Can Trump recover from these polls?

WarHeadz

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Aug 30, 2015
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The fivethiryeight graphs are moving against him more every single hour. Some polls are showing Hillary with a 10 point national lead. Swing states like Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina are back on team Hillary and Trump currently has no path to victory. Is this election over before it ever happened?
 

nfl46

macrumors 604
Oct 5, 2008
6,912
3,981
Thank you, America! For finally realizing Donald Trump is unfit for president! Hillary - FINISH him on Sunday! I just LOVE when he makes an ass out of himself in front of 80+ million people. Donald, please bring up Bill Clinton! You've already insulted women with his "entertainment" comment...just make it worse while you are at it.
 
The fivethiryeight graphs are moving against him more every single hour. Some polls are showing Hillary with a 10 point national lead. Swing states like Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina are back on team Hillary and Trump currently has no path to victory. Is this election over before it ever happened?
I hope that doesn't become the narrative lest it encourage any less motivated voters who lean away from Trump to stay home. It ain't over until it's over.

Still, I'd be lying if I didn't say it was a relief to see.
 

aaronvan

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Dec 21, 2011
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Thank you, America! For finally realizing Donald Trump is unfit for president! Hillary - FINISH him on Sunday! I just LOVE when he makes an ass out of himself in front of 80+ million people. Donald, please bring up Bill Clinton! You've already insulted women with his "entertainment" comment...just make it worse while you are at it.
It won't be as ugly as that Stanford beatdown on Friday. :p
 

sdwaltz

macrumors 6502a
Apr 29, 2015
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RCP average shows Clinton with a 3.2% lead. Essentially within the margin of error.

Reagan was down 3-4% the day before the election in 1980. We all know what happened there. This election is 1980 on steroids.

Trump will win 35+ states.
 

WarHeadz

macrumors 6502a
Original poster
Aug 30, 2015
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Long Beach, California
Thank you, America! For finally realizing Donald Trump is unfit for president! Hillary - FINISH him on Sunday! I just LOVE when he makes an ass out of himself in front of 80+ million people. Donald, please bring up Bill Clinton! You've already insulted women with his "entertainment" comment...just make it worse while you are at it.
I read that anonymous sources in the GOP have said that if Trump fails in the second debate as hard as he failed in the first one, the party will be shifting all effort to congressional candidates and trying to preserve their majority in the senate since Trump will be a lost cause.
 

ericgtr12

macrumors 65816
Mar 19, 2015
1,237
7,291
Thank you, America! For finally realizing Donald Trump is unfit for president! Hillary - FINISH him on Sunday! I just LOVE when he makes an ass out of himself in front of 80+ million people. Donald, please bring up Bill Clinton! You've already insulted women with his "entertainment" comment...just make it worse while you are at it.
So far she's been unable to really put him away but it's nice to see the country coming to its senses. However, she should not get complacent like she did before he started gaining, where she was off the trail, not giving news conferences, etc. I'm glad to see she's staying on it this time around. As long as there's no huge October surprise for her and the voters don't take her win for granted then this should be a pretty easy win for her.
 

bent christian

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Nov 5, 2015
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RCP average shows Clinton with a 3.2% lead. Essentially within the margin of error.

Reagan was down 3-4% the day before the election in 1980. We all know what happened there. This election is 1980 on steroids.

Trump will win 35+ states.
We operate under an electoral college system for election to president. These elections are not won by a popular vote. Polling and averages can be misleading for people who don't understand how elections work in this country. Clinton is much farther ahead than simple polling suggests.
 

MadeTheSwitch

macrumors 6502a
Apr 20, 2009
832
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RCP average shows Clinton with a 3.2% lead. Essentially within the margin of error.

Reagan was down 3-4% the day before the election in 1980. We all know what happened there. This election is 1980 on steroids.

Trump will win 35+ states.
Um no. Trump is no Ronald Reagan. Not even close. I doubt Ronald Reagan would even vote for Trump. He's that bad.

You are trying to make a comparison that does not exist. Newspapers weren't bucking century long traditions and saying vote for the Democrat because Reagan was unfit for office. Additionally Reagan actually had been in office before, running one of the biggest states in the country. Trump does not have that experience and record. Also Reagan wasn't talking crap about women and minorities. He knew how to have decorum, he knew things about the world stage, and had experience. Trump has none of that.
 

5684697

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Sep 22, 2007
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Thank you, America! For finally realizing Donald Trump is unfit for president! Hillary - FINISH him on Sunday! I just LOVE when he makes an ass out of himself in front of 80+ million people. Donald, please bring up Bill Clinton! You've already insulted women with his "entertainment" comment...just make it worse while you are at it.
Trump doesn't care if he looks silly or smart, as long as he gets attention. If Hillary wins, Trump is going to light up Twitter and be on Hannity nine times a week, going ape over every thing she does. Anything for attention.

