Apple Could Ship 22.5 Million IPods In Fiscal 2006

Discussion in ' News Discussion' started by MacBytes, Jan 11, 2005.

  1. MacBytes macrumors bot

    Jul 5, 2003
  2. outerspaceapple macrumors regular


    May 23, 2004
    Minnetonka, MN USA
  3. hcuar macrumors 65816


    Jul 23, 2004
    Woah! Although it wouldn't surprise me... No one has played with my iPod and disliked it.

    edit: I wonder if that includes the iPod shuffle.
  4. MCCFR macrumors regular

    Nov 6, 2003
    Guildford, Surrey, UK
    Meanwhile, back in consultancy school…

    To paraphrase Basil Fawlty, "Name: Prudential Equity Group. Specialist subject: stating the bleeding obvious".

    Fiscal 2005 is already 25% done, and we believe we know that Apple has already shipped 4.5m iPods.

    This means two things…

    1) They only need to ship another 10.5 million iPods in 9 months for PEG's "prediction" to come true.

    2) Apple "underpromised" when it said that it was producing 1 million iPods a month from October 2004 onwards! This is obvious, because we know they left fiscal 2004 with a backlog in orders (so there couldn't have been any lying around making the warehouse look untidy), so the 1 million must have been a minimum commitment, not a maximum output.

    The only way that Apple will miss the 15 million target here is if they shift back to producing only 1 million units/month, and I think we can be pretty sure that isn't going to happen given that HD iPods are still occassionally thin on the ground here in Europe, and HP probably has markets it could usefully exploit where Apple has no realistic presence.

    My guess is that Apple will continue to shift HD-based players at very high volumes. 4 million for the current quarter, followed by 4.5 million (Q3) and 5.0 million (Q4) making a total of 18.0 million for fiscal 2005.

    Calendar 2005 will be even more spectacular, with Apple closing the year with a 10.5 million unit final quarter bringing the calendar year to nearly 24 million units shipped.

    And this doesn't even include iPod shuffle which is going to ship in high seven-figure numbers (around 8 million) for the year as people realise that your paying USB thumbdrive money for a unit that is both thumbdrive and music player.

    So, the total iPod figure for fiscal 2005 is more likely to be 22 million units than 15 - but what's a 50% variance between friends.
  5. Sir_Giggles macrumors 6502a


    Dec 18, 2003
    That's if you take into account 500% percent growth year over year. Which would get you the magic 22million number. But I think the iPod shuffle intro will raise that to nearly 45 million by end of 2005.
  6. MCCFR macrumors regular

    Nov 6, 2003
    Guildford, Surrey, UK
    Maybe, maybe not - either way, the Prudential numbers are toast.

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