THE DAY OF PREDICTION THREAD

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by themadchemist, Nov 2, 2004.

  1. themadchemist macrumors 68030

    themadchemist

    Joined:
    Jan 31, 2003
    Location:
    Chi Town
    #1
    It's close enough that you can give us an electoral vote count. Also, state by state if you like. Here I go: Kerry 272 Bush 266

    Kerry
    California
    Connecticut
    Delaware
    DC
    Hawaii
    Illinois
    Maine
    Maryland
    Massachusetts
    Michigan
    Minnesota
    New Hampshire
    New Jersey
    New York
    Ohio
    Oregon
    Pennsylvania
    Rhode Island
    Vermont
    Washington
    Wisconsin

    Bush
    Alabama
    Alaska
    Arizona
    Arkansas
    Colorado
    Florida
    Georgia
    Idaho
    Indiana
    Iowa
    Kansas
    Kentucky
    Louisiana
    Mississippi
    Missouri
    Montana
    Nebraska
    New Mexico
    North Carolina
    North Dakota
    Oklahoma
    South Carolina
    South Dakota
    Tennessee
    Texas
    Utah
    Virginia
    West Virginia
    Wyoming
     
  2. SlowX macrumors member

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    May 16, 2001
    Location:
    Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN
    #2
    Best I can guess is...

    Sox in 4?
    heh

    Sorry, I have no real guess.
    I just hope it's a decisive win for Kerry.
     
  3. Chaszmyr macrumors 601

    Chaszmyr

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    #3
    MadChemist, you're giving Florida to Bush, but still giving the election to Kerry? This is going to be interesting to see!
     
  4. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    Location:
    St. Louis, MO
    #4
    Well, hopefully Kerry can pick up enough EVs in other states that it doesn't matter what sort of mess takes place in Floriduh :)
     
  5. wordmunger macrumors 603

    wordmunger

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    Sep 3, 2003
    Location:
    North Carolina
    #5
    I'm not going to do every state (or add up my electoral count), but here's a good guess at some of the swing states:

    Bush:
    Florida
    Ohio

    Kerry:
    Pennsylvania
    Michigan
    Wisconsin
    Minnesota
    Iowa
    New Mexico
    Hawaii


    And my big upset:
    Kerry will also win North Carolina and Virginia!
     
  6. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

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    May 22, 2003
    Location:
    San Francisco
    #6
    Kerry will win 316-222 with all of the 2000 Gore states plus New Hampshire, Ohio, Florida, and Nevada. Kerry wins the popular vote 52%-47%.
     
  7. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    Reality
    #7
    That wouldn't be good. There's a large body of thought that Kerry must win at least one of those two states in order to win the election.
     
  8. MattG macrumors 68040

    MattG

    Joined:
    May 27, 2003
    Location:
    Fletcher, NC
    #8
    That's quite a predicition, but I hope you're right :)

    As a Floridian who has witnessed firsthand the sleazy measures the Republicans have taken to make sure Bush wins, I'm having trouble keeping positive about Kerry winning Florida. I can't help but think that Jeb and his goons will do something to rig it. I guess I can only hope that there's just an overwhelming amount of support from new voters, enough for Kerry to win by a landslide and not require a recount.

    I'm going to guess that Kerry will win Ohio and Pennsylvania, but not Florida.
     
  9. wordmunger macrumors 603

    wordmunger

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    Location:
    North Carolina
    #9
    Well, I found the PBS interactive map thingy and tried my strategy out, and it still has Kerry winning. Honestly, I don't think it'll be that close, but for fun in the prediction I thought I'd throw Bush a couple bones. The hanky-panky in both Florida and Ohio do make me think Bush could pull those states out, but I think there may be surprises in store for him in places like Nevada, Arizona, West Virginia, and Missouri, to name a few.
     
  10. Chaszmyr macrumors 601

    Chaszmyr

    Joined:
    Aug 9, 2002
    #10
    Interesting that most people now seem to have Kerry winning the electoral vote (sometimes by almost 100), considering Kerry hasn't really been ahead in the polls for the last couple of weeks. Either way, I voted for Kerry!
     
  11. SlowX macrumors member

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    May 16, 2001
    Location:
    Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN
    #11
    I think this is saying that the polls don't accurately reflect how people are actually voting.

    I mean, just a quick glance here reveals more Kerry than Bush fans... were any of US polled?
     
