brexit plunges England towards deep recession

dogslobber

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http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39743129

Well what we all said is now starting to take shape. It is insane when you think of it that a Daily Mail educated public votes to leave the EU like lemmings walking off the cliffs of Dover. This will make the crash of 2008 seem like a walk in the park as I reckon any which way we think of it will not even go part way to discuss it.

As us USAians are finding out, you get what you voted for.
 

jkcerda

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The main drag on the service industry, which accounts for about 78% of the UK economy, came from the hotels, restaurants and the distributions sector, which fell by 0.5%, as increasing prices from rising inflation applied the brakes to retail trade
Wait till automation hits the kiosk at Mcadonalds and other fast food service areas
 

darksithpro

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http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39743129

Well what we all said is now starting to take shape. It is insane when you think of it that a Daily Mail educated public votes to leave the EU like lemmings walking off the cliffs of Dover. This will make the crash of 2008 seem like a walk in the park as I reckon any which way we think of it will not even go part way to discuss it.

As us USAians are finding out, you get what you voted for.

Never was a fan of the European Union. It became a political Union with the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels in charge of national sovereignty of EU members. Open borders, and an influx of millions of displaced Muslim immigrants creates an unstable atmosphere of potential terrorism. It's a total disaster ripe for chaos and terrorism. EU countries need to claim back their independence and control their borders, for the sake of their national security.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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And just then, when the final sun was to set, Ringo and Paul reunited and lifted the spirits and her majesty's island kingdom out of the abyss. Bully for you, my lads. Bully for us all!
 
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Zedcars

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http://www.bbc.com/news/business-39743129

Well what we all said is now starting to take shape. It is insane when you think of it that a Daily Mail educated public votes to leave the EU like lemmings walking off the cliffs of Dover. This will make the crash of 2008 seem like a walk in the park as I reckon any which way we think of it will not even go part way to discuss it.

As us USAians are finding out, you get what you voted for.
I'm a remainer. But I fail to see the word 'recession' mentioned once in that article, let alone a deep one. It could well occur, but surely the time to declare it as such is when it happens, or there is real evidence that it is imminent. Otherwise you are just perceived as a doom-monguring pessimist.
 
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weckart

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Yet our economy grew 0.3% in the first quarter of 2017. Strange.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/www.bbc.co.uk/news/amp/39743129
That was predictable given the fall in the pound coupled with the still tariff-free trade within the EU but that fillip was only going to last until price inflation worked through the supply side of things.

At the moment, it is too early to say exactly how Brexit is going to play out, especially with a seemingly tactical election ahead but business abhors uncertainty, so fasten your boots. We are living in interesting times.
 
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0098386

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Never was a fan of the European Union. It became a political Union with the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels in charge of national sovereignty of EU members. Open borders, and an influx of millions of displaced Muslim immigrants creates an unstable atmosphere of potential terrorism. It's a total disaster ripe for chaos and terrorism. EU countries need to claim back their independence and control their borders, for the sake of their national security.
Hey, just a correction but those in power were elected into it.
 

juanm

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Hey, just a correction but those in power were elected into it.
It's the new thing: show complete lack of interest in politics, not vote, and then complain their representatives were not elected.

One of the necessary measures if the EU is to prevail is classes from age 14-15 explaining its inner workings, consequences, etc. Also, harmonisation of the local politics in each country.
[doublepost=1493460606][/doublepost]
Wait till automation hits the kiosk at Mcadonalds and other fast food service areas
It's already here. One year ago, most supermarkets in London had the choice (and I always chose the human cashier). Now, where I shop I usually only find only automated checkout tills with just one person to assist.
 

Bug-Creator

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Yet our economy grew 0.3% in the first quarter of 2017. Strange.
That would be 1.2% if continued over the full year, nothing to cheer about.

