Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, January 2004

Discussion in 'Community' started by Doctor Q, Jan 4, 2004.

  1. Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #1
    I updated my computations from the Top 50 Posters Extrapolated into the Future thread from 6 months ago and here are the results.

    The legend of column headings follows the chart.

    As before, the results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.

    I've computed the numbers just for fun and to be a point of discussion. Members should not post just to achieve a high post count. Pointless posts are called spam and are against forum rules, which everyone should read and follow.

    I'll post some comments and statistics about the list once I type them up.

    Top 50 Posters as of today and estimated top 50 posters in 6 months and at the end of time

    Computed by Doctor Q on January 4, 2004

    .. .............. Cur.. Cur.. PR DLT | Projection.... Proj
    RK Current Top 50 Posts Rate. RK RNK | July 4, 2004.. Posts | End of Time
    -- -------------- ----- ----- -- --- | -------------- ----- | --------------
    .1 Mr. Anderson.. 14491 18.27 .1 ..0 | Mr. Anderson.. 17817 | Mr. Anderson
    .2 eyelikeart.... 10874 .9.92 .2 ..0 | eyelikeart.... 12680 | Powerbook G5
    .3 Rower_CPU..... 8,076 .9.85 .4 .+1 | Rower_CPU..... 9,868 | wdlove
    .4 Macrumors..... 7,590 .7.62 14 +10 | Macrumors..... 8,977 | MacBandit
    .5 jelloshotsrule 6,788 .9.77 .3 .-2 | jelloshotsrule 8,566 | shadowfax
    .6 jefhatfield... 6,242 .4.90 .5 .-1 | MacBandit..... 8,244 | eyelikeart
    .7 MacBandit..... 6,082 11.88 .6 .-1 | wdlove........ 7,981 | Rower_CPU
    .8 wdlove........ 5,646 12.83 16 .+8 | shadowfax..... 7,186 | jelloshotsrule
    .9 MrMacman...... 5,267 .5.77 17 .+8 | jefhatfield... 7,134 | scem0
    10 shadowfax..... 5,222 10.79 11 .+1 | MrMacman...... 6,317 | vniow
    11 arn........... 5,000 .5.01 15 .+4 | scem0......... 6,158 | Macrumors
    12 scem0......... 4,597 .8.58 12 ..0 | arn........... 5,911 | King Cobra
    13 AlphaTech..... 4,562 .5.56 .7 .-6 | Powerbook G5.. 5,845 | iJon
    14 vniow......... 4,336 .8.12 .8 .-6 | vniow......... 5,814 | MrMacman
    15 King Cobra.... 4,301 .6.40 10 .-5 | AlphaTech..... 5,573 | AlphaTech
    16 iJon.......... 4,201 .6.04 19 .+3 | King Cobra.... 5,466 | bousozoku
    17 Backtothemac.. 3,904 .5.34 .9 .-8 | iJon.......... 5,301 | edesignuk
