Apple Is Rotten


Sir_Giggles

macrumors 6502a
Dec 18, 2003
507
0
Buy low, sell high. That's my motto and that's probably the reason I'm a millionaire. Apple's stock is riding high, so that means sell, sell, sell.
 

emw

macrumors G4
Aug 2, 2004
11,177
0
Although I question some of his statements, in general I would agree with his assessment of Apple's stock valuation.
 

Savage Henry

macrumors 65816
emw said:
Although I question some of his statements, in general I would agree with his assessment of Apple's stock valuation.
Exactly. When most of the industry is performing at a reasonably flat level and Apple is soaring, you'll need more than the buzz of the iPod+iTunes to maintain bottom line wealth in the company.

Sure it's over priced, but since they are still the industry front-runners, it's not by much.
 

Santaduck

macrumors 6502a
Oct 21, 2003
627
0
Honolulu
once i got beyond the trollish title, I found a very interesting analysis of Apple's current stock valuation. A good read.
 

iKenny

macrumors member
Jan 31, 2004
48
1
Paris, France
good except

I thought it was good except for the part when he declares that Macs have gotten no better in the last 10 years. I find that statement appalling, considering that by most accounts Windows XP performs worse than Windows NT and Mac OS X can do so much more than OS 9.
 

pgwalsh

macrumors 68000
Jun 21, 2002
1,639
218
New Zealand
Well besides the tone, it was an interesting read. He makes some valid points with regards to locking in hardware and software. The stock valuation is peaking out, but it'll settle. His issue with the printers not working is rather interesting. I've never run into the problem.
 

wrldwzrd89

macrumors G5
Jun 6, 2003
12,106
73
Solon, OH
I agree with the general thread of the article about Apple's stock price being too high. It WILL fall - the question is how much. $35/share? $30? $20? or (god-forbid) $10???
 

hulugu

macrumors 68000
Aug 13, 2003
1,819
10,192
quae tangit perit Trump
emw said:
Although I question some of his statements, in general I would agree with his assessment of Apple's stock valuation.
Did you read the counter argument?

http://www.fool.com/news/commentary/2004/commentary04100702.htm


Both have very good points, but I think the first article's arguments are mostly structured as attacks on Apple fans and Apple stock-buyers. Not really a good argument about the Moonies vs. the snake-charmers. Although it did make me laugh.
 

solvs

macrumors 603
Jun 25, 2002
5,693
1
LaLaLand, CA
I think just by reading this thread it disprove the whole zealot thing. He makes a good point about the stock being high, but I don't think it will crash unless something catastophic happens. Even with delays, it's actually making the stock worth more because of the high demand comparatively. He would make a better point if he wasn't so obviously trolling. Reeks of wanting hits, and we are totally falling for it.

I'll bet his next article is about all the hate-mail he gets from the real zealots, glossing over the more level-headed people with good points, and the fact that he is baiting us anyway.
 

e-coli

macrumors 68000
Jul 27, 2002
1,833
726
Ouch.

"Senator, the first time I met you is when you walked on the stage this evening."

The Fool is right, though. Apple's stock price is WILDLY out of control. But I think they've overlooked the potential of the XServe in their analysis. But it's still a fairly solid and sincere breakdown.

:(
 

Timelessblur

macrumors 65816
Jun 26, 2004
1,086
0
Well as a general rule when one compainy stock is massicly out passing the rest of the industy it general should raise a red flag. You have to question how much of that stock price is built up around the hype. (Ipod new iMacs ect) There is a lot of hype going on about apple right now and it has to die down some. When you are around a hi general means it is a very poor time to buy and it should be droping. I would say I expect it to have a minor crash and leval off closer to how the rest of the technologic industy is doing. Apple has a lot of red flags about it stock prices right now.
 

hob

macrumors 68020
Oct 4, 2003
2,023
0
London, UK
For an article that is meant to be about finance, the first seems to be a well-structured attack against mac users, and the second a response to that attack by a mac user! The first one does touch on some important financial stuff, but the second one never responds to these points.

I've only been using a mac for 18 months, and I do prefer it over windows - but Apple's financial guff seems to worry me. I'd tend to agree with what the first article was saying, and I think Jobs should be careful! Anderson probably left at the right time...

