Cascadia earthquake and tsunami risk estimates increasing

Discussion in 'Politics, Religion, Social Issues' started by jnpy!$4g3cwk, Jul 25, 2015.

  1. jnpy!$4g3cwk, Jul 25, 2015
    Last edited: Jul 25, 2015

    jnpy!$4g3cwk macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

    Joined:
    Feb 11, 2010
    #1
    The news media seem finally to have noticed that recent estimates of seismic risk in Oregon and Washington have been significantly increased. Although the tone of the below New Yorker article is definitely a little hyper-ventilated, the risk it references is large:

    http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2015/07/20/the-really-big-one

    And, the reaction to the article is described here:

    http://www.oregonlive.com/pacific-n...f/2015/07/the_new_yorker_lets_cascadia_r.html

    From FEMA:

    earthquake.jpg

    http://www.community.fema.gov/inovem/sites/site1030/assets/maps/earthquake.jpg

    Is the Pacific Northwest going to replace all those unsafe bricks-and-morter buildings? Plan and build for tsunami evacuations? Put in place strong seismic standards, and, require retrofits?
     
  2. SLC Flyfishing Suspended

    SLC Flyfishing

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    #2
    It's part of the reason we moved away.
     
  3. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    República Cascadia
    #3
    We have landslides, earthquakes, volcanoes, lahars, tsunamis, and even the occasional tornado. Washington is the most geophysically interesting state in America. Plus the Devil's Lettuce is legal.
     
  4. ElectronGuru macrumors 65816

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  5. haxrnick macrumors 6502a

    haxrnick

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    #5
    We're well overdue for a Rainier explosion too.
     
  6. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #6
    With all the hype about a megathrust quake people forget that the Seattle Fault could slip any second now, sending a massive tsunami sloshing up and down Puget Sound.

    This Japanese video is nearly 30 minutes but it provides the complete tsunami experience. Even upriver, the tsunami's awesome power is terrible to behold.
     
  7. SwiftLives macrumors 65816

    SwiftLives

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    #7
    Yup. the only red dot on the east coast is pretty much centered right on Charleston. With any luck, and earthquake will hit at the same time as the next hurricane, so they'll cancel each other out. That's how it works, right?
     
  8. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    Location:
    Catskill Mountains
    #8
    It's pretty much "pick yer poison" because most places have one or another natural disaster potential. For all my thinking I'd never want to live in any of the tornado alleys of the midwestern US, I'd also not like living in an area where dishes rattling in the cupboards at breakfast time (or any time) from minor temblors is considered pretty normal. I was 14 flights up in a New York City office building early one Saturday morning when a quake caused the building to sway. I watched the ripples fade away in my coffee cup after a few seconds and thought about what it would have been like if they hadn't faded away. Life on the West Coast maybe not an option for me! I'll just stick to my piece of the mountains where the hazards are most often minor floods and the occasional straight line wind storm.
     
  9. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

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    #9
    Not to mention occasional flurries of bad jokes...

    I just got back from a pleasure trip. I took my Mother-in-law to the airport.
    My wife and I went back to the hotel where we spent our wedding night; only this time
    I stayed in the bathroom and cried.
    My wife got a mudpack at the beauty parlor. She looked great until the mud fell off.
    I tell ya, my wife is something. On our first date, I asked her if I could give her a goodnight kiss on the cheek - she lifted her skirt and bent over!

    ;)
     
  10. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

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    #10
    Interesting. I rarely get to hear jokes like that because around here guys don't tell them in mixed company unless they're drunk. How old fashioned, eh?
     
  11. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

    Joined:
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    #11
    Really? Even Borscht Belt humor is too politically incorrect that people have to be drunk before they tell an old Henny Youngman or Rodney Dangerfield joke?

    I weep for this nation.
     
  12. LizKat macrumors 68040

    LizKat

    Joined:
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    #12
    Just weep for the Catskills. They used to have Henny Youngman. Now they have casinos in the offing, and supermarket rewards in the form of scrape-off tickets to compare to selected horse races for grand prizes (and probably some shopathons or something, who knows). The old resorts are gone, new ones are held up for ages because of watershed restrictions, jobs are gone, new ones are ever on the horizon (half empty e-centers and 3/4-empty strip malls), farming is gone or largely co-opted by corporate ag, little farms that succeed (goat cheese, specialty herbs) are sought by yet more corporate buyers. Meanwhile the watershed restrictions are picked at and picked at by would-be pipeline constructors and gas drillers. I could maybe wish on some days that we still had those Borscht Belt hotels!

    But life moves on. Meanwhile the last earthquake of note I remember around here was at least six or eight years ago. My coffee sloshed and I could feel that feeling you get in your stomach during a small quake but the epicenter was way, way northeast of here. I liked that it was gone in 12 seconds and no damage to nada.

    So in my old age I'll live with the sometimes quaint and sometimes annoyingly redneck ways around here that I've learned to tolerate since having enough time to notice them. When I was only a seasonal resident I really didn't notice either the politics or the backwoods ways of some of the locals. Now that I'm one of them, I'm not fitting in all that well with about 80% of the county, probably! But I focus on the things I have in common with most of them, love of the scenery and the critters in it, and most likely a distaste for tornados and earthquakes alike.
     
  13. aaronvan Suspended

    aaronvan

    Joined:
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    #13
    Well, nothing is forever. Back to the natural disaster talk: the fact is that the New Madrid earthquakes were the largest in American history, and while we're cowering in the shadow of Rainier and the Cascadia Subduction Zone, the Bible Belt is probably most at risk, or at least has experienced the worst of the worst.
     
  14. jnpy!$4g3cwk thread starter macrumors 65816

    jnpy!$4g3cwk

    Joined:
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    #14
    There certainly is a lot of risk there, and, the worst of it is, limited seismic standards in those Bible Belt states. But then, that is also true of the Pacific Northwest. Earthquake standards save lives-- the estimate in the article for loss of life for a very big quake is similar to the Japanese quake. Right now, there is nothing to require existing buildings to meet modern seismic standards. Replacing non-historical and reinforcing historical buildings to appropriate standards will save many thousands of lives.

    Laws requiring conformance to appropriate standards are, of course, controversial due to the cost. In this case, speaking of market failures, real estate markets are particularly inefficient when dealing with intermittent/infrequent hazards like tornadoes, floods, and earthquakes.
     

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