The Polling Warehouse

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by numediaman, May 24, 2004.

  1. numediaman macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2004
    Location:
    Chicago (by way of SF)
    #1
    I thought it would be nice to have a place where all the latest polls could be posted.

    There are a number of web sites that have good polling data. One I came across was this one: http://www.pollingreport.com/

    There are others, of course. If you come across one, post it here.

    First poll: Bush job approval ratings. Here are some of the latest polls I found.

    CBS News
    Bush . . . Approve . . . Disapprove
    5/24 . . . . . 41 . . . . . 52
    5/10 . . . . . 44 . . . . . 49

    Washington Post / ABC
    Bush . . . Approve . . . Disapprove
    5/23 . . . . 47 . . . . . . . . 50
    4/18 . . . . 51 . . . . . . . . 47

    CNN / USA Today (Gallop)
    Bush . . . Approve . . . Disapprove
    5/21-23 . . . 47 . . . . . . 49
    5/7-9 . . . . 46 . . . . . . .51

    Newsweek
    Bush . . . Approve . . . Disapprove
    5/13-14 . . . . 42 . . . . . 52
    4/8-9 . . . . . . 49 . . . . .45

    Fox News
    Bush . . . Approve . . . Disapprove
    5/18-19 . . . . 48 . . . . . 43
    5/4-5 . . . . . 49 . . . . . . 43

    CNN / Time (Harris)
    Bush . . . Approve . . . Disapprove
    5/12-13 . . . . 46 . . . . . . 49
    4/8 . . . . . . 49 . . . . . . 47

    Zobgy International
    Bush . . . Approve . . . Disapprove
    5/10-13 . . 42 . . . . . . . 58
    4/8 . . . . . 47. . . . . . . . 52

    Pew Research Center for the People & the Press
    Bush . . . Approve . . . Disapprove
    5/3-9 . . . . . 44 . . . . . . 48
    4/21-25 . . . 48 . . . . . . 43

    All Polls . . Approve . . Disapprove
    . . . . . . . . .44.6 . . . . . .48.9​
     
  2. kuyu macrumors 6502a

    kuyu

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2003
    Location:
    Louisville
    #3
    numediaman, great idea for a thread. Interesting numbers. Weird how the conservative polls have bush ahead, and the liberal ones have him behind???

    Anyway, this election will definately prove to be one for the ages. i might not vote, just because I've come to the realization that presidents aren't that important to our lives as indivduals. Instead, I'm going to really focus on my local elections, which have a much more direct effect on my life. We have a bunch of nazi's running this town, and they've got to go.

    If Bush wins: I'll go to work, get paid, spend money, buy oil, sleep, hang out with friends and family.
    If Kerry wins: I'll go to work, get paid, spend money, buy oil, sleep, hang out with friends and family.
     
  3. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2003
    Location:
    PDX
    #4
    I would reconsider voting come November, as choice of President may very well affect you in a small amount of time in regards to taxes, employment, interpretation of law, civil-liberties, and the environment. Of course congressional make-up makes a difference also, but judges and head of departments are usually appointed by an administration.
    You are right to concentrate on local politics, though...my point is try to do both...
     
  4. numediaman thread starter macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2004
    Location:
    Chicago (by way of SF)
    #5
    Here is a more interesting poll. I found this in a stack of old newspapers. This one is from the July 9, 1973 edition of the Miami Herald.


    Asked of Congressmen on July 6, 1973:

    Do you believe that President Nixon knew in advance of the plans for the Watergate break-in?

    House Republicans
    Yes: 3.4%
    No: 94.9%

    House Democrats
    Yes: 48.2%
    No: 40%

    Senate Republicans
    Yes:4.8%
    No: 95.2%

    Senate Democrats
    Yes: 37.5%
    No: 50%


    Do you believe that President Nixon was personally involved in the Watergate coverup?

    House Republicans
    Yes: 17.2%
    No: 70.7%

    House Democrats
    Yes: 88.2%
    No: 9.1%

    Senate Republicans
    Yes: 9.5%
    No: 90.5%

    Senate Democrats
    Yes: 100%
    No: 0%

    Gotta give the Republicans create, they sure know how to circle the wagons.

    Edit: A story on the front page states: "A nationwide rollback in prices for gasoline and other petroleum products is being considered as part of the government's Phase 4 anti-inflation program, administration sources said Sunday. The rollback would mena a drop in the price of gasoline at service stations in many parts of the country."
     
  5. numediaman thread starter macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2004
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    Chicago (by way of SF)
    #6
    I loved those early polls that showed that so-and-so was leading nationally, even before a primary had been conducted. They are always, always bogus.

