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Fomalhaut

macrumors 68000
Original poster
Oct 6, 2020
1,901
1,595
I, like many others, bought a 2019 MBP16 based on many positive reviews and the claim that it "fixed all the thermal throttling issues and had killer dGPUs". Possibly unwisely, I upgraded it to what I thought was a good spec for 4-5 years' use - 32GB RAM, 1TB SSD, 5500M 8GB dGPU.

Then the M1 came along and upset the apple cart....

For my usage, the M1 Macs were clearly better in nearly every way at a much lower cost, with the exception of the 16GB RAM limit being less than desired.

My MBP16 is still a good computer, but in the new Apple Silicon world, it no longer represents good value.

I'm considering selling it and getting one of the new models, but a little voice is telling me not to jump too soon in case there are other significant changes around the corner (or as yet unknown issues with the recently-released models).

That said, I doubt that anything as revolutionary as the shift from Intel to Apple Silicon will occur for many generations, if ever, so my concerns are probably unwarranted.

I could stick to my original 4-5 plan for the Intel MBP16 and replace it with whatever Apple releases in 2023/24. I would just have to accept that I "got on the train at the wrong station" and live with my sub-optimal choice for the next couple of years.

Or I could take the financial hit of selling the MBP16 early for whatever I can get (probably less than it would have been, had Apple Silicon not arrived) and shell out again for a new model.

In your opinion, what is the optimal time to replace an Intel MBP with Apple Silicon? (and many will say "last week", before the new ones were announced :) )
 

cardfan

macrumors 601
Mar 23, 2012
4,372
5,522
There’s no optimal time to replace except when it stops doing what you need it to do. As for intel value holding I’m not unhappy with the trade in for mine. They seem to hold up normally. If anything you have something that apple isn’t selling any longer. An intel mbp. People do have use for them. Works with windows. eGpu.
 

Mentok

macrumors newbie
Mar 5, 2020
11
1
I am in a somewhat similar situation. At the early last year I had no choice to get a new computer as my 2014 13" pro had totally failed, it would have been great if it lasted a few more months until the m1 chips where out.

It's also overkill for what I need (basic coding and data analysis). I thinking now of selling it and getting an Air or iMac/mini (I was waiting to so how the M1 pros where). Just don't know if I should wait or not, but the longer I wait the less I can get for my 16".
 

UBS28

macrumors 68030
Oct 2, 2012
2,893
2,340
I, like many others, bought a 2019 MBP16 based on many positive reviews and the claim that it "fixed all the thermal throttling issues and had killer dGPUs". Possibly unwisely, I upgraded it to what I thought was a good spec for 4-5 years' use - 32GB RAM, 1TB SSD, 5500M 8GB dGPU.

Then the M1 came along and upset the apple cart....

For my usage, the M1 Macs were clearly better in nearly every way at a much lower cost, with the exception of the 16GB RAM limit being less than desired.

My MBP16 is still a good computer, but in the new Apple Silicon world, it no longer represents good value.

I'm considering selling it and getting one of the new models, but a little voice is telling me not to jump too soon in case there are other significant changes around the corner (or as yet unknown issues with the recently-released models).

That said, I doubt that anything as revolutionary as the shift from Intel to Apple Silicon will occur for many generations, if ever, so my concerns are probably unwarranted.

I could stick to my original 4-5 plan for the Intel MBP16 and replace it with whatever Apple releases in 2023/24. I would just have to accept that I "got on the train at the wrong station" and live with my sub-optimal choice for the next couple of years.

Or I could take the financial hit of selling the MBP16 early for whatever I can get (probably less than it would have been, had Apple Silicon not arrived) and shell out again for a new model.

In your opinion, what is the optimal time to replace an Intel MBP with Apple Silicon? (and many will say "last week", before the new ones were announced :) )

I’d say the time is now. The next update will just be a spec bump. And I believe the A15 is only 10% faster than the A14 if I remember it correctly.
 

