apple "could run out of steam"

Discussion in 'General Mac Discussion' started by funkywhat2, Nov 19, 2003.

  1. funkywhat2 macrumors 6502a


    Jul 14, 2002
    oh jeez. lets hope things like this don't happen soon.

    "Apple Computer Could Run Out Of Steam

    NEW YORK - Banc of America Securities said Apple Computer (nasdaq: AAPL - news - people ) "runs the risk of generating significant refresh sales to its installed base for the next couple of quarters, and then running out of steam once sales to the installed base are satisfied." The research firm said, "We don't think there is any more creative company in the world than Apple." It also added that Apple's fundamentals are "positive." But Banc of America initiated coverage of Apple at "neutral," saying it was concerned that G5 refresh sales will slow, iTunes won't contribute to the bottom line and iPod is not "the only game in town anymore." Banc of America said Apple is fairly valued at $21. Shares are down 3 cents to $20.38. "
  2. Mr. Anderson Moderator emeritus

    Mr. Anderson

    Nov 1, 2001
    that's all crap since anything can happen in a year and a half. Besides, by then the G6 will be on its way or at least poised to debut and we'll have the whole thing all over again.....

    And as long as there are PC users out there, there will always be switchers....;)

  3. 7on macrumors 601


    Nov 9, 2003
    Dress Rosa
    I don't know about a G6, I think Apple will use the G5 name till something big, maybe till Longhorn. It's only a name, the G5 could go all the way to 5Ghz if Apple wanted to carry it that far.
  4. Mr. Anderson Moderator emeritus

    Mr. Anderson

    Nov 1, 2001
    If they go with a Power5 derivative - 980, instead of a 970 upgrade there's absolutely no reason not to make a jump to a different name.

    Its good marketing - that means anyone who has an 'old' G5 gets to thinking he needs to upgrade to a will work nicely. :D

  5. jxyama macrumors 68040


    Apr 3, 2003
    well, since i'm no financial analyst, i will give this guy a benefit of the doubt. however, his analysis pretty much applies to most of the computer manufacturers. you can say that intel will have same problems with centrino once all the users make the shift. the big difference is that the installed base is a bit bigger for intel, but still.

    similarly, if iPod saturates, then the same for other mp3 manufacturers. i still haven't seen any convincing indication that dell, samsung, etc. has come up with anything to replace the iPod. and i don't see one coming because apple (wisely) got a design patent on the wheel navigation and ithere's no better way to navigate massive number of songs. (old saying: what's the use of having 10,000 songs in your palm if you can't readily access them?)

    this is probably an indication apple is making headlines and going somewhere because the "warning" is very generic and wouldn't be issued to just any company... and a little "warning" to greedy investors that apple will not continue to sell iPods like hotcakes like they will this holiday season.
  6. agreenster macrumors 68000


    Dec 6, 2001
    Walt Disney Animation Studios
    If I had a nickel for every time I heard a gloom and doom story about Apple, I'd be rich enough to buy Microsoft. These have been around for YEARS and YEARS (like, since, well, the company began) and Apple ALWAYS manages to figure it out.

  7. Viv macrumors regular

    Sep 11, 2003
    Normandy, France
    Under the same circumstances i wonder how Ford managed to survive at the end of the model T production run?

    Were do these people come from? and how the hell do they keep their jobs?

  8. patrick0brien macrumors 68040


    Oct 24, 2002
    The West Loop
    The analist is absolutely correct

    ... if Apple ceased R&D and stops introducing new products.

    Even during their worst years, Apple still innovated.
  9. cb911 macrumors 601


    Mar 12, 2002
    BrisVegas, Australia
    i don't get what there is to worry about? if there's still PC users out there, there is always the potential that they will switch.

    and with the current Mac users.... they'll always want the latest. they'll keep buying new hardware as it's released.
  10. electric macrumors regular

    Oct 14, 2002
    San Francisco, CA
    Oh no! I better sell all my Mac computers and buy dells.

    If I had a penny for every brain cell inside those Apple doom and gloomers brains, I would be broke.
  11. mj_1903 macrumors 6502a


    Feb 3, 2003
    Sydney, Australia
    Personally I think the analyst is correct to a point, except he neglects two things, market growth and Apple itself.

    Apple effectively created the digital music market and its size right now is bound to increase over the next year and a half. Even if Apple slips to 40% of the market, thats still 40% of a rather larger market.

    With the iPod, Apple effectively made the market a mass consumer market. Sales of the iPod continue to grow and the markets total reach is probably no where near sales right now. Again, if Apple slips from 60% to 40%, they probably will have still grown revenue's.

    Finally, the PowerMac G5 and its successors have created a new market for themselves while Apple uses Mac OS X to create new markets for Apple software. The VT supercomputer show's the abilities of the G5 to create new markets out of nothing. Mac OS X has brought in thousands of Unix/Linux switches and slightly less Windows switchers increasing that base that was already there. The G5 will incite old users to upgrade, but it will also give those Mac OS X switchers more of a reason to switch and themselves upgrade over time.

    Finally, who knows what Apple will release between now and next year. If sales are any indication, Apple are not about to stop growing.
  12. yamabushi macrumors 65816


    Oct 6, 2003
    The analyst seems to be warning that Apple needs more switchers for strong long term growth. I agree.
  13. alset macrumors 65816


    Nov 9, 2002
    East Bay, CA
    MR user timbloom had a great idea, the other day. Credit for this one goes to him. Apple should advertise the user experience of OS X to potential switchers. PC users are not likely impressed by the speed of the G5 if they have no awareness of Panther and it's incredible usability. Plug Unix under the hood a lot, too, and you continue to draw Linux users. It seems Apple only markets OS X to Mac users. It's half the package!

  14. Westside guy macrumors 603

    Westside guy

    Oct 15, 2003
    The soggy side of the Pacific NW
    I think all of this is possible (look, ma, I'm straddling the fence). It seems to me Apple dug itself into a pretty big hole a few years back. I know there are a few diehards that still swear by OS 8 & 9, but frankly to most of us who were outsiders the OS basically rated as "maximum suckage".

    Jobs has done a heck of a job turning the company on its ear and whipping the faithful back into a fervor, and I know a lot of non-Mac people (heck I was one until a month or two ago) are starting to think about them as a viable alternative to Wintel thanks to OS X/BSD - especially tech-heads like me who've had a love/hate relationship with x86 Linux on the desktop.

    If the techies continue to move toward OS X, all their friends and acquaintances will slowly follow and eventually you'll see real inroads into the current hegemony. But if Apple makes big missteps before that things could really turn south for them.
  15. Awimoway macrumors 65816


    Sep 13, 2002
    So let me get this straight...

    There are going to be a lot of "refresh sales" in the short term and then Apple will run out of steam. Does that mean that Apple's customers only buy in waves? If they are going into a "refresh sale" wave, does that mean they just came out of a sales slump?

    I ask because this does make a tiny shred of sense. The whole tech sector has been in a slump. Apple's line was held back by the lagging G4. Now, with the G5, sales are up.

    But here's the point. If Apple was just in a sales slump and they are still doing fine, why in hell will the next slump be the death of the company? Apple weathered this slump just fine, didn't it?

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