Top 50 Posters Extrapolated, July 2004

Discussion in 'Community' started by Doctor Q, Jul 4, 2004.

  1. Doctor Q Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #1
    I am once again posting charts of the MacRumors Top 50 posters. The previous Top 50 Posters Extrapolated threads were July 4, 2003 and January 4, 2004.

    The legend of column headings follows the chart.

    The results are only estimates because members change their rate of posting, current members will join the list or drop out, and new members will appear.

    I've computed the numbers just for fun and to be a point of discussion. Members should not post just to achieve a high post count. Pointless posts (spam) are against forum rules, which everyone should read and follow.

    Top 50 Posters as of today and estimated top 50 posters in 6 months and at the end of time

    Computed by Doctor Q on July 4, 2005

    .. .............. Cur.. Cur.. PR DLT | Projection.... Proj
    RK Current Top 50 Posts Rate. RK RNK | January 4,2005 Posts | End of Time
    -- -------------- ----- ----- -- --- | -------------- ----- | --------------
    .1 Mr. Anderson.. 16765 12.49 .1 ..0 | Mr. Anderson.. 19076 | wdlove
    .2 eyelikeart.... 12104 .6.76 .2 ..0 | eyelikeart.... 13354 | Mr. Anderson
    .3 Rower_CPU..... 9,694 .8.89 .3 ..0 | wdlove........ 11994 | Doctor Q
    .4 wdlove........ 8,794 17.30 .8 .+4 | Rower_CPU..... 11339 | bousozoku
    .5 Macrumors..... 7,593 .0.02 .4 .-1 | MrMacman...... 8,181 | Rower_CPU
    .6 MacBandit..... 7,048 .5.31 .7 .+1 | MacBandit..... 8,030 | jxyama
    .7 jelloshotsrule 7,025 .1.30 .5 .-2 | Macrumors..... 7,596 | edesignuk
    .8 jefhatfield... 6,795 .3.04 .6 .-2 | jefhatfield... 7,357 | MrMacman
    .9 MrMacman...... 6,712 .7.94 .9 ..0 | jelloshotsrule 7,266 | Nermal
    10 arn........... 5,398 .2.19 11 .+1 | bousozoku..... 6,537 | eyelikeart
    11 shadowfax..... 5,373 .0.83 10 .-1 | edesignuk..... 6,525 | Counterfit
    12 King Cobra.... 5,038 .4.05 15 .+3 | Doctor Q...... 5,812 | Sun Baked
    13 edesignuk..... 5,017 .8.15 19 .+6 | arn........... 5,803 | virividox
    14 scem0......... 4,993 .2.18 12 .-2 | King Cobra.... 5,787 | iGAV
    15 iJon.......... 4,844 .3.53 16 .+1 | shadowfax..... 5,526 | aswitcher
    16 bousozoku..... 4,787 .9.46 24 .+8 | iJon.......... 5,498 | Dont Hurt Me
    17 vniow......... 4,612 .1.52 14 .-3 | scem0......... 5,396 | MacBandit
    18 AlphaTech..... 4,562 .0.00 13 .-5 | Sun Baked..... 5,106 | revenuee
