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Discussion in 'Hardware Rumors' started by pimentoLoaf, Oct 27, 2002.
What can we expect two-and-a-half years from now?
worst case scenario:
doubling of speeds and still stuck on G5, or next processor past the current G4
best case scenario:
best case scenario - more than triple the speeds and be on G6 or whatever the processor that will be two generations past the G4
two and a half years ago, the ibook was at 366 mhz and now it's at 700 mhz
the imac was a crt machine with a G3 and now there's a flat panel lcd and a G4 processor
things have moved forward, but not as fast as the PC world where speeds went from 600 mhz laptops to 2+ ghz laptops in the same price range and there are brand name PC desktops well past 1 ghz that sell for under $500
Sorry, but I agree with your assessment!
G6? No way. G5? Probably... But I am expecting Apple to use 2 different kinds of processors... G5s and something else.
Apple will also have atleast one new product (in addition to xraid)
There will probably be a revised form-factor of the lcd displays; remember the earliest 15" bondi and "ice" colored LCD's that sat on a post but were removable and prop-able like photographs? Not saying they'll return to that - they won't - but I imagine they'll want to freshen up the line, probably concurrently with or shortly after the intro of the next generation CPU.
I don't think they'll come out with a branded phone. They're too isync'd with Sony/Ericsson, and phones are waaaaayy outside of Apple's core competency as a computer and software company. I have a t68i, and it sure feels like an "iphone" to me (maybe that's what the "i" is for on the end...). Likewise a palm-type device, unless they equip the next gen iPod with a somewhat larger screen and a pen for data entry.
Those are only my predictions, though; to be frank, I don't really care. I just hope that it's not so far beyond the 1gig powerbook I'm looking forward to buying that I will need to upgrade again so soon!
ok apple needs to get off its but with this digital hub thing if its going to succeed, they need to have it up and running with major advertisements before the windows XP media center edition is off and running on media center peecees, again microsoft stealing the digital hub idea, if apple has the idea patented or copyrighted i say they sue the **** out of microslop!!
Apple will close the gap and have CPU's that are only 1/2 as slow as their PC counterparts.
two and a half years from now, the speed gap won't be a top issue
but if the pc world still sees the newest video cards and most software titles first, that will be a continuing sore issue...especially with gamers and mostly younger, cutting edge users who like those factors and are ready at the computer store's door with mommy's and daddy's money
when i worked at office depot, the bulk of the software sales were games and kids bought most of those...and sometimes stole the disk(s) from the box and somehow made it look like nobody broke the seal
winona could have used some tips from these guys
All monitors widescreen and HDTV 1080i resolution including iMac. All include HDTV reciever so that blue-tooth/airport antenna doubles as a tv antenna.
ADC2 to support higher resolutions and refresh rates. Also builtinto ADC2 is usb so that one cable goes from computer to monitor, then keyboard connects to monitor as do usb speakers. And an open port for a digital camera, maybe even bundled firewire2 so you don't have to connect your camcorder to the back of your PowerMac.
All iMacs, iBooks, Powermacs and Apple monitors include built-in camera for videoconferencing. Camera built into monitors communicates with PowerMac through new ADC2 (see above). Videoconferencing version of iChat.
iPod 40GB and smaller dimensions. Firewire2 and Rendezvous allow you to plug iPod into Firewire TV or Projector and play movies off iPod, or use iPod to do PowerPoint type presentations.
iPad mini-tablet. Does for the eBook market what iPod did for MP3. Easy to use. Easy to manage your eBooks through iBookshelf(or iLibrary) application. Also Sherlock becomes a clipping service to download targetted news into iPad. Handwriting recognition and the ability to do some basic text manipulation, but not a full-featured Tablet. Smaller than a full-featured tablet, lighter, and much less expensive.
All Apple keyboards have a small handwritting recognition pad and the ability to sign emails by hand is built into mail application. This same pad has enough resolution to do fingerprint recognition which Apple builds into the OS to attract corporate clients worried about data security.
Airport2, Firewire2, Bluetooth - enough said, enough said, enough said
extensive .Mac integration as well as a .Mac Partner Program where third-party developers can add web functionality through .Mac for users who have both their software and .Mac (think Adobe GoLive users being able to work on their .Mac website with GoLive without having to make the page on the harddrive then FTP it. - I'm not sure if that's how it works currently, but you get the picture: third party .Mac services)
Databasing file system based on MySQL. Phenominal increase in speed with iPhoto, iTunes.
