273-265

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by yaxomoxay, Nov 2, 2016.

  1. yaxomoxay macrumors 68000

    yaxomoxay

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2010
    Location:
    Texas
    #1
    According to today's RCP map, no toss-ups.
    273 Clinton, 265 Trump.
    Trump got AZ, UT, NC back (and Florida earlier).

    Toss-ups are awfully close:

    Ohio (18) 44.3 46.8 Trump +2.5

    Florida (29) 44.5 45.5 Trump +1.0

    North Carolina (15) 46.3 47 Trump +0.7

    Colorado (9) 43.7 41.3 Clinton +2.4

    Nevada (6) 44.3 44.8 Trump +0.5

    Iowa (6) 40.3 41.7 Trump +1.4

    New Hampshire (4) 46 41.3 Clinton +4.7

    Virginia (13) 47 42.3 Clinton +4.7

    Arizona (11) 43.3 45.7 Trump +2.4

    Maine CD2 (1) 41.7 41 Clinton +0.7


    PS: I really don't think that polls are meaningful when the result seems to be so close, I open this thread just to discuss a little bit.
     
  2. Plutonius macrumors 603

    Plutonius

    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2003
    Location:
    New Hampshire
    #2
    I don't believe anything in this year's election.
     
  3. yaxomoxay thread starter macrumors 68000

    yaxomoxay

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    Mar 3, 2010
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    #3
    I believe we're screwed anyways! ;)
     
  4. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

    BoxerGT2.5

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    #4
    The fact that someone like Trump could get that close to a career politician with 30+yrs of government experience goes to show you how bad of a candidate she is. I'd be embarrassed if I was her. You barely beat a modern day Hitler by 8 EC votes.
     
  5. jkcerda Suspended

    jkcerda

    Joined:
    Jun 10, 2013
    Location:
    Criminal Mexi Midget
    #5
    She has to cheat to beat a decrepit socialist. I am yet to see a Hillary sign in CA
     
  6. iapplelove macrumors 68040

    iapplelove

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2011
    Location:
    East Coast USA
    #6
    I gave you an upvote cause I agree with the first half.

    But if you are comparing Trump to Hitler you need to go back and do your homework on Hitler.
     
  7. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

    BoxerGT2.5

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    #7
    I don't think he is going to set up death camps and invade Canada. Hitler's rise to power was due to his nationalist propaganda regarding the lack of economic growth following the Great Depression. Hitler put it all on the Jews, Trump you can take your pick; Mexicans, Muslims, the Chinese, NATO, ect.
     
  8. haxrnick macrumors 6502a

    haxrnick

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    Aug 4, 2011
    Location:
    Seattle
    #8
    Going to disagree here. So many cheer when their guy/girl is in the lead and then when it swings the other way immediately say polls don't matter. There were so many on the right, not just talking about here, that said the polls were so off and skewed against Romney. Come voting day they turned out to be almost dead on. Polls mean more than people like to believe and are probably pretty accurate.
     
  9. yaxomoxay thread starter macrumors 68000

    yaxomoxay

    Joined:
    Mar 3, 2010
    Location:
    Texas
    #9
    When you're so close you can use a poll as a general reference on trends, but I wouldn't bet my life on it.
     
  10. iapplelove macrumors 68040

    iapplelove

    Joined:
    Nov 22, 2011
    Location:
    East Coast USA
    #10
    Yeah, I guess you do need to go back and do some more homework.

    I spent almost 10 years of my life studying the rise and fall of Hitler, Germany, the Nazis etc..
     
  11. shyam09 macrumors 68000

    shyam09

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    Oct 31, 2010
  12. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

    Joined:
    May 18, 2004
    #12
    I haven't seen a yard sign for either of them........it's been a VERY quiet election locally.

    (in the last week I've seen 2 ads for hillary on television but none the whole election for trump)
     
  13. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

    BoxerGT2.5

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    Jun 4, 2008
    #13
    That's great! My family lived it.
     
  14. yaxomoxay thread starter macrumors 68000

    yaxomoxay

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    Texas
    #14
    My family and my wife's family lived fascism, slightly different but still meaningful.
    Listen to Nial Ferguson's explanation on why Trump is not Hitler and whoever claims so should read more history. And he supports Hillary.
     