    18 krossfyter.... 3,897 .5.41 13 .-5 | krossfyter.... 4,882 | krossfyter
    19 edesignuk..... 3,533 .5.44 20 .+1 | Backtothemac.. 4,876 | Backtothemac
    20 paulwhannel... 3,318 .4.74 28 .+8 | edesignuk..... 4,524 | Phil Of Mac
    21 job........... 3,221 .4.55 18 .-3 | paulwhannel... 4,181 | arn
    22 tazo.......... 3,202 .0.00 NW ... | bousozoku..... 4,066 | Doctor Q
    23 Durandal7..... 3,108 .2.98 21 .-2 | job........... 4,049 | jefhatfield
    24 bousozoku..... 3,065 .5.50 39 +15 | teabgs........ 3,760 | bennetsaysargh
    25 Powerbook G5.. 3,016 15.55 NW ... | Durandal7..... 3,650 | Kwyjibo
    26 teabgs........ 2,997 .4.19 22 .-4 | Sun Baked..... 3,649 | Dont Hurt Me
    27 mac15......... 2,848 .3.87 24 .-3 | mac15......... 3,553 | paulwhannel
    28 Sun Baked..... 2,793 .4.70 32 .+4 | iGAV.......... 3,427 | Sun Baked
    29 iGAV.......... 2,691 .4.05 34 .+5 | britboy....... 3,247 | mactastic
    30 mischief...... 2,649 .2.99 23 .-7 | Doctor Q...... 3,244 | job
    31 britboy....... 2,639 .3.34 25 .-6 | tazo.......... 3,202 | übergeek
    32 cb911......... 2,359 .3.56 44 +12 | mischief...... 3,194 | jxyama
    33 Doctor Q...... 2,340 .4.97 NW ... | cb911......... 3,008 | teabgs
    34 Beej.......... 2,223 .3.05 26 .-8 | Phil Of Mac... 2,934 | iGAV
    35 MacAztec...... 2,177 .2.73 30 .-5 | Kwyjibo....... 2,924 | MacFan25
    36 sparkleytone.. 2,109 .2.65 36 ..0 | Beej.......... 2,779 | mac15
    37 Kwyjibo....... 2,046 .4.83 NW ... | MacAztec...... 2,674 | patrick0brien
    38 Phil Of Mac... 2,005 .5.10 NW ... | Dont Hurt Me.. 2,661 | Nermal
    39 alex_ant...... 1,988 .2.85 27 -12 | sparkleytone.. 2,591 | cb911
    40 Hemingray..... 1,934 .2.67 35 .-5 | bennetsaysargh 2,559 | WinterMute
    41 AmbitiousLemon 1,869 .2.44 37 .-4 | übergeek...... 2,518 | medea
    42 mymemory...... 1,809 .1.87 41 .-1 | alex_ant...... 2,507 | Stelliform
    43 Dont Hurt Me.. 1,796 .4.75 NW ... | Hemingray..... 2,420 | britboy
    44 medea......... 1,766 .3.42 46 .+2 | medea......... 2,388 | Beej
    45 Ensign Paris.. 1,757 .2.22 40 .-5 | patrick0brien. 2,336 | mischief
    46 G4scott....... 1,753 .2.42 45 .-1 | AmbitiousLemon 2,313 | Durandal7
    47 mnkeybsness... 1,736 .1.88 NW ... | G4scott....... 2,194 | alex_ant
    48 irmongoose.... 1,716 .2.25 42 .-6 | Ensign Paris.. 2,162 | MacAztec
    49 Moxiemike..... 1,712 .2.34 NW ... | mymemory...... 2,149 | alset
    50 übergeek...... 1,701 .4.49 33 -17 | Nermal........ 2,147 | benixau


