Brexit already looks like a winner

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by Benjamin Frost, Jul 19, 2016.

  1. Benjamin Frost Suspended

    Benjamin Frost

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    #1
    Both main stock indices are higher than they were a month ago. The pound has regained much of its drop post-Brexit and is only moderately lower. Osborne, the worst scaremonger of the Remain camp has been fired. Carney (or is it Carny?), the head of the Bank of England, was forced into keeping interest rates the same, and his head is surely for the chop soon. May has expressed a desire to see the end of quantitative easing. She also wants higher interest rates and punitive measures for big business. Immigration will be strictly controlled and our borders less open. May wants to concentrate on helping the lower and middle classes and help the poor.

    All these things are music to my ears. With her ministerial appointments and opening speech, Theresa May has impressed deeply. Long may she lead Great Britain and the United Kingdom with an iron fist.
     
  2. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

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    Probably a lot of the recovery has to do with questions over if it will happen at all and hopes that the UK will come to its senses and not do it since triggering article 50 keeps getting delayed. Wait to see what happens when/if the UK actually starts the process of leaving, it won't be pretty. As of right now the UK is still an EU member state, and negotiations for leaving aren't likely to start this year if they start at all.
     
  3. smallcoffee macrumors 6502a

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    #3
    I think everybody is resigned to the fact that the UK is leaving, and it's not the end of the world.
     
  4. ActionableMango, Jul 19, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2016

    ActionableMango macrumors 604

    ActionableMango

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    #4
    Those are some serious rose-colored glasses you are wearing.

    upload_2016-7-19_15-35-50.png

    Look, I bought pounds. I want it to go up. There is no way to interpret this as having regained "much" of its drop post-Brexit. To even show a tiny gain you have to cherry pick data points.
     
  5. Technarchy macrumors 603

    Technarchy

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    #5
    It's way way too early. Pro and Anti just need to chill for awhile before solidifying their opinion.
     
  6. sim667 macrumors 65816

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    #6
    Source?
     
  7. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #7
    The U.K. Currency has dropped a lot so you'd expect the stocks to have gone up.
    --- Post Merged, Jul 20, 2016 ---
    I don't think that's true at all.
     
  8. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #8
    This is likely because the hype is going to settle down. If UK drops it tax rates to become competitive and finishes off the Brexit, they'll have a nice break out. It's really the other side that should worry. Banks in Italy are in deep trouble, France and Greece are ... well France and Greece :D... Germany shouldn't shoulder the whole thing, but they might if they can find enough of a return.

    It's actually very refreshing to see the England has enough class to step down in the best interest of the people and let the new crew come in and take over.

    With most of the world facing a slowdown, UK could really knock it out of the ball park by offering an environment that easily become the next high tech VC capital of the world and engage in direct trade with India and Asia.

    This is really a battle over control. Some want a one world government and others want local control over their own people. This issue was just discussed during the coverage of the GOP convention. I think PBS was talking about it. It's really odd to hear them openly discuss things that were conspiracy theories years ago. Years ago there were all kinds of conspiracy theories about a global government take over and now it's here. It was denied for so long, and now they are talking about it openly.

    It's even more amazing that so many people are willing to give up control of their country to a body they can't elect. The EU rules trump the laws of nations and the people votes really don't count any more. Hard to think that people actually want that.
     
  9. smallcoffee macrumors 6502a

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    Doesn't work that way.

    Yeah the UK left and many things will change. Some good, some bad. It'll be annoyingly difficult to move around in the EU now versus before. Might lose some business. But it's not like the UK is going to sink into the sea or become a third world country. Time moves on.
     
  10. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #10
    It does. The FTSE is indexed in pounds.
     
  11. smallcoffee macrumors 6502a

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    I agree with this. Even in the US we have this problem right now where people in, say, North Dakota feel like people in Florida are making laws for them. I think the US would be better off as about 6-7 separate countries with a common mutual defense and open boarders treaty.
     
  12. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #12
    The U.K. Has had an unbinding vote on exit. We may well leave and join the EEA or we may not leave at all. Who knows what will happen.
     
  13. smallcoffee macrumors 6502a

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    Oh really? Wow that's so shocking.

    It doesn't work that way because that's an incredibly simplistic view of how markets work. In fact, if you think about it, you're basically arguing that there's a lot of faith in a recovery. If you're buying stocks "because the pound is cheap" than you would be doing so because you expect the value of those stocks or the £ to be higher than when you bought them.
     
  14. juanm macrumors 65816

    juanm

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    #14
    The UK didn't even leave yet......
     
  15. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #15
    The companies in the FTSE 100 make 3/4 of their profits abroad and the FTSE 250 make 1/2 of their profits abroad. In pounds those have risen.
     
  16. VulchR macrumors 68020

    VulchR

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    #16
    Don't forget that uncertainty about Brexit may have very well suppressed markets in advance of the vote on the referendum. The simple fact is that it is very hard to fathom what controls markets, but in any case it's too early to tell what the long-term impact of this will be. As others have noted above, the UK hasn't even left the EU yet. Brexit is an experiment. An uncontrolled experiment...

    Frankly, I'd be happy if the UK economy managed to stay as prosperous as it currently is in spite of Brexit, but I doubt it will.
     
  17. 617aircav Suspended

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    #17
    It's a winner just based on the facts the foreigners are not making laws for a sovereign nation.
     
  18. smallcoffee macrumors 6502a

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    Ok?
    It's going to happen. And everybody has reacted as though it already happened. The worst is over. It's just a matter of a slow and managed dismantling.
     
  19. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #19
    How do you know?
     
  20. smallcoffee macrumors 6502a

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    #20
    Because as things go, the dramatic tends to be all fluff. It's in everybody's interest to make sure this is managed and controlled because markets > everything. Instability is bad for everybody.

    The only thing that's going to really suck is the free movement of workers. But, well, the rest of the world manages so the UK can too.
     
  21. Eraserhead, Jul 20, 2016
    Last edited: Jul 20, 2016

    Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #21
    The currency dropping through the floor and staying there isn't "all fluff"...

    Neither say is the financial crisis in Greece.
     
  22. smallcoffee macrumors 6502a

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    Well it helps exports and tourism. But the drop was because of the initial reaction to the Brexit. It'll go back up. Maybe not to historic highs but high enough. It was artificially buoyed by the Euro anyway.

    But hey, maybe you should have adopted the Euro. The UK always wanted the benefits of the EU without the commitments.
     
  23. 1458279 Suspended

    1458279

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    #23
    I'm in California and it pisses me off that our vote never counts. It's always swing states, OH, FL, etc... California has the most voters, the largest economy and no say in the vote. How is that fair?

    I'm not sure how many countries, 6/7 sounds fine, I'd like to see near open trade and some basic common laws might be good but end the federal taxes and let each country compete for businesses.

    From a moral stand point it's the way things should be. We've got to stop the BS where 1/2 the nation has to follow the other 1/2 and they hate each other. It just makes everyone's live painful. We all have to suffer when the national economic policies are bad and there's few places left to go where you have economic freedom.

    I really hope UK knocks this out of the park and send the world a message. The EU has been a flop. It's socialism at it's worse.
     
  24. smallcoffee macrumors 6502a

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    #24
    Yup. The government which governs locally governs best
     
  25. rdowns macrumors Penryn

    rdowns

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    #25
    Blah, blah, blah. It's all ******** until Article 50 is invoked.
     

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