Beggar thy neighbour: WTO score Trump 1; Canada 0

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by darksithpro, Jun 16, 2018.

  1. darksithpro macrumors 6502a

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    #1
    https://www.theglobeandmail.com/opi...hbour-trade-strategy-is-anything-but-foolish/

    Trump’s beggar-thy-neighbour trade strategy is anything but foolish

    “We will continue to make arguments based on logic and common sense and hope that eventually they will prevail against an administration that doesn’t always align itself around those principles,” Prime Minister Justin Trudeau said in response to recent tariffs imposed by the United States.

    Canadians are left with the impression that President Donald Trump is an irrational buffoon who is shooting himself in the foot with his trade policies. In fact, contrary to common (and, apparently, Canadian political executive) sense, the U.S. administration’s tariffs are actually perfectly rational – from Mr. Trump’s perspective.


    The extent of the punitive tariffs Mr. Trump is imposing is unprecedented. They threaten to bring down the system of global trade – by design. The United States has been the guarantor of the free global economy, which dates from July, 1944, when 44 states laid its foundations in the New Hampshire town of Bretton Woods. The United States was the driving force behind a series of long-winded world trade negotiations – beginning in 1947 and continuing through the current Doha round initiated in 2001, but never concluded – that lowered tariffs and barriers to trade. Spreading the free-market gospel across the world would secure the United States’ political and economic hegemony. Today, this meticulously calibrated, multilateral system of rules has 164 member-states and comprises tens of thousands of products.

    World Trade Organization (WTO) tribunals – which are about to grind to a halt because the United States has not named a judge to the seven-member Appellate Body – were meant to ensure that everyone sticks to the rules. But instead of being bound by WTO rulings, Mr. Trump’s trade czar Robert Lighthizer would prefer to default to the pre-WTO practice of directly negotiating the outcome of trade disputes.


    The President is now intent on destroying co-operation within the WTO by driving wedges between the world’s trading blocs and countries. The United States would be in a much stronger position if it could negotiate with each trade bloc directly. The painful NAFTA negotiations are but one example, and Mr. Trump’s recent musings about replacing NAFTA with two separate trade agreements with Canada and Mexico are further evidence to that effect. Canada risks selling out the WTO by making concessions to the United States.

    China, too, is negotiating bilaterally with the United States and is already caving to American demands. In the end, the large trading blocs are likely to divide up the world among themselves; countries with little leverage, such as Canada, could become collateral damage. The timing of Mr. Trump’s moves against China is auspicious: It coincides with President Xi Jinping anointing himself emperor for life and abandoning the progressive master plan for market-based reform for his Agenda 2030 for Sustainable Development, whose strategy clearly aims for Chinese economic dominance.

    In the international system, states are confronted with two basic choices in how they interact: compete or co-operate. Either states co-operate, form alliances or agreements such as the WTO and grow more prosperous or they compete and take wealth from weaker rivals. Mr. Trudeau believes that the United States should co-operate. Indeed, for decades the United States played by the rules; everyone grew richer and the United States grew richer faster than everyone else. In the postwar world, the United States’ support of free trade was a key – perhaps the key – to its rise to global economic leader. Nowadays, however, the game has changed. Where once the goal of the United States was to rise to global hegemony, today its goal is to maintain that dominance.

    So, that same rules-based system is now causing competitors – Mr. Trump’s national-security strategy makes no qualms about calling them that – to grow richer faster than the United States. Under these conditions, it is no longer in the interest of the United States to co-operate; as the global political and economic hegemon, the United States can win a strategic competition for wealth and power. Everyone ends up poorer, but the United States remains top dog because everyone else grows poorer faster than the United States. Beggar thy neighbour. Literally.

    But being frank will not sit well with Canadians; painting Mr. Trump as a crazy buffoon is more politically expedient. So, along with the EU and China, Canada falls right into Mr. Trump’s bilateral trade-negotiation trap. R.I.P. WTO. Score: Trump 1; Canada 0.
     
  2. Zenithal macrumors G3

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  3. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    Just pointing out Trump's agenda. America first.
     
  4. Zenithal macrumors G3

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    #4
    Pocket first. Buddies second. Coastals third. Flyover last.

    Stormy Daniels to finish it off.
     
  5. IWantItThatWay Suspended

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    #5
    Lol Trump has actually lost money as President, while Obama and Clinton have become super rich because of their Presidencies. It's hilarious that liberals are still fighting the 2012 war in 2016-18, no wonder Trump won!
     
  6. Abazigal macrumors G4

    Abazigal

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    #6
    That’s actually pretty clever if that were true.
     
  7. Videomanmac Suspended

    Videomanmac

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    It is true, my man.

    It's an amazing plan that only the smartest of the business people can understand.
     