    For example: in January, The Field Poll ran a poll between Bush and prospective nominee John Kerry. The poll reported that prospective voters preferred Bush 48% to 39% (with 13% undecided). Right, like California was going to be in play.

    The Field Poll's newest results in California:

    May 2004
    Kerry 51%
    Bush 39%
    Nader 4%

    without Nadar
    Kerry 55%
    Bush 40%
     
  6. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

    Joined:
    Feb 18, 2003
    Location:
    PDX
    #7
    Well, although I think you are probably correct, I do think there is a better chance of California going republican than in recent memory...I guess we shall see...

    Also I wanted to post a nifty pie-chart poll, but can't figure out how to add attachments...a little help?
     
  7. numediaman thread starter macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2004
    Location:
    Chicago (by way of SF)
    #8
    Everyone knows the election is June 28th, right?

    Here is the latest polls from three different sources.

    Poll:

    Environics - May 25
    Liberal Party 38%
    Conservative Party 29%
    New Democratic Party 21%
    Bloc Québécois 11%

    Ipsos-Reid - May 21
    Liberal Party 35%
    Conservative Party 26%
    New Democratic Party 18%
    Bloc Québécois 12%
    Green Party 5%

    Compas - May 22
    Liberal Party 39%
    Conservative Party 31%
    New Democratic Party 17%
    Bloc Québécois 11%​

    Everyone keeps up with Canadian politics I hope. Now here's a quiz, who is Prime Minister? (Don't look it up, it's Paul Martin.)
     
  8. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

    Joined:
    May 22, 2003
    Location:
    San Francisco
    #9
    numedia,

    I thought Paul Martin's party was the Liberal Party, not the Liberty Party - did it change and no one told me?
     
  9. diamond geezer macrumors regular

    Joined:
    Jan 26, 2004
    #10
    Perhaps you should consider voting on how the President effects people other than yourself.

    Issues like foreign policy, education, environment etc.

    How long does it take to cast your vote? 1 hour?

    Consider the effect of your decision on the rest of the world
     
  10. numediaman thread starter macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2004
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    Chicago (by way of SF)
    #11
    It's a new political party -- guess they are doing pretty good!

    Yikes. That's why copy-paste is not always a good idea.

    Well, at least it was you, Sayhey. If Slyhunter was correcting my typos I might be tempted to shoot myself. (Of course, I don't own a gun, so that would be hard.)
     
  11. Neserk macrumors 6502a

    Neserk

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2004
    #12
    Another good reason not to own a gun :D
     
  12. Sayhey macrumors 68000

    Sayhey

    Joined:
    May 22, 2003
    Location:
    San Francisco
    #13
    Not a problem and stay away from those guns! Chicago needs as many San Franciscans as it can get. Thanks for the post - I'm just glad to know the NDP is doing so well.
     
  13. kuyu macrumors 6502a

    kuyu

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2003
    Location:
    Louisville
    #14
    Everyone that I know is better off financially than they've ever been. My parents are making more money than ever (one in manufacturing!!!), and all my friends are employeed and earning decent wages.

    Foreign policy doesn't really concern me. All my friends from other nations are very nice people, and we don't have a policy. Policies are for the politicians, not the citizens.
    Education: I'll be done with school in under two years, and the no child left behind seems to be BOTH their plans.
    Environment: Next year there will be at least two hybrid SUV's, one hybrid full size truck, and a litany of new hybrid cars. Private industry will step up to help the environment as consumers require it.

    So, I see your point, but I still might not vote for president. It's just one button on a machine, so if I push one, it'll probably say Bush (last time I pushed Gore). I'm not a huge 'neocon', but as a economics and finance major, I see the left playing on the publics ignorance (financially speaking) on a daily basis. IMHO, that's just bad politics.
     
  14. mactastic macrumors 68040

    mactastic

    Joined:
    Apr 24, 2003
    Location:
    Colly-fornia
    #15
    You've heard that the average gain from Bush's tax cuts is something like $1,100/per person right? And you don't find that to be playing on the public's ignorance (financially speaking)?
     
  15. numediaman thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    #16
    Poll: Bush lead over Kerry in Kentucky slips but still strong (Bush 52%, Kerry 40%)

    Associated Press

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. - Kentuckians' opinions of President Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq fell in a new poll, which also shows his lead over U.S. Sen. John Kerry in the presidential race, while narrowing, is still strong.

    The Bluegrass Poll, conducted by The Courier-Journal and published Saturday, recorded a significant decline in opinions about the president on matters involving Iraq.

