Big drop in generic ballot for Democrats - only 3 point advantage

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Rogifan, May 9, 2018.

  1. Rogifan macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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    #1
    Ouch. Whatever Democrats are (or aren’t ) doing I don’t think it’s a slam dunk they take the House this fall. And that’s with Republicans basically doing nothing right now. And if Trump has a successful summit with North Korea, forget about it.

    For Democrats on the board, why do you think the polling is so tight?
     
  2. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

    BoxerGT2.5

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    #2
    Because they think they have to go further left and independents aren't going there. If they were smart they'd go for the middle that they lost in last election, those who aren't hyper partisan who can see Trump is an idiot.
     
  3. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #3
    And it was 9 points in another poll just a few days ago. You need to look at the aggregate poll numbers and right now that's at 7 points (according to 538). The problem with all of these polls is estimating turnout based on relative enthusiasm levels. In every special election since Trump was elected, Democratic turnout has crushed Republican turnout and I don't see that changing in November.
     
  4. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    It's politics. Nothing is certain. However, I think the Democrats need to talk about their alternative to the GOP and not just slam Trump all the time (as tempting as it is). The Democrats need to take the GOP to task for the recent votes in Congress (ACA; tax cuts for the rich resulting in huge budget deficits) and decision in the executive branch (raping national parks with fossil fuel exploration and net neutrality, for instance).
     
  5. Mac'nCheese macrumors 68040

    Mac'nCheese

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    #5
    Every poll changes something and it’s right away with uh oh the Rebuplicans are done for or there goes the Dem’s changes again. We need to stop reading polls.
     
  6. hulugu macrumors 68000

    hulugu

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    The generic poll is pretty flawed, especially since these are national-level polls and we can see that on the ground, national-level polls are often wrong.

    And, we also see lots of statistical noise in these kinds of polls. About a year ago, according to the RCP average, Democrats were up 44.3 to 38.5 percent. By December, the difference decreased and rose until it reached a 49.1 to 36.1 percent difference.

    Now, the difference is about 6.9 percent, an average that includes CNN's latest poll.

    But, when we look at local polling, we see some differences. In the Arizona Senate race, Kyrsten Sinema has a 6 to 26 point lead over the Republican contenders—26 over Joe "Felon" Arpaio, 10 over Kelly Ward, and 6 over Martha McSally. (And, Ward's got 9 points over McSally for the GOP nod, and 14 points over Arpaio.)

    If the GOP in Arizona went nuts and chose Arpaio, he'd get crushed by 26 points, a huge difference from the generic poll.

    And, Clare McCaskill in Missouri has 4 points over Josh Hawley in the latest poll, but her race is a statistical tie with a 1.7 percent spread, well within the margin of error for the polls.

    Meanwhile, Kirsten Gillibrand has a 35 percent lead over Republican Chele Farley in New York.

    Polls are useful as points in time, but they really can't tell what voters will think in six weeks, must less six months.
     
  7. FrankieTDouglas macrumors 65816

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    Because enthusiasm for generic Democrat is hard to find. Generic Democrat means Clinton, Perez, all of the usual standard, boring, bad idea offerings. Someone like Bernie, or Gabbard? Enthusiasm would go up a lot, because they're actually good candidates. Ironically, good because they aren't your standard Democrat template.

    This is also contrasting with a current president who, while some people hate him, is actually accomplishing big, positive stuff on a world stage and people are noticing. Some may hate him, but generic Democrat voters are going to hate anyone who doesn't tow their line. Didn't we learn that in 2016?

    Also, beyond everything else... didn't EVERYONE learn to not trust polls in 2016?
     
  8. RichardMZhlubb, May 9, 2018
    Last edited: May 9, 2018

    RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #8
    No, he isn’t and the only people “noticing” are already in the tank for him.
     
  9. Rogifan thread starter macrumors Core

    Rogifan

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    #9
    Based on how the popular vote turned out were national polls really that wrong in 2016?
     
  10. FrankieTDouglas macrumors 65816

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    Um, yeah. National popular vote is useless information when an election is based on State-based popular vote. And in those relevant polls, they were wrong, too.
     
  11. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #11
    Fivethirtyeight.com concluded that, based on the state polls, Trump had roughly a 1 in 3 chance of winning, which was probably just about right.
     
  12. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    The polls were correct in 2016. Trump barely won... In a country of hundreds of millions, he won with a football stadium of people dispersed in battleground states. No poll could be that accurate.

    Also, he's accomplished like, two things and made an ass out of himself (and us) two times times 20.

    -He got his tax breaks to keep his donors and himself happy. I haven't noticed any changes in my taxes, those of you who are taking home more money, enjoy it while you can before you pay more and Trump and cronies take home more.

