Analyst sees stark future for iTunes


840quadra

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Feb 1, 2005
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"iTunes is positioned to increase hardware sales for Apple. Other services focus on content. Apple is about to make the same mistake that they made in the PC world. They also lost their lead they had with computers in the 70s and 80s."
Really?

I would like to see his research results showing how many iTunes donloading customers actually own an iPod. I think the customer number would be higher then all of the total iPod devices sold to date.

Though I may be wrong.
 

the_mole1314

macrumors 6502a
Sep 16, 2003
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Akron, OH
iGary said:
All credibility lost right here:



Read no further.
Why do I have a feeling that this "market research" involved watching a Napster ad, recieveing a check, then writing the article? Nothing to bolster your stock prices that have fallen after Yahoo announced a subscription model than have so called "experts" say you'll toppel the giant....
 

iGary

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May 26, 2004
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the_mole1314 said:
Why do I have a feeling that this "market research" involved watching a Napster ad, recieveing a check, then writing the article? Nothing to bolster your stock prices that have fallen after Yahoo announced a subscription model than have so called "experts" say you'll toppel the giant....
Exactly.

I'll repeat again:

Apple has the player, the jukebox and the store. No one else does.

End of story.
 

Applespider

macrumors G4
840quadra said:
I would like to see his research results showing how many iTunes donloading customers actually own an iPod. I think the customer number would be higher then all of the total iPod devices sold to date.
I'm not quite so sure about that one; I know more iPod owners who haven't downloaded music from iTunes (10 in my dept at work) than non-iPod owners who have (1 - Mum who's now thinking iPod).

Tho with over 10m iPods and 400m songs sold and it being unlikely that everyone's bought 40 songs, then there must be quite a few non-iPod owners buying too.
 

wordmunger

macrumors 603
Sep 3, 2003
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North Carolina
Applespider said:
I'm not quite so sure about that one; I know more iPod owners who haven't downloaded music from iTunes (10 in my dept at work) than non-iPod owners who have (1 - Mum who's now thinking iPod).

Tho with over 10m iPods and 400m songs sold and it being unlikely that everyone's bought 40 songs, then there must be quite a few non-iPod owners buying too.
I bought over 100 songs from iTMS before I finally bought an iPod shuffle a couple weeks ago.
 

jkhanson

macrumors member
Jun 17, 2003
83
0
If this is what passes for research . . .

can I be an analyst? Does this guy actually get paid to put out this crap?

He assumes that Apple would change nothing in response to subscription services gaining market share. Like many others, he assumes that Apple will "repeat the mistakes it made in the PC world." Apple never enjoyed anything like the market share it has with iPods. All the economies of scale favor Apple. The ecosystem of third-party products is built primarily for the iPod. That was never the case with the Mac.

Down the road, I think it is very possible that Apple will license the iPod's operating system to other manufacturers. But this will only happen when margins fall to the point where there is more profit in selling the content than the players.

This guy may not have noticed, but introducing the Shuffle, while maintaining close to 90% market share of hard-drive players, has allowed Apple to seize greater overall market share during the past few months. It's hard to say how long this can continue, but there is a war over formats right now and Apple is in a very strong position. Why cave in to Microsoft now? I have to believe that Apple is keeping very close watch on market trends and consumer preferences. They will make the move at the right time.

Besides, the future for Napster looks much bleaker with Yahoo now in the picture. How long can Napster take quarterly losses of $15-20 million? Before the new Yahoo service, they could perhaps count on market share growth to bring profitability, but that is highly in doubt at this point.
 

emw

macrumors G4
Aug 2, 2004
11,177
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iGary said:
All credibility lost right here:

Read no further.
Yup, buying 10,000 songs on CD is a lot of money - no one would ever do that. :rolleyes:
 

nagromme

macrumors G5
May 2, 2002
12,551
1,186
And not to belabor the obvious, but:

* Songs cost .99 only as singles--in which instance, they're MUCH cheaper than buying the whole CD for just one song. The average price I've paid for songs is around .70 (not counting freebies) because when you do want an album, the cost is usually less than .99/song. (And less than I can buy a physical CD for around here--convenience aside.)

