“This is how you got Trump” nonsense

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Rogifan, May 30, 2018.

  1. Rogifan macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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    #1
    On Twitter I often see from some of the Right this refrain of a certain action being why we got Trump. This time it was media distain for Conservatives. This was based on a Chris Hayes tweet that a significant portion of Trump supporters agree with Roseanne. We can quibble about whether it’s significant or not but that’s not why we got Trump.

    In the 2016 Republican primaries Donald Trump got 14M votes. Everyone else got 17M votes. Prior to the April 19 and forward primaries (where the race was all but over and most of the states were in the northeast) Trump didn’t crack 50% of the primary vote in any state. He got only 45% of the primary vote but 61% of the delegates because many states are winner take all.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Results_of_the_Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016

    The reason we got Trump is because of a crowded Republican field where the vote was split. Had it been a two-way race would Trump have received the most votes? And in the general election he got lucky that he faced an absolute horrible candidate with an awful campaign strategy (Hillary didn’t even visit states like a Wisconsin and Minnesota) plus a TON of free media. So please spare me the you got Trump because the media is mean to conservatives hot take. That’s not why we got Trump.
     
  2. Thomas Veil macrumors 68020

    Thomas Veil

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    #2
    We got Trump for a variety of reasons.

    Before anyone else brings it up, let me concede that part of the reason is because of inattention to the flyover states. It wasn’t disdain for them so much as an abandonment of Howard Dean’s 50 state philosophy.

    Much of it was the things you mentioned, Rogifan.

    And as I’ve mentioned before, our electoral college, which is supposed to act in part as a failsafe against lunatics and utter incompetents, just rubber-stamped the results and didn’t use their better judgment.

    And let’s not forget that some of it had to do with Russian propaganda and fake news fans all too eager to believe anti-Hillary malarkey and pass it on.
     
  3. ThisBougieLife macrumors 68000

    ThisBougieLife

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    #3
    Agreed, though I often hear one of the reasons given for why we got Trump to be "white resentment". I'm still not 100% clear on what that means, but it's probably just a more condescending way of saying Coastal Elites ignoring Flyoverland (well, that's not entirely un-condescending either). I think condescension and the resentment of that condescension was part of the pro-Trump climate. "Oh you poor little rural white folk, you don't know what's best for you" doesn't win you votes. Not that anyone said that, but it's an unfortunate attitude that sometimes comes across from the Democratic side. Sometimes that resentment is over genuine concerns (decline of the middle class, needs of rural America being ignored, etc.), sometimes it seems misplaced (the tendency to blame immigration for various woes), and sometimes you wonder how much of it has to do with a desire for the restoration of something that's never coming back (i.e. manufacturing jobs).

    I still find it interesting that a billionaire from New York became the voice of the "forgotten majority", but he pulled it off. Hillary (who represented the status quo) showed how the Democrats didn't know how to reach enough Americans. I'm sure historians will be answering "why we got Trump" for decades to come. It's an interesting question and there's no one easy answer to it.
     
  4. LizKat macrumors 603

    LizKat

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    We got Trump thanks to the confluence of a lot of situations and events. Since then a relatively few people have made a whole lot of private hay off it, or paved the road to make private hay at public expense in future.

    A fair number of people are just enjoying the chaos of Trump's incompetence and erratic public demeanor because they don't think it translates into anything that really matters.

    That's a fair sized mistake, but the biggest mistake that can possibly be made is in the offing yet, namely assuming that what happened in 2016 means much of anything and can be extrapolated and built on to score even more hay going forward. That's not the case, even though it's probably happening anyway. Greed leads generally to more of the same until it runs into a brick wall or a stretch in the pen.

    So going forward? Don't count on whatever's happened since 2016 to shed much light.

    1. Everything of heistable value, if anything, that is not nailed down and that belongs "to America" will have been setup for ripoff by somebody before November, thanks to the rampant corruption of this administration.

    2. No one has a clue what November will bring. Think about the poll questions you're being asked lately. I've never heard so much triangulation by so many interests in my whole political life.

    Thinking now about your congressman and Mr. Trump: would you say their views are strongly aligned, slightly aligned, not aligned at all or... you're not sure?

    Thinking now about your previous response regarding the relative importance of health care in your political priorities: would you say your response changes or remains the same if the ACA is repealed before November?

    Are you more likely, less likely or not sure you'll decide to vote for your Congressman's re-election if it turns out that he votes this year against full funding of the border wall President Trump wants built?

    Heh... thinking now about Mitch McConnell and Paul Ryan: sayonara guys, and you may be turning in your gavels early if you're still around at summer's end. Not saying the House will even flip but the GOP leadership posts in both houses seem fraught to me considering the upcoming budget issues. ​

    3. No one knows anything for sure about a possible impeachment of Trump after January. Mind you the effort might even be bipartisan. That's if an impeachment is even floated to see if he'll save us all the trouble and resign. My money's not on his voluntary early departure though. It's at least as dangerous legally speaking for him out there as a civilian as it is for him to remain in office as long as he can. I used to think he'd leave early from boredom. Now I don't think so.