    Columns:
    1. RK = Rank (1 to 50).
    2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
    3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member since joining MacRumors.
    5. PR RK = Previous Rank, as of July 4, 2003 (six months ago), or NW for those who are new to the Top 50.
    6. DLT RNK = Delta Rank (# of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago)
    7. Projection July 4, 2004 = 6-month projected ranking based on current post rate.
    8. Proj Posts = 6-month projected # of posts based on current post rate.
    9. End of Time = projected ranking at the end of time, i.e., the ranking approached as time advances to infinity.
      [/list=1]
     
  2. thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #2
    General observations

    First, some statistics about the # of months that the current Top 50 members have been members:
    * average 23.2 months
    * standard deviation 6.7
    * minimum 6.4 (Powerbook G5)
    * maximum 41.8 (jefhatfield)
    MacRumors and arn re-registered in April 2001, otherwise they would be the oldest Top 50 members.

    All Top 50 members other than Powerbook G5 have been members more than a year.

    In September 2003, many members dropped to lower post counts because post counts were recomputed based on the policy that posts in the political forum are no longer counted. Wastelanded threads also do not count so post count can drop when a thread is moved to the Wasteland. See the Post count issues thread for a discussion about this. At that time, macfan lost the most posts of any Top 50 member.

    Seventeen Top 50 members from 6 months ago have current post counts that are actually lower than 6 months ago. Their drop in post count is shown in parentheses: macfan (1299), zimv20 (896), pseudobrit (887), mcrain (424), lmalave (338), übergeek (267), Backtothemac (251), alex_ant (214), Taft (151), vniow (93), springscansing (55), Shrek (33), mischief (31), AlphaTech (21), Beej (15), Ensign Paris (12), MacFan25 (2).

    Six months ago, shrek, who was banned from MacRumors in April 2003 after 1120 posts, was still in the Top 50. This time, tazo, who was banned in December 2003 with 3202 posts (although still a Demi-God!) is still in the Top 50 and is projected to be even 6 months from now.
     
  3. Moderator emeritus

    eyelikeart

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2001
    Location:
    Metairie, LA
    #3
    Wow, u are outdoing yourself again DrQ. Are u doing a case study on this website? If not, u have lots of material for anyone who would want to. ;)
     
  4. macrumors 68040

    Macmaniac

    #4
    Dang I did not make the top 50, oh well, I guess I just don't post fast enough. Why did Tazo get banned anyway?
    Doctor Q could you run a test to see who are the top 50 oldest active posters? I bet I would make that:)
     
  5. macrumors 68000

    latergator116

    Joined:
    Sep 30, 2003
    Location:
    Providence, RI
    #5
    Ah, well. Maybe ill make top 50 in a few years.:rolleyes:
     
  6. Wes
    macrumors 68020

    Wes

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2001
    Location:
    London
    #6
    I was wondering about tazo too.
     
  7. Moderator emeritus

    Mr. Anderson

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2001
    Location:
    VA
    #7
    So a little more analysis and you could write and submit a paper....;)

    You just need to make the pretty pictures now.

    I checked back to the previous thread and see I'm slowing down....which I predicted back then anyway. I imagine I'll continue to slow down even more.

    D
     
  8. Moderator emeritus

    Mr. Anderson

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2001
    Location:
    VA
    #8
    Because.

    Why does anyone get banned? Its always unfortunate when someone gets banned - we don't want to do it - but it boils down to the fact that everyone's different and sometimes handle situations in their own way. Sometimes its best to play by the rules. ;)

    D
     
  9. macrumors 68000

    Stelliform

    Joined:
    Oct 21, 2002
    #9
    Shucks, I am at 65 now, no list this year. :)

    Good work Dr. Q!
     
  10. macrumors 68040

    Kwyjibo

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2002
    #10
    sure tazo was fun to have around here , but he was always a little bit disgruntled and he didn't really adhere to social norms when debating issues
     
  11. thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #11
    Members get banned for violating the rules, usually for using personal insults after being warned. If you are curious, you can search for all posts by a particular banned member and look at their most recent posts to see what was going on when they were banned.
     
  12. macrumors 68030

    CmdrLaForge

    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2003
    Location:
    around the world
    #12
    Hi Mr. Anderson,

    btw - what business are you working in ? I want to have such a lot of free time for surfing as well !

    Have fun :)
     
  13. macrumors 68030

    teabgs

    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2002
    Location:
    behind you
    #13
    I was under the impression there was to be punch and pie....

    or at least a pretty graph? :p ;)

    Oh yeah...another post securing my position in the top 50. :p

    Seriously though, I find it interesting that I went down a few spots, yet I'm projected to be up again in 6 months. Because I think my rate has been constantly slowing down in the last 6 months...but I guess not as fast as others...

    Are you tracking people that are close to the top 50 as well, to see who may enter the top 50?

    I'd be interested in a study based on post rate as well... remember when jello and Dukestreet ;) were going about 200/day!? :eek: :eek:

    if that were to happen again even a new member would get up there pretty quickly....
     
