Top 50 Posters Extrapolated into the Future

Discussion in 'Community' started by Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2003.

  1. Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #1
    Today is a holiday (a day off school and work for Independence Day in the U.S.), so I did a little number crunching just for fun. I extrapolated the MacRumors Top 50 Posters list to see how it might look in 6 months, a year, or at the end of time (the limit as time advances). I captured the list and put it in a spreadsheet. I used the post count for each of the top posters and assumed that each member will continue to post at the same rate that he/she has posted since joining.

    The results are of course estimates. The computation can't be entirely accurate for the following reasons:

    1. Members change their rate of posting. Those who post more frequently now than in the past will tend to show up too low in the list and those who post less frequently now than in the past will tend to show up too high in the list.

    2. Members who are not currently among the top posters may join the top posters despite being omitted from this exercise. To avoid missing the most likely new top-50 members, I started with the current top 75 as my raw data.

    3. New members join and current members disappear.

    4. Total accuracy would spoil the fun!

    Top 50 Posters as of today and estimated top 50 posters in 6 months, 12 months, and at the end of time

    Computed by Doctor Q on July 4, 2003

    Rank July 4, 2003.. Jan. 1, 2004.. July 4, 2004.. End of time
    ---- -------------- -------------- -------------- --------------
    1... Mr. Anderson.. Mr. Anderson.. Mr. Anderson.. Mr. Anderson
    2... eyelikeart.... eyelikeart.... jelloshotsrule MacBandit
    3... jelloshotsrule jelloshotsrule eyelikeart.... wdlove
    4... Rower_CPU..... Rower_CPU..... Rower_CPU..... Shadowfax
    5... jefhatfield... MacBandit..... MacBandit..... jelloshotsrule
    6... MacBandit..... vniow......... vniow......... vniow
    7... AlphaTech..... Shadowfax..... Shadowfax..... tazo
    8... vniow......... jefhatfield... wdlove........ scem0
    9... Backtothemac.. AlphaTech..... scem0......... übergeek
    10.. King Cobra.... scem0......... jefhatfield... Rower_CPU
    11.. Shadowfax..... wdlove........ AlphaTech..... eyelikeart
    12.. scem0......... Backtothemac.. King.Cobra.... King Cobra
    13.. krossfyter.... King Cobra.... Backtothemac.. MacFan25
    14.. Macrumors..... krossfyter.... krossfyter.... Backtothemac
    15.. arn........... Macrumors..... übergeek...... macfan
    16.. wdlove........ arn........... tazo.......... AlphaTech
    17.. MrMacman...... MrMacman...... Macrumors..... krossfyter
    18.. job........... job........... arn........... Dont Hurt Me
    19.. iJon.......... iJon.......... job........... edesignuk
    20.. edesignuk..... übergeek...... MrMacman...... job
    21.. Durandal7..... edesignuk..... edesignuk..... zimv20
    22.. teabgs........ teabgs........ iJon.......... iJon
    23.. mischief...... mischief...... teabgs........ pseudobrit
    24.. mac15......... mac15......... MacFan25...... teabgs
    25.. britboy....... Durandal7..... mac15......... lmalave
    26.. Beej.......... tazo.......... macfan........ jefhatfield
    27.. alex_ant...... britboy....... mischief...... Sun Baked
    28.. paulwhannel... zimv20........ zimv20........ bousozoku
    29.. mcrain........ Beej.......... Durandal7..... Kwyjibo
    30.. MacAztec...... alex_ant...... britboy....... mac15
    31.. zimv20........ paulwhannel... Dont Hurt Me.. yzedf
    32.. Sun Baked..... mcrain........ alex_ant...... MrMacman
    33.. übergeek...... MacFan25...... Beej.......... Macrumors
    34.. iGAV.......... Sun Baked..... Sun Baked..... medea
    35.. Hemingray..... pseudobrit.... pseudobrit.... arn
    36.. sparkleytone.. macfan........ paulwhannel... alex_ant
    37.. AmbitiousLemon bousozoku..... mcrain........ mcrain
    38.. pseudobrit.... iGAV.......... bousozoku..... paulwhannel
    39.. bousozoku..... MacAztec...... iGAV.......... Beej
    40.. Ensign Paris.. Hemingray..... lmalave....... iGAV
    41.. mymemory...... Dont Hurt Me.. Hemingray..... britboy
    42.. irmongoose.... sparkleytone.. MacAztec...... Doctor Q
    43.. Taft.......... AmbitiousLemon medea......... mischief
    44.. cb911......... lmalave....... sparkleytone.. springscansing
    45.. G4scott....... Ensign Paris.. AmbitiousLemon Hemingray
    46.. medea......... medea......... Ensign Paris.. Shrek
    47.. lmalave....... cb911......... Kwyjibo....... MacAztec
    48.. MacFan25...... Taft.......... yzedf......... AmbitiousLemon
    49.. Falleron...... Kwyjibo....... cb911......... Durandal7
    50.. macfan........ G4scott....... Doctor Q...... sparkleytone

