Breaking: White House ceding Northern Syria to Turkey


LizKat

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let them rot, maybe this way we will engage in less stupid wars because we have too many morons willing to ally themselves with us.
Chuck Hagel once said that

"Alliances and international organizations should be understood as opportunities for leadership and a means to expand our influence, not as constraints on our power."​

Hagel was a Republican, a former US Senator from Nebraska, and yet served under a Democratic administration as Defense Secretary. He was not a fan of the surge in Iraq and resigned over disagreements with Obama with respect to Syria, being unhappy that the US was leaving its position undefined regarding tenure of Bashar Assad.

But I don't figure Chuck Hagel would see our just stalking out of a buffer zone in Syria and leaving innocents to die in an ensuing resumption of civil conflict as any sort of means to expand our influence.

In fact it's a constraint on the value of our word, and so on our potential power elsewhere --anywhere else-- to leave the distinct impression that the USA may just walk away any time our civilian leadership has domestic issues it can appease by giving ground in the international sphere.
 

DearthnVader

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Dec 17, 2015
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liberals are ok with 20-30 years of war, they need to wait until a democrat tells them is time to go.....THEN they will start yapping a different tune.
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not a single thing stopping you or others from joining their fight. we have plenty in MN that go fight for ISIS, everyone is free to travel to the country they wish and take up arms.
War isn't a political tool, it is the breakdown of diplomacy.

So, in this case, Trump's diplomacy failed, but that can be said of every President that ever stuck their hand in there bee hive that is the middle east.

Obama was more than willing to allow Saudi Arabia to wage war on civilians in Yemen. W's invasion of Iraq destabilized the entire region and our pullout under Obama lead to the rise of ISIS, then we were right back in.

No matter what we do there, politically, economical, diplomatically, or militarily, it's just going to bring about more death and suffering for someone, until these tribal wars play themselves out.
 

jkcerda

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War isn't a political tool, it is the breakdown of diplomacy.

So, in this case, Trump's diplomacy failed, but that can be said of every President that ever stuck their hand in there bee hive that is the middle east.

Obama was more than willing to allow Saudi Arabia to wage war on civilians in Yemen. W's invasion of Iraq destabilized the entire region and our pullout under Obama lead to the rise of ISIS, then we were right back in.

No matter what we do there, politically, economical, diplomatically, or militarily, it's just going to bring about more death and suffering for someone, until these tribal wars play themselves out.
exactly why I say stop giving them weapons & money, let them slaughter themselves like the savages they are and come back when they are out of the stone age.
 
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BaldiMac

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If the threat of our military isn't enough to convince Turkey (Turkey!) to not assist Russia in massacring our allies, than WTF is the point in 45's military spending spree?
 

yaxomoxay

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If the threat of our military isn't enough to convince Turkey (Turkey!) to not assist Russia in massacring our allies, than WTF is the in point.
It would be if it were a real threat. Erdogan, Putin, Assad, and even the American people know that it's not a real threat at the moment. We're not ready for another long war in the region. We're all tired of it. (Case in point, on Monday USA Today ran a front page piece on how long the Afghanistan war has been and it's psychological and practical cost...)
 

BaldiMac

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It would be if it were a real threat. Erdogan, Putin, Assad, and even the American people know that it's not a real threat at the moment. We're not ready for another long war in the region.
We don't need a long war to stop a Turkish invasion. We need diplomacy. Too bad our state department has been gutted in service of a president with massive conflicts of interest.
 
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NT1440

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May 18, 2008
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I'm not arguing we should get into more wars, only saying the manner in which we withdraw from conflicts in which we have engaged should not leave allies holding the bag when they held up their end of the deals we made with them even as allies of convenience. No one operates without allies in global affairs forever. It's hard to round up allies when one gains the reputation of abandoning them before conflict ends with a political settlement among the principals.

