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Apr 12, 2001
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Apple may sell fewer Apple Watch models in 2016 than it did in 2015, according to research conducted by KGI Securities analyst Ming-Chi Kuo and shared by Business Insider. According to Kuo, the new Series 1 and Series 2 Apple Watch models suffer from a lack of "killer" applications, inadequate battery life, a heavy reliance on the iPhone and a multi-touch UI that he does not feel will be the ideal solution for wearable devices.

The Apple Watch, says Kuo, has failed to impact sales of the Fitbit, and he does not believe the more affordable Series 1 models will lead to a higher number of sales.

apple-watch-series-2-2-800x395.jpg

As a result of these perceived shortcomings, Kuo has cut his estimates for 2016 Apple Watch shipments by 15 to 25 percent, projecting sales of 8.5 to 9 million units during fiscal 2016. Kuo made similar predictions in April of 2016.
"Based on these considerations, we revise down our 2016F shipments projection for the entire Apple Watch line from 10.0-10.5mn units to 8.5-9.0mn units (vs. 10.4mn units in 2015)," writes Kuo. "We now predict 2016F Apple Watch sales will decline from 2015 (with shorter selling time of eight months)."
Apple does not break down Apple Watch sales numbers and has never revealed how many of the wearable devices have sold since April of 2015, making it difficult to pin down just how well it's doing with customers. IDC estimates shared over the summer suggest Apple sold 1.6 million units during Q2 2016, down from 3.6 million estimated units in the second quarter of 2015, aligning with Kuo's prediction.

It's important to note that estimates for Apple Watch sales sometimes vary wildly, however. For example, during the March quarter, Swiss bank UBS estimated sales of 1.6 million units, while Strategy Analytics estimated sales of 2.2 million.

The new Apple Watch Series 2 looks identical to the Series 1 Apple Watch models but includes better waterproofing to make it suitable for use when swimming, GPS, a faster dual-core processor, and a brighter display. Series 1 models also feature a faster processor, but are otherwise unchanged from the original Apple Watch.

More substantial changes are expected for the 2017 Apple Watch, including an exterior redesign.

Article Link: Apple to Sell Fewer Apple Watch Models in 2016 Despite Launch of Series 2
 

Red Oak

Suspended
Jun 14, 2011
470
2,641
In the meantime, all Series 2 are sold out for the next month

Series 1 will be promoted during Christmas by desperate retailers @ $199. It will generate huge volumes

Someone really needs to keep tracker on Ming-Chi Kuo to see what % of predictions come true
 

jon67

macrumors newbie
Oct 2, 2011
11
42
I waited til Series 2 came out and then got the original in stainless steel on eBay. It already had os3. Wow, I am totally impressed by it. Making phone calls on the wrist is the killer app for me (didn't see that coming). Also am finding the health stuff to be subtly amazing and I see where Apple is headed. I think the interface is superb, not sure where this analyst would suggest improvement. Oh and I am getting a lot of style points too with my classic leather buckle.
 

Piggie

macrumors G3
Feb 23, 2010
9,109
3,974
I feel we kinda know where this is going.

There is a demand for sports use of course, and there is the gimmic/cool side of it, but really, it's not something that's going to get adopted large scale. Not yet anyway.

Apple has made the best effort, and I'm sure will keep it running.
Perhaps it's just the tech is not ready yet?

I work with people who have had various smart watches, and keep going back to their nice normal ones.
Watches ARE most mens jewellery item, and something that's personal to them.
Wearing a black rectangle, just does not have the same feeling.

Perhaps this will just be another Apple TV, the loyal fans stick by it, but for the most part it just sits there ticking over in the background?
 

Born Again

macrumors 601
May 12, 2011
4,023
5,217
Norcal
No surprise at all. It's still not compelling to own the watch. It has to be purposeful to the owner not just for fanboys. For myself because i am a triathlete i would never look at an Apple watch. It's Garmin 735xt or a Fenix 3. If i didn't do sports then I would only consider the Apple watch because im a fanboy.

Unfortunate news guys but even the iPhone 7 isn't selling any better than the iPhone 6S of last year! http://bgr.com/2016/09/26/iphone-7-sales-decline/

We are in the downward trend of growth with Apple.
 

Applefanben

macrumors member
Oct 3, 2016
38
95
I hate to say it but I have found myself totally underwhelmed by the Apple product lineup here lately. Macs are neglected, iPhones are simply minute upgrades, Apple Watch is well blah (can we get better design and battery life?), and the Apple TV is still way behind the Roku lineup. I own all of the above Apple products, just in case you wanted to know. Overall, I love the Apple ecosystem and how, most of the time, it works really well together. But, I see Apple falling behind the curve if something doesn't change. I'm afraid they are going to end up making the mistake Microsoft did years ago with wanting to stay the same in phones and no longer innovate or see the changing market and become irrelevant. Just like Microsoft and mobile. Venting over with, I'm just frustrated with the current Apple product lineup that is so underwhelming.

And yes this is my first post long time reader and comment reader.
 

MattA

macrumors 6502
May 15, 2006
459
203
Orlando, FL
The only change to the lineup I'd like to see is series one watches coming with nylon bands. I'm not a real fan of the sport bands, but I still don't want to spend another $50 for the band that I want. It'll probably push me to a series 2 watch, but I'll have to wait a bit longer to get one.
 

69Mustang

macrumors 604
Jan 7, 2014
7,895
15,043
In between a rock and a hard place
They already do.

These analysts are annoying, always portraying "growth = success". Why can't success just be a healthy dose of sales and profitability rather than selling more than everybody else?
Stock market. The market doesn't give two shots about Apple's sales and profitability. Growth or G.T.F.O. Pretty simple. Kuo is a market analyst. You do the math.
 

stanhope

macrumors regular
Mar 25, 2015
161
53
"Based on the fact that I don't like the product, it will probably sell less."

Can we stop posting this guy, please?

He's an idiot that is probably leaving breadcrumbs on the yellow brick road to Oz, the prison where sodomy is an everyday occurence.
 

Stella

macrumors G3
Apr 21, 2003
8,837
6,334
Canada
I love my original Apple Watch. But unless you're a serious swimmer, why would you upgrade? Especially at the ridiculous prices they want for a smart watch

There are cheaper alternatives even if you were a serious swimmer, with better battery life etc.

If Apple priced the watch a few hundred dollars cheaper, it would sell in far greater numbers - Better value for money than most other health straps / watches. At the current pricing, I don't see the Value for Money in the Apple Watch.
 
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