Are you worried about the economy?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Unspeaked, Sep 3, 2008.

  1. Unspeaked macrumors 68020

    Unspeaked

    Joined:
    Dec 29, 2003
    Location:
    West Coast
    #1
    Are you worried about the economy?

    Do you think it's healthy? Are you a little worried that your bills will increase slightly? Are you really worried about severe inflation? Do you think things are really bad, and your job and/or home is at risk?

    Also, have you started acting any differently in recent months - as far as spending and savings - as you had a year or two ago?

    This question is open to anyone, in any country. In fact, it will be interesting to see how different people in different places view their own countries economies.
     
  2. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

    Joined:
    May 18, 2008
    Location:
    Hartford, CT
    #2
    Going off to college (god willing i find the money for it) yes the economy's situation scares the hell out of me. Will i be able to pay off my debts after college? Will there be jobs even available (as a hopeful coder/software designer id say im in a better position than say, a factory worker, but i care about my fellow man so thats more of a general question). At what point will our national debt become a big player in our day to day lives?

    yes, im scared as hell, but hopefully we can find a way to better our position through a change in our politics. And by that i mean a real change. Yes Obama will help, but an overhaul of how washington continues to work is in order if this country is going to be truly great again.

    just my two sense tho, according to many here im just a hippy wackadoo :rolleyes:
     
  3. Queso macrumors G4

    Joined:
    Mar 4, 2006
    #3
    Not worried no. This downturn has been coming for years. Anyone with any sense has been preparing for it.

    And the good thing about economic cycles is that downturns don't last forever :)
     
  4. iShater macrumors 604

    iShater

    Joined:
    Aug 13, 2002
    Location:
    Chicagoland
    #4
    My current contract is up in November, so I am concerned of course about the job market. However, I am debt-free, and have a good savings cushion. Another big concern is inflation, the enemy of savers! :eek: :cool:
     
  5. redwarrior macrumors 603

    redwarrior

    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2008
    Location:
    in the Dawg house
    #5
    No, can't say that I'm worried at all, but then I'm not a worrier. I plan, invest, save, and live my life. My life and everyone's around me that I see is getting continually better. I don't let the media tell me I have to live in a recession. If I did, I would quit spending, quit hiring, hold on to what I have, and thereby do further damage to the economy. I refuse to be a part of the problem.:)
     
  6. leekohler macrumors G5

    leekohler

    Joined:
    Dec 22, 2004
    Location:
    Chicago, Illinois
    #6
    Scared s***less. I'm in the ad biz, so the state of the economy is extremely creepy for me. We need to start paying attention to ourselves here at home a lot more, and less about Iraq. I already moved to a cheaper apartment where I don't have to pay heat, but that just makes up for the raises my company refuses to give anyone because of the "economy", while they give everyone who makes more than $100,000 big fat ones. I know that because someone who recently quit posted the expenditure spreadsheet on a public server.

    I'm looking for a new job, and have been for quite some time. But the jobs just aren't out there.
     
  7. rasmasyean macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2008
    #7
    I think it ultimately depends on the stability of Iraq. Afghanistan is on it's way to becoming self-sufficient with just a few pockets of rebellion. Their army and government has been gaining a foothold and GDP is rising a lot. And they are a small fry anyway.

    However, if Iraq bursts into full scale civil war, or whatever, then I think the economy of the US is in question. And US won't leave and just let things be.

    What would happen is that a lot of the advanced defense research over the years will be trickled out of secrecy and embargo and appear in the industry. Stuff like nano-technology, robotics, advanced computerized networking of "stuff"...even biotech and whatever. If histeory is any indication, there is stuff out there that is not imaginable. This would give the US some intelectual capital to work with and create jobs and incomming money for the deficit, etc. Of course software will be even helped more in a high tech economy. Maybe manufacturing too because I don't think they will let everything be made in China like how they restrict advance semiconductors from Intel and such to be domestic for "security reasons".
     
  8. BoyBach macrumors 68040

    BoyBach

    Joined:
    Feb 24, 2006
    Location:
    UK
    #8
    This article nicely sums up how I feel about the soon to be upon us recession: Apocalypse, wow! I can’t wait for the economic meltdown.

     
  9. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #9
    The direct cost of the Iraq war is roughly $150 billion per year. That's over and above what the military would spend without it.