Macintosh IIcx

macrumors 6502a
Jul 3, 2014
612
598
Denmark
I, like many others, bought a 2019 MBP16 based on many positive reviews and the claim that it "fixed all the thermal throttling issues and had killer dGPUs". Possibly unwisely, I upgraded it to what I thought was a good spec for 4-5 years' use - 32GB RAM, 1TB SSD, 5500M 8GB dGPU.

Then the M1 came along and upset the apple cart....

For my usage, the M1 Macs were clearly better in nearly every way at a much lower cost, with the exception of the 16GB RAM limit being less than desired.

My MBP16 is still a good computer, but in the new Apple Silicon world, it no longer represents good value.

I'm considering selling it and getting one of the new models, but a little voice is telling me not to jump too soon in case there are other significant changes around the corner (or as yet unknown issues with the recently-released models).

That said, I doubt that anything as revolutionary as the shift from Intel to Apple Silicon will occur for many generations, if ever, so my concerns are probably unwarranted.

I could stick to my original 4-5 plan for the Intel MBP16 and replace it with whatever Apple releases in 2023/24. I would just have to accept that I "got on the train at the wrong station" and live with my sub-optimal choice for the next couple of years.

Or I could take the financial hit of selling the MBP16 early for whatever I can get (probably less than it would have been, had Apple Silicon not arrived) and shell out again for a new model.

In your opinion, what is the optimal time to replace an Intel MBP with Apple Silicon? (and many will say "last week", before the new ones were announced :) )
I have the same MacBook Pro model as you and I’m contemplating a switch too. The disappointing thermal performance is my biggest issue because I run it with an external 4K screen pretty much all the time (two screen setup for work) and the heat is an annoyance. We would both be wise to wait a couple of weeks and see how the new models play out. There will always be quirks - there question is whether they are an issue for you or not.

I’m also thinking about getting the upcoming iMac “27 instead though, so I might have to wait it out until March 2022 to figure it out.

BTW, I’m not convinced that the next year’s version of M1 Pro and M1 Max will be that much faster. I think we will have to wait to 2023 when the 3nm process is ready for production from TSMC.
 

senttoschool

macrumors 68030
Nov 2, 2017
2,588
5,359
I’d say the time is now. The next update will just be a spec bump. And I believe the A15 is only 10% faster than the A14 if I remember it correctly.
A15 is actually a massive improvement over the A14.

The efficiency cores of the A15 have also seen massive gains, this time around with Apple mostly investing them back into performance, with the new cores showcasing +23-28% absolute performance improvements, something that isn’t easily identified by popular benchmarking. This large performance increase further helps the SoC improve energy efficiency, and our initial battery life figures of the new 13 series showcase that the chip has a very large part into the vastly longer longevity of the new devices.
 

Falhófnir

macrumors 603
Aug 19, 2017
6,146
6,999
The only problem I had was I thought screw getting the Intel 16" altogether when the Arm one is just a year away ?‍♂️ 23 months later and here we are finally!
 
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leman

macrumors Core
Oct 14, 2008
19,351
19,401
I’d say the time is now. The next update will just be a spec bump. And I believe the A15 is only 10% faster than the A14 if I remember it correctly.

A15 is only slightly faster, but uses less power which probably means that it can be clocked higher. I’d expect around 3.5 GHz in the M-series (which should put it around 2000 Geekbench single).
 

Fomalhaut

macrumors 68000
Original poster
Oct 6, 2020
1,901
1,595
The only problem I had was I thought screw getting the Intel 16" altogether when the Arm one is just a year away ?‍♂️ 23 months later and here we are finally!
At the time I bought the MBP16, I thought ARM was still likely to be "several years away" - people had been talking about ARM-Macs being "around the corner" for years previously, and I wasn't confident that I would see them as soon as we did.

I'll wait to see the in-depth reviews and let early adopters discover any weak points, and then reconsider.

