1,030

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by DUCKofD3ATH, Dec 24, 2016.

  1. DUCKofD3ATH Suspended

    DUCKofD3ATH

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    #1
    In boasting about his tenure in the White House, President Barack Obama often cites numbers like these: 15 million new jobs, a 4.9 percent unemployment rate and 74 months of consecutive job growth.

    There's one number you will almost never hear: More than 1,030 seats.

    That's the number of spots in state legislatures, governor's mansions and Congress lost by Democrats during Obama's presidency.

    It's a statistic that reveals an unexpected twist of the Obama years: The leadership of the one-time community organizer and champion of ground-up politics was rough on the grassroots of his own party. When Obama exits the White House, he'll leave behind a Democratic Party that languished in his shadow for years and is searching for itself.

    "What's happened on the ground is that voters have been punishing Democrats for eight solid years — it's been exhausting," said South Carolina state Sen. Vincent Sheheen, who lost two gubernatorial campaigns to Nikki Haley, President-elect Donald Trump's pick for ambassador to the U.N. "If I was talking about a local or state issue, voters would always lapse back into a national topic: Barack Obama."
    ...
    After this year's elections, Democrats hold the governor's office and both legislative chambers in just five coastal states: Oregon, California, Connecticut, Rhode Island and Delaware. Republicans have the trifecta in 25, giving them control of a broad swath of the middle of the country.
    The appropriate legacy for one of the most partisan presidents in our history. Karma on the job.

     
  2. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #2
    Let's see how Trump does. I doubt he will help Middle America.
     
  3. thewitt macrumors 68020

    thewitt

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    #3
    You were also certain he could not possibly be elected. How did that work out for you?
     
  4. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #4
    I was? Then I wasn't clear.
     
  5. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    #5
    Economy is awesome.

    https://www.google.ca/amp/www.daily...tting-75-year-high-America.html?client=safari

    All those part time Starbucks jobs are paying off.
     
  6. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    #6
    Well, my hat is off to the GOP - they played the long-game and it payed off. They started local and expanded to County, State Legislature, and then Governorships...throw in some gerrymandered districting, and you've got a Congressperson electing machine...well played.

    Despite this, American voters are fickle. The GOP will get it's moment in the sun over the next few years...but, if things don't improve in the minds of the average voter - the pendulum will just swing back towards the Democrats like it always does...
     
  7. Snoopy4 macrumors 6502a

    Snoopy4

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    #7
    So just like Obama then. He decimated middle America.
     
  8. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #8
    No he didn't. He just didn't improve it.
     
  9. Snoopy4 macrumors 6502a

    Snoopy4

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    #9
    I know plenty that beg to differ.
     
  10. ibookg409 Suspended

    ibookg409

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    #10
  11. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #11
    Anecdotes != Data.
     
  12. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #12
    This shift (as per @blackfox post above) was not about the winners of presidential races over the past 20 years.. It was about a decision by the evangelicals to run from the ground up, and it started over dissatisfaction on those social issues. School boards, town councils... then on up to town clerks, county supervisors, why not, they had learned how to win a race and how to speak in public so as to catch some independent voters next time around. The RNC caught on and started paying more attention because there was starting to be some good bench for governorships coming out of state assemblies all of a sudden.

    Meanwhile the Dems were out looking for star performers (fund raisers included) to slot into the governorships and the federal races. It's like the Dems sort of started to figure that candidates for Governor used to be a Mayor and candidates for Senator hatch out of Congress "somehow" and candidates for prez are... a Clinton?

    Three or four cycles like that and you're out of ammo. So all their "starting points" like mayors and congressmen were like bootstrapped from nothing? No, but the Dems just forgot where they came from and how to do ward politics. And then they were hell bent to capitalize on Clinton's base and organization from 2008 when 2016 rolled around.

    A lot of a party's energies can dissipate in short order when the focus is eight years up the road and homed in on the crowning of a star successor to a star upset winner, in order to nail down 12, maybe 16 years in the White House. Gigantic case of counting unhatched chickens.

    The DNC of 2014, up through late 2015 could easily draw a mental blank if some citizen mentioned the name of a Democratic state assemblyman as a prospect for higher office, and funds to run a candidate for sheriff or county DA were nonexistent.

    The lack of interest in funding lower level races is pretty shameful for a party that collects alms from the likes of Silicon Vally execs that talk about diversity and tolerance and so forth. Whatever the school boards advocate teaching, they don't sit around and talk about that. They ran for their offices as part of a mission talked up by the religious right ever since the early 90s.