  8. darksithpro thread starter macrumors 6502a

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    A little background on the author: "Christian Leuprecht is a class of 1965 professor in leadership at the Royal Military College of Canada and a Munk Senior Fellow at the Macdonald-Laurier Institute, currently on leave at the Flinders University of South Australia. Roger Bradbury is a professor of complex-systems science at the National Security College at the Australian National University."

    This guy was a professor at a military college and a member at a major non-partisan think tank. See, the other countries know Trump is playing the long game, but tries to portray him as irrational and short sited, because they don't want the US to remain the dominant super power.
     
  9. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    #9
    If Trump is playing tariffs to break down tariffs other countries have put up or renegotiate trade deficits that's one thing, if he's putting up tariffs because he thinks everything would be better if it were made in the US he will be a one termer because the economy will cripple about a year or two into this policy.
     
  10. Videomanmac Suspended

    Videomanmac

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    #10
    Trump recognizes that everything can’t be made in the US, so thankfully, he isn’t doing these tarffs doing that reason.
     
  11. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    If you're picking a fight with Canada...you should probably take a breath. The concept of America first can (and probably should) use team work. Canada is like our reasonable upstairs neighbors that put up with our parties and still put the garbage/recycling out anyways (without saying a word). Crazy.
     
  12. Videomanmac Suspended

    Videomanmac

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    Very good way of putting it. I don’t want to start a fight with any country, but Canada needs to understands that without us, they wouldn’t be able to afford rent upstairs.
     
  13. Zenithal macrumors G3

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    Over the long period, that may be true. Hard to judge anything given there's no model of this working out successfully. Though I question what those in middle-America, mainly farmers, will do when they can't afford to keep going due to tariffs by foreign nations, who've gone ahead with buying from other countries they don't have a tariff war with. Will the Trump Administration sanction those countries? Will corporate and non-corporate farms rely on more government subsidies to cover their costs?
     
  14. blackfox macrumors 65816

    blackfox

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    This is interesting, if only because we agree. Canada needs the US as a trading partner. Yet, the US shouldn't be a bully, and we need trading partners too. Canada is a big one. This is where we disagree...progress is forged by discussion and compromise more than by force. Yet, Trump offers incoherence more than force, since that needs follow-through.
     
  15. cube, Jun 17, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2018

    cube macrumors P6

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    #15
    I look sometimes at this publication because I still haven't decided how bad it is.

    I guess it is at about the same level as The Times or The Telegraph.
     
  16. samcraig macrumors P6

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    #16
    An opinion piece isn't fact.

    And pissing off Canada (for example) isn't a right move no matter how you slice it.
     
  17. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #17
    To the extent that Trump has lost money, it’s only because he failed to predict how much people would hate him and how that might affect his overall bottom line. At the same time, the Trump Organization is involved in a constant stream of graft and corruption, both petty (doubling the fee to join Mar-a-lago and then bringing foreign leaders there as a floor show) and material (making millions of dollars of extra, unanticipated profit by using Trump’s DC hotel as a money-laundering operation for lobbyists and foreign governments).
     
  18. juanm macrumors 68000

    juanm

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    #18
    Expect Canada and the rest of the former allies to come back at the US with coordinated and equal measures in the coming months.
     
  19. IronWaffle macrumors 6502

    IronWaffle

    #20
    What you oooooobviously fail to understand that the US opening a multi-front trade war is four-dimensional chess. Everyone knows fighting on multiple fronts is historically proven to win. This is gonna be easy, folks. Obviously.

    For those who feel that international trade agreements are a circle jerk, I wonder how they feel about a circular firing squad? Since we in the US like to be in the center of everything, well, uh... winning?
     
  20. Huntn, Jun 17, 2018
    Last edited: Jun 17, 2018

    Huntn macrumors demi-god

    Huntn

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    #21
    Your documentation? His brand has imploded, so it would not surprise me. All he has left are his corrupt schemes like pay my Presidential access account, formerly run by the respected Mr. Cohen and I’ll consider your bribe or invest in my overseas project and I’ll reverse my trade sanction against one of your companies and finally his quid pro quo mountain of financial conflicts of interest.

    But he has done a magnificent job alienating every one of our allies. :oops:
     
  21. Mac'nCheese Suspended

    Mac'nCheese

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    As a democrat, I hope it works. I don’t want him to fail just so we can say I told you so. I would hope, he would take some of this money we can earn in tariffs and extra taxes (if more jobs are created here) and pay down the debt. Not the yearly deficit but our actual debt. Pay off some China loans. Until we do that, how free economically are we?
     
  22. cube macrumors P6

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    #23
    If he wanted to pay the debt he would not have given a huge tax gift.
     
  23. Mac'nCheese Suspended

    Mac'nCheese

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    #24
    I agree.
     
  24. duffman9000 macrumors 68000

    duffman9000

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    #25
    He lost money as president? When was he making money without stiffing gullible people? Oh that’s right. Right after filing for each of his 6 bankruptcies.
     

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99 June 16, 2018