What is the current opinion on when an A15-based spec-bump might be expected? Before June next year, a year from now, or could Apple renew the MBPs on an 18-24 month cadence? I would have no problem waiting for June, would consider Oct/Nov 2022, but moving it out to 2023 would be a long wait. I don't currently have any desperate need for an upgrade, but I would like better battery life, less heat/fan noise, and improved GPU performance for video editing (my 5500M struggles a bit with my camera codecs; I know I could use proxies, but it would be nice not to have to bother - first world problems!).
 
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Falhófnir

macrumors 603
Aug 19, 2017
6,146
6,999
At the time I bought the MBP16, I thought ARM was still likely to be "several years away" - people had been talking about ARM-Macs being "around the corner" for years previously, and I wasn't confident that I would see them as soon as we did.

I'll wait to see the in-depth reviews and let early adopters discover any weak points, and then reconsider.

What is the current opinion on when an A15-based spec-bump might be expected? Before June next year, a year from now, or could Apple renew the MBPs on an 18-24 month cadence? I would have no problem waiting for June, would consider Oct/Nov 2022, but moving it out to 2023 would be a long wait. I don't currently have any desperate need for an upgrade, but I would like better battery life, less heat/fan noise, and improved GPU performance for video editing (my 5500M struggles a bit with my camera codecs; I know I could use proxies, but it would be nice not to have to bother - first world problems!).
Well, Kuo is saying late 2022 for the next Air, which would maybe suggest M series chips get a generational update every second year (M1 2020, M2 2022, M3 2024 etc). And in the interim years the M Pro/Max chips get updates (2021, 2023 etc).

The A series chips (which usually debut the new architecture and core designs) are on a yearly cycle, dropping in September annually. That makes a 2 year cycle easier to maintain than an ~18 month one or whatever when there's a lot of products relying on M chips that have update cycles all over the place. It gets insanely complicated (and probably expensive/ wasteful) otherwise.

That also means every M series update gets the benefit of two generations of architectural improvements from the A series. At the moment Apple are getting 15-20% improvements a year, so this way the M series chips get at least 30% Single core and that can be further padded for Multi core if they fit more cores in future chips.

Of course they could move away from this to even yearly M chips once the transition is over and the supply constraints ease!
 
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zarathu

macrumors 6502a
May 14, 2003
631
358
I am 72 years old: old enough to be the father or grandfather of 90% of the posters here. One thing I have learned to do in my life is to NEVER NEVER NEVER second guess decisions I made with the best information I had at the time.

If you buy a M1Max now, and in 2 years they make one that is 8 times faster, do you feel suddenly burned? Think again.
 

Lammers

macrumors 6502
Oct 30, 2013
449
345
I was thinking about this recently. I suspect no Apple product has ever depreciated as rapidly as 15” and 16” high-end MacBook Pros bought over the last couple of years have now. Lots of people bought the i9/32GB/1TB spec (including me), and those laptops are now rendered largely worthless.

As others have said, technology always marches on, but I think that is particularly acute with this transition because of how dramatic the change is with this new generation.

The thing that I think might catch people out is Face ID. Clearly that will come to Mac at some point, and I’m certain that Apple could have done that already and have simply chosen not to. When that comes it will be seen as a major step in Mac user experience, again quickly rendering existing devices outdated, so if that comes in the next couple of years I think the early adopters of these new MacBook Pros will have a little resentment and buyers remorse. But we’ll see.
 

matram

macrumors 6502a
Sep 18, 2011
781
416
Sweden
When Apple has a stable cadence I would expect
I am 72 years old: old enough to be the father or grandfather of 90% of the posters here. One thing I have learned to do in my life is to NEVER NEVER NEVER second guess decisions I made with the best information I had at the time.

If you buy a M1Max now, and in 2 years they make one that is 8 times faster, do you feel suddenly burned? Think again.
Only 68 but I concur. Buy now if you have real need and buy based on what you need now. Future proofing is a waste of money and there will always be a new model that is better than the old.
 

Queen6

macrumors G4
I am 72 years old: old enough to be the father or grandfather of 90% of the posters here. One thing I have learned to do in my life is to NEVER NEVER NEVER second guess decisions I made with the best information I had at the time.