  14. macrumors 68040

    Macmaniac

    #14
    Doctor Q are you a statistician? If your not I bet you would make a pretty good one, your results look so professional:)
     
  15. macrumors 68020

    G4scott

    Joined:
    Jan 9, 2002
    Location:
    Austin, TX
    #15
    Wow, I'm still in the top 50...

    I haven't been posting as much recently because of college among other things. Also, these forums have grown so much, it's almost overwhelming...
     
  16. thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #16
    Observations on the current Top 50

    There are 7 new Top 50 members: Powerbook G5, Doctor Q, Kwyjibo, Phil Of Mac, Dont Hurt Me, mnkeybsness, and Moxiemike.

    Biggest gain in rank within the Top 50: bousozoku (up 15 slots), followed by cb911 (up 12 slots).

    Biggest drop in rank within the Top 50: übergeek (down 17 slots), followed by alex_ant (down 12 slots). mcrain, with all those discounted posts, dropped 21 slots, off the Top 50. If you eliminate tazo from the list, mcrain would be 50th in the Top 50.

    Observations on the end-of-time rankings

    New Top 50 member Powerbook G5 powers his way into the #2 slot! Can he keep up the pace? Eleven other new Top 50 members: Phil Of Mac, bennetsaysargh, mactastic, jxyama, patrick0brien, Nermal, cb911, WinterMute, Stelliform, alset, and benixau.

    Phil Of Mac and bennetsaysargh made the Top 25! Members who were formerly in the Top 25 at the end of time but are now not in the Top 50: macfan, zimv20, pseudobrit, and lmalave.

    Biggest gain in rank: Macrumors (up 22 slots).

    Biggest drop in rank: übergeek and MacFan25 (each down 22 slots).
     
  17. macrumors 68040

    Macmaniac

    #17
    Wow if Powerbook G5 keeps it up he may challenge Mr. Anderson(Dukestreet)
    Although it may take a few years. Hmm maybe if Mr. Anderson senses a challange he may do 200 posts a day again;) That was a sight to behold.
     
  18. macrumors 68000

    MacFan25

    Joined:
    Jan 5, 2003
    Location:
    USA
    #18
    Heh...yeah I haven't been posting much lately - been busy with school and a part-time job. Maybe this semester I'll be able to get some more time in for Macrumors.

    As always, thank you Doctor Q for doing this. It's always interesting to see these stats.
     
  19. macrumors 68040

    Kwyjibo

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2002
    #19
    i'm surprised vniow doesn't have more of a drop, i don't see her post as much anymore
     
  20. thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #20
    I guess it's time to answer some questions!
    I guess you could call it a "case study". As you know (but others may not), my "source" material is simply the Top Posters list and member profiles for the newbies. Anyone can look at this information, and I have no inside information. I just gathered what's there.
    Your wish is my command. See my next post below.
    Submit it to whom? The Journal of MacRumors Prognostication?

    We talked about the graphing idea last time. What kind of graphs would make any sense? I can imagine producing a line graph showing the rate of posting over time for a given member. It would have two line segments based on the measured post rates at two points in time and their membership date. Or a pie chart showing how many Top 50 members joined in each quarter of each year. What else?
    I'm up for punch. What's your address and what time should we be there? Suggestions for graphs are welcome. You could even grab this data and do your own.

    Yes, I gathered the stats on the Top 75 last time and this time, so I'd have info on almost anybody in striking range of the Top 50.
    I took one statistics course once upon a time, and I've helped kids with statistics homework, but that's about it. My main qualification for this task is "geek who likes math and MacRumors".
     
  21. thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #21
    Here is a list of the members who were in the Top 75 six months ago and/or are in the Top 75 today, sorted by the date they became a member.