    4. No one knows anything about 2020 primary candidates of either party (and I predict the GOP prez will be primaried, no matter if that's Trump or Pence or Ryan or ... Orrin Hatch? by then.

    5. Never forget that Trump has elevated lying to beyond an art form into a end in and of itself. The pollsters are all aware of this, but they are not sure how to correct for it. That's where fake news about real news has brought us.
     
  5. Rogifan thread starter macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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    In my opinion there was no one more condescending than Trump. Especially when he told blacks they have nothing to lose during rallies held rallies in affluent white suburbs. There is nothing more condescending than whites telling blacks you need us to save you. I’d say the same about a New York liberal billionaire going to the rust belt saying I am one of you. Vomit.
    --- Post Merged, May 30, 2018 ---
    Honestly I think we have Jesse Ventura to thank for giving us Trump. And as a Minnesotan I apologize for that. Ventura’s campaign manager, Dean Barkley, said he told Trump it’s not what you say it’s how you say it. And boy is that ever the case with Trump.
     
  6. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #6
    We got Trump for the same reason people slow down to stare at a bad car wreck.
     
  7. LizKat macrumors 603

    LizKat

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    Man I had almost forgotten about Ventura. I long for the possibility of forgetting Trump in turn.

    Could just about boil down to that. Doesn't really shed light on how we came to think we could afford to apply that to a presidential race though. Unless it's just that we no longer feel it's worth struggling to separate K street's campaign-dough hold on our congressmen from our votes to put them into office one more time to be around to get that dough and live through another contest. Even term limits don't seem to make a difference. The next dude is hooked on the money right away because they all know they need $$$ to run for even a second term.

    Only way out is probably to ditch the 2010 Citizens United ruling, and it does looks like that would take a constitutional amendment unless some legal wordsmiths can come up with something to persuade the justices to overturn that thing themselves from the bench sometime while ruling on another case. That seems doubtful in view of the current court's construction.

    If we on right and left ever get ticked off enough at someone aside from each other long enough to pass and ratify a constitutional amendment, it would seem like a miracle to me. Sometimes we barely agree in here on what time it is, even making allowances for time zone differences.

    However, "in here" is not the country in general. Anyone with a job has to get along well enough with other people to avoid getting canned a day at a time. Maybe working together and making K-street itself the declared enemy instead of castigating each other's political views is possible for a limited time and specific effort.

    After all, the way it is now, no matter who wins the elections, K street still writes the laws and doles out rewards to congresscritters for passing them. Those laws favor corporations and corporate oligarchies.

    The GOP went berserk after Obama merely floated the idea he might apply a litmus test for a future court pick that would run something like "must be willing to work towards overturning the Citzens United case." ( Apparently it's ok for the GOP to run [privately discussed] litmus tests about overturning Roe v. Wade though.)

    If the citizens themselves instead said "never mind about Citizens United, we'll overturn it ourselves" you could probably hear the GOP screaming all the way to China where such things are not left to ordinary citizens.
     
  8. Rogifan thread starter macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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  9. 0007776 Suspended

    0007776

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    #9
    I think a lot of it is politicians ignoring rural parts of the country, and if they don't ignore it actively trying to make things harder. Also there is a lot of racism from minorities directed at whites(I've personally experienced some), and for a lot of people in the middle who don't care much about race end up feeling that if both sides are going to be racist they are better off supporting the racists that at least like them rather than the racists that hate them.
     
  10. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #10
    I’m pretty sure that’s an Alaska only problem.
     
  11. 0007776 Suspended

    0007776

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    Definitely much more extreme up here, but I have encountered some in other parts of the country.
     
  12. ThisBougieLife macrumors 68000

    ThisBougieLife

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    That's definitely true; Trump was condescending to black people when he made statements like that and that's probably a factor in why black Americans as a demographic voted against him at the relatively high rate that they did.

    When I come across people who dismiss California as a "wacky" place that's not true America, I'm incredibly put off by them. If you feel like you and people like you are being talked down to, ignored, or denigrated by a politician or party, you're not going to want to give them your vote!
     
  13. LizKat macrumors 603

    LizKat

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    Ugh! A blast from the past! But :D I must say that watching Trump sit down and be a mostly invisible captive audience of Ventura (or anyone) for even 3 minutes at the beginning of that video was a hoot. After that it was weird listening to parts of what Trump and Ventura were saying, and thinking about how much has changed in American politics since the run-up to the 2000 elections. Some things never change though, and Trump's focus on himself is certainly one of them.
     
  14. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #14
    Trump won because of a perfect storm of events—to use a hoary cliche.

    As @Rogifan notes, Trump survived against more than a dozen weak Republican candidates not because he was especially brilliant, but because they were all so uniquely lousy.