If you buy a M1Max now, and in 2 years they make one that is 8 times faster, do you feel suddenly burned? Think again.
Benefits of wisdom and above all common sense ?

Q-6
 
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ksj1

macrumors 6502
Jul 17, 2018
294
535
I was thinking about this recently. I suspect no Apple product has ever depreciated as rapidly as 15” and 16” high-end MacBook Pros bought over the last couple of years have now. Lots of people bought the i9/32GB/1TB spec (including me), and those laptops are now rendered largely worthless.
Disagree. I got almost $1100 in trade-in for my 2018 i9/32/512 when I ordered my M1 Max.
 

darngooddesign

macrumors P6
Jul 4, 2007
18,170
9,857
Atlanta, GA
I'm considering selling it and getting one of the new models, but a little voice is telling me not to jump too soon in case there are other significant changes around the corner (or as yet unknown issues with the recently-released models).

Two things:

1. Waiting for teething problems to be revealed is perfectly valid.
2. There are no better MacBook Pros around the corner; unless that corner is two years away.

The value of your 16" is only going to decline until it plateaus so my suggestion is to just put it up for sale now and upgrade whenever that happens.
 
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Chancha

macrumors 68020
Mar 19, 2014
2,129
1,917
Think of it this way:
- The 16” was like the only model from the touch bar era that didn‘t totally suck, and you already got one year of use from it, will be more if you keep it.
- from my experience, aside from the thermals, the 16” is a really nice package of a laptop and the current M1 Pro models actually built from it.
- performance is still excellent especially with your config, will be years away until Apple Silicon native apps become the norm where Intel Macs are phased out
 

06tb06

Cancelled
Sep 12, 2017
183
138
I don't feel the same.

My MBP16 is still a good computer, but in the new Apple Silicon world, it no longer represents good value.

Ask yourself how much your life will change if you upgrade to the 2021 model. My life wouldn't change much. I value my 2019 MBP so much more because of all the pictures and videos of family and friends that are on it. Therefore, in my opinion, it holds more value than any other Intel Mac or Apple Silicon Mac.
 

Fomalhaut

macrumors 68000
Original poster
Oct 6, 2020
1,901
1,595
I am 72 years old: old enough to be the father or grandfather of 90% of the posters here. One thing I have learned to do in my life is to NEVER NEVER NEVER second guess decisions I made with the best information I had at the time.

If you buy a M1Max now, and in 2 years they make one that is 8 times faster, do you feel suddenly burned? Think again.
Wise words indeed....

To be fair (to myself) I did make an informed decision in buying the MBP16, and the introduction of something better was not reliably predictable, so I don't think I made a mistake. It's hard to avoid some emotional reaction when you realize that the hand you hold isn't quite as good as you had hoped...but c'est la vie.
 

Fomalhaut

macrumors 68000
Original poster
Oct 6, 2020
1,901
1,595
I don't feel the same.



Ask yourself how much your life will change if you upgrade to the 2021 model. My life wouldn't change much. I value my 2019 MBP so much more because of all the pictures and videos of family and friends that are on it. Therefore, in my opinion, it holds more value than any other Intel Mac or Apple Silicon Mac.
I like your recommendation. I need to take a coldly logical view of my needs., and not be swayed by the hype generated by new (and admittedly impressive) products.

The benefits (for me) of the new machines that I see so far:

1) More portable - I would go for the 14", so smaller and lighter than my current 16" (I find the latter just a bit too big and heavy for commuting and traveling, which are slowly resuming)

2) Better battery life - let's see the real world battery life tests first though! If I can get 10 hours of heavy web-usage, programming tools, YouTube and a couple of hours of voice/video conferences, then I would be happy.

3) Less heat and fan noise. The MBP16 is always "warm" and often "very warm" - it's mildy uncomfortable to type on during the summer months without air-con. Fan-noise is distracting, and an issue for audio recording

4) Generally faster user experience - I have an M1 Mini that is a joy to use. The MBP16 feels a bit sluggish in comparison.