Hob

(feel free to hurt me)
 

hulugu

macrumors 68000
Aug 13, 2003
1,819
10,192
quae tangit perit Trump
Timelessblur said:
Well as a general rule when one compainy stock is massicly out passing the rest of the industy it general should raise a red flag. You have to question how much of that stock price is built up around the hype. (Ipod new iMacs ect) There is a lot of hype going on about apple right now and it has to die down some. When you are around a hi general means it is a very poor time to buy and it should be droping. I would say I expect it to have a minor crash and leval off closer to how the rest of the technologic industy is doing. Apple has a lot of red flags about it stock prices right now.
I'd tend to agree although I'm betting that Apple will hit a target price of 44.00 before falling. Furthermore, I think it will level off around a respectable 30 - 36, which is far more than what it was trading at earlier this year when good analysts, including those at the Fool—who are a great group of analysts, this jerk notwithstanding—were saying the company was undervalued.
Apple has, I think, great potential to sell new computers, new Xserves, iPods, and I think the iTMS is only at the very beginning of its potential. If security-problems continue to plague MS at the current rate, Apple and Linux distros with have to gain ground. Even AT&T is considering both OSX and Linux.
 

requies

macrumors member
Mar 30, 2003
82
1
axe. to. grind.

yes, apple's stock is high. that means it's not a good time to buy in. is it drastically overvalued? i don't think so. and my bias is no worse than his. he's got an obvious axe to grind. nothing to see here.
 

macridah

macrumors 6502a
Feb 18, 2004
868
0
Nor-Cal
That writer has must have some hatred toward apple: stinky, rotten ...etc. An opinion about something is one thing, but he is attacking apple. At any rate, I totally disagree with that fool. I've been an apple user for years, and this is the only time I feel apple has good momentum that will last a long long long time.

Apple products are not fads. Everyone but everyone either uses a computer or listens to music or both. Now I see apple user growing bigger, and there is no limit. I liked OS 9, but I didn't think it would catch on.

I have a preview of OS 10.4 and that will be the OS that will take the world be storm. Let's see if this guy is right. Steve asked the writer that thought the iPod mini will fail to write an apology if he was wrong--that writer should do the same.
 

nagromme

macrumors G5
May 2, 2002
12,551
1,186
e-coli said:
Ouch.

"Senator, the first time I met you is when you walked on the stage this evening."
And of course, as Edwards pointed out the next day, they had met several times before and spoken at length. Most recently, one day before the debate!

That quote seemed O/T until I caught the theme of "distorting facts" ;)

And let us not forget the HUGE benefits of Apple "locking" hardware and software together into an integrated and elegant system. Benefits for users, and for Apple, who then has a much more controlled environment for rapid innovation--something MS can't have.
 

Sun Baked

macrumors G5
May 19, 2002
14,874
57
Taking financial advice from somebody who thinks of themselves as a 'motley fool' is probably as smart as going in for a root canal at Max Payne's Dental Office.
 

Mr. Anderson

Moderator emeritus
Nov 1, 2001
22,407
0
VA
pourhadi said:
That article is fantastic - the Fool vs. Fool debate is quite entertaining....

OK, take less of the valium, because that's just whacked. Windows better at color management? Windows being better at plug and play? In other news, black is white, the world is flat, and life began on in the asteroid belt.
ha! :D

Its sad when someone is biased for emotional reasons.....especially when they publish.

Ah well.....at least I don't live in his world.

D :D
 

nagromme

macrumors G5
May 2, 2002
12,551
1,186
Actually, the bias in this case is probably just to generate page-hits and ad revenue. Showing two extreme views can be useful--but going beyond reason into insults loses them all credibility.
 

macidiot

macrumors 6502a
Aug 13, 2002
815
0
the writer is purposely trolling macusers. Probably because of all the hate mail he has gotten for his past articles. He clearly has an axe to grind. What a troll.

Some of his arguments are valid. But the way he presents them is insulting. Also, he forgets the impact of the HP ipods and the fact that Apple has about $14 cash per share. If Apple went out of business tomorrow, its stock would still be worth $14-25 just based on cash and brand value. He also avoids the fact that the large percentage rise this year is partly due to the stock being undervalued to begin with.

BTW, my opinion is that Apple stock is ahead of itself a bit. However, if Apple has a blowout quarter(Oct.-Dec.) the stock will have upside. Personally, I see Apple moving about 2.5 million ipods this quarter. If thats the case, and assuming the new iMac halts the sales decline in desktops, Apple could triple its earnings sequentially.

Speaking of the HP deal, does anyone have any idea what the margins for Apple are?? Considering they are basically the same price, is Apple lowering margins? Or are they selling them to HP at the same price they charge resellers(like BestBuy)? Kind of important to know if they are only making say, half as much(splitting the margin w/HP) on a HP ipod...
 

billyboy

macrumors 65816
Mar 15, 2003
1,165
0
In my head
I wrote the aforementined Seth, who isnt a troll, just a smart stock analyst with a Mac and an opinion guaranteed to rile Mac heads, and told him all my reasons for hanging onto AAPL. But you know what, I woke up this morning and sold all my Apple shares. His long term prognosis that Apple is rotten frankly does not stand up to scrutiny - I have no doubt that within a year Apple will grow into their current $40-ish valuation and then head off way higher, especially as XServes turn into the next iPod for business. But for now, I think old Seth is spot on and although I dont have the millions of Sir Biggles, I am quite happy to take my 110% gains and wait for the dust to settle lower.

Meanwhile, time to look at a nice desktop Mac to reinvest in Apple in a different way.