Biden vows to bring back


LizKat

macrumors 603
Aug 5, 2004
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Polls are meaningless.
Well look. The country didn't give the ACA time to settle in and demo the value of having ratings experience that reflected participation of young and healthy Americans. Fixing that thing up is probably a whole lot more feasible than trying to sell in the idea of Medicare for All, which hospitals are saying they'll close their doors before trying out. And fixing up ACA is what most Americans indicated they actually wanted as opposed to repealing it without replacement etc.

And polls are not actually meaningless. One needs to know how to construct them.. and read them. Try paying more attention to a site like FiveThirtyEight that goes into the details of polling and significance of results etc.

Biden's pitch might land better with prospective voters than some people would like to imagine.
 
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Zenithal

macrumors G3
Sep 10, 2009
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2019 is the first year without the mandate. We'll only get an idea next April of how many people skipped insurance provides the IRS releases the numbers.
 

pshufd

macrumors 65816
Oct 24, 2013
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Well look. The country didn't give the ACA time to settle in and demo the value of having ratings experience that reflected participation of young and healthy Americans. Fixing that thing up is probably a whole lot more feasible than trying to sell in the idea of Medicare for All, which hospitals are saying they'll close their doors before trying out. And fixing up ACA is what most Americans indicated they actually wanted as opposed to repealing it without replacement etc.

And polls are not actually meaningless. One needs to know how to construct them.. and read them. Try paying more attention to a site like FiveThirtyEight that goes into the details of polling and significance of results etc.

Biden's pitch might land better with prospective voters than some people would like to imagine.
Biden will pull in Rs and they're probably not covered by the pollsters.
 

DearthnVader

macrumors 6502a
Dec 17, 2015
893
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Let's see who can get left of who, then worry about walking it back in the general election.:rolleyes:

Liberals have a demographic problem, and a geographic problem. They can win the popular vote, and lose biggly in the electoral college.

Things that play well with urban voters, don't play that well with rural people, and rural people, I think, tend to vote more in elections, as a percentage, and not just vote in opinion poles.
 

pshufd

macrumors 65816
Oct 24, 2013
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Polls are meaningless.
They drive funding, media attention, and determine who gets attacked the most - which is good because you want to be tested in the primary (unlike 2016). So yes, they do matter.

"And polls are not actually meaningless. One needs to know how to construct them.. and read them. Try paying more attention to a site like FiveThirtyEight that goes into the details of polling and significance of results etc."

I did read a 538 roundtable on polls. It's not a real article though.

"Let's see who can get left of who, then worry about walking it back in the general election"

That's usually the issue with both parties.

"Things that play well with urban voters, don't play that well with rural people, and rural people, I think, tend to vote more in elections, as a percentage, and not just vote in option poles."

The midterms were certainly mixed.

I do think that Biden, blemishes and all, has the best change to beat Trump. I think that the economy and the stock market at that time, will be most important. It will be interesting to see what those doing really well in this economy do. Vote for huge redistribution and bashing of their industries or go with the slightly less redistributionist sitting President.
 
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DearthnVader

macrumors 6502a
Dec 17, 2015
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They drive funding, media attention, and determine who gets attacked the most - which is good because you want to be tested in the primary (unlike 2016). So yes, they do matter.

"And polls are not actually meaningless. One needs to know how to construct them.. and read them. Try paying more attention to a site like FiveThirtyEight that goes into the details of polling and significance of results etc."

I did read a 538 roundtable on polls. It's not a real article though.

"Let's see who can get left of who, then worry about walking it back in the general election"

That's usually the issue with both parties.

"Things that play well with urban voters, don't play that well with rural people, and rural people, I think, tend to vote more in elections, as a percentage, and not just vote in option poles."

The midterms were certainly mixed.

I do think that Biden, blemishes and all, has the best change to beat Trump. I think that the economy and the stock market at that time, will be most important. It will be interesting to see what those doing really well in this economy do. Vote for huge redistribution and bashing of their industries or go with the slightly less redistributionist sitting President.
It's still a pretty patriarchal society, and rich white males sit at the top of the pyramid. So, I think, Biden may win out of the field of (D).

Just how far left is he going to have to go to not disillusion fervent progressives. It's a tuff place to be, herding cats as the head of one of the two major political parties.
 
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jeyf

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Jan 20, 2009
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all the boomers are signed up on mediCare and they dont care about the mandate. You carry car insurance?
 
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pshufd

macrumors 65816
Oct 24, 2013
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It's still a pretty patriarchal society, and rich white males sit at the top of the pyramid. So, I think, Biden may when out of the field of (D).

