Bernie has 80% of the delegates that Hillary has, Cruz has 68% of what Trump has.

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by 1458279, Apr 6, 2016.

  1. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #1
    http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2016/us/elections/primary-calendar-and-results.html

    Delegate Count:
    Hillary: 1279
    Bernie: 1027

    That's 80%


    Trump: 742
    Cruz: 505

    That's 68%

    At least two things jump out:
    1. It seems like some are talking like Cruz has more of a chance that Bernie does.
    2. The super delegates are WAY off from the delegates:
    Super delegates:
    Hillary: 469
    Bernie: 31

    That's about 7%

    The Bernie people should be really pissed right about now, the DNC is blocking it's own party.
     
  2. thewap macrumors demi-god

    thewap

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    #2
    They don't care, if Hitler was the front runner for the democrats, the liberals would vote for him.
     
  3. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    #3
    That is spot on .
     
  4. zioxide macrumors 603

    zioxide

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    #4
    Heh. If that were really the case then Bernie wouldn't even be in this discussion and Hillary would have already been nominated.

    The fact that Bernie is not only still around but is winning contests by big margins, won 7 of the last 8 contests, and has raised money from 6+ million individuals pretty much invalidates your statement.

    A huge portion of the voter base that normally votes blue is extremely fed up with the DNC's and Debbie Wasserman Schultz-Clinton's attempt to fix this race for Hillary.
     
  5. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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  6. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    I wonder if they are fed up enough to swing those super delegates to vote more in line with the votes of the people.

    It should be VERY telling that something is wrong when Bernie has 80% of one and 7% of another. Shows the system is clearly rigged against the voters.

    This is the same thing going on with the Right and the GOP is upside down over this, yet the Dems don't seem to be that upset.

    Maybe I'm wrong, maybe the Left being so upset is WHY Bernie just won 7 out of 8.
     
  7. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #7
    but instead he's the front runner for the republicans so the liberals won't vote for him.....that wacky Hitler!

    :p
     
  8. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    #8
    I'd like to hear Kasich say that, just to see the look on his face as he said it :D

    Rubio has more delegates than Kasich, and Rubio isn't running any more:oops:
    --- Post Merged, Apr 6, 2016 ---
    It sure doesn't take long for the Trump is Hitler people to come out.
     
  9. jkcerda macrumors 6502

    jkcerda

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    #9
    You don't want Cruz at all.
     
  10. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #10
    oh you think trump is the front runner still? :p
     
  11. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    #11
  12. Robisan macrumors 6502

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    #12
    Those aren't votes, they're endorsements.

    Look, here's the tally so far:

    Pledged (Earned) Delegate Count:
    Hillary: 1279
    Bernie: 1027

    Total Primary Votes:

    Hillary: 9,350,448
    Bernie: 6,946,757

    Why does anyone think the super delegates should overturn the will of the voters?

    ...adding, every single person in this thread would go ape**** if Bernie lead Hillary by those numbers and the SDs overturned Bernie's lead.
     
  13. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #13
    yes, there's a rumor that the republican convention is to operate under common core math rules........that way the party establishment can dump trump
     
  14. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    #14
    It's the ratio of the numbers that are concerning. The actual votes show a close match to the delegates (80% vs 74%) where as the SD shows (93 vs 7%).

    The SD's should line up MUCH closer to what the actual votes are. My understanding is that the establishment controls the SD whereas the voters have more control over the delegates and full control over the votes.

    If the SD's don't match the will of the voters, the voters should be very pissed.

    Also note that this comes from the party that always cries about voter disenfranchisement, yet that's exactly what they are doing by a HUGE margin.
    --- Post Merged, Apr 6, 2016 ---
    If that's done, they'll pay a HUUUUUGE price for it. We're willing to kill the party if it doesn't follow the will of the voters.

    The Right is far past ready to stand up to Washington, it's really a question of if the Left is ready to stand up to Washington. It's looking like they might be, if Bernie continues at this pace and they reject Hillary, that'll send the most powerful message to Washington in a VERY long time.
     
  15. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #15
    that certainly could happen as it's looking more and more possible that trump won't have the delegates needed for the win
     
  16. Robisan macrumors 6502

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    AGAIN, the only thing the SDs have done is endorse. Last I heard, the 1st Amendment applies to SDs too - they have a right to express themselves. No votes have been given or taken. You simply refuse to acknowledge this.

    Why should SD votes - when they are cast at the convention - be proportional to the actual vote? Seems to me the SDs should vote for the overall winner of all the primaries, whoever that turns out to be. They should ratify the overall decision of the voters.

    Yes, this! The will of the voters is whoever wins the most pledged delegates and has the most primary votes.
     