When we left Lebanon we came home and had a Reagan-commissioned investigation (one, by the way, not a slew of them) to learn as much as we could from the experience. The USA ended up increasing foreign aid to the Lebanese government in an effort to help minimize destabilization in the wake of our departure. But what are we doing in Syria now? Just walking away, full stop, so inviting our former allies there to align with Assad's government for their own protection, essentially leaving Iran-Syria and Russia-Turkey to hash out the fate of any humans caught between their pincers in the northeast. of Syria. That includes not only ISIS captives but the camps of their women and children, plus the civilians who live in the area yet again to suffer through another phase of civil war, this stage tripped by mere domestic political weakness of leaders in Turkey and the USA.

What was going on prior to this was an effective buffering against exactly this oncoming violence, by US-Turkey jointly working out safe zones near the Turkey-Syria border. In that strategy lay the underpinnings for serious work towards a political settlement. Now comes reversion to hostilities and the chaos of an expected but uneasy alliance between Syrian Kurds and the Assad government, dissolution of which later becomes again the ideal recruiting ground for terrorism in ongoing tribal conflict. The resumption of regional conflict is not something the USA or Turkey had wanted until both of their leaders could not think past personal desire for expedient relief in their domestic political problelms. In the chaos of the Turkish incursion and the attempts to repel it lies the next uprising of ISIS or a successor pot stirrer, strengthened by experience of erstwhile ISIS captives who are battle tested sponsors of terrorism.

It's all well and good to say we need to butt out of other people's business in the Middle East, but this is not the way to do it. The way to do it was what the USA was doing with Turkey before Trump opened his yap on the phone with Erdogan and cut what he thought was a good deal for him because it would appeal to his base as fulfillment of a campaign promise. All Trump and Erdogan together have done now is cause all the regional players in the Syrian conflict do a U-turn and rework in violence once again towards the ultimate realization that the conflict can only end in a political settlement. Their impatience and weakness at home only doubles down on the cost of this horrific war to civilians and soldiers alike. The two of them are a disgrace to the word "leader".
You say allies, I say vassal states.

The empire is the problem. I’m not willing to dance around what neoliberal geopolitics is at its core anymore.
 
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LizKat

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The massacre of our allies has begun.
The massacre of our informal allies by our formal allies since 1952 has begun.
Fixed it.
Since when does a formal ally not have the right to stand in the way or at least not assist when there is a disagreement about the rightness of a military maneuver?

By the way in case you have forgotten, Turkey declined to allow US forces to use its territory in launching the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

And need I mention the opposition to that invasion of our longstanding formal allies France, Canada, Germany, and New Zealand.

Your "fix" of @beaker7's post only demonstrates that longstanding allies can be wrong sometimes even if they are right other times.

A massacre essentially done to shore up against domestic weakness at home seems like something any reasonable and longstanding ally might object to. But that's not what te USA did in the case of Turkey electing to stage an invasion into northern Syria. Thanks to Trump we left the door open for Turkey to go ahead, even though Trump then laid in a boastful threat to Erdogan not to go too far. That was clearly something he said merely to buffer against immediate and bipartisan Congressional objections to his original signal to Erdogan.
 
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DearthnVader

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exactly why I say stop giving them weapons & money, let them slaughter themselves like the savages they are and come back when they are out of the stone age.
We've screwed the Kurds over so many times, you'd think they'd learn by now.

Erdogan fears the Kurds, I suppose that he fears that an autonomous region of armed Kurds on his boarder, a boarder to a Kurdish region in Turkey, could lead to unrest and the loss of control, making Turkey unstable and leading to a civil war.

This is where it gets tricky for us, as we have military interests in Turkey, and they have a very high strategic value.

If we block Erdogan from exerting force and death on the Kurds, then he simply moves closer to Russia, and that is the bigger threat to NATO.
 
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jkcerda

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Since when does a formal ally not have the right to stand in the way or at least not assist when there is a disagreement about the rightness of a military maneuver?

By the way in case you have forgotten, Turkey declined to allow US forces to use its territory in launching the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

And need I mention the opposition to that invasion of our longstanding formal allies France, Canada, Germany, and New Zealand.

Your "fix" of @beaker7's post only demonstrates that longstanding allies can be wrong sometimes even if they are right other times.