    In February, Kentuckians endorsed Bush's handling of the situation in Iraq, with 58 percent approving and 40 percent disapproving. But the latest poll was a statistical dead heat, with 50 percent approving and 46 percent disapproving.

    The questions about Bush's performance surveyed 811 Kentucky adults and has a margin of error of plus or minus 3.4 percentage points.​

    I think Bush is safe in Kentucky. Kuyu, go ahead and vote for Bush. Just don't move to Ohio, OK?
     
  16. kuyu macrumors 6502a

    kuyu

    Joined:
    Sep 16, 2003
    Location:
    Louisville
    #17
    ??? I don't get your point. Do you mean that a tax cut is a ploy to convince the financially ignorant to vote for Bush? Or do you mean that giving $1,100 to average Joe is a bad thing?

    Clarification: conservatives gave us roth IRA's, which is arguably the best thing the government ever did for the common person. Also, those new HSA's that con's squeezed into the medicare/caid program are awesome. Plus, a G to all of us is great, it keeps that economy stirred. Each fully funded roth IRA costs the government a hair over a million in income tax dollars. More for us, less for them. After all, America is a people, not a government.

    The poor of this country don't know about this stuff (or at least don't use it). If they did, they'd cease to be poor and statistically speaking, would be far more likely to vote conservative. So, where's the incentive for liberal politicians to ever improve the financial standing of a major cornerstone of their constituency? There isn't one. Rich democrats are better off if the poor stay poor and they stay in power.

    Nume, Bush will definately take this state. He landslided it in 2000. Made my vote pointless. Where are you finding all these polls? Are they all on one sight? thx.
     
  17. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2002
    Location:
    toronto
    #18
    a bunch of working class guys are sitting in a bar. bill gates walks in. one guy throws up his hands and says, "yippeee!"

    he's asked, "what are you so excited about?" he replies, "the average net worth of everyone in this bar just went up by a billion dollars!"
     
  18. skunk macrumors G4

    skunk

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Republic of Ukistan
    #19
    Nice explanation! :D
     
  19. kuyu macrumors 6502a

    kuyu

    Joined:
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    Location:
    Louisville
    #20
    Great one. I agree that many rich individuals got tax breaks that are astronomical to people like me. However, I work 25 hours a week and go to school full time. After 7 years of this (roughly 50-60 hours a week and six figures of debt) I'll be in that earnings bracket. After all my sacrifice and hard work, I get to give ~45% of my income to Uncle Sam.

    Marginal Fed rate ~30%, state 6%, social security 6.2%, city 2.5%, medicare/caid 2%. Yippee, my actual worth got cut in half!!! So if I get a $1000/year raise, I'll get home with about $500. That's going to suck. :eek:
     
  20. zimv20 macrumors 601

    zimv20

    Joined:
    Jul 18, 2002
    Location:
    toronto
    #21
    are you applying the proper formula or are you looking at the highest bracket in which you land?
     
  21. jelloshotsrule macrumors G3

    jelloshotsrule

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    Location:
    serendipity
    #22
    tell that to the "citizens" of iraq.... or at least their families if they are now dead.


    education: it's one thing to both plan to have the no child left behind in place. it's entirely another to actually FUND it.... which bush hasn't done.

    why? iraq takeover is expensive.
     
  22. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

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    #23
    That's odd. I lost my manufacturing job last year and took a job earning a fraction of those wages for several months until I could find a job paying enough to live on.

    Most people I know are worse for the wear financially and I'm suffering a great deal under debt incurred while un- and under-employed

    I guess my sample size cancels out yours and we have to go to the cold, hard data, which means my story is more indicitive of The Big Picture than your happy one.
     
  23. pseudobrit macrumors 68040

    pseudobrit

    Joined:
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    #24
    Guess what? You're going to pay about 50% of your income in taxes no matter what.

    You think you're being punished for making more because your federal rates go up, but as your federal income taxes go up a percentage, your income goes up also, and therefore flat taxes, fees and regressive taxes (sales tax) go down as a percentage.

    For example, I paid over 60% tax on my disposable income when my gross income was less than $20,000 a few years back.
     
  24. numediaman thread starter macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
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    #25
    Two responses to Kuyu:

    I just googled to get the Kentucky poll. Other stuff sometimes comes from PollingReports, then I match it up with the polls that may be missing.

    Concerning the $1000 you received from the Federal government. The grand might be nice, but because of it you now owe $24,480.16. Yep, that's right.

    By throwing the budget into deficit, the Congress and the Bush administration gave every tax payer a huge new credit card bill. For news on the deficit, including everyone's share of it, go to U.S. National Debt Clock
     

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