It will eventually trickle into the $1800 slot. Expect this within 2 years. They always introduce these things at the highest price points, make the highest margins on them, then as the manufacturing process evens itself out, they end up in less expensive models as well. $1800 models refurbished in basic configurations for a current generation tend to fall around 10-15% off. 15% is realistic enough, and this would give you a machine below $1700, or you may find a deal from one of the third party retailers. Given the relative pricing of the 13" Air, you may simply need a small amount of elasticity in your budget. I'm just not sure I see the 15" models dropping much lower new. The 15" models used to be more than they are today.
I see much of their leverage for budget restricted consumers falling into the refurbished market. We hear about many returns, which means they're likely sitting on a lot of refurbished units. They're still trying to clear a number of 2011 units. This is likely due to a loose return policy. It wasn't always this way. They may be trying to clear 2011s so as not to lose sales when introducing used 2012 options. I can't remember what they were charging on refurbished 2011s prior to 2012 availability.