Bets on the Caucus

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by themadchemist, Jan 3, 2008.

  1. themadchemist macrumors 68030

    themadchemist

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    #1
    With the Iowa Caucus tonight, let's post our hunches on the outcome. Not what you *want* to see happen (there are already threads for that), but what you think will happen.

    Republicans

    1. Huckabee
    2. Romney
    3. Paul

    Democrats

    1. Obama
    2. Clinton
    3. Edwards
     
  2. Lyle macrumors 68000

    Lyle

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    #2
    Romney and Clinton as the winners; not sure about order of the runners-up.
     
  3. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #3
    Iowa is weird... very liberal and very evangelical... I'm going to be there for Obama and I am a very persuasive Panda... :) But I think the OP's predictions are correct.
     
  4. Macky-Mac macrumors 68030

    Macky-Mac

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    #4
    Republicans
    1. Huckabee
    2. Romney
    3. McCain
    4. Paul
    5. Thompson
    6. Guiliani

    Democrats
    1. Obama
    2. Edwards
    3. Clinton
     
  5. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #5
    Someone explain how this works, it seems very unordinary. We are letting a room full of people decide the president.
     
  6. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #6
    In short (and probably semi-wrong but you can get the gist till somebody smart stops in), the caucus' are held to "get a vibe" for who the parties will support nationally. So it's not an election so much as it is a "hey <insert party here>, a lot of people really like this candidate so you should support them nationally". I believe both parties have a backup candidate already in mind in case they don't agree with the nation. Once these are over is when you'll know who is going to be on the ticket in November.

    So the rooms full of people aren't selecting the president. They're selecting who they would like a party to support and likely be on the ballot.

    Speaking of which... I need to leave soon to get to my caucus location!
     
  7. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #7
    Wirelessly posted (Mozilla/5.0 (iPhone; U; CPU like Mac OS X; en) AppleWebKit/420.1 (KHTML, like Gecko) Version/3.0 Mobile/3B48b Safari/419.3)

    I'm here! This is just my precinct but... So far Obama seems crowded, and Hillary and Edwards seem to have about half or less of Obamas so far if that. It's early of course. I'll update more in a bit.
     
  8. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #8
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    Note to mods: i'll get these posts merged when I get home.

    Richardson, Obama, Hillary, and Edwards have a visible (signage) prescence here. Dodd has a piece of printer paper with his name scribbled on it. Obama is bleeding into Richardsons area, has eaten Dodds area, and is slowly taking up Hillary space.

    Hillary seems mostly 20-30 year old female. Edwards has too few to tell. Right now it's probably 75 percent (I don't see the percent sign on my iPhone!) Obama, 10% (found it) for the two other majors, 5% other. Hillary is stronger than Edwards though. We may end up with 2 viables here.
     
  9. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #9
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    I hope we start soon. We have 4 delegates. Ratio is pretty much the same still. Oh we're starting!
     
  10. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #10
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    223 people here I think. 33 for viability. So they said.
     
  11. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #11
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    Oh now I see signs for Gravel and Kucinich. Looks like all candidates have printer paper signs.
     
  12. AP_piano295 macrumors 65816

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    #12
    In a moment will be returning to silent panda for the up to the minute report :D
     
  13. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #13
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    we're realigning. Obama at top, Hillary around 44, Edwards was one short, rest were lower. Richardson would be 4th head count wise.
     
  14. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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    #14
    I keep reading that as bet on circus. I guess it would fit tho.:p
     
  15. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #15
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    Down to 4 candidates. Richardson half way to viable but don't think he'll make it. Sounds like Richardson is breaking up now with most coming to Obama.
     
  16. MacNut macrumors Core

    MacNut

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  17. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #17
    CNN is projecting Huckabee as the republican winner :(

    The thought of him as president scares the crap out of me.


    But Obama seems to be ahead too which is a plus
     
  18. Lyle macrumors 68000

    Lyle

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    #18
    You guys understand that these are just the Iowa caucuses, right? This isn't the actual election. ;)
     
  19. dukebound85 macrumors P6

    dukebound85

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    #19
    i heard there is a strong correlation between who wins the iowa caucuses and the actual nomination

    ill try to look it up but i rmember that from somewhere
     
  20. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #20
    I know, but the sooner we can get Huckabee out of the running and Obama in, the better ;)
     
  21. dukebound85 macrumors P6

    dukebound85

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    #21
    man did that just give away what party you support or what lol
     
  22. SilentPanda Moderator emeritus

    SilentPanda

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    #22
    Woo I'm home. Final count was
    Richardson - 4
    Obama - 133
    Clinton - 44
    Edwards - 39

    My friend (at a republican caucus) said Romney won his. I told him he must live in an area with a bunch of Jesus haters... :p

    Anyway it was my first caucus. It's not intimidating to do at all. Most of the people there were saying it was their first time too. I would encourage everybody to go to your states caucus if you're thinking about it.

    Of course the numbers above are one precinct in a very select area so... yeah. But some people dig this stuff so i figured I'd post it. Sorry for the spammage! At least post count doesn't count in here.
     
  23. KingYaba macrumors 68040

    KingYaba

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    #23
    CNN is showing Obama winning with 35% at the moment. Huck ah Bee seems to have taken the Elephants.
     
  24. yg17 macrumors G5

    yg17

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    #24

    You crazy folks up in Iowa are the only ones who crowd a bunch of people into a little room to elect your presidential nominee :p

    The rest of us have regular primaries. And yes, I will be participating in that. I've already sent in my request for an absentee ballot since I'll be away at college.
     
  25. Daveway macrumors 68040

    Daveway

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    #25
    Damned Huckabee projected to win at 35%. The thought of hearing the work "Islamo-facism" any longer makes me nauseous.
     

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