    The expected budget deficit for the current fiscal year is somewhere around $400 billion or more. We send some $60 billion per month overseas to pay for imports. Around $40 billion of that is for oil.

    The housing bust is nowehre near over, and the commercial-property crunch is just getting started. Even prime loans for residential housing are facing problems for delinquency or even foreclosure.

    Some $500 billion have been written off in the credit crunch; it is expected that another $500 billion or even more are at risk.

    "Bottom Line": A deflation of asset prices and a great reduction in available credit.

    The unemployment rate is slowly rising, and it would look even worse if all those who've given up were included in the official numbers.

    So, yeah, we're in deep doo-doo. A major problem is that in the past, non-mortgage debt was much lower, and savings reserves were much greater.

    Next problem, obviously, is inflation of consumer prices. Bread, milk, grains--these are well publicized. I saw, Monday, that my synthetic motor oil is up by some 40% in less than a year. Car batteries are up. Motel and restaurant prices are up--and by much more than the official government numbers.

    Summary: Stagflation.

    How long will it last? I've no idea. How bad will it get? Again, no idea. I do believe that we're just at the beginning.

    'Rat
     
  10. Aea macrumors 6502a

    Aea

    Joined:
    May 23, 2007
    Location:
    Denver, Colorado
    #10
    I'm not concerned at all, the current economic downtown can't last forever. It hasn't affected me or my family at all except for the occasional "Hey guess how much it just cost me to fill up" talks.

    Really hoping that another "fiscal" conservative doesn't get elected in November though, a powerful economy serves us all.
     
  11. Rodimus Prime macrumors G4

    Rodimus Prime

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2006
    #11
    I think we are in for some rough times. It is no where as bad as the media is making it seem. But yes rough times. It is part of the natural cycle.

    I do hope that this time around it gives people a wake up call and they learn they NEED to build a savings up. Saving rate should not be near zero or negative.

    I am still working on building my my saving and getting that nice healthy emergency funds built up but I have only been out of school for 7 months so I feel like I am doing pretty good for myself.

    Just to many people I read about and I know the numbers do not lie when people have such a poor savings rate. More often than not just having a good chunk of changed in the bank keeps one from falling flat on their face.


    As for the economy and me being worried. Not so much. I know I am fine with my job. I know things will get better in the next year or so as it is the natural cycle. We tend to have a down turn every 5-10 years. It was about time it finally bottom out. Things will turn around they always do.

    I do worry for my brother as he gets out of school in Dec and he does not have a high demand degree so it will be tighter for him. It might mean that I will be working with my parents to help support him and by that I mean he will live with me while my parents give me money to cover the cost. It more because they know it will make him strike out on his own faster as he would not be getting as much support as if he was at home. Plus he still would be safe.
     
  12. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #12
    Aea, there are two problems with your comment, "Really hoping that another "fiscal" conservative doesn't get elected in November though, a powerful economy serves us all."

    #1 is that we haven't had a fiscal conservative elected, other than maybe Ron Paul. There has been much talk-the-talk, but little walk-the-walk.

    #2 is that we no longer have a powerful economy. It's in serous decline.

    From this morning's Rude Awakening of Agora Publishing:

    "It does not take any prophecy or forecasting to see the second Industrial Revolution unfolding at light speed in places such as China and India. Fareed Zakaria, a Newsweek editor, calls it "the rise of the rest." He notes an extraordinary string of facts - some important, some silly, but all showing that America is no longer a lone heavyweight without challenges. Here are some of them:

    The world's tallest building is in Dubai
    India is building the world's biggest refinery
    The largest passenger airplane is in Europe
    The largest investment fund on the planet is in Abu Dhabi
    The biggest movie industry is Bollywood, not Hollywood
    The largest Ferris wheel is in Singapore, the biggest casino in Macao - which overtook Las Vegas in gambling revenues last year
    The biggest mall in America, once the biggest in the world, no longer cracks the top 10
    Only 2 out of top 10 richest people in the world are American."

    The money of Abu Dhabi means we're losing our economic clout as to worldwide influence. The reference to "biggest mall" means there is even more competition than in the past for world resources--which will continue the ongoing increase in consumer prices as demands continue to increase around the world.

    None of it means we're gonna crash, burn and die, but it all adds up to some serious hard times which are unavoidable--and it's to be hoped that some lessons will be learned.