Professional Apps (FCP, Shake, etc...) are more tightly integrated together. And some sort of Professional Media .Mac area for stock pictures,stock footage, stock audio, etc. all accessible without leaving the app.
Apple branded and tweaked version of OpenOffice standard with all Macs.
By 2005 Apple has moved most of their developers to Cocoa with two technologies -
Cocoa Module Integrator: an application that allows cocoa modules to work with and add functionality to existing carbon programs. This allows big developers to start dipping into cocoa without loosing their investment in existing carbon code.
Carbon to Cocoa Translator: an application that makes a rough cocoa translation of existing carbon source code. The resulting code still needs modification to make it efficient, but this speeds up the process of carbon to cocoa drastically.
Once all developers are on cocoa (2008) and the x86 is starting to seriously transition to IA-64 (2008) Apple ports OSX to Itanium and all developers have a simple recompile.
That sounds interesting. As a developer, I can tell you that would be useful. But...
That's not realistic. First, developers will never all transition to Cocoa. PhotoShop, Quark, Fireworks, Dreamweaver, and 90% of applications need to be cross-platform. There is no good Objective C compiler for Win32, meaning developers for cross-platform applications will never write in Cocoa because it would require them to have two separate versions of their program, or constantly be converting it. If Apple made Project Builder cross platform for Win32, then we'd see some real action in Cocoa (since it is easier than Carbon or other C compilers).
Second, Carbon is no longer insuperior to Cocoa. The only real insuperiority in OS X was the lack of toolbars, drawers, and other specific features. The fact that Carbon apps look crappy is the fault of the developer. And now in 10.2, Carbon apps have access to Services, toolbars, sheets, drawers, etc. It's just a matter of slogging through all the Carbon legacy code and modifying it to look better, work better, etc. Once Carbon developers rewrite the code for their interfaces, you'll barely be able to tell the difference, assuming they follow the guidelines.
Just my 2 cents as well. Most of your other predictions were good.
Well, I do write cross-platform applications. And I use Cocoa. No, Obj C doesn't go "deep" into the core of the application, but Obj C does a fantastic job on the UI. That is where Cocoa lies.
Any application which integrates UI code deep into its code base, be that UI code Carbon or Cocoa or Win32, will not be cross platform without great and expensive effort. I strongly doubt that Photoshop has Carbon any more than skin deep. Transitioning that layer to Cocoa would make Photoshop no less cross-platform than it already is!
Obj C modules link seamlessly to C/C++ modules. Obj C++ (new in Jaguar) allows you to put C++ right into your Obj C code modules, making integration even easier (C++ apps used to have to expose a C API to the UI layer ... now the UI layer can talk C++ instead ...)
Well, ProjectBuilderWO, the WebObjects development environment (and an extension on the normal Project Builder) runs on Windows as well as OS X. I believe it also includes an Obj C compiler. The problem is that Cocoa itself is not ported to Win32 as far as I know (and the performance hit of using such a translation layer would likely be too great to seriously consider it anyways).
Well, that's assuming that said developers are getting something out of their Carbon code. When was the last Carbon update? I don't remember seeing one recently. If you don't need OS 9 backwards compatibility, Cocoa is a MUCH better API than the Carbon kludge!
The speed issue will ALWAYS be an issue. If you look at the trend, apple keeps falling behind more and more each quarter. Even with IBM's new cpu, macs will still be slower, and it will only close the gap so far. Then, the gap will widen even more than it did in the past. Just basing this on trend analysis.
but will it be a top five issue, a top ten issue, or just some issue way down on the list?
at 100 ghz, will we care?
I think the issue of processor clock speed is moot. And if it ain't dead yet, it will be after the PowerPC970 becomes available. Let Intel continue to be the leader in that meaningless race. Who cares? The most powerful processors on the planet (Power4, Itanium) have lower clock speeds than a Pentium 4.
In two and a half years, I see Apple using processors built on the 9nm process that are faster and use less power, and improved battery technology that will allow laptops to run for eight hours doing the most power-consuming tasks. I see gpus becoming so powerful that 3-D desktops will be standard, even on laptops.
I see OSX, or whatever Apple will call its operating system in the future, to continue to make leaps and bounds ahead of Microsoft OS with more and more people switching to Macs and Linux.