Far more interesting is tha the EU plans to finish negotiating only the divorce before even talking about details for the future.
Puts a truckload of pressure on Ms May cos failing or just delaying here could lead to falling back to WTO rules.
 

dogslobber

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Never was a fan of the European Union. It became a political Union with the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels in charge of national sovereignty of EU members. Open borders, and an influx of millions of displaced Muslim immigrants creates an unstable atmosphere of potential terrorism. It's a total disaster ripe for chaos and terrorism. EU countries need to claim back their independence and control their borders, for the sake of their national security.
The EU is made up of its MEPs elected by their constituents throughout Europe. Those "unelected bureaucrats" you read about in the Daily Mail are civil servants like any government has, including the English government. Nothing different.
[doublepost=1493477576][/doublepost]
Yet our economy grew 0.3% in the first quarter of 2017. Strange.
I think Thatcher referred to it as a "slowdown in the growth of the economy" before the country plunged into recession in the 80s. Let's not kid ourselves what's happening and why it's happening.
[doublepost=1493477686][/doublepost]
That was predictable given the fall in the pound coupled with the still tariff-free trade within the EU but that fillip was only going to last until price inflation worked through the supply side of things.
Inflation will probably hit double digits in the next couple of years. Living standards are going to fall for most normal people who only have income in English roubles.
[doublepost=1493477724][/doublepost]
Just realised it's only 'England' that is bound for deep recession according to the thread title. The rest of the UK is fine, phew...
England == UK. I think we've had this conversation before.
 
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The-Real-Deal82

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England == UK. I think we've had this conversation before.
So say UK then rather than picking one country within it. The recession would affect the whole of the United Kingdom, not just England.

It's bad enough when Americans refer to us as 'England' because half the time they have no idea what the UK is. Let's not promote bad habits.
 

Rigby

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Never was a fan of the European Union. It became a political Union with the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels in charge of national sovereignty of EU members.
It is really sad that this nonsense is still being repeated. The main legislative and supervisory bodies of the EU are the European Parliament (directly elected by European voters) and the European Council (heads of state democratically elected in their respective countries). Whatever you think the EU has "forced" on you, your own politicians were part of it. The one positive side of Brexit is that soon the British politicians will no longer be able to blame their own failings on the EU.
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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Hey, just a correction but those in power were elected into it.
Voting for somebody isn't an across the board endorsement of all their planned policies. Some people voted for Trump simply because he acknowledged their existence when other politicians wouldn't, which is sad.

What people care about most is good paying jobs, and I don't know what other world leaders are doing, but Trump is attempting to achieve this through some Rube Goldberg polices that might result in more good paying jobs. Probably won't.

Job growth seems to be spurred by short term stock market speculation that benefits the rich and then when it unsurprisingly collapses everybody else gets hosed.
 

VulchR

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Well, recession or not (who can see the future?), what has happened due to inflation arising from the falling £ has wiped out the growth in wage increases, for Brexiters and Remainers (like me :mad:) alike. Also, the banks are moving personnel out of the UK, so there is reason to believe that tax receipts in the UK will go down.

Who'd thought that cutting the UK off one of the world's largest integrated markets would cause economic repercussions in the UK? What could possibly go wrong?
 
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niploteksi

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Dec 11, 2016
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Never was a fan of the European Union. It became a political Union with the unelected bureaucrats in Brussels in charge of national sovereignty of EU members. Open borders, and an influx of millions of displaced Muslim immigrants creates an unstable atmosphere of potential terrorism. It's a total disaster ripe for chaos and terrorism. EU countries need to claim back their independence and control their borders, for the sake of their national security.
It's supposed to be a political union... that was kind of the whole deal with starting it. It was formed because ideas like yours were bad for Europe and faraway places like the US.

So say UK then rather than picking one country within it. The recession would affect the whole of the United Kingdom, not just England.

It's bad enough when Americans refer to us as 'England' because half the time they have no idea what the UK is. Let's not promote bad habits.
England First? Too bad that the consequences of Brexit are not going to be contained by a body of water. We are all in for a bit of a cold dip I suppose.
 

jkcerda

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It's the new thing: show complete lack of interest in politics, not vote, and then complain their representatives were not elected.

