When will RAM prices come down?

[wiseguy27]

Ok, this is probably a bad question to ask, but does anyone have some idea about when the PowerMac PC3200 RAM prices will come down for the 1GB sticks? The 1GB sticks have been around the $100+ mark for a long time now and it looks like 512MB is more of the "sweet spot" in terms of pricing. I'm referring to the prices at DMS and OWC (not cheaper "non Mac tested" ones elsewhere) and my price comparison is drawn from http://www.dealram.com.

Any thoughts or ramblings?

 

[iGary]

Ok, this is probably a bad question to ask, but does anyone have some idea about when the PowerMac PC3200 RAM prices will come down for the 1GB sticks? The 1GB sticks have been around the $100+ mark for a long time now and it looks like 512MB is more of the "sweet spot" in terms of pricing. I'm referring to the prices at DMS and OWC (not cheaper "non Mac tested" ones elsewhere) and my price comparison is drawn from http://www.dealram.com.

Any thoughts or ramblings?

I believe CanadaRAM said that most of the factories are currently ramped for DDR2 RAM currently, decreasing supply for other types. And $100.00 ain't bad. I paid a lot more than that a couple months ago.

 

[CanadaRAM]

DDR RAM prices are expected to keep going up, while DDR-2 is coming down.

 

[revisionA]

Prices are already low...

Consider that I paid 150 for a 16mb Simm back in the day and thought it was a steal.

$

 

[wiseguy27]

DDR RAM prices are expected to keep going up,

I thought they were S L O W L Y coming down!!! Is there no hope for PC3200 RAM users?

while DDR-2 is coming down.

How ironic?! I'm feeling dizzy already!

 

[CanadaRAM]

How so, ironic?

The economies of scale follow demand. Demand follows the manufacturers. Virtually all manufacturers are delivering their new machines with DDR-2 RAM, so the fabrication plants have changed or are in the process of changing from DDR to DDR-2 chips, leading to increasing supply, competition and manufacturing efficiency of DDR-2, and decreasing supply and competition on DDR components.

Nobody is building new fabrication lines to build DDR components with newer and more efficient production technologies, so there is no innovation based reduction in price to be anticipated.


Other earlier examples:
If you want a 128 Mb EDO SODIMM, it will cost over $100
If you want 512 Mb of RAMBus, it will cost over $200
If you want SmartMedia 128 Mb cards -- well you just can't get them

All of these types are out of production and the price went up slowly, then sharply as supplies ran out.

 

[Will Cheyney]

RAM is dirt cheap now. I remember paying £200 for 512MB only 4 years ago!

Hell, I even remember when RAM worked out at £1 a MB.

 

[vga4life]

It's also worth pointing out that semiconductor companies in general and RAM makers in particular have quite a reputation for price fixing. Lots of litigation around this issue, but it keeps coming back.

Fundamentally, RAM is a commodity market with a small number of suppliers and very high barriers to entry, so there's a very strong incentive to collude to prop up prices.

CanadaRAM is right about mfrs shifting capacity to DDR2 production but I suspect that's not the only factor in play.

-vga4life

 

[Megatron]

So CanadaRAM and others, do you think now is the cheapest DDR will ever be? It's only going up from here? I guess I better get on with ordering my 1 gig stick.

 

[SmurfBoxMasta]

Supply & demand RULZ!!!!!!!

low supply + high demand = HIGH prices 4 sure

I remember when I bought my B&W, 256MB of PC100 was over $65
When the switch to PC133 first started, it went to ~$100 (supply down, demand up)

About a 1.5yrs later, somone overseas dumped a boatload (or 12) on the US mainland, and it bottomed out at ~$12 ....... (Supply UP, demand DOWN)

At which time I promptly bought 60 sticks, put 4 in my machine, sold some to my friends, and held the rest for later sale when the price went back up to ~$45.

Kinda stock market mentality, huh

 

[jefhatfield]

the longer one looks at the prices, and tries to watch their pocketbook, then one sees that the prices always come down

or if there is a steady price point of $100 dollars, usd, then the stick is upped from 32 megs to 64 megs (like in 2000) and one day soon you should be able to get gigs of ram for under $100 dollars...it's a waiting game that pays off for the patient shopper

there are periods when the price stagnates, but the industry does not allow that to happen too long otherwise nobody can make a profit

 

[wiseguy27]

the longer one looks at the prices, and tries to watch their pocketbook, then one sees that the prices always come down

or if there is a steady price point of $100 dollars, usd, then the stick is upped from 32 megs to 64 megs (like in 2000) and one day soon you should be able to get gigs of ram for under $100 dollars...it's a waiting game that pays off for the patient shopper

[Note: I haven't followed the memory market closely or even read about it before posting this. So please bear with me if I make any factually incorrect statements.]

Well, this is true in most cases, but in my case (which applies to several other Mac users), we got our dual PowerMacs earlier this year with DDR PC3200 RAM while the rest of the computer world moved fast into DDR2 (and the recent Macs have moved too). I might be able to get 4GB RAM for $100 after a year from now, but that **wouldn't work in my** PowerMac - so although the prices in general come down, the compatibility issue makes it a mess. If the DDR prices were to go up after another 2 years, it might probably make sense (this is from the perspective of my PowerMac bought this year and not from the current market scenario) - there seems to be a disconnect between the general market trend and what the Macs have used.

As vga4life pointed out, price fixing for memory chips is another factor that makes it expensive. Excerpt from today's news - "Samsung has just agreed to pay a $300 million fine for price fixing. Earlier this year, Hynix Semiconductor agreed to pay a $185 million fine; rival Infineon Technologies AG of Germany agreed to pay $160 million last year. A fourth chip maker, Micron Technology Inc. of Boise, Idaho, has been cooperating with prosecutors and was not expected to face charges."

Is there any hope that big corporations will learn a lesson that could actually benefit customers (and not a different way of fixing prices to ensure they're not caught)?