Can Jeremy Corbyn really win and will it spell the end of Labour?

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by aaronvan, Sep 2, 2015.

  1. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #1
    Some points that his Labour opponents are making:

    1. Too friendly with Hamas.
    2. Against bombing ISIS.
    3. Quick to defend Putin.
    4. Stridently anti-monarchist
    5. Believes printing money creates wealth.

    Is there any scenario where Jeremy Corbyn moves into #10? I'd love to hear our U.K friends opine on this.
     
  2. zin macrumors 6502

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    #2
    He's against bombing ISIS because he doesn't think it will work. Not that I agree with him, I think it is working if the objective is to destroy ISIS, but I can't say he'd be wrong in terms of the long term effects on Iraq. We already have a messed up intervention with proof that things can get worse.

    Has he actually defended Putin? The most I've read is that he criticised the expansion of NATO ever closer to Russia's borders.

    Is being anti-monarchist a "bad" position? He can choose to think whatever he likes about that.

    I am a Labour Party member and gave my first vote to Andy Burnham. Corbyn got my second vote. There are too many things that I disagree with him over but I still wanted to recognise his outspoken and honest discussions. Especially on defence, the man is nothing more than a fairy. I think nuclear disarmament is wrong and I'm not even sure he would secure a majority if it were ever voted on.

    He stated he would nationalise certain industries without due compensation to the current owners. Whilst I would support public ownership of some things, seizure is unfair and I'm pretty sure in violation of EU law.

    If he wins the leadership I'm sure he would be clobbered by the press, much more than Ed Miliband, who compared to Corbyn is a venture capitalist.
     
  3. firestarter macrumors 603

    firestarter

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    #3
    > Can Jeremy Corbyn really win and will it spell the end of Labour?

    Yes, he can win leadership certainly. People don't join the Labour party to mess around with social democracy - they hanker after a truly socialist leader! Corbyn is their poster boy, and I think he's really likely to take the leadership.

    Can he get into number 10? Unlikely

    You've given some reasons that his opponents will be able to drag him down; but I also think he's going to fail from a temperamental standpoint. I just don't think he's cut out to be a leader, and even less to lead the party into office.

    I think a space for him has opened up, since serious leadership candidates have assumed Labour will loose 2020 and they don't want to waste a shot at power. So we have a lineup of second-raters and Corbyn's authenticity and idealism shines through.

    I can't see any happy ways out of this situation for Labour. If he wins, he risks antagonising and splitting the 'Blairites' away from the main party. If he looses, or is deposed before the next election, he'll carry with him a large number of disaffected supporters who were pinning their hopes on him.
     
  4. Eraserhead, Sep 2, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 2, 2015

    Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #4
    If the Conservatives lose more than 20-30 or so seats we will have a left wing government in 2020. It may be a Labour-SNP alliance, but still.

    And 20-25 seats changing hands is typical since World War II.
     
  5. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #5
    I would be very surprised if a Old Hard Left political party could take power in a modern European country.

    Since the 1980's it's been the individualist outlook, and not societies outlook, which has decided the out come of any election.
    Tony Blair was a middle of the road socialist, with large capitalist leanings.

    That is not to say that the Left is dead and buried but it must adapt to take in peoples aspirations, the old days of the pure class war are over.
     
  6. unlinked macrumors 6502a

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    #6
    I don't know about hard left but giving free stuff to people still seems pretty popular where I am.
     
  7. juanm, Sep 3, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2015

    juanm macrumors 65816

    juanm

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    #7
    That's what European Right wingers have tried to do (mostly successfully) for the last twenty years: convincing people who should be voting to the left that if they vote to the right, they too will have multiple BMWs, a nice house, etc. That model has failed. Sure, it still works in some places, but people are realising that after all, it'a just a matter of time before the all out capitalistic model of the 90s-00s will eventually leave them out of the loop and on their own.

    Like it or not, it's not the old left that's reviving, it's simply the left, that has remembered why it existed in the first place. Corbyn, Sanders, might be old themselves, but it's got nothing to do with age, as long as they have a sense of statesmanship, and are aware of the challenges we face now. Let's see how this plays out in France (where Hollande is a perfect example of the Gauche Caviar) and Germany. Mélenchon in France, however, is someone I'd place in the old left category: someone who still has ideals, but has been incapable of understanding how people communicate today and to adapt his message.

    I don't agree with Corbyn on everything, but I think it's politically healthy to have a true left, in order to assure real balance in the L-R spectrum. His Labour opponents are the traitors here, completely detached of the ideals they were supposed to defend, who prefer to attack those in their own ranks who defend them, rather than the powers they are supposed to fight. The media love reducing everything to simple sentences, but the full point Corbyn makes is that ISIS will not be defeated just by bombing, but by isolating them, preventing them to sell oil, so it's not just that he's "against bombing ISIS". In that regard he's totally right, that's what should be done, but as long as Turkey won't cooperate, we won't be able to do that, and the least we can do is at least bombing them to help the more moderate and secular rebels.
     