* Few people NEED to fill 10,000 songs. Few people buy the really big players, and those that do often use the space for other kinds of data, or simply like the idea of the space "just in case" they someday need it.

* Even if you DO put 10,000 songs on your player, and even change them monthly, you can't listen to them all. What good does that quantity of songs loaded from Napster do you if you never hear them? If a tree falls in the woods... ?

* Imagine the labor and download time involved with finding and then obtaining 10,000 songs from Napster. Yeah, THAT'S a realistic scenario :rolleyes:
 

macFanDave

macrumors 6502a
Apr 14, 2003
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Obvious fraud.

Martin Olausson is obviously a paid FUDster because he cannot even keep his story straight. He goes on and on about how much more expensive the iTunes model is compared to subscription models, but then he says:

He also notes that major record companies are "dissatisfied" with the revenue they receive from download sales.
OK. If they are dissatisfied with the revenue generated from download sales, how are they going be satisfied with the (much smaller) revenue generated by subscriptions? The FUD is caught in its own lies.

If revenue is the driving factor for the continuing participation of the major record companies, the obvious future is to not allow their wares to be distributed by the supposedly cheaper subscription model but to go exclusively with the fair download-and-own iTunes model.
 

SiliconAddict

macrumors 603
Jun 19, 2003
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Chicago, IL
iGary said:
All credibility lost right here:
Read no further.


Credibility regained here:

In fact, Milunovich earlier this week claimed that Apple could "flick the switch" and turn on a subscription service if they felt it necessary.
Bolded for emphasis. Tell me what possible incentive does Apple have to go to a subscription model if they are sitting at 70% online music sales, 90% hard drive based music player, and not having their sales nibbled at by subscriptions. I personally doubt they would be making more money off of a subscription based system then an outright purchase. Idiots. This is more Apple trashing because its trendy.
 

iGary

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May 26, 2004
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SiliconAddict said:
Credibility regained here:



Bolded for emphasis. Tell me what possible incentive does Apple have to go to a subscription model if they are sitting at 70% online music sales, 90% hard drive based music player, and not having their sales nibbled at by subscriptions. I personally doubt they would be making more money off of a subscription based system then an outright purchase. Idiots. This is more Apple trashing because its trendy.
I bet this guy doesn't own, nor does his company own, a single share of Apple, either.
 

SiliconAddict

macrumors 603
Jun 19, 2003
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Chicago, IL
840quadra said:
Really?

I would like to see his research results showing how many iTunes donloading customers actually own an iPod. I think the customer number would be higher then all of the total iPod devices sold to date.

Though I may be wrong.

Well to be fair go to www.quicktime.com and look at the download for quicktime for Windows. You can't download just quicktime anymore. The only option is Quicktime WITH iTunes which I think is BS on Apple's part.
 

mklos

macrumors 68000
Dec 4, 2002
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My house!
SiliconAddict said:
Well to be fair go to www.quicktime.com and look at the download for quicktime for Windows. You can't download just quicktime anymore. The only option is Quicktime WITH iTunes which I think is BS on Apple's part.
Yes, but you have the option to install either or. Apple did this to make it easier for noobies. You need to have QuickTime installed in order to use iTunes.
 

iMeowbot

macrumors G3
Aug 30, 2003
8,643
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SiliconAddict said:
Well to be fair go to www.quicktime.com and look at the download for quicktime for Windows. You can't download just quicktime anymore. The only option is Quicktime WITH iTunes which I think is BS on Apple's part.
They still have it separate for Win98. Is that actually a different build of QuickTime, or did they simply not bother to mention the NT family?
 

coolfactor

macrumors 601
Jul 29, 2002
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Vancouver, BC
SiliconAddict said:
Well to be fair go to www.quicktime.com and look at the download for quicktime for Windows. You can't download just quicktime anymore. The only option is Quicktime WITH iTunes which I think is BS on Apple's part.
Take a 'nother look hoobie...

http://www.apple.com/quicktime/download/win.html

They label the QuickTime-only option for Win 98/ME because iTunes doesn't work with those versions, but the QuickTime is the same.
 