  12. wordmunger macrumors 603

    wordmunger

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    Sep 3, 2003
    Location:
    North Carolina
    #12
    Actually, I have been polled. And I voted for Kerry. It's a well known fact that Windows users are more conservative politically than Mac users. And fuggadabout those libertarian-wacko Linux users.
     
  13. SlowX macrumors member

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    May 16, 2001
    Location:
    Minneapolis-Saint Paul, MN
    #13
    And don't even get me started on those Atari users writing in "Nixon"!
    heh
     
  14. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    Location:
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    #14
    And the Amiga users searching their ballots for Chester Alan Arthur.
     
  15. wordmunger macrumors 603

    wordmunger

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    #15
    So the computing platform of choice for Nader is ... hmmmm... Maybe a solar-powered Psion?
     
  16. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #16
    I understand Radio Shack TRS-80 users are writing in Gerald Ford. :D
     
  17. IJ Reilly macrumors P6

    IJ Reilly

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    #17
    More like a manual Smith-Corona. (Nader doesn't even own a car.)
     
  18. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    Location:
    The Dallas 'burbs
    #18
    Kerry will take New Mexico or Arkansas. Bush will take Wisconsin or New Hampshire.

    Overall I am hoping for a Kerry win. Preferably something in the neighborhood of 299 to 239 so that it is at least decisive.

    My out there prediction:
    McCain wins.

    269/269 tie.

    Electors start strategizing since top 3 Electoral vote getters go to the house. Since House decides via states and Republcans have the majority all Democratic Electors go for a moderate Republican (McCain) to get Bush out. By abandoning Kerry completely they keep the Republicans from blocking McCain by pulling in a radical like Kucinich or Sharpton. McCain would stand a better chance in the House by pulling some Republican states and with the Democrats getting a majority of the states.
     
  19. Lyle macrumors 68000

    Lyle

    Joined:
    Jun 11, 2003
    Location:
    Madison, Alabama
    #19
    I have absolutely no idea how close the polls are to reality, but I don't think that an overwhelming support for Kerry in this particular forum is a reliable indicator of overwhelming support for Kerry throughout the nation (any more so than overwhelming support for Bush in the "Rich Old Racist Homophobes" Club would indicate nationwide support for the President).
     
  20. jadam macrumors 6502a

    jadam

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    Jan 23, 2002
    #20
    I think New Jersey, Ohio, Hawaii, and Pennslyvania will all go Bush.
     
  21. Don't panic macrumors 603

    Don't panic

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    having a drink at Milliways
    #21
    :confused: you lost me half way through.

    my prediction Kerry 269, Bush 222

    Florida and Ohio are too close and too caught up with lawsuites to be counted immediately.
    Eventually the courts assign both of them to GW against all evidence pointing to a clear kerry win.

    this brings the total to 269-269, to be decided by house.

    However, one of the great electors from florida (privvy to the scams that prevented a dem's win there) has a crisis of conscience and refuses to vote for GW, de facto assigning the white house to Kerry, 269-268.

    here's the breakout:
     

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  22. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

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    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #22
    Slate has the latest VNS numbers up, and it looks good for Kerry at this point.

    (Note: Numbers to be taken with a grain of salt please.)

    Florida
    Kerry 50
    Bush 49

    Ohio
    Kerry 50
    Bush 49

    Pennsylvania
    Kerry 54
    Bush 45

    Wisconsin
    Kerry 51
    Bush 46

    Michigan
    Kerry 51
    Bush 47

    Minnesota
    Kerry 58
    Bush 40

    Nevada
    Kerry 48
    Bush 50

    New Mexico
    Kerry 50
    Bush 48

    North Carolina
    Kerry 49
    Bush 51

    Colorado
    Kerry 46
    Bush 53
     
  23. jadam macrumors 6502a

    jadam

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    Jan 23, 2002
    #23

    too bad he needs 270 votes to win :eek:
     
  24. jefhatfield Retired

    jefhatfield

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2000
    #24
    that looks pretty accurate from what i have researched and seen on tv, but i think kerry will barely take iowa

    bush can take new jersey, some say, but i don't think so...if he does though, i will be shocked and blame bruce springsteen ;)
     
  25. jefhatfield Retired

    jefhatfield

    Joined:
    Jul 9, 2000
    #25
    virginia is always a possibility for the democrats...but north carolina? no way...that state goes to bush...unfortunately
     

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