Four years of hell, no matter who wins. Is this a great country or what?
 

ericgtr12

macrumors 65816
Mar 19, 2015
1,237
7,291
We operate under an electoral college system for election to president. These elections are not won by a popular vote. Polling and averages can be misleading for people who don't understand how elections work in this country. Clinton is much farther ahead than simple polling suggests.
Exactly and by the electoral college measure FiveThirtyEight has Hillary at 323.3 and Trump at 214.5 and a 48 to 43 lead in the popular vote.
 

sdwaltz

macrumors 6502a
Apr 29, 2015
736
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Indiana
Um no. Trump is no Ronald Reagan. Not even close. I doubt Ronald Reagan would even vote for Trump. He's that bad.

You are trying to make a comparison that does not exist. Newspapers weren't bucking century long traditions and saying vote for the Democrat because Reagan was unfit for office. Additionally Reagan actually had been in office before, running one of the biggest states in the country. Trump does not have that experience and record. Also Reagan wasn't talking crap about women and minorities. He knew how to have decorum, he knew things about the world stage, and had experience. Trump has none of that.
I'm not saying Trump is Reagan. He's far from Reagan.

What I am saying is that 2016 America is much like 1980 America. Things are going bad and we need a hatchet man. Just like 1980.
 

WarHeadz

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Aug 30, 2015
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This hurricane in Florida is going to freeze the election in place for a week. Not good for Trump as he needs all the attention he can possibly get in Florida right now. If he loses that state (which he currently is and has been for most of election season) he has zero chance at the presidency.
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I'm not saying Trump is Reagan. He's far from Reagan.

What I am saying is that 2016 America is much like 1980 America. Things are going bad and we need a hatchet man. Just like 1980.
Things are nothing like 1980 right now, that's a Breitbart fed delusion. Things are going pretty well for most of us. It shows, President Obama's approval is at 55% as of today. :)
 

ibookg409

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Apr 20, 2016
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The fivethiryeight graphs are moving against him more every single hour. Some polls are showing Hillary with a 10 point national lead. Swing states like Florida, Ohio, Nevada, and North Carolina are back on team Hillary and Trump currently has no path to victory. Is this election over before it ever happened?
Is there any specific data on how they arrived at these numbers other than "aggregated from the huff post"?
 

WarHeadz

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Original poster
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Is there any specific data on how they arrived at these numbers other than "aggregated from the huff post"?
Why don't you go to their website which is posted in the link you quoted and read the answer yourself? Their model uses a wide range of polls. Your dude is a loser, just accept it.

Here's a more detailed explanation of their methods, since you probably couldn't bother to scroll down to the bottom of the page on your own. http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/a-users-guide-to-fivethirtyeights-2016-general-election-forecast/
 

ibookg409

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MadeTheSwitch

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What I am saying is that 2016 America is much like 1980 America. Things are going bad and we need a hatchet man. Just like 1980.
You'd have a point if not for the original "hatchet man's" trickle down economics which led us to where we are now. No need to double down on that plan. Rich people like Trump don't need to be made even richer at the expense of others. The only trickle down you get with such policies is what a dog does to a fire hydrant.

And it's not 1980. Demographics have changed a great deal since then, ironically in part due to Reagan's amnesty efforts. Trump cannot win without a lot of minority support. Groups which he has gone out of his way to alienate. There simply aren't enough old angry white people out there to negate the need for minority support.
 
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ibookg409

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I read the entire link buddy.
Furthermore, they don't tell you who they are calling (demographics, party affiliation, etc). They used to include that data. So presuming they call 5,000 people, if 80% of them are democrats it skews the results. the details matter (at least to those of us who think).
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You'd have a point if not for the original "hatchet man's" trickle down economics which led us to where we are now. No need to double down on that plan. Rich people like Trump don't need to be made even richer at the expense of others. The only trickle down you get with such policies is what a dog does to a fire hydrant.

And it's not 1980. Demographics have changed a great deal since then, ironically in part due to Reagan's amnesty efforts. Trump cannot win without a lot of minority support. Groups which he has gone out of his way to alienate. There simply aren't enough old angry white people out there to negate the need for minority support.
How do you assign our current situation to trickle down economics? Why not go back to the great society? Or even further back?
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I'm proud of you. Now go to the individual state polls by clicking on the states on the map. You can see the broad range of polls used. Here is Florida as of right now.
View attachment 663485
Again, without citing he demographics these polls aren't worth the paper they're printed on. It's possible those universities only polled students at the university. What if they were calling the DNC headquarters? What if they were polling people on the welfare rolls? That info matters if you want to decider these polls with any accuracy.
 

rdowns

macrumors Penryn
Jul 11, 2003
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I'm not saying Trump is Reagan. He's far from Reagan.

What I am saying is that 2016 America is much like 1980 America. Things are going bad and we need a hatchet man. Just like 1980.
2016 America is nothing like 1980 America. Voters have way more information that in 1980 and the demographics of the country are very different, for starters.