One of the necessary measures if the EU is to prevail is classes from age 14-15 explaining its inner workings, consequences, etc. Also, harmonisation of the local politics in each country.
[doublepost=1493460606][/doublepost]
It's already here. One year ago, most supermarkets in London had the choice (and I always chose the human cashier). Now, where I shop I usually only find only automated checkout tills with just one person to assist.
So this could be due to the kiosk and not brexit
 

Chew Toy McCoy

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[doublepost=1493460606][/doublepost]
It's already here. One year ago, most supermarkets in London had the choice (and I always chose the human cashier). Now, where I shop I usually only find only automated checkout tills with just one person to assist.

You know what irritates me to no end? I'm going to tell you. Able bodied people who are too lazy or clueless to bag their own groceries when a bagger isn't available. They just stand there staring into space or flipping through their phone while the cashier does it. Worse still when its a couple and they are both just standing there dur dur dur. You're not saving somebody's job. You're just holding up the line.
 

juanm

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So this could be due to the kiosk and not brexit
I never said it was due to Brexit (but it's not going to help either). Brexit hasn't happened yet, it'll still take two years or so. I live in the UK, and all I see is a bubble that dwarves the one I saw grow and then burst in Spain in the 2000s.

Those who really think Brexit (or any old fashioned obsolete protectionism à la Trump) will magically turn back the hands of time to a simpler age where everybody had a job are delusional. Globalisation and automation are part of progress, and they have both good and bad consequences, and you cannot fight them. What you can do is anticipate the bad, and do your best to cover your back (education, investments, etc).
[doublepost=1493491741][/doublepost]
You know what irritates me to no end? I'm going to tell you. Able bodied people who are too lazy or clueless to bag their own groceries when a bagger isn't available. They just stand there staring into space or flipping through their phone while the cashier does it. Worse still when its a couple and they are both just standing there dur dur dur. You're not saving somebody's job. You're just holding up the line.
I'm a grown up, I bag my own groceries. I've never seen a bagger, for me it's like a elevator operator. I don't know in the US, but in every country I've lived, cashiers are not expected to bag your groceries. The only exception is when the client is unable to (old person) or when the client is struggling to keep up with the cashier, and at the end he/she helps you to bag the last items so you're out of the way faster.

The only high profile politician here in the UK I've heard bring up the danger of automation is Nick Clegg in this article:

http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-this-is-the-future-the-unstoppable-march-of-machines-a3447611.html

Nick Clegg said:
This is the future: the unstoppable march of machines
What will Trump and May do as even white-collar jobs look set to be eradicated by Artificial Intelligence?

There’s a lot to worry about these days: hard Brexit, Trump’s protectionism, Diego Costa’s future at Chelsea, Putin’s manoeuvres, conflict in the South China Sea, Boris Johnson’s next gaffe, climate change.

But I want you to spare a thought for US truck drivers. Because what happens to them might provide a better clue to what happens next in the world than even this Friday’s summit between Theresa May and Donald Trump.

According to one recent report, truck driving and related jobs employ more people than any other job in 29 out of America’s 50 states. It is estimated that there are 8.7 million trucking-related jobs in the US. It is one of the few jobs that still attracts a fairly decent income — about $40,000 (£32,000) a year — without requiring higher academic qualifications. In other words, it’s a precious ingredient in the American Dream: a dependable job, accessible to everyone.

Except it might soon be extinct. On May 6, 2015 in Nevada, a huge, shiny Daimler truck became the first licensed self-driving truck to hit the American highways as part of a massive testing programme before self-driving trucks are rolled out nationwide. The technology is not very complicated: radars, cameras and some straightforward software. It is a question of when, not if, American highways will be crisscrossed by thousands of similar self-driving trucks.

Theresa May holds regional Cabinet meeting on industry Brexit plan
And what then for the millions of truck drivers, their families and their communities? An economic earthquake, that’s what, which could leave millions of people out of work. It is not as if technology hasn’t devastated workers before: a century ago, around a third of workers in America had jobs in agriculture; today it is between one and two per cent.