I think wireless connectivity will become faster and more reliable and standard on every Mac, including peripherals.
And desktops, at least for the home, will become much smaller, similar to the Shuttle SS51G mini computer.
I think that by that time, we will be in the same rat race with IBM and Mot. IBM's 970 chip for high end and the new Mot. chip for iMacs, and iBooks. This may have been said already, so I apologize now to avoid a massive flaming. Its already starting to feel that way. Apple to me seems like they dont want to give up on Mot. for some odd reason. I think they have good reason to stick around a little while to see what mot. cooks up in their R&D labs later on, but on the other hand I would much rather see them go to the 970.
Mac OS 10.5.0 iTunes v5, iPhoto v4, iDvd Pro, iMovie Pro, QT v8 DiVX AVI Playback.
Powermac Dual 3.25 Ghz
iMac 2.35 Ghz
Powerbook Dual 2.66 Ghz with DDR and Superdrive
iBook 2.00 Ghz
100 Gb iPod MP3 and Mpeg Video playback via Mini AV
Firewire2, Airport Card standard across the line, Bluetooth
I also see Apple having a heavier presence in wireless technology, and by that time maybe we will have already seen Apple's GPU that they are supposedly working on. Perhaps too we may see apple deviate more into this digital life style thing with sony. Maybe some sort of apple branded game system (I know I know, Pippin was a failure da da da da and all that nice stuff) or set-top box. We will probably see Apple be more aggressive in the business side of their company, focusing resources on service providers for their hardware, and more innovation in the server market.
iPod turned into a usefull 'hub'.
- USB port
- ability to transfer pictures from digital cameras to iPod (all cameras like in OS X) --> just think ... ENOUGH MEMORY for vacation pictures!!
- PDA functionality (based on Palm OS)
- color display
- built in hand writing recognition
- hand writing ghost like Sony does
- built in keyboard like Sony does
- compact navigator / button arrangement like Palm Tungsten
- built in Bluetooth
- expandability port like Palm & Sony for scanners, etc.
- *** NO cell phone ***
- phone should be able to, via Bluetooth, talk to iPod to retrieve phone numbers, email content (bi-diretional), etc.
- ability to attach to any computer, via either the firewire or USB, and be treated as just another hard drive (at a plug & play level)
The worst part is the time is ripe for this. Palm is able to market, at a profit, for under $200 US, a color palm pilot carrying forward most of the addtional technology required. The USB port, little keyboard, Bluetooth, and other minor cosmetic changes can't cost a whole lot more. And Apple'd be able to jump in with a 'do everything' unit that'd NEVER need expansion memory, etc., for an EXTREMELY competitive price.
Come on Apple ... don't blow it AGAIN!
In 2005, Apple will merge with Sun...
... Scott McNealy and Steve Jobs will somehow get along; Sun will announce that Aqua will be the standard GUI for Solaris. Objective-C will be proclaimed the standard language.
In the PC world, some variant of Linux adopted by HP will be the primary OS on the IA-64; Windows will be too late, too expensive and too buggy. Windows will survive on consumer Hammer PCs, but decline in market share as consumers lose interest in home computing.
There will be conferences regarding common APIs for the HP and Sun/Apple platforms, but altho some consensus will be achieved, the devil will be in the details.
Well, you asked!
Huh? A USB port on an iPod?!? USB devices have enough trouble getting Windows and OS X drivers written for them; you expect device manufacturers to make an iPod driver too?!?!? Yes, there are common HID device interfaces like keyboards and mice and external HDs (digital cameras work because all modern cameras use this HID), but put a USB device in there and people will be wondering why their printer won't work off the iPod!
IMHO, USB is the WRONG choice for a "secondary hub" like the iPod would be. What is the right interface? Something like FireWire would make more sense, maybe. On the other hand, the whole "secondary hub" idea seems a bit off the point.
While I realize that ideally you would want to use the firewire interface rather than USB, the reality unfortunately is that most of the digital cameras are USB based. My point is to make it usable by the greatest number of people, not to have the greatest number of people re-purchase their digital cameras.
The whole intent here is to make the iPod as usefull to as many people as possible while minimizing their expense in adopting it. If a person has to spend too much then they won't buy.
And yes I realize that getting drivers written can be troublesome. But by the same token if Apple wants to sell these things in volume, they may have to commit to doing some of the driver work (at least up front) themselves.