5) Better video editing performance. My MBP16 struggles a little bit with some editing jobs.

I realize that most of the above (bar heavy video editing) could be done with an M1 Mac, and wouldn't need the Pro/Max, but the 16GB RAM limit is not ideal for me, and I have pushed my M1 Mini to the point where it slows down unacceptably, hence the desire but a bit more performance.

Your last sentence seemed odd to me. I don't think of the computer as the repository of important data - just the compute platform for working with it. Computers will come and go but the data remains constant on various layers of storage and backup. I do hope that your family photos & videos are not kept solely on your laptop!
 

ultrakyo

macrumors regular
Apr 12, 2015
128
68
It always feel tempting to get the latest and greatest but if the intel MBP16 is still a beast except for heat discomfort and battery life compared to M chips.

I still lean on keeping my intel MBP 16 as I do still need to virtualize x86 windows for VS development and not many apps has fully transition to native apps anyways.

So unless you desperately benefit from the new feature such as editing multi channel pro res I suggest it will be worthwhile to wait for couple more iteration where the whole new ecosystem mature and settled.
 

DesertNomad

macrumors 6502a
Jun 25, 2008
591
1,134
Nevada
I have a 2019 16" (i9, 2.4GHz, 64GB, 4TB, 560M) hooked to an XDR Display and a 27" Thunderbolt Display.. I plan to keep it until late 2023 at least. Admittedly, the 5600M is better by a wide margin than the 5500M as far as heat/fans, but I would be keeping it. It does everything I bought it to do and a jump to M2/M3 a couple years from now will be more significant than a jump now.
 
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Adarna

Suspended
Jan 1, 2015
685
429
I, like many others, bought a 2019 MBP16 based on many positive reviews and the claim that it "fixed all the thermal throttling issues and had killer dGPUs". Possibly unwisely, I upgraded it to what I thought was a good spec for 4-5 years' use - 32GB RAM, 1TB SSD, 5500M 8GB dGPU.

Then the M1 came along and upset the apple cart....

For my usage, the M1 Macs were clearly better in nearly every way at a much lower cost, with the exception of the 16GB RAM limit being less than desired.

My MBP16 is still a good computer, but in the new Apple Silicon world, it no longer represents good value.

I'm considering selling it and getting one of the new models, but a little voice is telling me not to jump too soon in case there are other significant changes around the corner (or as yet unknown issues with the recently-released models).

That said, I doubt that anything as revolutionary as the shift from Intel to Apple Silicon will occur for many generations, if ever, so my concerns are probably unwarranted.

I could stick to my original 4-5 plan for the Intel MBP16 and replace it with whatever Apple releases in 2023/24. I would just have to accept that I "got on the train at the wrong station" and live with my sub-optimal choice for the next couple of years.

Or I could take the financial hit of selling the MBP16 early for whatever I can get (probably less than it would have been, had Apple Silicon not arrived) and shell out again for a new model.

In your opinion, what is the optimal time to replace an Intel MBP with Apple Silicon? (and many will say "last week", before the new ones were announced :) )
My mistake was to buy a computer after 2015.

I should have kept to my
  • 2011 MBP 13"
  • 2012 iMac 27"
  • 2014 iMac 21.5"
  • 2015 Macbook
Then just upgrade to
  • 2020 Macbook Air M1
  • 2021 iMac 24" M1
  • 2021 Macbook Pro 16" M1 Pro
  • 2022 iMac 27" or larger display M1 Pro/Max
Avoided
  • 2017 Dell Inspiron 15 7567 Gaming
  • 2019 Macbook Air
  • 2019 Macbook Pro 16"
 

Grohowiak

macrumors 6502a
Nov 14, 2012
768
793
I lit my i7 5300 on fire (usual xcode stuff) and laughed in evil voice as I watched it burn. God I hated that thing.
M1 mini made my life happier but sometimes things get laggy when using 38" screen.
I ordered the base 14" to see if it improves in that aspect. Everything else works ok.
 
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