Fender2112

macrumors 65816
Aug 11, 2002
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Charlotte, NC
SiliconAddict said:
Credibility regained here:



Bolded for emphasis. Tell me what possible incentive does Apple have to go to a subscription model if they are sitting at 70% online music sales, 90% hard drive based music player, and not having their sales nibbled at by subscriptions. I personally doubt they would be making more money off of a subscription based system then an outright purchase. Idiots. This is more Apple trashing because its trendy.
Incentive? The other 30% :D
 

asif786

macrumors 65816
Jun 17, 2004
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London, UK.
i must say, i love the new apple quicktime site design!

back on topic, i love downloading from itunes. there's a number of reasons why i do so:

i) in london a cd-single is £2.99-£3.99. i find this a high price to pay when you only want one song..

ii) it's so convenient - i hear a song a like and i just search and buy. i can have the song found and downloaded within 15 seconds if i want. that's luxury.

iii) it's supporting apple. i would rather buy this song from apple instead of hmv. it's great to see the numbers and know that you contributed..

iv) i dont care much about quality. as long as it sounds decent, i'm happy. it's certainly better than some of the terrible encoding some other services give (except allofmp3).

the one thing i dont like is the fact that i cant listen to my music using itunes sharing (without authorization first). this kind of annoys me, but there's always ways around that if you can be bothered.

overall, i think itunes is great. i'm not much of a money saver, but there's no way i'm going to pay the recording industry £4 for a cd single.

and lastly, cd's make clutter. and i *hate* clutter. so there. :)
 

Fender2112

macrumors 65816
Aug 11, 2002
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Charlotte, NC
SiliconAddict said:
Well to be fair go to www.quicktime.com and look at the download for quicktime for Windows. You can't download just quicktime anymore. The only option is Quicktime WITH iTunes which I think is BS on Apple's part.
I was also a bit troubled about this. I can understand bundling QT when you download iTunes. But if all I want is QT i should not have to download iTunes to get it.

The only thing I can figure is that Apple is pushing Quicktime the same way MS pushes WMA by bundling it with other stuff.
 

cwtnospam

macrumors regular
Sep 4, 2004
148
0
iTunes too costly, but subscription brings in more money???

I can't believe the number of "analayts" who miss this point. They say on the one hand that paying 0.99/song is too costly, but on the other the record companies like the greater income from subscription services! The record companies know the truth: the subscription model costs the consumer more money, which allows them to make more money.

It's a zero sum game, so the model most preferred by the recording industry is the one consumers should avoid.
;)
 

NOV

macrumors 6502
Mar 27, 2004
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The Netherlands
The only benefit I see from other services is the fact they sell through a 'normal' website and not through a specialized application like iTunes. It's not a big thing but it may be a treshold in attracting potential new customers.
 

Fender2112

macrumors 65816
Aug 11, 2002
1,077
268
Charlotte, NC
I have a feeling that in a year or two when things settle, there will a mix of paid and subscription services. These are two different models which allow customers to have a choice. It's not much different from the video business where rentals and purchases coexist.

I think Apple will offer subscriptions before the end of the year. Log in to iTunes and take your pick. Rent songs or buy the ones you like. Want a video? Click here to view on demand for 24 hours. Or click here to download a burnable copy.

It's coming, just a matter of time.
 

Fender2112

macrumors 65816
Aug 11, 2002
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Charlotte, NC
NOV said:
The only benefit I see from other services is the fact they sell through a 'normal' website and not through a specialized application like iTunes. It's not a big thing but it may be a treshold in attracting potential new customers.
I don't view this as a benefit. The user is at the mercy of compatibilty between the web site and web browser.