  17. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    Ok, looks like I don't understand the role of SDs. From what you say, they don't matter in the selection process for who goes to the primary. Ok, so they just endorse? What difference do they actually make in selecting the winner?
    --- Post Merged, Apr 6, 2016 ---
    At least it'll be a good test of a few things. We'll be able to see if they'll act on all the anger of the voters and see if they want to follow the voters or force the voters to follow them.

    They'll find out that the voters WON'T follow them this time. We've done that in the past, and the results got us where we are today.
     
  18. cfedu macrumors 65816

    cfedu

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    #18
    And they would become nazi apologists by saying nazism is the ideology of peace. Don't blame all nazi's you racist bigot!
     
  19. Robisan macrumors 6502

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    #19
    They have nothing to do with who runs in the primary. You or I or anyone can run if we meet the qualifications to be on the ballot for each state.

    They are delegates and have a vote at the convention. Unlike pledged (earned) delegates, they are free to vote for anyone. However, like every delegate, they don't vote until the convention.

    They have a 1st Amendment right to endorse candidates if they so choose. That includes stating who they would votes for if they could vote today (or whenever they're speaking). Or even saying who they intend to vote for at the convention. Until they actually vote at the convention it's all just words.

    The bottom line is this: Notwithstanding anything they say now, it will be very difficult for the SDs to vote at the convention to overturn the will of the voters, which is defined as the candidate who earns the most pledged delegates and the most primary votes.

    Finally, I ask again: If Bernie finishes leading Hillary in pledged delegates and primary votes what would be your reaction if the SDs voted to nominate Hillary??? So, if Hillary finishes leading Bernie...???
     
  20. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    He does because there is only one other Candidate in the Democratic party, so it going to a contested convention where nobody has the majority of pledged delegates is impossible (unless O'Mally got a delegate or two before he dropped out and it ends up that close). On the other hand It is not very likely that Trump will get a majority of delegates, and so far Trump has 742 delegates while the candidates running against him have 835. Nine of those are Carson's who has endorsed Trump, but most of the rest are not likely to go for Trump, so Cruz has a chance to unite them against Trump on the second or later ballot.
     
  21. 1458279 thread starter Suspended

    1458279

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    #21
    If Bernie out earns Hillary and Hillary wins the SDs, the people should revolt, just the Right is ready to do.

    So back to the function of the SDs, they have the same 1 for 1 value as the delegates do? From what you say, it seems they are counted the same, it's just a matter of when they are counted and how they are 'earned'.
    --- Post Merged, Apr 6, 2016 ---
    What I was thinking was pre-contested. In other words the path to getting the number needed to not have a contested convention.

    It seems like Bernie actually has a more workable path to an uncontested convention than Cruz does, being that Bernie actually has 80% of the number Hillary does and has momentum going at this point with a 7 out of last 8 record.

    I wonder if anyone has done the math on Bernie if he continues with the 7 out of 8 rate from this point forward? Does Bernie win if he keeps the same rate as now? I guess some are winner take all and some are split.
     
  22. ericgtr12 macrumors 6502a

    ericgtr12

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    The rules are different for each party, set by their own respective committees. On both sides they're running their campaigns with them in mind, as well as exploiting them where they can.

    This is why the RNC has a better chance of taking it to the convention floor, they have a much heavier divide, the establishment doesn't want Trump and they will either take full advantage of their rule system, or may even change them to fit.

    On the Democratic side, the superdelegates on Hillary's side and are unlikely to shift, no rules will need to be tweaked because it's very unlikely that Bernie, even though he has momentum, will be able to make the numbers work. The Bernie people are clearly upset right now, he's won 7 of the last 8 states and that makes it seem compelling but the reality is it's a marathon and not a sprint. Hillary's team is running with this in mind.

    Take the emotion out of it and just look at the math to get a realistic picture of how this is all playing out.
     
  23. Robisan macrumors 6502

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    #23
    So if Hillary out earns Bernie, as she's currently doing?

    One person, one vote. Just like pledged delegates. No votes are counted until the convention. Until then, anything SDs say are just words.
     
  24. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    That's pretty rich coming from the party that is dithering between the modern Il Duce, and a man so disliked by his colleagues that another candidate joked he could be murdered on the Senate floor, and no one in the Senate would convict the perpetrator.

    And, where did all the "libertarians" go? Because they can't be voting for Trump or Cruz, who have both promised to attack civil liberties and start new conflicts.
     
  25. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

    BoxerGT2.5

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    #25
    Here's what people fail to realize, Bernie has been a "independent" from 1979-2015. The DNC is doing what any political party would do to someone who has never raised money for them or any democratic candidate in a statewide or federal race. I remember democrats campaigning for him in 2005 during his Senate race. I don't think I've ever heard of Sanders campaigning for anyone but himself. These super delegates are the party leaders in their respective state and extremely active members of the democratic party. They aren't going to cast their vote for a candidate who for the last 36yrs did next to nothing for the party except caucus with them. I'm not a democrat, but that's the politics of it.
     

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