A massacre essentially done to shore up against domestic weakness at home seems like something any reasonable and longstanding ally might object to. But that's not what te USA did in the case of Turkey electing to stage an invasion into northern Syria. Thanks to Trump we left the door open for Turkey to go ahead, even though Trump then laid in a boastful threat to Erdogan not to go too far. That was clearly something he said merely to buffer against immediate and bipartisan Congressional objections to his original signal to Erdogan.
and thanks to Obams Turkeys terrorist were armed by our own GOVT, new thread on the matter.
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We've screwed the Kurds over so many times, you'd think they'd learn by now.

Erdogan fears the Kurds, I suppose that he fears that an autonomous region of armed Kurds on his boarder, a boarder to a Kurdish region in Turkey, could lead to unrest and the loss of control, making Turkey unstable and leading to a civil war.

This is where it gets tricky for us, as we have military interests in Turkey, and they have a very high strategic value.

If we block Erdogan from exerting force and death on the Kurds, then he simply moves closer to Russia, and that is the bigger threat to NATO.
yeah I have a new thread on it, it's a freaking mess.
 

LizKat

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and thanks to Obams Turkeys terrorist were armed by our own GOVT, new thread on the matter.
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yeah I have a new thread on it, it's a freaking mess.
What is a mess now is the focus of this thread. So it's good you realize that other matter belongs elsewhere. Nothing in that thread can detract from the mess Trump made in giving Erdogan even the hint of a green light for his current invasion of Syria.
 
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jkcerda

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What is a mess now is the focus of this thread. So it's good you realize that other matter belongs elsewhere. Nothing in that thread can detract from the mess Trump made in giving Erdogan even the hint of a green light for his current invasion of Syria.
ocluless is to blame for arming Turkeys terrorist.........
 

Peterkro

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Aug 17, 2004
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The Turkish leadership are scum and after the clearing out of any resistance to Erdogan in the military by carrying out his orders so are they.
As for Trump he's every bit as bad as Erdogan withdrawing the troops in Rojava and leaving the Kurds (who remember did all the heavy lifting to defeat Daesh) to the tender mercies of the Turkish military is a move that would have made Perfidious Albion blush at the height of their powers.

Typically the first strikes by the invading Turkish air force are against civilian targets.
 

yaxomoxay

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Mar 3, 2010
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Since when does a formal ally not have the right to stand in the way or at least not assist when there is a disagreement about the rightness of a military maneuver?

By the way in case you have forgotten, Turkey declined to allow US forces to use its territory in launching the 2003 invasion of Iraq.

And need I mention the opposition to that invasion of our longstanding formal allies France, Canada, Germany, and New Zealand.

Your "fix" of @beaker7's post only demonstrates that longstanding allies can be wrong sometimes even if they are right other times.

A massacre essentially done to shore up against domestic weakness at home seems like something any reasonable and longstanding ally might object to. But that's not what te USA did in the case of Turkey electing to stage an invasion into northern Syria. Thanks to Trump we left the door open for Turkey to go ahead, even though Trump then laid in a boastful threat to Erdogan not to go too far. That was clearly something he said merely to buffer against immediate and bipartisan Congressional objections to his original signal to Erdogan.
I don't disagree with you. In general, I'd side by what you're saying. The problem I see is structural in two ways. We certainly have the right to stand in the way of who and what we want, but there are consequences for it. I am simply challenging the idea that we're ready to pay for such possible consequences.
 

DearthnVader

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What is a mess now is the focus of this thread. So it's good you realize that other matter belongs elsewhere. Nothing in that thread can detract from the mess Trump made in giving Erdogan even the hint of a green light for his current invasion of Syria.
What was the alternative ?

Illegally placing US troops as human shields in Syria?

Nothing short of that was going to stop Erdogan.

How long would that last, in for a penny in for a pound, it's Korea all over again, only this time we are placing military human shields in a nation that is hostile to us.
 
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yaxomoxay

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According to whom? Your arguing a false dichotomy.
It's obviously speculation, but thinking that Erdogan would do the reasonable thing (not invade) because of 500 soldiers after he prepared for a year, after he choked the military to have them as faithful as possible, after all the political issues both domestic and international is simply betting the life of our 500 soldiers.
 
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