  15. Gjwilly macrumors 68030

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    SF Bay Area
    #15
    On which side?
     
  16. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

    BoxerGT2.5

    Joined:
    Jun 4, 2008
    #16
    The side trying to get away from the Nazi's and what they were doing. Some in Germany, some in Poland. Half of my family is from north east Germany now known as Mecklenburg-Vorpommern and they spanned down to Berlin.
     
  17. yaxomoxay thread starter macrumors 68000

    yaxomoxay

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    #17
    Both of my grandfathers were in the military.

    My grandfather on my father's side was a Colonel in the Army, he ended up being arrested by the Nazi during the RSI period. He was treated fairly well, and he was one the few officers without a Fascist party membership, which saved him later on. He was never a fascist. A nazi colonel friend of his told him that Italy became the enemy, and told him not to remove the uniform so that they could be treated as military individuals and not traitors. My grandfather had no clue about it, he thought that Germany was still allied. He gave order to his troops to keep the uniform on, and they were spared their lives. Unfortunately other Colonels did not believe him, not giving the order to keep the uniform on, and several soldiers were put in front of the firing squad.

    My grandfather on my mom's side was a Carabiniere, and ended up being in the personal staff of Mussolini as protection service. They met only a few times. Almost all of his friends were killed during the war, he was never a fascist, but since he was a uniformed man he had to flee from Milan when Mussolini was hanged in Piazzale Loreto. At the end of the war the Nazi tried to arrest him and he escaped by miracle (he claimed that Virgin Mary helped him). After the war he got a job thanks to an entrepreneur that he helped survive during the war. The entrepreneur was a jew, arrested, and my grandfather gave him half of his food portion everyday, risking his life. Of course the individual was forever grateful.

    In my wife's side, her grandfather from her mom's side was jailed for three years, and tortured, and tortured, and tortured again as a traitor. He died a few months ago, at 99, and the scars of the tortures were still visible. He then swore against any form of dictatorship, and became an elected parliamentarian for the Christian Democratic party (DC), and he also wrote a book about his experience.

    I wished I had more time to spend with my grandparents, they all died that I was fairly young, certainly before I could ask them any meaningful question and understand the implications of their lives. It's something I regret very much, sometimes I wonder what I could've learned from them.
     
  18. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    Location:
    the faraway towns
    #18
    I was lucky enough to interview my grandfather for a project before he died, and he told me some remarkable stories about his role in WWII, many of which he kept a secret from his children until then.

    He'd served as a landing craft driver and felt responsible for the men he delivered to the beachhead. At one point, just as they dropped the ramp, a mortar round landed right in front, shredding two of the men in front. My grandfather turned his boat around and raced back to the troop ship, hoping to get them to a medic, but they were both dead.

    As they evacuated the bodies, they were ordered to reinforce the first wave, so as his chief tried to sop up the blood, more men climbed down into the boat.
     
  19. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

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    Apr 20, 2009
    #19
    I'm not sure another women, say Elizabeth Warren, would have faired better. People don't like to admit it but there is a lot of misogyny out there. The mindset that a women cannot be president is very real in some people. Sure some women might be voting for Clinton because she is a women, but how many people aren't voting for her because she is a women?

    Take emails, Benghazi and any other issue you want off the table. Would Hillary be a stronger candidate against Trump? I don't think so.

    As Obama said yesterday, there is a reason a woman has never been made President before.
     
  20. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

    Joined:
    May 3, 2009
    Location:
    USA
    #20
    Except, in the past, two things were often said:

    a) people always complain about lack of term limits (which is counter-intuitive to creating and maintaining such experience and talent)
    b) Obama had no experience and was a community organizer, or is that why people want experience now? I'd believe that.
    --- Post Merged, Nov 2, 2016 ---
    Just don't mistake those who practice misogyny for those who cite actual concerns. Big difference.

    And, while not as frequent, misandry also exists. And reverse-racism.
     