    Now it's true that approach has caused the RNC some problems in federal races because their candidates increasingly primary each other from the right and then have trouble winning general elections. Trump, upset notwithstanding, was an exception to that rule of late and there's not a lot of assumptions any political party should make based on what happened in 2016. The Dems do have some good candidates to show off in 2020, but due to neglect of lower levels they're still behind the eight ball in bench for later races, except for the "upset" category, which of course is topical and so can fall to anyone.

    The reforming DNC needs to get a grip on turning their focus upside down because the progressives will unmoor from the party and do it themselves if the Dems aren't on board for local race participation going forward. They will not win any elections at federal levels doing it that way, but they'll start to split the left in state level races and make things even worse for the Democrats.
     
  13. samcraig macrumors P6

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    #13
    Yeah ok. Meanwhile Trump makes numbers up out of his keister and even after he's called out on it, he never admits he was wrong.

    Why would Obama talk about this? That's left to the pundits. Expecting Obama to talk about this number is like expecting Trump to talk about the number of law suits or failed businesses he's had. Has he ever? Doubt it. That's for others to discuss.
     
  14. Snoopy4 macrumors 6502a

    Snoopy4

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    #14
    Blame religion. Seriously? I knew people were out of touch, but dang.
     
  15. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #15
    Don't be so lazy in formulating a response.... especially since everyone who's not a newbie on these boards must know by now that I'm not anti-religious myself. I'd hardly "blame religion" for the Democrats' fall from grace with the people. On the contrary: in my post back there I credited the religious right for igniting something that turned out well over the years for the Republicans except for their perennial problem in converting a primary winner into a viable general election candidate.

    So I wasn't "blaming religion". I was acknowledging that political activism can be generated by social concerns, including those based on beliefs that may involve religion. A lot of golden-rule stuff fits well into all major religions, so it's not like someone running for town council as a Republican or Democrat who happens to be religious is marching in there with a catechism. They're marching in there with proposals based on how they like to or want to live their own lives. It's an equal opportunity occasion to run for town council. It's just the Dems have been skipping it in a lot of places where there are actually Democratic Party registrants on the rolls.

    With all due respect to Mr. Trump's victory, his upset was exactly that in a year of unusual candidates and populist pressure from both left and right; it does nothing to solve that lingering difficulty of a too-rightward primary winner tending to emerge from the early seasons for Republicans. They need now to moderate their appeal during the primaries or the demographics of country's future will not help them maintain power as time goes on.

    My own point in mentioning the religious right's focus, in trying to turn things more towards their views back in the 90s, was that their energy was properly devoted to grassroots effort. That is something the Democrats used to understand, and something the progressives now demand that the DNC once again recognize as critical for a rebuilding effort.

    The Republican Party's successful focus on social issues in grassroots appeals has allowed them to continue their business-as-usual approach to tax cuts at the top and cuts in social spending to pay for them, even though that approach carries little fruit for the grassrooots voters. It remains to be seen whether the new administration disappoints left-behinds yet again.

    Meanwhile the risk in serving the 1% on policy is higher this time since the right and left voters have already messaged the DNC and RNC they don't buy that old top down fiscal policy any more. Yet the new administration's Cabinet picks, while unusual, look primed to give the top of the top yet another boost while talking a whole other story. The show and tell of shoving American companies around via Twitter is... window dressing, and carries its own downsides.

    If the Democrats gave some thought to what the right has done in down-ticket elections, they would realize they that too could have been pitching progressive stances from the ground up on social issues (since the country is more moderate than not on most social issues). With a more involved and invested base, the Dems will have somewhat better luck making their own pitch on social safety net investment as crucial to the country's well being, including its potential for economic growth and fiscal stability.

    It helps to have some believers in the town councils and county manager chairs. Around here we have town fathers totally fossilized from lack of political competition. They sit around debating whether it's really "appropriate" to pitch to a Tractor Supply or a Target to come occupy a vacant slot in a village mall. Appropriate as compared to what? Maybe another gas station and convenience store? The most visible impact of the local Chamber of Commerce is sometimes one of those "Welcome to East Podunk" banners strung across the main drag. My feeling on those things is when you see one, you know the village is ripe for some grassroots action...
     