    Observations:

    1. Mr. Anderson (nee Dukestreet) will apparently remain unchallenged.

    2. The most rapid ascent is tazo, estimated to jump to rank 26 in 6 months, rank 16 in a year, and level out at rank 7.

    3. The most rapid descents (though not very rapid) are MacAztec and Durandal7.

    4. The end-of-time rankings necessarily reflect post rates, not current post counts.

    5. If I don't soon get a life, I'm destined for the Top 50 Posters list next Independence Day.

    Disclaimer: Having a high post count or a high post rate doesn't mean that you are a better person or that your posts are of good quality. But post counts are a reflection of the time and attention members give to MacRumors, and they are interesting in that regard. Don't spam!
     
  2. robbieduncan Moderator emeritus

    robbieduncan

    Joined:
    Jul 24, 2002
    Location:
    London
    #2
    Good Work!

    But are these numbers based on total posts or posts/<time period>, say posts a month?
     
  3. Mr. Anderson Moderator emeritus

    Mr. Anderson

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2001
    Location:
    VA
    #3
    hahahaha! At least you mentioned you need to get a life.

    So what did you do to make this calculation?

    What about graphs? And what are the post numbers?

    Thanks for making me smile! Although I will say that things might change and I won't be unchallenged till the end of time....;)

    D
     
  4. Kwyjibo macrumors 68040

    Kwyjibo

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2002
    #4
    this is awesome, i can aspire to number 29 now ..
     
  5. MacFan25 macrumors 68000

    MacFan25

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2003
    Location:
    USA
    #5
    heh...that's pretty good. Did it take you long to make it?

    Next July 4th we will probably look back on this and laugh. ;) :D
     
  6. medea macrumors 68030

    medea

    Joined:
    Aug 4, 2002
    Location:
    Madison, Wi
    #6
    thanks that was pretty interesting to read, not sure why you took the time to do it but hey does it really matter?
    I'm some what surprised that I'm up there at 46 though, do I really post that much?
     
  7. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #7
    For each of the top 75 posters, I computed

    current post count + ( #posts/day * #days until target date)

    Then I sorted the results and captured the top 50.

    It took a couple of hours, partly because I was using AppleWorks (I should have used Excel) and because I forgot that MacRumors turns multiple spaces into single spaces when you post, even if you use a monospaced font. Hence the periods.

    I'll post the actual counts shortly, since they may be interesting too.
     
  8. Abstract macrumors Penryn

    Abstract

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2002
    Location:
    Location Location Location
    #8
    I didn't make the list?!?!?! Bu....but I've been spamming like crazy!!! :eek:

    Okay okay, so my post rate isn't very high, but I've been posting like crazy over the past 3 months (I've been a member for 6-7 months). I'll get my avatar soon enough. Don't you worry. I'll be at the top of that list in 2 years. Now if I could only figure out a way to get Mr. Anderson and the rest of the top 10 banned, or at least disappear for a while. ;)
     
  9. eyelikeart Moderator emeritus

    eyelikeart

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2001
    Location:
    Metairie, LA
    #9
    ha ha ha....this is damned funny! :D

    I'd be curious to see who all's here at the end of time. ;)
     
  10. shadowfax macrumors 603

    shadowfax

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2002
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    #10
    wow, that's pretty funny. if you really want to waste some time, you could incorporate the change in post rate over time into the equation. i know there are users whose average has decreased over time (like alphatech, he doesn't post anymore, so his posting average is slowly going towards 0 (at the end of time). might change your data at least a little (and take a hell of a lot more time off your hands ;))

    nice going, man :p
     
  11. bousozoku Moderator emeritus

    Joined:
    Jun 25, 2002
    Location:
    Gone but not forgotten.
    #11
    That's very interesting indeed. I didn't think that I would show up at all since I took time off and had slowed down before that.

