AZ seems to be tipping to Sinema...

samcraig

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https://www.azcentral.com/story/news/politics/elections/2018/11/11/martha-mcsally-kyrsten-sinema-senate-race-ballot-counting-results/1967206002/

Democrat Kyrsten Sinema again widened her lead again over Republican Martha McSally on Sunday, a pivotal day in the U.S. Senate race as the number of uncounted ballots dwindled.

Sinema expanded her lead to 32,640 votes as of 5 p.m. Sunday, according to updated counts posted by the Arizona Secretary of State. The lengthy vote-count process, which has continued long after the polls closed Nov. 8, is mostly due to the need to verify signatures for voters who vote by mail.

To remain competitive, McSally needed to outperform all of her previous showings in Maricopa County, the state's most populous area and one that Sinema has dominated.

Sinema's count stood at 1,068,129, or 49.58 percent of the total votes cast. McSally stood at 1,035,489, or 48.07 percent of the vote. Green Party candidate Angela Green captured 50,528 votes, representing 2.35 percent.
 

Herdfan

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Apr 11, 2011
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Not really a surprise as this is where the polls were. Disappointing, but not surprising.
 
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Thomas Veil

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Before the election I saw a story about how Arizona's vote-by-mail system was simpler and more efficient than those used in other states. Doesn't look that way now. But I'm glad Sinema is pulling ahead -- and I wish my iMac would stop "correcting" the spelling to "Cinema". o_O
 

hulugu

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Before the election I saw a story about how Arizona's vote-by-mail system was simpler and more efficient than those used in other states. Doesn't look that way now. But I'm glad Sinema is pulling ahead -- and I wish my iMac would stop "correcting" the spelling to "Cinema". o_O
I had to add her name to the dictionary a couple of years ago.

It looks like Sinema is maintaining a 2 percent lead now, even as more votes are tallied. Based on the previous counts in Maricopa and Pima County, Sinema will hold onto her lead in both, and that means she'll be the first female Senator from Arizona.

But, don't count McSally out. Jon Kyl was a place-holder to get Kavanaugh through, and he'll vacate the seat for McCain's replacement, which is likely going to be Martha McSally.
 

Herdfan

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I had to add her name to the dictionary a couple of years ago.

It looks like Sinema is maintaining a 2 percent lead now, even as more votes are tallied. Based on the previous counts in Maricopa and Pima County, Sinema will hold onto her lead in both, and that means she'll be the first female Senator from Arizona.

But, don't count McSally out. Jon Kyl was a place-holder to get Kavanaugh through, and he'll vacate the seat for McCain's replacement, which is likely going to be Martha McSally.
Explain.
 

RichardMZhlubb

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When Kyle was appointed to McCain's seat, he said he was only taking the job through the end of the year. Most people expect that McSally, now that she's apparently lost the race for Flake's seat, will be appointed to replace Kyle. (And, presuming that it happens before the new Congress is sworn in in January, she'll actually have seniority over Sinema.)
 

hulugu

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When Kyle was appointed to McCain's seat, he said he was only taking the job through the end of the year. Most people expect that McSally, now that she's apparently lost the race for Flake's seat, will be appointed to replace Kyle. (And, presuming that it happens before the new Congress is sworn in in January, she'll actually have seniority over Sinema.)
This.

As the Arizona Capitol Times wrote:

...
Gov. Doug Ducey tapped former U.S. Sen Jon Kyl today to fill the U.S. Senate seat vacated by Sen. John McCain.

Ducey’s appointment comes the same day as confirmation hearings begin for Judge Brett Kavanaugh, whom Kyl is shepherding through the U.S. Supreme Court confirmation process.

An ardent supporter of Kavanaugh, it comes as no surprise that Ducey tapped someone who will vote to confirm him to the Supreme Court.

But Kyl, 76, who did not promise to stay in the Senate seat until 2020, may not serve for long after seeing through Kavanaugh’s nomination.

“Over the last few months, Sen. Kyl has been working closely with the White House on the Senate confirmation of President Donald Trump’s nominee to the U.S. Supreme Court, Brett Kavanaugh,” Ducey said. “Now, Sen. Kyl can cast a vote for Kavanaugh’s confirmation.”
But citing Kyl’s experience, bipartisanship and 26 years in Congress, Ducey dismissed the suggestion that he only picked Kyl because he is pro-Kavanaugh.

Kyl, a lobbyist, dismissed the idea that his work will impede his ability to serve in the Senate. He will not be able to work as a lobbyist while serving as an elected official.

Republicans hold a slim majority in the Senate, which means selecting a Kavanaugh supporter to replace McCain could be vital in getting the judge confirmed to the Supreme Court.
Now, it's possible that Kyle could remain in the seat longer, or that Ducey won't want to pick McSally, but this is the current thought.

It looks like McSally is done, vote tallies show that she'd have to outperform in the remaining ballots in two counties to make up the current gap.

