$10,000,000 in 24 hours!

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by stevento, Apr 23, 2008.

  1. stevento macrumors 6502

    stevento

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  2. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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  3. stevento thread starter macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #3
    yeah right. dont be jealous because Hillary has slapped the pundits in the face with this victory. :p
     
  4. motulist macrumors 601

    motulist

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    #4
    Ugh, please stop with the blatant partisan rewriting of history. Just about every single pundit on the planet said that hillary was going to win Pennsylvania, the only question was was her percent of victory gonna be enough to change the course of the primary. Her wining by the not overwhelming margin that she won by does nothing except extend the status quo of this grueling primary.
     
  5. ArmyKnight12 macrumors 6502

    ArmyKnight12

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    #5
    I'm amazed at how much these candidates can raise with our struggling economy and all.
     
  6. stevento thread starter macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #6
    every pundit was saying "she'll squeeze by 2 to 5 points and there will be more pressure on her from the party to quit because her campaign is going broke and her support is drying up and everyone hates her. and this campaign is going to drag on to the convention because she just cant get the math"
    someone here said she'd net 10 delegates tops, but she netted 15. so that punditry was obviously defied.

    but the people of PA had different plans. they gave her a double digit victory and 10 million bucks in 24 hours and the cash hasn't stopped pouring in. she's got the momentum to make the math.
     
  7. GfPQqmcRKUvP macrumors 68040

    GfPQqmcRKUvP

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    #7
    How do you think?


    a) People care about politics
    b) The economy isn't as bad as the alarmists portray it on TV


    Either one is a good thing.
     
  8. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #8
    Not sure I buy either of those reasons.
     
  9. stevento thread starter macrumors 6502

    stevento

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    #9
    people disagree on whether or not we are in a "recession" but we know americans are hurting. and this isn't going anywhere good.
     
  10. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #10
    If you take the percentages she only won by 9.3% so she didn't really get a double digit victory, it's error compounded by rounding, it's really a 54.66% to 45.34% victory, not a truly double digit one. My prediction seems to be holding true. It was enough of a victory to keep her hopes alive, although not enough of one to actually help her. Superdelegates are still not flocking to her and are just hanging out in a holding pattern to see how things go over the next couple weeks and the next primaries.

    She now needs somewhere around 68%-69% of the vote in the remaining states to catch up in pledged delegates and NC is the largest state left which Obama currently holds double digit leads in the polls. Even if they tie there she'll need more than 75% of the vote in the remaining contests to catch up. And they're pretty much tied in terms of the popular vote as long as you give Obama at least half of the MI uncommitted vote (I think you advocated 80% in another thread).

    The $10 million puts her campaign back in the black (if you don't count the $5 million loan to herself and $4.5 million they owe Mark Penn's firm). So her campaign is merely out of money, not in debt.
     
  11. ArmyKnight12 macrumors 6502

    ArmyKnight12

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    #11
    I've never given money to a political campaign for good reasons. They would just waste it on negative ads which ultimately hurt our political system.
     
  12. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #12
    Wow- talk about splitting hairs.

    Not to be rude, but your constant posting of ridiculous Hillary cheerleading posts is getting quite annoying, especially when you refuse to accept reality. This "victory" didn't do anything substantial for her campaign. The polls and pundits predicted a much larger victory for her, but Obama closed tha gap on her. You seem to not be able to grasp that.
     
  13. PlaceofDis macrumors Core

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    #13
    so she has about 1million at most after paying off the money she owes, not including the money she donated from herself. yeah that sounds great.

    anyways, she gained little to no ground in delegate count, and is behind in states won, and behind in the popular vote. so pretty much behind in every aspect.
     
  14. NAG macrumors 68030

    NAG

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    #14
    I think she still has slightly more supers. Could be wrong about that.
     
  15. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #15
    It also can make some people oblivious to news surrounding their candidate. I'm less likely to want to hear or process negative news about a candidate I have put some of my own money behind.

    Really I'm just a cheap bastard, but I like to think it keeps me more open minded. :D
     
  16. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #16
    Is there any way she can win short of a back room deal cooked up by the party bosses and fixers?
     
  17. PlaceofDis macrumors Core

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    #17
    ah yes she has 23 more supers according to CNN.

    i agree with your first and second point.

    i would donate more for a general election rather than for the primaries though.
     
  18. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #18
    I donate 100 times more in the general than I do in the primaries :D.
     
  19. PlaceofDis macrumors Core

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    #19
    guess i should have phrased that better, i would be more inclined or willing to donate for the general than the primaries.
     
  20. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

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    #20
    She can't win the popular vote, no. She most likely can't even beat him in pledged delegates either.
     
  21. atszyman macrumors 68020

    atszyman

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    #21
    Well she can make the case that she has the popular vote by ~160,000 at the most. If you only count contests that awarded delegates (use Washington's caucus, and not the primary), and leave out the double counting of the TX caucuses, and give her the 328,000 in MI and count FL. If you add in the uncounted caucuses and primaries it shrinks to around 100,000 votes, still giving none of MI to Obama.

    Now if you start giving Obama only a fraction of MI's uncommitted vote (237,762 last time I checked) the lead narrows or disappears depending on your counting method and how many of the uncommitted you give to Obama. It looks like he'll have a big win in NC which could erase her lead by any counting method. Of course she could also get enough votes to give all the uncommitted to Obama and still lead (regardless of the caucuses) but then you have to make a case to count FL and MI as is because without those Obama leads by 400,000 - 450,000 votes.

    You'd think counting votes wouldn't be so difficult, but leave it to politicians to create a math system that has so many loopholes.
     
  22. OscarTheGrouch macrumors 6502

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    #22
    Hillary hasn't raised all that much- her campaign is in debt up to her eyeballs from what I hear.

    Obama however is doing just fine because of all the wonderful supporters out there he has.
     
  23. miloblithe macrumors 68020

    miloblithe

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    #23
    Lee, you're overplaying Obama's hand a bit. This was a solid victory for Clinton, and certainly helps her. Although realistically, barring a catastrophic gaff by Obama, she can't actually win.

    As an Obama supporter, I agree with the logic that if Obama has the larger number of pledged delegates come the end of the primaries, there's no way the supers will overturn the "will of the people." Clinton supporters are focused on the "popular vote," which she theoretically can catch him in. If you count the Florida vote, she's only 205,000 votes behind. This doesn't include the Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine caucuses though. realclearpolitics estimates that those states translate to a popular vote lead for Obama of 316,000 votes, or 610,000 if you (fairly) exclude Florida and Michigan.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2008/president/democratic_vote_count.html

    Realistically though, it looks like Obama's got a solid shot at having more "popular votes" than Clinton even if you count Florida, Michigan, Iowa, Nevada, Washington, and Maine. He's only 12,000 behind now, and he'll most likely get more votes in the remaining states (with NC being the biggest remaining state.

    Regardless, it looks like Clinton won't end up with either more pledged delegates (Obama will lead by at least 100--he currently leads by about 150) or more votes (unless you, ridiculously, count Michigan as 328,000 votes for Clinton and 0 for Obama--and even then she might not).
     
  24. ucfgrad93 macrumors P6

    ucfgrad93

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    #24
  25. obeygiant macrumors 68040

    obeygiant

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    #25
    [​IMG]
     

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