  8. jeremy h, Sep 3, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2015

    jeremy h macrumors 6502

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    #8
    I think the Labour party have to now vote Corbyn in. To do otherwise would spilt the party - possibly permanently. There is so much expectation among the UK left as to what he'll achieve and how he'll re-position UK politics that not to test him will be grave mistake.

    Personally, I think he'll be a disappointment.

    One of the greatest errors that the 'harder' UK left have made in the past 40 years is a an arrogant assumption that they 'understand' the working class and the lower aspirational middle classes from where the movement was born. Scratch below the surface of many a hard left activist here in the UK (who proclaims their working class credentials loudly) and you'll generally find an inverted snob embarrassed about their middle class origins. (Not that that is anything to be embarrassed about). The right understand this and in the 70's and 80's firmly captured the true working class and lower middle classes while the left were devoting their attention to the social advancement causes of special interest groups beloved of the educated middle class from which they now drew their support. For example in the great UK TV comedy Only Fools and Horses the fact that Del Boy lived in a grim tower block called Nelson Mandela House always generated a laugh. Our Labour council in the 80's renamed some grim estates after towns in Nicaragua to show working class solidarity. The people on those estates didn't want solidarity - they wanted to buy their own home.

    For people to vote in really radical policies then the majority of the electorate must want radical change. They most be so up against it that they'll think that anything is better than this. (The 70's were an example - I can remember powercuts, strikes and pile of rubbish in the sreet). Thatcher certainly wasn't a steady as she goes option! Looking around I don't see that at the moment. I see people who have had things tough but are keeping their heads just above water. Most people are currently more concerned about what they might loose than they can potentially gain. I don't think the majority of people really want to rock the boat. For most people I think Corbyn will represent a gamble rather that a solid choice. I don't think that his political concerns will be synonymous on say something like welfare, with the political concerns of the quiet majority of people. At the moment I think he's being very vocally cheer led by small groups of special interest groups who make a lot of fuss and noise but who aren't terribly representative.

    We'll see...


    I think the greatest irony is that he was nominated by Frank Field - that is someone I would have thought would have made a great leader.
     
  9. Bug-Creator macrumors 6502

    Bug-Creator

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    #9
    A lot of thinks can happen till 2020, even a new much bigger financial crisis.

    "Hard left" may seem as a real alternative by then.
     
  10. juanm macrumors 65816

    juanm

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    #10
    It's sad and revealing of the drift that "Left" has been effectively termed "Hard left", even though it only asks reasonable things.
     
  11. jeremy h macrumors 6502

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    #11
    Sure, if there's an even bigger crisis then perhaps you'll be right. (The one we've had was pretty big the left didn't march into uncontested power as result)

    However the UK left is a strange beast. In a way - in past years they have tended to represent the establishment (BBC, Guardian, Social professions etc) and are often seen as such. The revolutionaries here have tended to have come from the right.
     
  12. jeremy h macrumors 6502

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    #12
    I think that's a fair point and if Corbyn shifts everything somewhat to the left across the board then that could be a good thing.
     
  13. Bug-Creator macrumors 6502

    Bug-Creator

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    #13
    Dunno bout what the left end of labour wants, only know what the "Die Linke" (former SED) wants around here, and that would spell desater for Germany if they ever get a major say on the federal level.

    Somewhat offtopic, but a while ago someone in the SPD suggested that they wouldn't need a frontrunner for the next election as it would all be about wether Angie would do a coaltion with the SPD, the FDP or even could do it on their own. While that will most likey be true, declaring defeat 2 years ahead isn't a smart move.

    Only alternative for the SPD would be a coalition with DieLinke and the greens, but not denouncing such a possibilty before the election would cost them 10% in the middle, either negating the possibility of such a coalition or even worse make them the smaller part in it....
     
  14. juanm, Sep 3, 2015
    Last edited: Jan 25, 2017

    juanm macrumors 65816

    juanm

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    #14
    That's why I mentioned France but left Die Linke out in my previous post. I agree with them on many things, but their stance is too primarily anti-US and more than vaguely pro-Russian (as opposed to Podemos, for instance, who has repeatedly criticised Putin's policies). I believe it's important that they gain traction because then they would bring a fresh breathe to the EU policies, but I wouldn't want them to take all the decisions.
    My pro-Podemos stance in Spain (I vote there) is mostly because they are the only ones willing to face the real internal problems, whereas PP and PSOE are the problem. Would they fare well in the international scene? I'm not sure. On the national scene, however, definitely yes.
     