It will be interesting to dissect whether or not Trump hurt McSally, or whether she was doomed because of her healthcare vote, or the major get out the vote efforts actually helped Sinema.

Lots to consider.
 
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vrDrew

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The first openly bisexual person ever to be elected to a US Senate seat. And from Arizona to boot.

Maybe things won't turn out as bad as I thought.

And here's the thing: I didn't think her Republican opponent (Martha McSally) was a bad person. She wasn't. McSally was one of the first women to fly combat missions for the US Air Force. In a different universe, I'd have happily voted for her. The abortion thing, she and I have different opinions, but there we are.

God bless strong, progressive women. And God Bless the United States.
 

hulugu

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The first openly bisexual person ever to be elected to a US Senate seat. And from Arizona to boot.

Maybe things won't turn out as bad as I thought.

And here's the thing: I didn't think her Republican opponent (Martha McSally) was a bad person. She wasn't. McSally was one of the first women to fly combat missions for the US Air Force. In a different universe, I'd have happily voted for her. The abortion thing, she and I have different opinions, but there we are.

God bless strong, progressive women. And God Bless the United States.
McSally was a pretty good representative for Congressional District 2, even after defeating the incredibly decent Ron Barber. But, she changed when she decided to run for Senate, completely abandoning her centrism to cuddle up to Trump. I understand that was needed to protect her flank from right-wing nonsense machines like Kelli Ward, but she never tacked back and became increasingly bellicose when it came to immigration and border security.

She also was never honest about her vote on the ACA. She's was a good person, but she decided to eject her decent centrism for Trumpism to win the Senate.

I'm fundamentally disappointed in her.
 

PracticalMac

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McSally was a pretty good representative for Congressional District 2, even after defeating the incredibly decent Ron Barber. But, she changed when she decided to run for Senate, completely abandoning her centrism to cuddle up to Trump. I understand that was needed to protect her flank from right-wing nonsense machines like Kelli Ward, but she never tacked back and became increasingly bellicose when it came to immigration and border security.

She also was never honest about her vote on the ACA. She's was a good person, but she decided to eject her decent centrism for Trumpism to win the Senate.

I'm fundamentally disappointed in her.
People are difference when running for office than when they are in office, usually.
Moral and ethical leaders are like that.

“With great power there must also come great responsibility” Stan Lee via Peter Parker.
 

Martyimac

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McSally was a pretty good representative for Congressional District 2, even after defeating the incredibly decent Ron Barber. But, she changed when she decided to run for Senate, completely abandoning her centrism to cuddle up to Trump. I understand that was needed to protect her flank from right-wing nonsense machines like Kelli Ward, but she never tacked back and became increasingly bellicose when it came to immigration and border security.

She also was never honest about her vote on the ACA. She's was a good person, but she decided to eject her decent centrism for Trumpism to win the Senate.

I'm fundamentally disappointed in her.
As a fellow Arizonan, I am with you 100%. Sinema had sufficient centrism to win the day.
 

ThisBougieLife

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The first openly bisexual person ever to be elected to a US Senate seat. And from Arizona to boot.
I'm glad to see more LGBT people overall in government. Of course there have always been LGBT people, but they weren't necessarily open about it. As a bisexual (the only minority group that I belong to), it's nice having the "representation", and hopefully this will lead to increased normalization and the perspective that we're just people, like anyone else.
 

Herdfan

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Apr 11, 2011
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Is "running away" from Trump running to the left - or just away?
What is humorous about this is many of Trump's positions are not extreme. In fact you can find a mainstream Dem, or many Dems, that have supported the same policies he is now advocating. But since it is Trump that is proposing them, they seem to need to get as far left from them as possible.
 

Sydde

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… As a bisexual (the only minority group that I belong to) …
In real terms, I suspect that bisexuals are not outnumbered by the monosexuals, but if you count people who refuse to admit it for cultural reasons, then, yes, avowed bisexuals probably are a minority.
 

mtneer

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How much of this is a long term trend as opposed to muscle flexing between the dominant Christian castes in Arizona (Mormons vs. Evangelicals) remains to be seen. Trump had heavily gone after Mr. Flake and Mr. Romney in the near past; add in Joe Arpaio's attempts to go after Mr. Flake's family - Trump was not seen in good light by the Mormon citizenry.
 

Eraserhead

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How much of this is a long term trend as opposed to muscle flexing between the dominant Christian castes in Arizona (Mormons vs. Evangelicals) remains to be seen. Trump had heavily gone after Mr. Flake and Mr. Romney in the near past; add in Joe Arpaio's attempts to go after Mr. Flake's family - Trump was not seen in good light by the Mormon citizenry.
The vote split was much lower in 2016 than 2012.
 

JayMysterio

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What is humorous about this is many of Trump's positions are not extreme. In fact you can find a mainstream Dem, or many Dems, that have supported the same policies he is now advocating. But since it is Trump that is proposing them, they seem to need to get as far left from them as possible.
What would be a fair number of such policies by 'many dems' that 45 is now advocating?