Just how far left is he going to have to go to not disillusion fervent progressives. It's a tuff place to be, herding cats as the head of one of the two major political parties.
I was in Orlando last week and saw a lot of those rich, white families. I was a bit jealous. The hotel I stayed at didn't allow delivery services to enter the place, and outside the hotel was a line of black SUVs, ready to transport guests to wherever they needed to go in comfort. It had ten restaurants and it's the only time I've ever paid $26 for a cheese pizza.

I work with a lot of low-upper-class, high-middle-class folks and they're going for Biden. They want to keep their stock options and company stock prices high and heavy redistribution doesn't go well with that. If you get a far-left candidate out of the primaries, then the upper-middle-class and lower-upper-class is going to have to decide between Trump and redistribution. If you think SALT was bad ...
[doublepost=1562771979][/doublepost]
all the boomers are signed up on mediCare and they dont care about the mandate. You carry car insurance.
Not all of them. Boomers go up to 1963 so there are still a lot of them in the workforce.
 

jeyf

macrumors 65816
Jan 20, 2009
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Not all of them. Boomers go up to 1963 so there are still a lot of them in the workforce.
just fyi: you sign up for mediCade if your >65 but has nothing to do with retirement.
hope the boomers stay in the work force & benefit form mediCare, its the law.
 

pshufd

macrumors 65816
Oct 24, 2013
1,286
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just fyi: you sign up for mediCade if your >65 but has nothing to do with retirement.
hope the boomers stay in the work force & benefit form mediCare, its the law.
Yes, I know about this stuff. I'm planning to retire this year at 60 so I need health insurance coverage for 4 1/2 years. I might also just go back to work after a year. I need a year to recover from cancer treatment. I just went back to work and it's been really rough physically.
 

jkcerda

macrumors 6502a
Original poster
Jun 10, 2013
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They drive funding, media attention, and determine who gets attacked the most - which is good because you want to be tested in the primary (unlike 2016). So yes, they do matter.

"And polls are not actually meaningless. One needs to know how to construct them.. and read them. Try paying more attention to a site like FiveThirtyEight that goes into the details of polling and significance of results etc."

I did read a 538 roundtable on polls. It's not a real article though.

"Let's see who can get left of who, then worry about walking it back in the general election"

That's usually the issue with both parties.

"Things that play well with urban voters, don't play that well with rural people, and rural people, I think, tend to vote more in elections, as a percentage, and not just vote in option poles."

The midterms were certainly mixed.

I do think that Biden, blemishes and all, has the best change to beat Trump. I think that the economy and the stock market at that time, will be most important. It will be interesting to see what those doing really well in this economy do. Vote for huge redistribution and bashing of their industries or go with the slightly less redistributionist sitting President.
polls are as biased as the givers want them to be, questions can be structured the way they want it to get the desired outcome.
 

jeyf

macrumors 65816
Jan 20, 2009
1,187
540
medicaid; you will still need to buy prescription and dental

employer health insurance with a high deductible is of limited functionality.

i would like to see a retirement age for the POTUS but it seems the candidates are getting older, really old. Who is voting for these candidates? Say what you want about Trump but the bet is he watches >9hours TV a day and he cant remember his last meal. Good for him to pull it off.

polling can be as accurate as needed.
 

pshufd

macrumors 65816
Oct 24, 2013
1,286
876
New Hampshire
medicaid; you will still need to buy prescription and dental

employer health insurance with a high deductible is of limited functionality.

i would like to see a retirement age for the POTUS but it seems the candidates are getting older, really old. Who is voting for these candidates? Say what you want about Trump but the bet is he watches >9hours TV a day and he cant remember his last meal. Good for him to pull it off.

polling can be as accurate as needed.
Gallop poll indicates that 80% of Americans are happy with their insurance. So do you need to throw out the system or tweak it for the other 20%.

Age is just a number. What was the average lifespan 30 years ago and now? I would have likely been statistically close to death by now in the 1950s. Now we have incredible healthcare and knowledge about how to take care of ourselves.
 

jeyf

macrumors 65816
Jan 20, 2009
1,187
540
Yes, I know about this stuff. I'm planning to retire this year at 60 so I need health insurance coverage for 4 1/2 years. I might also just go back to work after a year. I need a year to recover from cancer treatment. I just went back to work and it's been really rough physically.
and

Gallop poll indicates that 80% of Americans are happy with their insurance. So do you need to throw out the system or tweak it for the other 20%. Age is just a number. What was the average lifespan 30 years ago and now? I would have likely been statistically close to death by now in the 1950s. Now we have incredible healthcare and knowledge about how to take care of ourselves.

just thought of these two posts all at one in the same thread
 

pshufd

macrumors 65816
Oct 24, 2013
1,286
876
New Hampshire
and

just thought of these two posts all at one in the same thread
No clue as to why. I’ve been working straight for 46 years and should have taken a year off or just retired but I committed to finishing a project and don’t want to leave my manager without that done and a trained replacement. I think that I can make three times my work salary in retirement.