  15. sim667 macrumors 65816

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    #15
    Firstly there's nothing wrong with being anti monarchist. The monarchy in the UK are thieving blue blooded scum.

    Secondly the UK are in a situation where their Tory chancellors are being investigated for human rights abuses, where the education and health systems have been taken back to the 60's, and where our MP's have shamelessly sold off large parts of the public sector for knock down prices to their elitist chums.

    The alternatives are new labour, who aren't left wing at all, the Green Party who are naive do gooders, and the kind dems who will never be trusted again.

    New labour is scared of Jeremy Corbyn, they've done everything they can to stop him becoming head of the Labour Party, even tony Blair, the unconvicted war criminal has spoken out against Corbyn more times in the last few months than he has against Cameron in the entirety of his premiership.
     
  16. Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #16
    While that might all well be true, the average voter will still vote for who leaves him the most of his wages after taxes.

    The left is now seen by many as the party of the people who live on other peoples money.
     
  17. juanm macrumors 65816

    juanm

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    #17
    The same kind of witch-hunt that Podemos has endured since February. That bogeyman strategy will work with a certain... "older" demographic, and have the opposite effect on the younger left voters, who like underdogs. However, it's not good press to attack someone older, and Corbyn has that advantage (that's why Podemos chose a 71yo female judge to run -successfully- for Madrid).
     
  18. juanm macrumors 65816

    juanm

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    #18
    That was before. Younger people are starting to vote for people who'll leave them not only with the most wages after taxes, but also who leave them with better education, better health services...

    It's always funny to see how the "classical liberal" Right likes touting the benefits of the free market and of the private sector, and portray the left as other people's money leeches but they still do everything they can to reach public offices to to the exact opposite of what they claim to represent. Look at Sarkozy, how long his private sector stint lasted, he's already back in the political arena.
     
  19. Peterkro macrumors 68020

    Peterkro

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    #19
    I'm not sure that Corbyn is a definite winner especially with all the crap the whole of the mainstream media is throwing at him but I do definitely know that if any of the other three muppets get the leadership the Labour party is dead,end of.The man is a Social Democrat ffs.
     
  20. Happybunny, Sep 3, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 3, 2015

    Happybunny macrumors 68000

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    #20
    Before you get a really big hissy fit, just which generation do you think built the Health Services, and the Education Departments, and all the rest of the infrastructure like housing and roads?



    I lived through the era which rebuilt Europe up from the ruins of WWII, there was a genuine spirit of we are all in this together, because we really were. There was a real spirit of working for the greater good, of working for a better future for everybody.
    If you think young people have it tough now in 2015, just think what Europe looked and felt like in 1945?
    Northern Europe was a waste land millions displaced, much of the infrastructure destroyed, manufacturing back to 1910 status.
    Nearly every family in this part of Europe had lost a least one member of their immediate family. In some parts of Europe there was a housing shortage of 72%, even the basic food requirments were in short demand.




    But that was then, people are generally far more focused on their own lives now.
     
  21. juanm, Sep 3, 2015
    Last edited: Sep 5, 2015

    juanm macrumors 65816

    juanm

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    #21
    We have it tough in a very different way. Baby boomers and 40yo+ have been surfing on that welfare wave, and good for them, but the 30yo- generations will have to face different challenges, and it'd be naive of us to think that we and the ones who'll come after us will enjoy the benefits your generation built/enjoyed. For instance, while you are a happy retiree, I know for a fact that neither me nor any of my similarly aged friends will ever get to retire with a pension. In a global economy, that spirit of "we're all in it together" simply isn't there anymore and we cannot afford to feel entitled to anything and take the welfare state for granted. The times they are a-changin and it's our duty to do our best to secure at least the basic public services, since we cannot count on the current Left (and certainly not on the Right) to not dismantle them.
     
  22. Badagri macrumors 6502

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    #22
    What a frightening thought. Labour back in power for 2020.
     
  23. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #23
    Given the Conservatives have been following Alistair Darling (L)'s budget for the past couple of years when our economy has added more jobs than the rest of Europe combined it is definitely very scary to think Labour could be back in power.

    The problem with the old Left is that they never accepted that sometimes tough love is essential. Not everyone responds well to being helped unfortunately.
     
  24. unlinked macrumors 6502a

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    #24
    Labour hasn't increased its seat count in an election since 1997. I guess that has to end eventually.
     
  25. Eraserhead macrumors G4

    Eraserhead

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    #25
    Governments that are in power usually lose seats and vote share, the Conservatives did well at the last election to increase their seat numbers and vote share (slightly) - mostly due to the collapse of the Liberal Democrat vote and the rise of the SNP in Scotland where they had no MPs anyway.
     

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