And as usual, Apple's stock drops after the Expo....

Mr. Anderson

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So after watching the trends from the past couple expos I've noticed that Apple's stock *always* goes down right after the Expo. Not very much this time, but its an interesting trend none the less.
 

Mr. Anderson

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Original poster
Nov 1, 2001
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Well, one of the reasons I've been looking is trying to find the trend. I'll have to go back and look at the specifics from MWSF - when the hype was really flying. And there was a huge drop last month, but I'm not sure what that was all about.

Knowing the trend, though, you could sell right before the Expo and rebuy the next day. Since this has happened every time in the past couple years its been a pretty consistant event. I might just do it for SF '03 - I don't own that much stock, but enough that even a small price dif will more than pay for the sell/buy fees.

D
 
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sneed

macrumors regular
Jul 12, 2002
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Los Angeles
hold on to it.

This has been happening as long as I have followed Apple, so you could probably call it a trend, but I wouldn't use it for a quick profit grab unless you had tons of stock (like Apple execs perhaps?).

Given the market, and current value of Apple stock (before and after MWNY, ) the best Apple strategy is to just hold on to it. Your best chances for profits are in the long term.

This comes from my wife, who other than being damned cute, works for a resepected, and still successul financial company that shall remain nameless.
 
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topicolo

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Jun 4, 2002
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unfortunately, we're at pretty much exactly where we were back in 97-98 as far as aapl stock is concerned. no appreciation in 4 years?!?!?
 
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2Step Garage

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Apr 19, 2002
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buy?

given the current price of apple's stock do you think this a good time to buy? i have no clue about investing... but this is the lowest i have seen it in a while... any suggestions? I should probably just save my money, hehe... i dunno even know why i asked this question.
 
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sneed

macrumors regular
Jul 12, 2002
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Los Angeles
its the market not Apple

Wait for the economy to get better, and you'll see some good movement. We all know that Apple, regardless of speed, wins on style, and style is what counts these days; lifesytle specifically.

Apple, for better or worse, is positioned to take advantage of that. So long as they stay the course, they are going to get big again. Lets not forget, also, the cash they have in reserve.

Given the state of the market, staying the same ain's so bad.
 
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sneed

macrumors regular
Jul 12, 2002
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Los Angeles
Re: buy?

Originally posted by 2Step Garage
given the current price of apple's stock do you think this a good time to buy? i have no clue about investing... but this is the lowest i have seen it in a while... any suggestions? I should probably just save my money, hehe... i dunno even know why i asked this question.
I would.
 
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topicolo

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Jun 4, 2002
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Well, if they do break throught that 52 week low resistance point, you're screwed :). Let's hope not. The recent disappointment in their 2nd quarter results may have been foreshadowed by the large number of insider selling a couple of months back. Does anybody know when the 2nd quarter report is out? I need to see if their inventories and acc'ts receivable are up before doing anything
 
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Mr. Anderson

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Well, it might beat that in the next couple of days. Wait till Monday, weekend trading might have an effect. Right now its at 14.99 - that puts it almost -$2 from the pre MWNY price. Not a bad drop if you were planning on getting some now. It will most likely go up a bit in the next couple of months. The true kicker will be in August when Jaguar ships and new machines come out. I have no idea how that will effect the price....

D
 
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sneed

macrumors regular
Jul 12, 2002
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Los Angeles
Originally posted by topicolo
Well, if they do break throught that 52 week low resistance point, you're screwed :). Let's hope not. The recent disappointment in their 2nd quarter results may have been foreshadowed by the large number of insider selling a couple of months back. Does anybody know when the 2nd quarter report is out? I need to see if their inventories and acc'ts receivable are up before doing anything
I believe they are, and I seem to remember that there are warnings for Q3 as well. At this point, there isn't any point in buying Apple stock unless you are looking for long term investment IMHO.
 
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topicolo

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well, if there were already warnings for Q3, that info will already be factored into the price by now (Yes, I'm a believer in the efficient market theory). I think i'm going to put aapl on my watch list and maybe buy it a week or two before the rumoured announcement date for the new towers. I think the pent up demand for the towers will help apple beat their lowered expectations. Do you have a link to the warning about the 3rd quarter?
 
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sneed

macrumors regular
Jul 12, 2002
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Los Angeles
Originally posted by topicolo
well, if there were already warnings for Q3, that info will already be factored into the price by now (Yes, I'm a believer in the efficient market theory). I think i'm going to put aapl on my watch list and maybe buy it a week or two before the rumoured announcement date for the new towers. I think the pent up demand for the towers will help apple beat their lowered expectations. Do you have a link to the warning about the 3rd quarter?
Excuse me, I was one off. The warnings are for Q4, Q3 met targets.

http://money.cnn.com/2002/07/16/technology/apple/index.htm

Apple is up to 15 by the way.
 
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Durandal7

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Feb 24, 2001
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duke, I've noticed that the stock drops after most any APPL announcement. I recall that after the iPod was introduced the stock dropped some.
 
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Mr. Anderson

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Nov 1, 2001
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Originally posted by asurace
duke, I've noticed that the stock drops after most any APPL announcement. I recall that after the iPod was introduced the stock dropped some.
if that's the case, its amazing that it ever goes up enough to offset all the announcements. I'll be watching closely in August when Jaguar and the new machines come out.

D
 
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Durandal7

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Feb 24, 2001
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Originally posted by dukestreet


if that's the case, its amazing that it ever goes up enough to offset all the announcements. I'll be watching closely in August when Jaguar and the new machines come out.

D
It's somewhat bizzare that investors bail when the company introduces improved products. Most companies stocks go up when they do that.
 
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3rdpath

macrumors 68000
i wouldn't buy yet

i think we're gonna see another drop before aapl hits bottom-probably around 12.75 to 13.50. and even though they've foreshadowed some future bad news..it doesn't mean they can't restate their projections.

which is what they did a while back-and thats how they recently "met" expectations...

i think they're positioning themselves to be an amazingly diversified powerhouse in the future but its going to take some time..and it will only pan out when consumer spending goes way up. remember, most of their products and the majority of their future market share will probably be in the "luxury" classification.

remember when sony was primarily known for transister radios?

but i really await macktheknife's comments....hetheman :D
 
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topicolo

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Jun 4, 2002
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Ottawa, ON
heheh, just leave it to Bush and his illegal insider trading to bail us all out eh? God I wish we were back in the internet boom.

In my opinion, Apple WILL recover, it just needs time. The entire market is in free fall and that's why Apple's stock drops after each announcement; people are just waiting for good news to try to recap some of their losses. This can't continue forever so on the upside, it leads to some nice deals on Apple stock in the short term :)
 
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topicolo

macrumors 68000
Jun 4, 2002
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Ottawa, ON
Oh yeah, I forgot about the potential catastrophe if Microsoft pulls out of mac development. It has been rumored for a while, since they're not obligated to develop for Apple anymore.

If M$ does pull out, it may not affect mac power users as much, since we can just keep using old versions of office and ie (yuck), it would seriously hamper the credibility of the mac for a newbie user. (you mean this CAN'T run M$ office? How will I read my email?)
 
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