    Well, it's nice that you have a hobby. ;) Well done.
     
  12. job macrumors 68040

    job

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2002
    Location:
    in transit
    #12
    i've often wondered if these forums are going to be around in 5, or even 10 years time.

    i guess next year we'll have to bring this thread back and see if doctor q's projections were accurate.

    oh yeah, 3000. ;)
     
  13. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #13
    I'll save the post counts. In 6 months, if I have nothing better to do, I can get the latest numbers and that'll give me a more current posting rate. Then the numbers for members like AlphaTech and cleo who have slowed down, or others who have sped up, will produce more accurate predictions.
     
  14. iJon macrumors 604

    iJon

    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2002
    #14
    thats pretty cool, dont know about me though. i joined about 2 years ago just to say something. but i really didnt start posting until a year ago. so i dont look at my post count very accurate because it keeps getting bigger each day because i know i post way more than 5 a day. i was always curous what my post count would be if posted as much then as i do now.

    iJon
     
  15. tazo macrumors 68040

    tazo

    Joined:
    Apr 6, 2003
    Location:
    Pacific Northwest, Seattle, WA actually
    #15
    Re: Top 50 Posters Extrapolated into the Future

    wow that is awesome dr. q. hehe. I will be number 7 in a year, I think right now I am no. 67, but overall i just try and contribute to the sitr :)


    [mod edit: dude...there's no reason to quote that entire post...

    it's so long...why would u want to make us scroll through it again to get to your post? ;)
     
  16. shadowfax macrumors 603

    shadowfax

    Joined:
    Sep 6, 2002
    Location:
    Houston, TX
    #16
    heh, you should convince arn to add a feature where you can check the post counts for groups of people at any given date in the past, with all their other stats as of that date. then you could waste more time now ;)
     
  17. Durandal7 macrumors 68040

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2001
  18. G4scott macrumors 68020

    G4scott

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2002
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    #18
    I didn't even know I was on the list... And if I don't keep up, I won't be on it very long...

    I wonder if this will encourage people to spam to try to get on top???

    At least we have good mods who try to keep the spamming down to a minimum...
     
  19. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #19
    Here are the projected counts for the current top 75 posters.

    I added the "million days from now" column for fun. My real "end of time" rankings were determined by the post rates since, as time goes to ininity, the current post count becomes insignificant and only the post rate matters (good news for ambitious new members).

    I hope you really do have 19,261,737 interesting things to say, Mr. Anderson!