    19 paulwhannel... 4,193 .4.81 20 .+1 | paulwhannel... 5,082 | paulwhannel
    20 Doctor Q...... 4,062 .9.46 33 +13 | vniow......... 4,893 | Powerbook G5
    21 krossfyter.... 4,051 .0.85 18 .-3 | iGAV.......... 4,867 | Horrortaxi
    22 Backtothemac.. 4,043 .0.76 17 .-5 | Powerbook G5.. 4,764 | King Cobra
    23 Sun Baked..... 3,940 .6.30 28 .+5 | AlphaTech..... 4,562 | SiliconAddict
    24 Powerbook G5.. 3,883 .4.76 25 .+1 | jxyama........ 4,247 | übergeek
    25 iGAV.......... 3,770 .5.93 29 .+4 | krossfyter.... 4,208 | mactastic
    26 job........... 3,366 .0.80 21 .-5 | Backtothemac.. 4,184 | ~Shard~
    27 teabgs.........3,267 .1.48 26 .-1 | Nermal........ 4,055 | iJon
    28 Durandal7......3,145 .0.20 23 .-5 | Dont Hurt Me.. 3,778 | MacBytes
    29 mac15..........3,017 .0.93 27 .-2 | teabgs........ 3,541 | applemacdude
    30 cb911..........2,871 .2.81 32 .+2 | job........... 3,513 | QCassidy352
    31 Dont Hurt Me...2,779 .5.40 43 +12 | Counterfit.... 3,398 | jefhatfield
    32 Nermal.........2,750 .7.05 57 +25 | cb911......... 3,391 | themadchemist
    33 britboy........2,704 .0.36 31 .-2 | mac15......... 3,189 | wrldwzrd89
    34 jxyama.........2,696 .8.38 71 +37 | Durandal7..... 3,183 | Macmaniac
    35 mischief.......2,695 .0.25 30 .-5 | virividox..... 3,133 | cb911
    36 Kwyjibo........2,507 .2.53 37 .+1 | übergeek...... 3,113 | bennetsaysargh
    37 übergeek.......2,401 .3.85 50 +13 | Kwyjibo....... 2,976 | Kwyjibo
    38 MacAztec.......2,385 .1.14 35 .-3 | britboy....... 2,770 | Mudbug
    39 Beej.......... 2,226 .0.02 34 .-5 | mischief...... 2,742 | Abstract
    40 bennetsaysargh 2,172 .2.70 52 +12 | bennetsaysargh 2,672 | Flowbee
    41 sparkleytone...2,160 .0.28 36 .-5 | aswitcher..... 2,611 | MacsRgr8
    42 Counterfit.....2,148 .6.75 .. ... | MacAztec...... 2,596 | LethalWolfe
    43 Hemingray......2,137 .1.12 40 .-3 | applemacdude.. 2,535 | arn
    44 alex_ant.......2,047 .0.32 39 .-5 | Macmaniac..... 2,524 | scem0
    45 mnkeybsness....2,027 .1.60 47 .+2 | mactastic..... 2,502 | howard
    46 G4scott........1,987 .1.29 46 .+0 | revenuee...... 2,403 | stoid
    47 virividox......1,983 .6.22 .. ... | LethalWolfe... 2,377 | Awimoway
    48 mymemory.......1,980 .0.94 42 .-6 | Hemingray..... 2,343 | cubist
    49 Macmaniac......1,976 .2.96 59 +10 | mnkeybsness... 2,323 | Snowy_River
    50 applemacdude...1,966 .3.08 61 +11 | Mudbug........ 2,315 | idkew