I’ll go on COBRA for 18 months and either get a job or use the public exchanges. They are excellent in MA.
 

LizKat

macrumors 603
Aug 5, 2004
5,323
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Catskill Mountains
Biden will pull in Rs and they're probably not covered by the pollsters.
Biden could possibly even pull in Republicans who are covered by the pollsters but who are not currently being asked the kinds of questions that could reveal their eventual decision. That will probably continue to be true until or unless some of the gears in a fairly brittle US economy break down sooner than the Republicans are hoping for in terms of election prospects.

If "something happens" in the near future, either with consumer confidence or default on their burgeoning credit card balances, Trump can't fix this economy with rate cuts. Read between the lines in this Reuters piece and the next collapse 1) ain't gonna be pretty and 2) ain't that far down the road.


The big banks were quick to switch from overindulgence in mortgage-based assets to big farm loans in the recovering economy, and they're now the ones starting to disengage as the failure rate of those loans continues to increase. The little banks are the ones still most dependent on farm loans to stay in business since rural areas lag behind in job development during the recovery. A rate cut means a lot of things but none of it's good news to publicly traded banks seeking to show continued profit margin growth. Their reaction to downturn signals including accelerated defaults on loans is to call in more dicey loans (exacerbating decline in consumer spending and jacking up local job loss in rural areas), and then to jack up rates on existing revolving balances to consumers with decent credit "because they can". Consumer confidence is reasonably high in the current phase of the economic recovery but balances are higher than in the past and the default rate on credit cards has increased this year.

What does that boil down to? A challenge to whoever wins the WH in 2020. In fact if the Rs were smart at this point they'd quit worrying about what might happen to their boy Don and just focus on keeping Mitch in his seat and the US Senate red enough to make that combo the one bright star on the party's horizon. But Trump's voice is loud enough so the RNC still figures he's their guy for 2020 because his supporters are loud too.

Funny thing about some thunderstorms, they don't arrive with a strike out in the back pasture and a thunderclap that rattles your windows. They just growl a little before the heavens open to release torrential rains.

The White House in 2021 is going to be looking at a rerun of 2009 at best.... and the problem for the Dems is that very much unlike George W. Bush, Donald Trump's administration would not be rolling up sleeves to help an incoming admin deal with the impact of a downcycle -- whether it's a true collapse again or just a severe onslaught of a cyclical recession but much farther down the road of unsustainably unfettered capitalism.​

If Trump loses, the first thing the Rs will do rather than prepare briefing books for the incoming crew is probably haul out the shredders and data erasure apps. Makes one almost nostalgic for Bush 43 (again). Love him or hate him, no one will say GWB was uncooperative with the incoming administration in trying to keep the nation's economy from foundering.

If Trump wins then the Rs will own the entire flock of birds coming home to roost. And they've long since canned or sidelined institutional knowledge they'd need in order to establish a foundation for another good recovery from yet another cataclysm of late stage capitalism.​

Biden could probably count on enough good will from traditional Senate Republicans to help fashion a bipartisan approach to economic recovery. Sure he comes off as a centrist and we're still in a populist minded mood out there if social media attitudes actually translate to votes. But there's a different edge to populism now, thanks to Trump's betrayals and twisting of "MAGA"... the people want to know from candidates "How ya gonna make yer policies happen???

Trump's suggestions for recovery from economic failure would fetch derision from Senate Democrats and although that reaction would in turn draw scorn from social media on the right, and from the ultra-conservative press, no one should be surprised if the House, plus the Dems in the Senate dragged feet on a Trump-designed approach to the next economic recovery. His track record already shows perfectly well that his attentions to government focus on how to make it serve him and his ilk in the plutocracy. Trump's MAGA policy in practice does not serve the people.

With chips coming down and Trump's half-burnt chickens coming home to roost, Biden could start looking pretty good to some of those big farmers in the midwest, and maybe even to whatever small bankers still scratch out a living in rural areas of all 50 states.

Pro tip: small town bankers take coffee breaks in local diners, to keep a hand on the pulse of local economies. Ya think they just sit there reading the paper? They listen... and sometimes they talk, too. They are not fans of Donald Trump's economic policies to date. And a rate cut or two is not going to fix that. Even a photo op with Trump wouldn't fix that. A photo op with Biden might be unlikely, but their vote for the dude is entirely possible.
 

yaxomoxay

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Mar 3, 2010
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And it's good for his poll numbers.
According to the above graph, Biden is in trouble. When two or three among Sanders/Harris/Warren/Buttigieg/O’Rourke drop off the race, their voters will move towards who’s left among the five, and not towards Biden. I assume that Booker, Castro, Gillibrand, and Yang’s voters will also stay away from Biden.
 
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