  21. zin macrumors 6502

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    United Kingdom
  22. shinji macrumors 65816

    shinji

    Joined:
    Mar 18, 2007
    #22
    You don't think so? Any time Hillary's scandals come to the forefront, she takes a tip in the polls, just like we're seeing now with the new Comey drama. If it wasn't for the email scandal, Benghazi, Whitewater, etc., I think she'd be doing a lot better.

    Warren, Gillibrand, and others wouldn't have had to worry about any of that.
     
  23. CaptMurdock macrumors 6502a

    CaptMurdock

    Joined:
    Jan 2, 2009
    Location:
    The Evildrome Boozerama
    #23
    New Quinnipiac polls (got this off another forum):

    FLORIDA: Clinton 46 – Trump 45, Johnson 2

    NORTH CAROLINA: Clinton 47 – Trump 44, Johnson 3

    OHIO: Trump 46 – Clinton 41, Johnson 5

    PENNSYLVANIA: Clinton 48 – Trump 43, Johnson 3

    Link
     
  24. MadeTheSwitch, Nov 2, 2016
    Last edited: Nov 2, 2016

    MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    #24
    Yes. But much like racism it's hard to parse what is a real reason vs. misogyny hiding behind an excuse.
    --- Post Merged, Nov 2, 2016 ---
    No, I really don't think so. I think if you don't like Trump and believe in democratic policies and platform, you don't allow a supposed scandal to derail you and rush to support the other candidate and saddle yourself with a conservative Supreme Court for 40 years.
    --- Post Merged, Nov 2, 2016 ---
    And as those numbers show, it's not really Trump rising, but rather Johnson collapsing that is causing the race to be tighter. If Gary Johnson had never been in the race and everyone was choosing between only the top two candidates all along, the numbers would have looked similar the entire summer. Johnson had at one time 8-12% in a lot of states. At least one was at 15% at one point. But now he has crashed down to only 2-5%.
     
  25. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2004
    Location:
    Catskill Mountains
    #25
    OK I'm gonna do my wrap-up on political yard signs around here this season.

    In a time of great polarization, and in a country deciding between two candidates with sky-high unfavorable ratings, it's probably not unusual for so few presidential yard signs to be up. I guess in some gated communities where like minded people may have gathered, it could be different. But the overall level of enthusiasm is not high and in some places there's a fear of retaliation like vandalism or whatever for having the "wrong" sign out there.

    Even right around where I live in this rural upstate NY county --very conservative as far as congress and state legislator picks are concerned-- there are hardly any signs up for either one of the Presidential candidates. There are some signs for down ballot races and they're the usual mix of parties since the district is leaning purple lately.

    Maybe it's because the district is starting to lean purple that folks are omitting the signs.

    In the nearest village there's now one Trump sign and another one out in the flats towards town. A couple of signs for the progressive Dem running for Congress, and a couple signs for a conservative running for something or other. And that's it. Up in the hills towards two other towns there are more Trump signs. In the towns proper there are more than a few Clinton signs and some mixed in with Republican down-ballot candidates' signs/

    There were many more signs for both Obama and McCain last time out even though the Obama ones used to get removed sometimes. But it's odd how people in a conservative district who are going to vote for Clinton (and I know five or six around here) aren't putting it out there this year. More afraid of misogynist retaliation than they were of retaliation by racists I guess. Interesting. There is still a strong current of "women should stay in their place" that can run through the rural stretches here, and it shows up in odd ways sometimes.

    It's not that long ago you could be "told" to have your husband come to discuss "all those details" if you asked the price of different options on a car you looked at in a showroom. It happened to me in 2006. I was more shocked than when it happened to me in 1986.

    So I guess it's not that much of a surprise if some guy voting for Clinton decides not to advertise it on his lawn even now. Might seem like he went to the dark side against his bro-bros and then who's even gonna let him buy a round again at the bar.

    Sigh. A lot of things are a little simpler for women even if we get treated as lesser beings sometimes. At least we don't mind letting people know when we change our minds about something, and we're long since inured to the jokes about that. Men should maybe try it more often, it can be refreshing to take another look at assumptions and learned beliefs.

    There was one place out a county road from here that had a Trump and Clinton sign on it for awhile. Now there are no signs on that lawn. I'm so intrigued but I don't want to ask...

    Happy Election Day next week, whether you do or don't telegraph your votes: Just vote.
     

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