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Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by IJ Reilly, Mar 17, 2006.
Just a few words to ponder, three years on.
You know, I read (somewhere) recently that Saddam purposefully bluffed with regards to Iraq having WMDs as leverage against Iran - in terms of regional strategy.
I also read that Hussein was more concerned in the lead-up to the war with internal stability concerns (eg: threat of a coup), than of the US forces. His concerns about sectarian violence and chaos resulting from the breakdown of order were astute and prescient.
Hussein seems, in retrospect, a somewhat moral man in that he knew his country, it's people and the Region and did what it took to hold it together. Although horribly vicious at times, I tend think that he knew that was what was necessary to maintain order and the status quo.
He just underestimated the ideological zeal of the Bush Administration. He played the hand he was dealt as best he could.
Lest people think I am being too soft on Mr Hussein, I would remind that the most pressing human right for many is not "freedom" but "security/personal safety". It is the US's inability to provide this basic right, that forments dislike of the US presence and support for the Insurrgency. Regular Iraqis are merely adhering to what looks like the strongest "tribe", because they have the best chance of security in that decision.
Hussein provided basic security, however imperfect, through order. In pursuit of that order, he bluffed himself into a position of strength and got called out by an overzealous America.
It is all kind of tragic. I do wonder how ignorant the US was of the real situation, or if it just posed (at the time) a low-risk point for ideological intervention.
20 million a day, 2400+ dead, many thousands limbless and Iraq is a bigger mess then when we went in. We were lied to many, many ,times. The agenda wasnt the agenda of the people. We have a 9 trillion dollar debt and growing. Best thing we can do is vote out all the incumbants, Everyone of them is tainted by special Interests. We also have to eliminate 100% the lobbiest who control govt with their election $$$.
Even today they are saying this swarm is the largest operation in Iraq, another Lie to spin this presidents sagging polls. They had plenty of operations that were much larger, no wonder they didnt want any reporters there.
2400? I think you forgot about the tens of thousands of Iraqi civilians that have died. It's a nation wide trauma for generations of people, so very often (conveniently?) unmentioned.
True , we really dont how many Iraqi's have died and everyone of them has family members. I know i would be very pissed if someone killed a family member. Then I would be labeled a ...Insurgent? or some other spin. The President was 100% wrong but stay the course stay the course, 400 billion dollars later. Unless this president is prepared to remove the Koran from that country he is wasting our time,our lives,our money.
Ah yes, but when the lies were about sex it was time to bring out the impeachment stick...
I posted an article about this a couple of years ago, I think it was. It could probably be located in the archives. Saddam was reportedly surprised to discover that the U.S. didn't know that he didn't have any WMD.
You think they didn't know? It was never about WMD's, they just hoped to find some.
I especially like the insane estimates by Rumsfeld and the others about the cost and difficulty of the war ahead. There are two possible interpretations:
These people have absolutely no understanding of the complexity of international affairs and military operations.
Or they just didn't care and were happy enough to lie to the American people about their intentions.
So why didn't Saddam let the weapons inspectors in?
Interesting. I'd like to see that blackfox.
Maybe because Iran would have been able to call his bluff then. And as bf said, he just underestimated Bush and co.'s zest for war. It's just insane when you think of where we are now with Iraq.
A better question is: Why did George Bush kick them out?
Saddam kicked out UNSCOM in October 1998 and didn't let inspectors return until November 2002, 5 weeks after congress had already authorized war and UN 1441 had been passed with its own "serious consequences" language. Why did he do this?
In Dec 2002, Iraq submitted a 14,000 page declaration stating that Iraq had no banned weapons. Yet within two months, UN inspectors had discovered empty chemical warheads and missiles that exceeded the range limitations (Al Samoud). Hans Blix reported to the UN that he was very critical of Iraq's cooperation. Why didn't Iraq disclose the banned weapons and cooperate more fully?
Did Saddam just not get the danger he was in? It seems to me like he could have easily prevented the gulf war with a little more cooperation up front.
the gulf war? in 1991?
Sigh... obviously I was referring to the second gulf war...
sorry, i'm not trying to be annoying. the term "gulf war" makes me think of desert storm. "iraq war" seems to be the popular moniker for the current action.
imo, saddam's actions w/ the inspectors had precious little to do with gw bush's desire for war. i don't think there's any action saddam could have taken, perhaps self-exile, that would have stopped bush's war.
I'll take the bait... we've been heading down an inevitable path towards the useless loss of American and Iraqi life ever since the 90s, when I was in high school, and this foolishness started. This should never have been allowed to get as far as a long-term military presence inside / over around Iraq. The elder Bush, of whom I am not a big fan, but whom I do not hate, did not do enough to stop this. Clinton did not act decisively to right this wrong. And now we've passed the fire extinguisher on to a pyromaniac.
What's interesting to me is that many of these same areas where wars have been fought in the last 2000 years are still being fought over today.
He was trying to bluff us, and Iran. He didn't think we'd invade so quickly, underestimating GW's resolve and America's zeal for revenge after 9/11. Even though there were plans for the Iraq war even before 9/11 apparently. When he realized we were serious, he got scared and began to want to cooperate. Seems pretty similar to what Iran is doing now. Not saying we could have fully trusted him, but we definitely did rush to war and planned things very poorly. Obvious at this point, but hindsight is 20/20, and even the most skeptical of us didn't realize it would get this bad.
There was a time when I chalked this up to incompetence, but it's obvious now that it's not that simple. At best they cherry picked the intel that supported what they had already planned to do, ignoring everything that didn't fit the agenda. At worst... well, I don't even want to think about that. The real reasons for this war could be even worse than most of us are thinking. Far worse. Hopefully it's just about oil, because the alternatives are terrifying.
Because we were using our inspectors to spy on his government.
As noted, the CIA was using UNSCOM to spy on Saddam's government. Also, allowing weapons inspectors in would have illuminated the deception he was trying to pull off in convincing his neighbors that he had WMDs and would use them if he had to.
Also, inspectors were let in before the war started, which was supposedly the whole point of the AUMF resolution in Congress. That resolution was supposed to be a tool to allow Bush to pressure Saddam into allowing weapons inspectors in -- yet Bush used it as a declaration of war, as well as the underpinning for his 'unitary executive' theory that allowed him to (among other things) data-mine vast quantities of American communications, and torture prisoners in violation of the Geneva Convention.
Here's that thread, from October 2004.
Well worth taking another look, if you're wondering why Saddam kept his cards so close to his vest.
Those were the days.
a phrase rife with meaning, on so many levels.
Shame I don't understand any of them.