And finally yes, I do realize that users will try to plug almost anything into any place that can be plugged. And, like on most well behaved devices, a message to the effect that a driver is not available is sufficient.
Re: whoa nellie
in the hub, right now, there is a central component like a PC or imac
in the future, there may be a center, but it won't be a big bulky desktop or even laptop
the house or apartment/room with be the center and everything will plug into it...the cpu with either be housed in the walls, small closet, or remote via an ISP
but that may not come as soon as 2005, but one day, the computer will disappear from our naked eyes because it will be so seamlessly integrated
the blueberry imac, with it's pleasing design and lack of ugly beige was a step in integrating a cpu into a living space
i have seen nice flat profile tables/desks with PCs integrated into them in such a way that when one walks into the room, there is no evidence that there is a computer there
there are so many otherwise perfect rooms ruined by an ugly computer with wires coming out every which way and big, bulky cpus and terribly designed peripherals
wow.... there's some wild stuff on this thread....
Okay, I'll take a stab at it:
Q1 2005: iMac and iBook become the last machines to drop Moto processors for IBM PPC97x based chips. Apple announces that Sony will begin selling OS X.2 for x86-bundled Hammer-based machines.
Q2 2005: All apple products gain 802.11g. Apple announces iHub, an app that implements the next step in Rendezvous in which you iPod can function as not only a PDA and repository but a Universal remote. iHub allows for synching all USB/Ethernet/Coaxial/Firewire capable machines into a contiguous system controllable from anywhere.
Q3 2005: OS X.3 released with mind boggling new interoperability with every kind of data transfer possible that involves a microchip. Integral clustering support is added to OS X server and very quietly to the Darwin core. A freeware haxie client is available 4 hours later on Versiontracker for the consumer OS.
Q4 2005: The first quad-processor 97x powermacs and xServes are introduced equipped with a custom 256MB DDR Dual GPU graphics card and industry-first non-volatile RAM architecture running on a 450 DDR FSB.
Q1 2006: Apple ceases supplying Hard drives in the xServes due to the availability of sickeningly cheap non-volatile RAM. RAM and Volume size become one and the same for xServe eliminating the last speed bottleneck and reducing heat output tremendously.
Q2 2006: Microsoft begins feeling the heat from xJaguar and moves even more resources away from Windows and into Software and Consumer Electronics.
Apple uses the Sony/IBM/Toshiba "Cell" Processor as the GPU in all consumer Macs and strikes a deal with Sony so the Mac can natively play all PlayStation 3 games. Sony agrees to this because the production of the system is actually a lost leader for them (they make their money off game licensing) so having more systems capable of playing PS3 games is in their best interest. This makes the Mac a premier gaming platform and attracts many developers.
Many people who don't own HDTV's by then, buy the Mac to play HDTV capable PS3 games since the monitors in all Macs are 1080p compliant by then.
Voice Over IP built into the operating system and integrated with iChat. Your iMac is your phone.
Voice recognition built into operating system.
To start,let's drop all of this antiquated technology that we've been using since day one to make computers!
Let's start with some sort of quantum based processing power,such as a self contained miniature black hole for emulating time travel replacing the memory cache and system bus,so that everything the CPU has do do is already done by the time the instruction is sent.
The CPU itself of course would be built from atom thin quartz crystal wafers which would use resonatation and harmonic generation to process info.
Next,let's replace that clumsy slow hard disk with a 444.1 QPI 800 Gb ram disk.Then again,maybe all our personal data could just be stored in another one of those self contained mini black holes?Or perhaps even utilize living cell memory as a storage medium?Mos't likely though,the fourth dimension network disk will be popular.(see networking overview below)
The whole human interface of course would be based on the by then fully utilized science of "mind over matter",which is where even the smallest shift of electrons generated by thought have precise interaction with the computers sensors.
Also we have good old,you guessed it!,3.21 dimensional Holographic displays.
As well,by then we will have figured out how to fully use the fourth and fifth dimension for communications purposed,so regardless of location or "modem" speed,our computers will have full access to all information (data) in the universe at the thought of a button!Now that's surfin'!
Ok,maybe not three years.....
But seriously,if you look at our exponentialy accelerating rate of technology advances,in relation to the last 20-40 years,these concepts are fully a possibilty!