  16. DUCKofD3ATH thread starter Suspended

    DUCKofD3ATH

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    #16
    He'll try, which is more than the current prez did. And Trump may succeed. Stranger things have happened.
    --- Post Merged, Dec 24, 2016 ---
    It helps that Democrats and Liberals are so gosh-darned unlikeable. They never learn that their ideology is out of sync with the American mainstream.
    --- Post Merged, Dec 24, 2016 ---
    Given that "decimated" only affects a tenth of the working population, I think it's much worse:

    More young adults are living at home with their parents than ever before — and it looks like millions of them might be staying there for awhile.

    A new study found that nearly half of unemployed Americans have stopped looking for work — and most of them are under 30 years old, reported CNBC.

    The Harris poll of found 50 percent of those who had been out of work for two years or more have stopped looking for a job, and 43 percent of all unemployed Americans have given up, the cable network reported.

    About one-third of all jobless Americans are between the ages of 18-29, which signals a troubling trend in long-term unemployment.

    “This is a tale of two economies,” said Bob Funk, CEO of Express Employment Professionals, which helped conduct the poll. “It’s frightening to see this many people who could work say they have given up.”
    ...
    About 664,000 people were added to a record 94.7 million Americans who are no longer considered to be part of the labor force, according to the Department of Labor.

    Many of those nonparticipants have retired or gone back to school — but the rest have simply given up on finding work.

    The labor force participation rate has dropped to its lowest level since 1977, at 62.6 percent, but some economists say the worries are misplaced.​

    Obama has ravaged workers.
     
  17. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #17
    President Obama and the Dems (and some Republicans) did give it a shot, and succeeded in getting the recovery off the ground. That was largely despite assistance from the Republicans in the last six years of his two terms. Have you forgotten what he inherited for his first term and his contributions in helping to shepherd us back from the bottom? Republicans bewailed the bailouts yet they were clearly necessary... and did not cost the taxpayer in the end. Austerity was not the answer to the Great Recession yet we were treated to watching attention given to the banks that parlayed subprime mortgages into billions in profits before the crash, yet then came refusals to assist displaced homeowners who lost their jobs as the economy cratered along with the markets. Who sat on their hands after the banks regained their footing? Not the Democrats. The Republicans were the party of No NO NO NO. Even when Obama caved on subsequent budgets in order to gain consensus, the GOP was the party of NOT ENOUGH CAVE... Well never mind, the tables are turned now so we'll see how it goes...

    Oh please we are far more likeable than the people who want to get in our bedrooms and bathrooms and sell of our public lands for the taking of resources and the export of fossil fuels to countries stupid enough to think all they buy can afford to be burnt in a planet that can't take much more of those jokes any more. The American mainstream is not what you think it is. But keep believing it if you like. This election was about economic issues, not social ones (where Trump is not as far right as some hope anyway), and it was not about domestic policy switcheroos on energy, environment, health care, education. That wishlist is a trainwreck waiting to happen in the Senate. People want more jobs and a way to help their kids up the ladder but they don't want to give up clean air, water, public education and use of public lands to do it. Never mind health care and food safety, worker safety.

    There is a reckoning coming on a lot of the agendas Trump seems to be proposing, if that's what his cabinet picks so far are meant to indicate. On the other hand, who knows. He's into the art of the deal so those could be his opening salvos and he expects to have to revise some of those goals, if that's what they are. Sometimes I think he's just having us on. Other times I think he's forgotten he's only meant to be President, not a CEO.
     
  18. Snoopy4 macrumors 6502a

    Snoopy4

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    #18
    It wasn't an upset. It was a reflection of how out of touch people who think they know what the country wants have become. It's because they don't listen. It's really as simple as that.
     
  19. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    #19
    This cuts both ways. There are plenty of people who don't want what the current GOP or Trump want or represent.
    The sad fact is these two halves of the country actually both want pretty much the same things overall...but highlighting differences makes 24-hr news stations money, and gives lackluster politicians (of both parties) a convenient distraction away from their ineptitude.
     
  20. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #20
    Well of course it was an upset! Y'all have been saying so for weeks now, and it's true.

    And it was a reflection from both ends of the USA's political spectrum of pressure on the establishment to listen, and to quit carrying on as though no matter which side wins the federal elections, policy and therefore governance could continue to be shaped in K street for the benefit 1%. Everyone but the top tier is tired of that.

    My point in arguing for the Dems to emulate the behavior of the Republicans in local elections efforts is that grassroots activisim is what build a party's bench and its ability to reliably acquire power in state and higher levels of government.

