats and many problems with mission-selection. My negative view stems from doubt as to the wisdom of the selectors of those missions. Too much potential for "blowback".

    'Rat
     
  18. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #18
    To be brutally honest, I also expected special operations in wake of 9-11. Certain people would just disappear. The CIA could take lessons on that little trick from the Mossad. What I didn't expect was the invasion and occupation of Iraq, and the inflammation of passions against the US to such an extent that everything the US does in the world is greeted with suspicion if not fear, even by our friends.
     
  19. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #19
    don't forget my prediction that overt action against iran would be precipitated by some kind of iranian nuclear (or chem, or bio) incident, greatly increasing the approval rating.
     
  20. Xtremehkr macrumors 68000

    Xtremehkr

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    #20
    'Osama has been spotted in Iran'!, coming to a right wing media outlet near you.

    Atrocities and Genocide in Iran! they're leaders are inhuman and have no respect for Human Rights or the Geneva Convention.

    Iran capable of launching an attack on the US in less than 45 minutes!

    Iran believed to have purchased mobile weapons labs from Iraq!

    Iranians say bad things about Bush Sr and hate christians. Want to make you into Muslims!

    Iranians hate freedom! Your Freedom!

    Iranians will welcome us with parades and flower petals when we liberate them!

    Invading Iraq should never have had more than 10% support. It doesn't take that much.
     
  21. Xtremehkr macrumors 68000

    Xtremehkr

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    #21
    Iran: We can repel US attack

    Not entirely sure about that, but I know that Iran is going to be a lot more difficult than Iraq was. Before and after the Mission Accomplished banner goes up.
     
  22. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

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    #22
    which begs the question, has iraq repelled the US invasion? and if not, are they on their way to doing so?
     
  23. Desertrat macrumors newbie

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    #23
    "...has iraq repelled the US invasion? and if not, are they on their way to doing so?"

    Zim, at this point, I'd say no, and no. A year from now? I dunno.

    The Sunni Triangle is a serious problem, sure. Even there, though, there is nowhere near majority hostility. The other 14 (?) provinces are not doing badly.

    'Rat
     
  24. Xtremehkr macrumors 68000

    Xtremehkr

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    #24
    Under or unpopulated areas don't really count. No one wants to control empty desert before they control populated regions.

    Let's focus on the regions that count and which ones we are having the most problems in. If we can't control the most important ones, the less important ones are even more vulnerable.
     
  25. Chip NoVaMac macrumors G3

    Chip NoVaMac

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    #25
    Surely GWB can't be that stupid to think that the American people will fall for his lies for a second time.
     

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