    Joindate Member Name
    -------- --------------
    07/09/00 jefhatfield
    01/02/01 eyelikeart
    01/06/01 Macmaniac
    02/24/01 Durandal7
    03/26/01 applemacdude
    04/09/01 arn
    04/12/01 Macrumors
    05/09/01 mymemory
    06/18/01 evildead
    06/22/01 Wes
    06/25/01 mnkeybsness
    07/04/01 MrMacman
    07/24/01 SPG
    08/01/01 mischief
    10/04/01 AlphaTech
    10/05/01 Rower_CPU
    10/28/01 MacAztec
    10/28/01 sparkleytone
    11/01/01 Mr. Anderson
    11/04/01 britboy
    11/04/01 Ensign Paris
    11/22/01 Falleron
    11/28/01 AmbitiousLemon
    12/03/01 irmongoose
    12/09/01 GeeYouEye
    12/29/01 mac15
    01/01/02 Moxiemike
    01/02/02 Backtothemac
    01/03/02 madamimadam
    01/05/02 Beej
    01/07/02 3rdpath
    01/09/02 Hemingray
    01/09/02 G4scott
    01/11/02 LethalWolfe
    01/13/02 krossfyter
    01/18/02 teabgs
    01/19/02 Nipsy
    01/22/02 Choppaface
    01/25/02 job
    01/31/02 Taft
    02/02/02 paulwhannel
    02/05/02 alex_ant
    02/07/02 jelloshotsrule
    02/07/02 iJon
    02/08/02 mcrain
    03/02/02 King Cobra
    03/09/02 iGAV
    03/12/02 cb911
    03/25/02 edesignuk
    04/10/02 drastik
    04/14/02 mmmdreg
    04/16/02 mc68k
    04/25/02 peterjhill
    05/19/02 Sun Baked
    05/28/02 Royal Pineapple
    06/04/02 topicolo
    06/25/02 bousozoku
    07/07/02 zimv20
    07/07/02 ibookin'
    07/16/02 scem0
    07/18/02 vniow
    07/23/02 pseudobrit
    07/23/02 Shrek
    08/04/02 medea
    08/09/02 MacBandit
    09/06/02 shadowfax
    09/08/02 MacsRgr8
    09/19/02 Doctor Q
    09/22/02 Freg3000
    10/09/02 benixau
    10/13/02 springscansing
    10/20/02 wdlove
    10/21/02 Stelliform
    10/24/02 patrick0brien
    11/01/02 yzedf
    11/05/02 Kwyjibo
    11/08/02 lmalave
    11/09/02 alset
    12/06/02 Phil Of Mac
    12/07/02 Nermal
    12/20/02 übergeek
    12/21/02 Dont Hurt Me
    01/02/03 macfan
    01/05/03 MacFan25
    01/19/03 WinterMute
    01/20/03 bennetsaysargh
    04/03/03 jxyama
    04/06/03 tazo
    04/24/03 mactastic
    06/23/03 Powerbook G5


    Dates are in the American mm/dd/yy format, even through Europeans and others who use the dd/mm/yy format know that their format is more sensible!
     
  22. macrumors 68040

    applemacdude

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2001
    Location:
    Over The Rainbow
    #22
    Im the 5th oldest that is in the top 75. YAYYYY:)
     
  23. Moderator emeritus

    Rower_CPU

    Joined:
    Oct 5, 2001
    Location:
    San Diego, CA
    #23
    Excellent work, as always, Doctor Q.

    Here's my gratuitous request:
    How accurately was your previous prediction? What were the big surprises in ranking?

    You covered the post loss angle, but not any actual post rate fluctuations. Inquiring lemurs want to know...
     
  24. Wes
    macrumors 68020

    Wes

    Joined:
    Jun 22, 2001
    Location:
    London
    #24
    10th, I'm happy with that.
     
  25. macrumors 68040

    Kwyjibo

    Joined:
    Nov 5, 2002
    #25
    I'm a lot higher than the previous estimates

    on the original Dr. Q estimated me to be at number 49 on Jan 01, 2004 and i'm currently number 37 but my end of time ranking only went from 29 to 24
     

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