    For the Dems to focus as they have in recent years on the star power that makes for a White House win is to give away the American store. That was part of Bernie's message, and it's not going away just because he lost the primaries to Clinton, who in turn was upset by Trump. Even though in the bottom line Trump is anything but a right-leaning populist, his candidacy was about "change" and both left and right wanted that. Enough people wanted that to override their party labels in 2016, once those who couldn't vote for either one decided to stay home.

    In a way the candidates for the national elections this year were proxies for the left and right both arguing against not the center but the status quo of governance by industry lobby. As our polarization has increased, thanks to media attention to divisive social issues, the only legislative action possible on other issues has been at the center because of party discipline (read: money and support for re-election) and thus some horse-trading at the margins.

    That's not such a bad recipe except that it's still K street driving the bus. The American people want to drive the bus now. It doesn't matter on Main Street so much whether we are left or right. We all have to make a living and buy groieres... It matters that we're on Main Street. When we ever realize that --and we may have come closer to it this year than in quite awhile-- then the power of K street will finally have got busted back more to considerations of actual constituencies: the left behinds, no matter of which party, instead of captains of industry and banks.

    Whoever attains the White House and fails to understand that sets up a legislative loss 2 years down road and loss of the Oval Office after a term. It doesn't matter as much as either the DNC or RNC would like to think which party manages to hit performance marks. It will matter if a party doesn't manage to get it done, though. Which is another part of why Clinton lost. She was proxy for continuation of policy, and that policy was found wanting.
     
  21. citizenzen, Dec 24, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2016

    citizenzen Suspended

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    #21
    It's a double-edged sword. You've run out of reasons to blame Democrats and put the target squarely on Republicans.

    Congress better pass that infrastructure stimulus bill quickly.

    I expect to see a much freer flow of government dollars, and far less concern about budget deficits.
     
  22. Snoopy4 macrumors 6502a

    Snoopy4

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    #22
    Who is ya'll?

    Clinton was a dumspter fire and this was the biggest beat down since Reagan smashed Carter. Maybe bigger.

    --- Post Merged, Dec 25, 2016 ---
    Denial.
     
  23. Eraserhead, Dec 25, 2016
    Last edited: Dec 25, 2016

    Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #23
    Couldn't agree more.

    I've just seen one of my pro Brexit friends post 24 days of Brexit. I agree with about ~90% of the points he's raised and agree ~75% of them are correctly targeted at the EU.

    Main point of disagreement is whether we can credibly form trade deals outside of the EU. And to an extent who exactly is to blame (i.e whether it's Westminsters fault or Brussels)
    --- Post Merged, Dec 25, 2016 ---
    Except for Reagans wins, Obamas wins, Bill Clintons wins, Bush Snrs win, and arguably Dubyas win in 2004 when he also won the popular.
     
  24. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #24
    Was Clinton forecast to win it? Yes. Did she win it? No. Therefore it was an upset. "Y'all y'all" is any and all who were gleeful at Mr. Trump's unexpected win and the success of Mr. Kushner's organization of a last minute push in the rust belt states Trump narrowly tipped to secure their EC votes.

    But keep reading front ends of posts and not bothering to collect the accolades I've handed out to the Republicans in my posts. Among the points of my last three or four posts has been that Republicans have done well to focus on the bottom of the pyramid rather than banking on helicoptering a "star" into the top tiers of ballots.

    Mr. Trump wasn't helicoptered in. He surprised. He was fueled by populism and had downticket coattails that had been building in the right's down-ballot efforts since the 90s. If you don't like to acknowledge the GOP's successes at grassroots level, that's your concern LOL.

    The other points of my last three or four posts are that the progressives have reflected on this, the DNC may or may not get it, but in any case do need to return the Democrats' attention to grass roots level as well.
     
  25. DUCKofD3ATH thread starter Suspended

    DUCKofD3ATH

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    #25
    You still don't get it. Democrats have the media, universities, Hollywood, and music/vid celebrities lauding Liberal ideals and castigating Conservatives 24/7. With that sort of brainwashing you guys should rule it all, regardless of what those obstructionist sexist fascist homophobic racists the Republicans say.

    And yet Democrats and Lefties are being repudiated by America.

    Someday you guys will wake up and realize that it's what you espouse that's the problem. After every loss Liberals claim the Democrats weren't Left-wing enough. And then they move more to the Left and lose again. Rinse and repeat until there are no Libs no more.
     

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