    Columns:
    1. RK = Rank (1 to 50).
    2. Current Top 50 = members with the 50 currently highest post counts.
    3. Cur Posts = # of posts by that member.
    4. Cur Rate = average # posts per day by that member over the last 6 months, or for the length of their membership, whichever is smaller.
    5. PR RK = Previous Rank, as of January 4, 2004 (six months ago); blank for those who are new to the Top 50.
    6. DLT RNK = Delta Rank (# of slots +higher or -lower in rank since 6 months ago).
    7. Projection January 4, 2005 = 6-month projected ranking based on displayed post rate.
    8. Proj Posts = 6-month projected # of posts based on current post rate.
    9. End of Time = projected ranking at the end of time, i.e., the ranking approached as time advances to infinity.
     
  2. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #2
    Observations

    --- General Observations ---

    Rather than use post rates averaged over each member's entire membership, I used post rates averaged over the last 6 months. This assumes that members will continue to post at current rates, which of course isn't always the case, but it may be more accurate than preditions based on long-term rates, since some members were registered but inactive and only began to post more recently. I think the method I used will improve accuracy for the extrapolations 6 months into the future, but probably wasn't a fair way to predict the "End of Time" rankings.

    Statistics about the length of membership of the current Top 50: [with numbers from 6 months ago in square brackets]: average 28.3 months [23.2], standard deviation 8.3 [6.7], minimum 10.5 (Counterfit) [6.4], maximum 47.8 (jefhatfield) [41.8]. MacRumors and arn re-registered in April 2001, otherwise they would be oldest Top 50 members.

    There are two Top 50 members who have been members less than a year: Counterfit, and virividox, both members 10.5 months. In fact, Counterfit registered the day after virividox!

    I chose to exclude banned members from the Top 50 list. If I had not, tazo would have been 28th (just before Durandal7) and Phil of Mac would have been 45th (just before alex_ant).

    --- Current Top 50 ---

    There are 7 new Top 50 members: virividox, Counterfit, bennetsaysargh, Nermal, Macmaniac, applemacdude, and jxyama.

    Five members are off the Top 50: AmbitiousLemon, medea, Ensign Paris, irmongoose, and Moxiemike.

    Biggest gain in rank within the Top 50: jxyama (up 37 slots), followed by Nermal (up 25 slots). übergeek and Doctor Q were each up 13 slots.

    Drops were milder. Biggest drop in rank within the Top 50: mymemory (down 6 slots), with 8 other members down 5 slots each: alex_ant, sparkleytone, Beej, mischief, Durandal7, job, Backtothemac, and AlphaTech.

    macfan, who was 50th on the Top 50 list a year ago, no longer posts and as a result has dropped by 1,711 slots since a year ago!

    --- End of time rankings ---

    These end of time rankings are based on the current post rate, and after seeing the results I'm not sure that is a fair predictor. The biggest shock is seeing that Mr. Anderson is out of the top spot.

    Other surprises in the Top 10 "End of Time" members from 6 months ago: Doctor Q has moved way up (my post rate increased as a result of being given Moderator duties). shadowfax and jelloshotsrule and vniow are no longer in the Top 50.

    Perhaps End of Time rankings should be based on total length of membership, since it is by nature a long-term statistic.

    I await your comments and ideas. In the meantime, I'm off to a Fourth of July party!
     
  3. wdlove macrumors P6

    wdlove

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2002
    #3
    Thank you for your very diligent job Doctor Q. Your timing is very appropriate. I was just thinking about this yesterday and was going to send you a request for an update today. You are very prompt indeed.

    I'm very surprised also that Mr. Anderson and eyelikeart would fall out of their top spots.

    I hope that you will have a great 4th of July celebration. You certainly deserve it with all your good work.
     
  4. Mr. Anderson Moderator emeritus

    Mr. Anderson

    Joined:
    Nov 1, 2001
    Location:
    VA
    #4
    I think its called getting a life :D

    D
     
  5. King Cobra macrumors 603

    Joined:
    Mar 2, 2002
    #5
    I have two comments. First, I've been trying to figure out whether or not Doctor Q. was going to do that extrapolation thing anymore since he's a mod and has to "assume" more formal duties. Second, I've also been thinking that if Doctor Q. did another one of them that I should keep the first derivative of my recent posts well up - also, I got greedy as I approached 5K - so that as opposed to the 5,9xx mark Doctor Q. calculated from last time, it would be much higher. But it's actually lower... 5,7xx. Bah, well, I do have most of the summer to change that.
     
  6. Neserk macrumors 6502a

    Neserk

    Joined:
    Jan 1, 2004
  7. job macrumors 68040

    job

    Joined:
    Jan 25, 2002
    Location:
    in transit
    #7
    I think this bi-annual recap of members and their posts is extremely helpful in figuring out who has stopped posting.

    For example, 6 months ago I would have never figured vniow and shadowfax to drop out of the end of time count.
     