    ...........................Posts as of
    Rank Member name....Rate...7/4/03..1/4/04..7/4/04..million days from now
    ---- -------------- ----- ------- ------- ------- ----------------------
    1... Mr. Anderson...19.25..11737...15279...18782...19,261,737
    2... eyelikeart......8.57...7818....9395...10955....8,577,818
    3... jelloshotsrule.12.79...6539....8892...11220...12,796,539
    4... Rower_CPU......10.08...6417....8272...10106...10,086,417
    5... jefhatfield.....4.97...5415....6329....7234....4,975,415
    6... MacBandit......14.18...4651....7260....9841...14,184,651
    7... AlphaTech.......7.19...4583....5906....7215....7,194,583
    8... vniow..........12.65...4429....6757....9059...12,654,429
    9... Backtothemac....7.60...4155....5553....6937....7,604,155
    10.. King Cobra......8.22...4012....5524....7021....8,224,012
    11.. Shadowfax......13.11...3931....6343....8729...13,113,931
    12.. scem0..........10.94...3849....5862....7853...10,943,849
    13.. krossfyter......6.91...3704....4975....6233....6,913,704
    14.. Macrumors.......4.49...3647....4473....5290....4,493,647
    15.. arn.............4.33...3528....4325....5113....4,333,528
    16.. wdlove.........13.31...3410....5859....8281...13,313,410
    17.. MrMacman........4.54...3311....4146....4973....4,543,311
    18.. job.............5.71...2995....4046....5085....5,712,995
    19.. iJon............5.53...2825....3843....4849....5,532,825
    20.. edesignuk.......5.86...2729....3807....4874....5,862,729
    21.. Durandal7.......3.17...2726....3309....3886....3,172,726
    22.. teabgs..........5.11...2715....3655....4585....5,112,715
    23.. mischief........3.82...2680....3383....4078....3,822,680
    24.. mac15...........4.55...2507....3344....4172....4,552,507
    25.. britboy.........3.91...2372....3091....3803....3,912,372
    26.. Beej............4.11...2238....2994....3742....4,112,238
    27.. alex_ant........4.29...2202....2991....3772....4,292,202
    28.. paulwhannel.....4.13...2136....2896....3648....4,132,136
    29.. mcrain..........4.15...2120....2884....3639....4,152,120
    30.. MacAztec........3.23...1982....2576....3164....3,231,982
    31.. zimv20..........5.65...1982....3022....4050....5,651,982
    32.. Sun Baked.......4.80...1969....2852....3726....4,801,969
    33.. übergeek.......10.10...1968....3826....5665...10,101,968
    34.. iGAV............3.97...1914....2644....3367....3,971,914
    35.. Hemingray.......3.53...1908....2558....3200....3,531,908
    36.. sparkleytone....3.10...1902....2472....3037....3,101,902
    37.. AmbitiousLemon..3.17...1843....2426....3003....3,171,843
    38.. pseudobrit......5.17...1784....2735....3676....5,171,784
    39.. bousozoku.......4.75...1774....2648....3512....4,751,774
    40.. Ensign Paris....2.92...1769....2306....2838....2,921,769
    41.. mymemory........1.99...1565....1931....2293....1,991,565
    42.. irmongoose......2.56...1480....1951....2417....2,561,480
    43.. Taft............2.84...1471....1994....2510....2,841,471
    44.. cb911...........3.07...1468....2033....2592....3,071,468
    45.. G4scott.........2.71...1466....1965....2458....2,711,466
    46.. medea...........4.39...1463....2271....3070....4,391,463
    47.. lmalave.........4.98...1420....2336....3243....4,981,420
    48.. MacFan25........7.88...1414....2864....4298....7,881,414
    49.. Falleron........2.33...1370....1799....2223....2,331,370
    50.. macfan..........7.46...1359....2732....4089....7,461,359
    51.. mc68k...........3.03...1345....1903....2454....3,031,345
    52.. Dont Hurt Me....6.74...1311....2551....3778....6,741,311
    53.. mnkeybsness.....1.71...1266....1581....1892....1,711,266
    54.. LethalWolfe.....2.31...1241....1666....2086....2,311,241
    55.. evildead........1.64...1222....1524....1822....1,641,222
    56.. Moxiemike.......2.21...1210....1617....2019....2,211,210
    57.. Shrek...........3.34...1153....1768....2375....3,341,153
    58.. 3rdpath.........2.11...1145....1533....1917....2,111,145
    59.. Macmaniac.......1.25...1133....1363....1590....1,251,133
    60.. Choppaface......2.14...1127....1521....1910....2,141,127
    61.. Doctor Q........3.90...1119....1837....2546....3,901,119
    62.. Kwyjibo.........4.63...1113....1965....2808....4,631,113
    63.. yzedf...........4.54...1109....1944....2771....4,541,109
    64.. SPG.............1.55...1098....1383....1665....1,551,098
    65.. madamimadam.....1.99...1087....1453....1815....1,991,087
    66.. ibookin'........2.95...1066....1609....2146....2,951,066
    67.. tazo...........11.98...1059....3263....5444...11,981,059
    68.. Nipsy...........1.91...1012....1363....1711....1,911,012
    69.. topicolo........2.50....985....1445....1900....2,500,985
    70.. GeeYouEye.......1.72....984....1300....1614....1,720,984
    71.. springscansing..3.70....977....1658....2331....3,700,977
    72.. peterjhill......2.23....971....1381....1787....2,230,971
    73.. mmmdreg.........2.18....969....1370....1767....2,180,969
    74.. drastik.........2.14....961....1355....1744....2,140,961
    75.. Royal Pineapple.2.35....944....1376....1804....2,350,944


    Notes:

    1. At the end of time, MrMacman and yzedf will be tied, because they had the same post rate at the moment I captured my data. The same is true for Durandal7 and AmbitiousLemon.