    'Rat
     
  13. rasmasyean macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2008
    #13
    You know what I always thought was one of the root causes of this is?
    See, it’s mostly Allan Greenspan and his old mentality ways. Before this guy retires WAY PAST his days, this guy decides to collapse the booming high-tech economy. So instead of all these advance companies and concepts maintaining its course to revolutionizing the world, etc. they suddenly have to shut down and cut back on spending. Meanwhile, he has the bright idea of making “real-estate” sky rocket so people become “richer” by the rocks that they own. So what does this do? Foster spending mostly where??? Real-estate investments… So all the money basically goes into more and more rocks instead of into the companies that make something that drives real business (at least where some silicon rocks are ;) ). All the while the rest of the world seizes this opportunity to take over those business sectors in the high-tech arena leaving USA with what? A bunch of people with rocks that are dropping “like a rock” after they realize how worthless it actually is compared to what everyone else is doing.

    Why am I not video conferencing on a daily basis instead of picking up my phone? Why is Japan’s internet like 10 times that of mine even though I pay more than the average Japanese person to my ISP? Now that Asia, Europe, probably more had been handed what once was America’s technological strength by Greenspan, America doesn’t have much value anymore that can they call their own in the global pool. Perhaps our only hope is that the nano-tech sector can bring us back into the game soon, since we will obviously be behind everyone else in our “legacy” technology. And we even borrow money to buy goods from this sector from overseas! Greenspan will likely depart from this world before this happens and have to live out laughing that he had collapse the USA!:mad:
     
  14. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

    Joined:
    May 18, 2008
    Location:
    Hartford, CT
    #14
    thought this might tie in a little:

    apparantly Dell is now selling off any factory operations in the US in favor of outsourcing.

    This is great news though! That means Dell will be doing better, and therefore helping the economy and eventually us little guys right? :rolleyes:
     
  15. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #15
    ras, I'm in accord about Greenspan's flawed views about monetary policy, but several other factors enter in. The dot-com bubble came about from several causes. Fed rate was but a part. Tax structure, hype-psychology, other aspects as well. Always remember that investors look for best returns, and CNBC isn't the wisest group of advisors.

    The dot-com bubble popped, so to stave off any sort of serious recession, the Fed rate got lowered. That made it easy for people to buy more house than they could really afford, particularly with nonsense like ARMs and IO loans. And, of course, the speculators. The big problem has come from packaging all those bad loans and selling the paper as Grade AAA bonds. Once the foreclosures began, the house of cards began to tumble.

    Contemporaneously, China's & India's demands for commodities of all sorts raised those prices. Our energy bill, with the ethanol portion, led to problems in the grain markets. Drouth and rising demands for feed grains contributed to the rise in consumer prices. Oil prices rose too high, but the rise is still justified from the standpoint of what the user will pay, what it's worth to the world to have an assured supply.

    So, now, Helicopter Ben Bernanke is between the grindstones. Lower the Fed rate, and the dollar plunges. Raise it, and the economy contracts even further. At the moment, central banks are buying dollars, which is causing this present little rise in value against other currencies. IMO, they're like the little Dutch boy and fingers in the dike.

    In the meantime, the Treasury is buying worthless paper with public money. Sooner or later, that's gonna bite, big time. Depending on which analyst one listens to, there is between a half-trillion and a trillion more in losses and write-downs before this financial crisis hits bottom. Not good.
     
  16. rasmasyean macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2008
    #16
    Funny. How's this one...


    Did you know? One quarter of Googlers work outside the United States.

    Did you know? Google's 2008 international revenues are on track to exceed domestic sales for the first time.
    http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0809/gallery.google_anniversary.fortune/11.html
     
  17. NT1440 macrumors G4

    NT1440

    Joined:
    May 18, 2008
    Location:
    Hartford, CT
    #17
  18. rasmasyean macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2008
    #18
    Sorry, I had edited it to include another factoid that may have made it clearer.

    Google is a world recognized brand that is synonymous with the leading-edge economy today.
    After all...
    Did you know? Google is added as a verb in the Oxford English and Merriam-Webster Dictionary.
    http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0809/gallery.google_anniversary.fortune/9.html
    ;)

    As you can see, much it is happening outside of the USA, now.
     
  19. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #19
    Yeah, there is a lot going on outside the U.S.

    For instance, from the folks at Agora:

    "Over 100 Russian children now stand to inherit $1 billion or more. That’s never happened before.