  8. applemacdude macrumors 68040

    applemacdude

    Joined:
    Mar 26, 2001
    Location:
    Over The Rainbow
    #8
    haha finally all my spamming got me into slot # 50 up 11 slots....lol
     
  9. Nermal Moderator

    Nermal

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Dec 7, 2002
    Location:
    New Zealand
    #9
    Last time around I was predicted to end up at #50. Where did I end up? #32 :D
     
  10. stoid macrumors 601

    stoid

    Joined:
    Feb 17, 2002
    Location:
    So long, and thanks for all the fish!
    #10
    Yay! by the end of time, I'll finally get into the top 50!
     
  11. Counterfit macrumors G3

    Counterfit

    Joined:
    Aug 20, 2003
    Location:
    sitting on your shoulder
    #11
    woo, #42, to #31, then #11 when All Hell Breaks Loose :D


    Are you implying something? ;)
     
  12. irmongoose macrumors 68030

    irmongoose

    Joined:
    Dec 3, 2001
    Location:
    Sometimes Tokyo, sometimes California
    #12
    And off I go from the Top 50. Oh well, I've got 2 months to recover my post... :p



    irmongoose
     
  13. Awimoway macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2002
    Location:
    at the edge
    #13
    Am surprised to discover that I made one of the lists -- near the bottom of the end of time list.

    However, I don't think I'll stay on that list for long. My recent 10 months of unemployment played a big role in getting my post rate up. Now it's in decline and will likely stay that way. Alas.
     
  14. Awimoway macrumors 65816

    Joined:
    Sep 13, 2002
    Location:
    at the edge
    #14
    Perhaps because it doesn't count political forum posts?
     
  15. WinterMute Moderator emeritus

    WinterMute

    Joined:
    Jan 19, 2003
    Location:
    London, England
    #15
    Damn, fell off the End of time list, that's called having a life I suppose, although with the summer coming up I should be around a little more, I only posted a few times in the last few weeks cos of the Degree Show and end of year degree classification duties.

    Back to being a lazy academic again... :D
     
  16. pivo6 macrumors 68000

    pivo6

    Joined:
    Dec 2, 2002
    Location:
    Minnesota
    #16
    One of the reason for the big drop by Macfan was posts in the political forum no longer counted. That and he/she stopped posting.

    I'll never come anywhere near this list. Oh well.
     
  17. virividox macrumors 601

    virividox

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2003
    Location:
    Manila - Nottingham - Philadelphia - Santa Barbar
    #17
    oh wow i didnt even notice i was posting that much; i guess this is what happens when you have too much time on your hands and are in love with your computer ;)
     
  18. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #18
    I recomputed the End of Time predictions based on overall posting rates, from date of registration through the present.