    -He got some prisoners freed from NK. That's great for him, Pompeo and the prisoners. Hopefully, the summit goes well and progress will be made. That would be great for everyone, if we and NK hold up our respective ends of whatever agreement they come up with.

    -I don't care to type out the numerous embarrassing fails he's made. Egotistical, misogynistic, hot-headed, hypocritcal, racist, lying embarrassment that weakens our position and standing with the world. He's **** the bed more times than I count, and he keeps on getting a free pass from his base. The conservative party has fallen in line behind him and he's essentially neutered the senate and congress. Ryan and McConnell look incredibly weak and for what? Right now, the only winners are the wealthiest of Americans and the tax-payer leaches Trump has put in office, like himself, who golfs more and pockets more taxpayer dollars than probably any president in history, and his army of conmen like Pruitt.

    "Big, positive stuff"? Sounds like Trump... all hyperbole, no substance.
     
  13. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    #13
    The left doesn't know to come center when the right extends themselves too far. A center left candidate would wipe the boards in 2018 and 2020, but the left can't help themselves.
     
  14. RichardMZhlubb Contributor

    RichardMZhlubb

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    #14
    Hillary was center left.
     
  15. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    Okay they should also have a pulse.
     
  16. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    #16
    You don't counter Trump by inching toward him. That would be disingenuous. "I support the second amendment but". Time to throw your hands up or say "I'm not with it, repeal and replace". Socialism, capitalism... "capitalism" as it exists is failing. Remember those bonuses after the tax breaks? Just breadcrumbs. Unemployment is low, wages still stagnant. They're not paying more or bringing more jobs back. We are losing retail (already not the best of jobs) to online competition. Lots of retailers are closing hundreds of stores or going out of business altogether. Trump's idea to combat that is all hot air... charge Amazon more? What a moronic thing to say. They pay what the rates are. You can't single out a company and demand they pay more for the same service as others. Truly, you tell me what sane President would suggest that. Incredibly, out of this world bizarre. Luckily, as I said, hot air and nothing more.

    So really, you can harp about capitalism and second amendment and this and that, but unless its truly a center-left candidate - I would love a fiscally conservative social liberal - then it would just be for show and then business as usual.

    I will say they can't do any worse than the conservatives, who seem to still be running against Hillary.
     
  17. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    The hard left is energized to vote by their hate for Trump, the center just cares if they have a job and that the economy is going to do well. You aren't going to do yourself any favors by appeasing the hard left. You need Obama turned a couple dials toward the right to capture a huge voter base.

    Coming out yelling repeal 2nd amendment and socialism is going to guarantee a loss.
     
  18. GermanSuplex macrumors 6502a

    GermanSuplex

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    It's not even about yelling repeal, its just not parroting "I support the second amendment but... " Its just fake. Either support it and point out solid points, or don't. What's been done isn't working.

    Obama a couple dials to the right is just Obama to the right. I'd rather someone run on what they are, like Trump, who ran as an idiot and won. Just "moving to the right" for the sake of it - also like Trump - isn't going to energize the base, I don't think. Bernie didn't win, but he did energize the base.
     
  19. Zombie Acorn macrumors 65816

    Zombie Acorn

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    I agree if the left wants gun repeal they should be honest about it, but thats suicide for any votes outside their established left base.
     
  20. BigHonkingDeal macrumors 6502a

    BigHonkingDeal

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    #20
    If republicans keep the house this year than it's definitely worse than I thought..... I mean, come on :)
     
  21. Snoopy4 macrumors 6502a

    Snoopy4

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    #21
    Getting popcorn in advance.
     
  22. Zenithal macrumors 604

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    #22
    What's that blue dog's name? The fella who won a few months ago. The left should run him instead of radical lefties.
     
  23. Snoopy4 macrumors 6502a

    Snoopy4

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    Good luck finding one.
     
  24. Zenithal macrumors 604

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    Bernie might drop dead before 2020. I think they're good. Unless they decide to run Hillary again.
     
  25. BoxerGT2.5 macrumors 68000

    BoxerGT2.5

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    Connor Lamb? Another one just won who's a retired military pro gun democrat (throw back to the blue dogs), I can't for the life of me remember his name. The democratic party is doing the smart thing by allowing politics to be local, for now. Eventually they'll put these "blue dogs" up to the purity test and when they don't tick off all the boxes; pro-choice, anti-gun, pro-illegal immigration, etc they'll primary them in 2yrs if they do win the house in order to get someone in who falls in line with Pelosi. For right now it's 24/7 anti-Trump. It may change come November when these local boys have to run with the DNC national agenda around their neck.
     

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