But the difference is that as machines ploughed, threshed and harvested the fields instead of the human hand, new jobs opened up in cities and factories. As technology destroyed jobs in one community, it invariably created more in others. So the technological revolutions of the past caused a mass migration from the countryside to urban areas.

The coming technological earthquake risks doing something altogether more radical: eliminating the need for humans to do a vast array of jobs altogether. As one commentator has declared, “software is eating the world”.

If you think this sounds alarmist, consider this: the Nomura Research Institute and academics from Oxford University estimate that almost half of all jobs in Japan could be done by robots in 20 years’ time. And the astonishing speed with which Artificial Intelligence (AI) is advancing is taking even the most pointy-headed scientists by surprise: in March 2016 in Seoul, Google’s AI computer beat Lee Sedol, the world’s No 1 Go player, four games to one. Go is an ancient board game which originated in China 2,500 years ago, in which the number of board positions is estimated to be greater than the number of atoms in the universe.

Google’s team from its DeepMind division did not expect AI to adapt and win as ruthlessly as it did. David Ormerod, an American commentator, said that watching AI outmanoeuvre Sedol made him feel “physically unwell”. He knew he was watching a seminal moment in the victory of machines over humans.

Machines that know how to adapt, innovate and improve what they do — “machine learning” — highlight something qualitatively new about the impending technological revolution: machines will not only replace humans in performing straightforward tasks such as driving a truck, they could hollow out professional jobs, too, such as book-keeping, accountancy and even the law. Blue-collar factory workers were the first to suffer obsolescence brought about by machines. But soon white-collar professionals will also be elbowed aside by the unforgiving effects of machines that can learn for themselves.

Much of the rage that propelled Donald Trump to the inauguration stage on Capitol Hill last Friday was fuelled by angry blue-collar workers threatened by technological change. His answer is the deeply misguided reflex of populists down the ages: build walls, yell “my country first” and impose protectionist barriers against products from abroad. But he had nothing to say about the bigger, unstoppable technological change just around the corner. Nor, I safely predict, will Theresa May’s new Brexit industrial strategy have much to say either.

AI is not only rendering people’s jobs obsolete, it exposes the hopeless parochialism of a political class obsessed with fighting yesterday’s battles, whether it’s car imports from Mexico or bureaucrats in Brussels.

No wonder the leaders of Silicon Valley who gathered in Davos last week were reported to be fretting. They realise, rightly, that there’s a risk they will be vilified, as the bankers were after the financial crisis. Their ingenious inventions not only displace jobs, they will also generate vast profits for the tech companies. Widespread unemployment combined with new concentrations of wealth is a guarantee of more political and social unrest. So the Silicon Valley crowd, to their credit, are trying to find a way of squaring the circle: how can people lead fulfilled lives if there are fewer and fewer jobs to go round?

Their favoured solution is to give everyone a “universal basic income” — whether they have a job or not. The idea, or a variant of it, is being piloted in Finland and the Netherlands. It has a seductive simplicity to it: if machines will render many of us idle, we might as well live comfortably from the profits they produce. But I also have an old- fashioned belief in the importance of work to people’s sense of self-esteem and happiness. A society that eradicates poverty at the cost of mass worklessness is not without its problems.

Technological change cannot be stopped. The benefits will be enormous, from better medical diagnoses to fewer traffic jams. How we ensure Artificial Intelligence will enhance, not hollow out, society is one of the greatest challenges of our time. Neither Trump’s protectionism nor May’s hard Brexit, coming together this Friday, provide any answers.
You're going to have in the span of a few years: the actual consequences of Brexit, the housing/construction bubble will explode, and automation will keep on speeding up. Good luck.
 
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Bug-Creator

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England==UK?

Something good in England -> english
Something good in Wales or Scotland -> british
Something bad in Scotland -> skirt wearing weirdo
Something bad in England -> european
 

weckart

macrumors 601
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England==UK?

Something good in England -> english
Something good in Wales or Scotland -> british
Something bad in Scotland -> skirt wearing weirdo
Something bad in England -> european
To be fair, Germany is the worst offender when it comes to calling the UK England.