    According to the Russian business magazine Finans, heirs of billion-dollar fortunes have risen 60% in the last year alone, from 70 to 112 lucky youngsters. At the top of the pile are Marina and Pyotr Deripaska, heirs to their father Oleg’s humble aluminum business. They’re worth $20 billion -- each.


    “Asia now churns out millionaires at a world-besting pace,” adds Chris Mayer, citing a study by Merrill Lynch and Capgemini. “Last year, the number of millionaires rose 22% in India and 20% in China. In terms of private wealth creation, Asia is home to five of the 10 fastest-growing markets.

    “Asia has 2.8 million millionaires, third after North America, with 3.3 million millionaires, and Europe, with 3.1 million millionaires. In terms of the combined wealth of these millionaires, the study puts Asia third, at $9.5 trillion, behind North America and Europe again, at $11.7 trillion and 10.6 trillion, respectively. But Asia's group is the fastest growing and is really not far behind.”
     
  20. rasmasyean macrumors 6502a

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2008
    #20
    Is this after the purchasing power calculations in relation to $1 million USD in USA? Because if it's not, then they are actually richer by a long shot in their own countries.
     
  21. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2006
    Location:
    norcal
    #21
    I spend way less, especially on clothes and eating out. Times are sluggish for most.

    Whoever wins, will be far better than the lowest rated president in US history, George W. Bush. OK, for you history buffs, James K. Polk was rated slightly lower.

    McCain will be far better, and imho, Obama will be better yet.

    I am so glad to know that W won't be our President come late January 2009. I am going to vote for Obama, but even McCain is nowhere near as off the charts stupid as Bush.

    To tell the absolute truth, George HW Bush was a "Prince" in comparison to George W Bush.

    Can anyone refute that cliam?

    I can almost say W is as bad as Nixon was in his second term. Thoughts?
     
  22. Aea macrumors 6502a

    Aea

    Joined:
    May 23, 2007
    Location:
    Denver, Colorado
    #22
    The number of millionaires has nothing to do with the economic power of a nation.

    Mexico has the world's richest man, and look how the rest of that nation is doing.
     
  23. sushi Moderator emeritus

    sushi

    Joined:
    Jul 19, 2002
    Location:
    キャンプスワ&#
    #23
    Good point.

    Personally, I am not too worried about the economy. Some folks and companies have over extended themselves in credit, mortgages, etc. and we are hearing about that now and seeing the effect.

    Also, we are getting closer to a world economy. No one nation controls the world markets. The G7 are still the most powerful, but there are dramatic changes elsewhere.

    'Rat, I like your signature block:
     
  24. Desertrat macrumors newbie

    Joined:
    Jul 4, 2003
    Location:
    Terlingua, Texas
    #24
    63dot, everything I read, and everything I've learned about cause-and-effect of taxation and public spending, tells me that the stated intentions of Obama will be more detrimental to the economy than would McCain's stated intentions. I've detailed the reasons for my views in other threads on this forum.

    Omitting for the moment the issue of the approximately $150 billion per year of the cost of the Iraq war: Bush's monetary problems stem in large part from the growth of Medicare and Medicaid spending, plus the "Free Pills for Olde Pharts" and such programs as No Child Left Behind. These are not conservative programs; they're socialistic in nature. I've said many times that Bush is fiscally conservative only in his mouth-music, not in his politics.

    Be that as it may, no matter who wins the election: The next president will be stuck with presiding over one of the worst financial debacles since the 1930s. My opinion, anyway. I'm swayed by parallel beliefs and prognostications of a bunch of cold-blooded investor types who have no national loyalties nor any real political philosophies. E.g., Doug Casey, Bill Bonnor and numerous others.

    I hope that they're wrong and that I'm wrong...

    'Rat
     
  25. 63dot macrumors 603

    63dot

    Joined:
    Jun 12, 2006
    Location:
    norcal
    #25
    Over this much time, it can be fairly said that Bush was not a fiscal conservative and I agree with you on that. There are two times I can think of that we faced a budget crisis on this level in my lifetime. First was after the huge crash in 1989 of which George HW Bush was blamed for unfairly and Perot got a lot of mileage from.

    And today, is in some way, as bad off as 1989. The stock market and investor confidence is better but the housing market is worse. But it is a form of a recession we are in.

    Neither Obama nor McCain can get us out of Iraq, high oil prices, and the deficit in just one term.
     

Share This Page