Can either make it to 270 votes? (clickable link to simulation)

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by thermodynamic, Jul 12, 2016.

  1. thermodynamic Suspended

    thermodynamic

    Joined:
    May 3, 2009
    Location:
    USA
    #1
    [​IMG]


    http://www.cnn.com/election/interactive-electoral-college-map/



    Awful lot of swing states. If not 270 then does the one with the highest count win or does the sitting President or Congress get to decide? Or a citizenry revote?!
     
  2. zioxide macrumors 603

    zioxide

    Joined:
    Dec 11, 2006
    #2
    If nobody gets to 270 the House votes for the Pres and the Senate votes for VP if I remember correctly.

    Which means Paul Ryan would likely nominate and vote for Paul Ryan.
     
  3. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2015
    Location:
    Red Springs, NC
    #3
    They have to pick from people on the ballot.

    In 1824 General Andrew Jackson won the popular vote and most of the electoral votes, but didn't have enough electoral votes to win the Presidency.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_election,_1824
     
  4. mrkramer macrumors 603

    mrkramer

    Joined:
    Jul 11, 2006
    Location:
    Somewhere
    #4
    Yes, but if they can't find a compromise candidate and the Senate is deadlocked which is likely the Speaker of the house is third in line for the presidency and becomes the acting president. That said Johnson is the only third party candidate that I can see getting enough disgruntled voters to turn a state for a third party, and he would be more likely to pull electoral votes from the safe Republican column than hurt Hillary by flipping a blue state.

    I think the most Clinton would lose to a third party candidate would be Vermont if enough Sanders supporters go for Stein, but that's not too likely since most of them seem to be going over to her. If a third party is going to have a big effect on the election it won't be by actually winning a state, it would probably be if Gary Johnson pulls enough votes from Trump that a state like Texas goes blue.
     
  5. DearthnVader macrumors regular

    DearthnVader

    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2015
    Location:
    Red Springs, NC
    #5
    Most of the polls in a four way race add to Trump from a two way race with Clinton.
     
  6. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2004
    Location:
    Catskill Mountains
    #6
    Please... we already did the one where five guys picked the prez, God forbid we do the one where all the dead white guys give us the equivalent of another hanging chad situation. :eek:

    Barring either one of the two major party candidates getting indicted or dropping out for lack of interest, Clinton takes it easily. Even where the GOP should win big or be in a swing situation, Trump has insulted too many potential voters, e.g., Colorado, Michigan as well as some of their political leaders (e.g, Arizona). This has already dawned on the GOP honchos. Soon it will dawn on the fence sitters as well.

    Evan Bayh just decided to go for his old seat in the Senate, putting Indiana in the lean column for the Dems with a very fat campaign account. So we have a former incumbent running for a retiring incumbent's seat. Looks good for the Dems. Meanwhile Mike Pence might be Trump's VP pick, so some quick pick substitute (July 15 the deadline) then must run for Pence's slot as governor against the 2012 opponent who has both name recognition and former speaker of the state assembly credentials. Bayh and the Dem John Gregg running for governor again will both have upwards coattails for HRC when the fence-sitting Dems and independent voters think about it.

    So there maybe goes Indiana at the national level suddenly turning deep purple from solid red? Lotta slippin' and slidin' starting to happen.

    The GOP has so much on its plate trying to hold the Senate that they'll give up on trying to hold Trump's hand through his impending defeat even before the Republicans' convention traffic, such as it may be, dissipates. They know the Senate is more important in 2016 but stuff like Bayh coming off the bench keeps happening. What to do, what to do... I can hardly wait to see what happens at the GOP convention. It could be pretty tepid. Or pretty wild.
     
  7. MadeTheSwitch macrumors 6502a

    MadeTheSwitch

    Joined:
    Apr 20, 2009
    #7
    I can't imagine it being tepid. At the very least I expect to hear some boos for the presumptive nominee. I can't recall a time in my life that I have seen that at a convention.
     
  8. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2004
    Location:
    Catskill Mountains
    #8
    Guess we should stay tuned. Saw this in Politico.

    Ted Cruz to meet with secretive conservative group in Cleveland


    Excerpt:

    Ted Cruz is making an extra trip to Cleveland to address a closed-door meeting of influential conservative leaders this Friday ahead of the Republican National Convention, according to four people familiar with his plans.

    Cruz will speak to a gathering of the Council for National Policy, a secretive group of conservative activists, many of whom backed the Texas senator in his failed presidential bid earlier this year.
    Since Cruz agreed to speak at the convention, but has not yet said he would endorse Trump, he could just be getting some input from this group. They could be helpful to him in 2020 so it makes sense for him to be guided to some extent on their preferences for particular content in his convention speech.

    Or... since he's making a point of not attending the RNC meetings, sort of recusing himself from having any visible part in any changes the rules committee might make... maybe something's up. The people he's meeting with are among those who had urged endorsement of Cruz as a way of getting behind one conservative candidate early instead of splitting (again) between the farther right and somewhat more moderate candidates.

    It's interesting to me that evangelical leaders and some of the evangelical voters seem divided regarding Trump. It's almost like the "correct" stances on social issues have receded for the populists among the parishioners, whereas the elders of their faith are saying wait a minute these issues are the whole point of having become advocates of politics in the pulpit. And Trump? He's not proving reliable on the stump regarding any issues.

    It would seem a rather dangerous moment for the future of what remains of the "religious right". Some of their leaders are in the group that Cruz will meet with.
     
  9. SusanK macrumors 68000

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2012
    #9
    Some of the delegates are already arriving. Next week will be a trip here. I hope it's uneventful.
     
  10. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

    Joined:
    Aug 5, 2004
    Location:
    Catskill Mountains
    #10
    So since your gov finds that he is unfortunately too busy to attend the convention... ?

    Where's Kasich actually going to be hanging out, I wonder.
     
  11. SusanK macrumors 68000

    Joined:
    Oct 9, 2012
    #11
    I don't acknowledge Kasich.
     

Share This Page