    2. Because of current post counts, MrMacman will be slightly ahead of yzedf and Durandal7 will be slightly ahead of AmbitiousLemon at any time before infinity, even a split second before the end of time. Such is the wonderful nature of mathematics.

    Edit: Fixed editing error: missing ü in übergeek!
     
  20. britboy macrumors 68030

    britboy

    Joined:
    Nov 4, 2001
    Location:
    Kent, UK
    #20
    That's.....worrying. Just out of interest Dr. Q: do you have a significant female in your life? If not, please try and find one. It seems to me that you have far too much free time on your hands ;) It put a smile on my face though, thanks.

    I'm surprised that I'd still be in the top 50. Since may last year i've not been posting anywhere near as often as i used to, so my average will no doubt continue to fall. I'd be interested to see what info you could extrapolate, if you do the same analysis 6 months from now. Please, make sure you do it.

    Did I mention that you need someone to take up your time? :)
     
  21. wdlove macrumors P6

    wdlove

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2002
    #21
    Thank you Doctor Q for an admirable job well done. I'm quite suprised by the results, never would have thought that my rank would be that high. It's a very intersting fact to know though!
     
  22. King Cobra macrumors 603

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2002
    #22
    But, wdlove, it's not a fact. Note Doctor Q's statement in the beginning of the thread:

    >The results are of course estimates. The computation can't be entirely accurate for the following reasons:

    >1. Members change their rate of posting. [etc.]

    >2. Members who are not currently among the top posters may join the top posters despite being omitted...[etc.]

    >3. New members join and current members disappear.

    >4. Total accuracy would spoil the fun!

    It's speculation.

    Well, at least I can estimate how much free time I'll have during my college years. :)
     
  23. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #23
    Thanks for your concern, folks, but don't worry too much about me needing to get a life. I like to tease myself about being a computer/math geek, but actually I have plenty of friends, relatives and interests. This top-50-posters experiment combined three of my interests: math, computers, and MacRumors, so it suited me just fine. But I also found time today for other activities:

    * I finished a book by Robert Cormier.

    * I listened to music. Mostly rock 'n roll, but also the Liberty Bell March by John Philip Sousa, best known as the Monty Python theme song.

    * I read user manuals to figure out how to use two new gadgets -- a new portable phone/answering machine and a new digital camera (Canon PowerShot A70) -- and took some practice shots.

    * I went to a Fourth of July block party, ate, visited, and played ping-pong and foosball for at least an hour.

    * I watched some fireworks and took long exposure night shots with the new camera. I got some great shots of kids making circles in the air with sparklers.

    * I changed a roll of toilet paper that was running out.

    Pretty good for one day, eh? When I have a day off, I like to make the most of it!
     
  24. janey macrumors 603

    janey

    Joined:
    Dec 20, 2002
    Location:
    sunny los angeles
    #24
    aw awesome!!! i might actually have a chance to be one of the top ten posters!!! :D
    anyway doctor q i'm dissappointed in you :(
    you forgot the "ü" in übergeek in your second list :)
     
  25. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #25
    I wonder how that happened!?!? I didn't type these lists in by hand. I exported, imported, FTPed to another machine where I have some handy filters I've written, and did global changes in a text editor. My sincerest apology.

    Here's the one I owe you:

    .....xx...xx.....
    .....xx...xx.....
    .................
    xxx...........xx.
    .xx...........xx.
    .xx...........xx.
    .xx...........xx.
    .xx...........xx.
    .xx...........xx.
    .xx...........xx.
    ..xxxx.....xxxxx.
    ......xxxxx...xxx
     

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