    But, he also got lucky that the FBI decided to investigate Clinton publicly, and Trump privately. That people were primed for his racist, psuedo-populist rhetoric. And, that Clinton decided to run a terrible campaign with a growing, and frustrated insurgency from Bernie Sanders.

    Add in Russian propaganda, Facebook's leveling of news sources with your Aunt May's wackadoodle conspiracies, and you get the stew we're in.

    I suspect that the removal of two of these would have given Clinton the election.

    And, Ventura's strange election, which also gave us the weird era of Schwarzenegger in California—I'm still disappointed that neither Shane Black nor Carl Weathers landed a political gig.
     
  15. Rogifan thread starter macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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    #15
    I don’t think Ted Cruz and Marco Rubio were lousy. And Carly Fiorina gave one of the best speeches I heard all primary season at the Reagan Library. The problem is none of them took Trump seriously (and in the case of Ted Cruz, courted his voters). Jeb Bush and then Ted Cruz aimed all their fire on Marco Rubio. Bush because he thought it was his turn and was annoyed Rubio was running; Cruz because he felt he was the true conservative and once he got Rubio out of the way could go mano a mano with Trump. I think Rubio or Cruz absolutely could have beaten Clinton.
     
  16. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    #16
    I disagree, but I think you make some good points.
     
  17. alex2792 macrumors 6502a

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    #17
    I voted for Trump only because I HATE PC culture and LOVE the first amendment.
     
  18. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    PC Culture? Like all those whiney libs who moaned about kneeling NFL players and Michelle Wolf's comedy routine at the WHCD?
     
  19. chagla macrumors 6502a

    chagla

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    #19
    Idealistic Bernie supporters who chose to sit-in instead of voting is another factor.
     
  20. alex2792 macrumors 6502a

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    #20
    No, like the snowflakes on campus who want to replace the first amendment with a trigger warning.
     
  21. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    Or like Donnie No Brains who wants to limit the free press?
     
  22. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #22
    This is just remarkably foolish. Trump is the least supportive of the first amendment of any president in recent memory. Just last week he argued that people protesting the anthem should be kicked out of the country.
     
  23. LizKat macrumors 603

    LizKat

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    #23
    I definitely thought Kasich/Rubio or the other way around might have beaten Clinton.

    Cruz... lousy probably not the word but he burned so many bridges in the Senate early on that I figured the RNC would be affected and campaign money flow against him might move him down the ranks of possible nominees. He did rather better than I had expected. I loathed Cruz on policy but thought much more of him personally at the end in the face of how Trump behaved towards him... until he flipped and finally endorsed Trump, which paradoxically is apparently what redeemed him in the eyes of his party. Cruz clashing with Trump on facts and issues seemed to matter about as much as the Clinton-Trump debates: the 2016 election itself was never going to be about who had the facts in hand or could wax eloquent about the platforms.

    And we still haven't made facts matter enough in the aftermath, have we.​

    When push came to shove I suppose a lot of voters reverted to hot button issues like court picks to determine their vote if they didn't really like any of the candidates. It did not occur to me evangelicals would put that above Trump's character flaws. I had thought a Kasich/Rubio combo after the primaries might appeal to anti-Clinton voters far more than would Trump and whoever he'd pick for a VP. Honestly I never saw Trump beating Clinton in the general election, mostly because I was looking for competence but the electorate was more about "ugh we have to choose between two evils". I regarded Clinton as careless and fairly arrogant but not evil. I still do, although I wish she'd take a long vacation while the Dems sort themselves out. Trump's not evil either, he's just venal and lost in the swamp he's managed to make worse by being such a mark.

    I figured Trump was so atrocious a pick on the competence issue that I couldn't even believe the GOP convention machinery allowed his nomination. So, I thought it was Hillary's lucky day she didn't have to run against John or Marco. Live and learn.
     
  24. Rogifan thread starter macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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    #24
    According to the WSJ, Trump is telling people the NFL/Anthem thing is a winning issue for him. Look for the mid-terms to be full on culture war 24/7. I’m sure the phony war on Christmas will make an appearance too. He needs certain evangelicals to turn out this fall.
     
  25. LizKat macrumors 603

    LizKat

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    #25
    It's probably a safer roll of the dice than the GOP trying once again to repeal ACA this summer. Not all evangelicals are with the effort to do a health care repeal without replacement gig, and whatever else might happen with another try at ACA repeal, we know it would galvanize the Democrats' base and send them to the polls in November.

    So yeah, I can see these guys reverting to outright culture war issues. Stir the pot, get Trump's broadest base to the polls. It's the antithesis of #MAGA practicalities, but then logic doesn't mean a damn thing to the politics of Trump's fans. It's all about how great it feels to trigger liberals, etc. Weird though that triggering liberals in this midterm election could backfire big time.
     

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27 May 30, 2018