    Top 50 Posters at the end of time based on overall post rates

    .. .............. LongT ........ Mem. Cur
    RK End of Time... Rate. JoinDate Mon. RK
    -- -------------- ----- -------- ---- ---
    .1 Mr. Anderson.. 17.19 11/01/01 32.0 2
    .2 wdlove........ 14.14 10/20/02 20.4 1
    .3 Powerbook G5.. 10.33 06/23/03 12.4 20
    .4 MacBandit..... 10.16 08/09/02 22.8 17
    .5 Rower_CPU..... .9.67 10/05/01 32.9 5
    .6 eyelikeart.... .9.47 01/02/01 42.0 10
    .7 shadowfax..... .8.07 09/06/02 21.9
    .8 jelloshotsrule .8.01 02/07/02 28.8
    .9 scem0......... .6.95 07/16/02 23.6 44
    10 Counterfit.... .6.75 08/20/03 10.4 11
    11 bousozoku..... .6.48 06/25/02 24.3 4
    12 Macrumors..... .6.45 04/12/01 38.7
    13 vniow......... .6.44 07/18/02 23.5
    14 Doctor Q...... .6.22 09/19/02 21.5 3
    15 virividox..... .6.22 08/19/03 10.5 13
    16 MrMacman...... .6.13 07/04/01 36.0 8
    17 edesignuk..... .6.04 03/25/02 27.3 7
    18 jxyama........ .5.90 04/03/03 15.0 6
    19 King Cobra.... .5.90 03/02/02 28.1 22
    20 aswitcher..... .5.75 010/8/03 08.8 15
    21 iJon.......... .5.52 02/07/02 28.8 27
    22 Sun Baked..... .5.08 05/19/02 25.5 12
    23 revenuee...... .5.02 09/13/03 09.7 18
    24 Dont Hurt Me.. .4.96 12/21/02 18.4 16
    25 Nermal........ .4.79 12/07/02 18.9 9
    26 paulwhannel... .4.75 02/02/02 29.0 19
    27 jefhatfield... .4.67 07/09/00 47.8 31
    28 arn........... .4.57 04/09/01 38.8 43
    29 AlphaTech..... .4.55 10/04/01 33.0
    30 krossfyter.... .4.49 01/13/02 29.6
    31 iGAV.......... .4.45 03/09/02 27.8 14
    32 Backtothemac.. .4.43 01/02/02 30.0
    33 übergeek..... .4.28 12/20/02 18.4 24
    34 mactastic..... .4.22 04/24/03 14.3 25
    35 Horrortaxi.... .4.14 07/06/03 11.9 21
    36 Kwyjibo....... .4.14 11/05/02 19.9 37
    37 bennetsaysargh .4.10 01/20/03 17.4 36
    38 SiliconAddict. .3.86 06/19/03 12.5 23
    39 job........... .3.78 01/25/02 29.2
    40 teabgs........ .3.64 01/18/02 29.5
    41 ~Shard~....... .3.56 06/04/03 13.0 26
    42 cb911......... .3.40 03/12/02 27.7 35
    43 MacBytes...... .3.29 07/05/03 12.0 28
    44 mac15......... .3.29 12/29/01 30.1
    45 QCassidy352... .3.07 03/20/03 15.5 30
    46 themadchemist. .3.03 01/31/03 17.1 32
    47 wrldwzrd89.... .3.03 06/06/03 12.9 33
    48 patrick0brien. .2.93 10/24/02 20.3
    49 MacFan25...... .2.92 01/05/03 17.9
    50 WinterMute.... .2.88 01/19/03 17.4


    Columns:
    1. RK = Rank (1 to 50).
    2. End of Time = projected ranking at the end of time, i.e., the ranking approached as time advances to infinity.
    3. LongT Rate = long-term average # posts per day for the length of membership.
    4. JoinDate = date of MacRumors registration (in the dopey non-sortable U.S. format).
    5. Mem Mon = membership months.
    6. Cur RK = End of Time rank from my earlier post (post #2 above), based on the current (recent) post rate instead of the long-term post rate.

    --- Observations ---

    These rankings look better to me, but that's probably because I've been watching the ranks change gradually over a year. As I mentioned in post #2, using long-term post rates skews the results one way, while using recent post rates skews them the other way. The truth is probaby in the middle, and it would be most reasonsable to treat the pair of estimates as a range, e.g., Powerbook G5 is predicted to be in the End of Time range of 3rd to 20th.

    That leads me to assume that consistency correlates to accuracy.

    Some members stay practically the same in the pair of rankings: Mr. Anderson, wdlove, Rower_CPU, Counterfit, Kwyjibo, bennetsaysargh, and WinterMute. Almost as consistent: virividox and King Cobra, followed by eyelikeart and jefhatfield. These members have had consistent post rates, so predictions are likely to be more accurate.

    Others jump quite a bit, due to highly changed post rates. The extremes are shadowfax and jelloshotsrule, followed by Backtothemac, vniow, and krossfyter. My conclusion is that we can't make good predictions for these members this way, i.e., using these mathematical models. Of course, we could just ask them about their lives and probably get a better prediction!

    Members in the Top 50 End of Time based on long-term posting rates but not based on current posting rates: shadowfax, jelloshotsrule, Macrumors, vniow, AlphaTech, krossfyter, Backtothemac, job, teabgs, mac15, patrick0brien, MacFan25, and WinterMute. These are the members who have slowed down.

    Members in the Top 50 End of Time based on current posting rates but not based on long-term posting rates: Mudbug, Abstract, MacsRgr8, Flowbee, LethalWolfe, howard, stoid, Awimoway, cubist, Snowy_River, idkew, applemacdude, and Macmaniac. These are the members who have sped up.

    By the way, I miss the teasing I traditionally get for doing this silly analysis instead of going to a movie or whatever normal people do with their time. :(
     
  19. MrMacMan macrumors 604

    MrMacMan

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2001
    Location:
    1 Block away from NYC.
    #19
    Thank you very much Doctor Q.

    I like very much that I will be increasing in posting rank for january even though I was kicked off my computer and have posted less them 100 posts in the last 3 months... :eek:


    I also like the First End of Time ranking since I am *alot* higher on that one... :confused: :confused:


    In anyrate thank you for your contribution and really wonderful achievement.
     
  20. yamabushi macrumors 65816

    yamabushi

    Joined:
    Oct 6, 2003
    #20
    Thanks Doctor Q. If you can find the time in the future I would like to see the list grow to include perhaps the top 100. If the MR total active membership grows significantly a larger list would help to keep the proportion of top posters listed to total active users somewhere close to where it is now.
     
  21. Doctor Q thread starter Administrator

    Doctor Q

    Staff Member

    Joined:
    Sep 19, 2002
    Location:
    Los Angeles
    #21
    You can click here to view the Top 100 posters at any given time.

    I realized a year ago that I could identify posters with high post counts but not those having high post rates simply because the forum software doesn't provide that information, other than by guessing which members to check. That meant that I had to gather statistics on the top N>50 members and from that look for those who would likely be in the Top 50 six months later. I picked N=75, gathering stats on the Top 75 and taking the Top 50 from the projected results. I did so again this time, but included the union of three sets: the Top 75 from a year ago, the Top 75 from 6 months ago, and the Top 75 now, ending up with stats on 113 members, projected and then reduced to the Top 50.

    If I want to post predictions for the Top 100, that would mean I needed to gather stats for even more members (say 150). It would be a never-ending battle to get more data so I could sift down to more results. That's why I stuck at 50.
     
  22. Flowbee macrumors 68030

    Flowbee

    Joined:
    Dec 27, 2002
    Location:
    Alameda, CA
    #22
    I owe my inclusion on this list to a recent couple months of unemployment. I'm working again... so I expect to drop off the list entirely next time around. I think the calculation based on date of registration thru present is probably a bit more useful (though, it was fun to see my name above Arn's on the top posters at the end of time list). :D
     
  23. virividox macrumors 601

    virividox

    Joined:
    Aug 19, 2003
    Location:
    Manila - Nottingham - Philadelphia - Santa Barbar
    #23
    now that im in summer i dont spend as much time browsing the forums. i also noticed that there are a lot less threads about ram :) which is a good thing but a ton of threads about pbook v the ibook :) hehhe i can explain my post count by saying i love posting odd bits of news everytime i read something funny or interesting
     
  24. wdlove macrumors P6

    wdlove

    Joined:
    Oct 20, 2002
    #24
    I don't think you give yourself enough credit Doctor Q. You happen to like math, each person should use his talent to best of their ability. You also wouldn't be doing this if it didn't bring you great joy of accomplishment. You shows in the detail in which you do the extrapolation. I think that you are no loner getting teased because they enjoy seeing their changes in time.
     
  25. Freg3000 macrumors 68000

    Freg3000

    Joined:
    Sep 22, 2002
    Location:
    New York
    #25
    I have never made any of these posting lists, but I must say that I enjoy them tremendously. I find it incredibly interesting and admire Doctor Q for having the will to compile all the of the data and then analyze it twice a year.

    Thank you for making MacRumors more enjoyable!
     

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